How important is luck in a game of football?

[Wojcinski]

I've taken the liberty of creating an entirely irrelevant 2016 AFL ladder based on changing the results of all games decided by a single kick. If a game was decided by 5 points or less, the result is reversed. If decided by 6 points, the result is a draw.



Anyone who's watched football knows that there is a decent portion of luck involved in some plays, the bounce of the ball, the umpires named etc.

I thought it was interesting to see that the given percentages for each team line up more in order than on the actual 2016 ladder.

What kind of role does luck play in a game of football? Or is there no such thing as luck and do you believe any given result comes purely down to strategy and ability?

 

[Wesley2]

Why are you only applying luck to games within 5 points or less? And why are the results reversed? It's a very arbitrary system you've got here.

Also; "the umpires named"... Sneaky, sneaky

 

[blue harvest]

What if you won a close one but had more bad luck than good luck over the course of the game?

 

[SBYM]

Ooooh Port...

Unlucky.

 

[Wojcinski]

Why are you only applying luck to games within 5 points or less? And why are the results reversed? It's a very arbitrary system you've got here.

Also; "the umpires named"... Sneaky, sneaky

Just because you could say that a game decided by a single kick could very easily have been a different result, even if not at the end of the game. A good example is the Hawthorn v St Kilda 'not 15' match, or even St Kilda v Geelong and Motlop hitting the post from 2 meters out

 

[hawks787]

I've taken the liberty of creating an entirely irrelevant 2016 AFL ladder based on changing the results of all games decided by a single kick. If a game was decided by 5 points or less, the result is reversed. If decided by 6 points, the result is a draw.
View attachment 293035


Anyone who's watched football knows that there is a decent portion of luck involved in some plays, the bounce of the ball, the umpires named etc.

I thought it was interesting to see that the given percentages for each team line up more in order than on the actual 2016 ladder.

What kind of role does luck play in a game of football? Or is there no such thing as luck and do you believe any given result comes purely down to strategy and ability?

Everybody knows some luck is involved at times.
The better question would be is it random luck or do good teams create luck.
Probably could have been a better discussion had you left out " umpires named "

 

[Wojcinski]

What if you won a close one but had more bad luck than good luck over the course of the game?

Well its hard to say, I basically just reversed every result to see how it'd pan out. You're right though, I look at the Sydney vs Brisbane game for example where Sydney won by 3 points. They really outplayed Brisbane all day but the Lions had some incredibly lucky passages of play (especially given they were playing in a swamp) that kept them close.

 

[bradburygold]

Clubs make their own luck.

 

[hawks787]

Just because you could say that a game decided by a single kick could very easily have been a different result, even if not at the end of the game. A good example is the Hawthorn v St Kilda 'not 15' match, or even St Kilda v Geelong and Motlop hitting the post from 2 meters out

Or Smith kicking a goal in an elimination final to change which better teams cleaned up who in prelims, that could be lucky?

 

[hawks787]

Clubs make their own luck.

I'd agree. If clubs play their structures, be where they should on field, then a chaos ball, a deflection will go into their hands and not bounce the other way.

I'd suspect in some way this thread will discredit the grand final teams or explain prelims in some way.........eventually!

 

[Wojcinski]

I'd agree. If clubs play their structures, be where they should on field, then a chaos ball, a deflection will go into their hands and not bounce the other way.

I'd suspect in some way this thread will discredit the grand final teams or explain prelims in some way.........eventually!

Keep the tinfoil hat on, this thread was just me trying to illustrate what affect luck may have on a game of football. Especially this year with only 2 games separating 1st and 7th at the end of the H&A season. You could look through any teams close games and there would be at least half a dozen moments that ended up defining the game.

Look at Hodge's 50m penalty in the QF for example.

 

[Shiel Be Right]

I'd agree. If clubs play their structures, be where they should on field, then a chaos ball, a deflection will go into their hands and not bounce the other way.

I'd suspect in some way this thread will discredit the grand final teams or explain prelims in some way.........eventually!

Worked well for StKilda v Hawthorn playing their structures. Set up there kick out perfectly only to have the umpire change the reSult of the game. They win that as they deserved they make the 8.

 

[blue harvest]

Worked well for StKilda v Hawthorn playing their structures. Set up there kick out perfectly only to have the umpire change the reSult of the game. They win that as they deserved they make the 8.

???? there was something like 10 minutes still to play

 

[Chief]

Why are you only applying luck to games within 5 points or less? And why are the results reversed? It's a very arbitrary system you've got here.

Any hypothetical will be arbitrary. His line is "one scoring kick".

 

[Shiel Be Right]

???? there was something like 10 minutes still to play

Game was decided by 3 points and one side was gifted two goals from umpire mistakes with in minutes or is it just bad luck.

 

[gorilla92]

The importance of luck entirely depends on the closeness of the competition. A top 8 consisting of all teams of similar quality and percentage will mean that "luck" is of huge importance. A top 8 similar to that of 2007 will mean that "luck" is of complete non-importance.

 

[Wesley2]

Any hypothetical will be arbitrary. His line is "one scoring kick".

Extremely poor system as there's no reason to reverse all results if we are talking luck. If it's luck there has to be an account of the results going either way. If they are assumed to go a certain way they cease to be "luck".

 

[Chief]

Extremely poor system as there's no reason to reverse all results if we are talking luck. If it's luck there has to be an account of the results going either way. If they are assumed to go a certain way they cease to be "luck".

Then create your own alternative ladder, I suppose.

 

[blue harvest]

Game was decided by 3 points and one side was gifted two goals from umpire mistakes with in minutes or is it just bad luck.

Lol, 2 goals now in minutes.
Just checked, the 15m thing happened 9 minutes in, still over 20 min to go, we kicked 1 goal from it.

 

[Shiel Be Right]

Lol, 2 goals now in minutes.
Just checked, the 15m thing happened 9 minutes in, still over 20 min to go, we kicked 1 goal from it.

Game was decided by three and that goal was a gift from a mistake. Or was it bad luck.

 

[hawks787]

Game was decided by 3 points and one side was gifted two goals from umpire mistakes with in minutes or is it just bad luck.

Was the non 50 to the giants on saturday that's being talked about today a decision maker or just bad luck?

As for relating everything back to hawthorn, couldn't beat cats or dogs, I've said for atleast 2months they can't do it this year. Yes a missed kick may have improved it hughly but didn't happen, hypothetically I could win lotto too.
I thought GWS would win.

Swans and bulldogs deserve to be in grand final, I'm greatly amused at #freekickhawthorn and the influences it supposedly had, sorry " gifted games " when dogs are well in front on those stats............
Guess what dogs still deserve their spot because they were good enough, crazy hey!

 

[hawks787]

Keep the tinfoil hat on, this thread was just me trying to illustrate what affect luck may have on a game of football. Especially this year with only 2 games separating 1st and 7th at the end of the H&A season. You could look through any teams close games and there would be at least half a dozen moments that ended up defining the game.

Look at Hodge's 50m penalty in the QF for example.

No hats here.
I've long said hawks won't win 2016.
If only cats could beat the brown and gold umpires and get a home state prelim against an inferior interstate side.
I turned tv off at haltime friday night what happened?

 

[blue harvest]

Game was decided by three and that goal was a gift from a mistake. Or was it bad luck.

There were mistakes made earlier in the game that cost goals, just like there are in all games, but you focus on 1 mistake 9 minutes into the last quarter. Change any decision in a game and the whole game pans out differently. Nobody knows what would have happened. A Saints player missed a shot on goal at the end to win the game.

 

[Furn2]

Close games are 90% luck imo.

I think theres was a bigfooty article this year that showed this to be the case.

Basically it showed that teams that win a lot of games 1 season are more likely to win games the next season and the opposite with teams that have a losing season. However, how many games you won the previous season had no correlation how many close games you won the next season.

Over 2 hours though if you are better, you should be able to overcome any bad luck and win.

For example, I believe Hawks are 5-5 in close games over the last 2 season.

 

[Ralll]

I think in a game with teams of similar effort and talent, luck is very prominent.
A favorable bounce of the oval ball or a BS umpiring decision can easily get the momentum going one way or the other, a few in the one direction can be the difference.

Although both teams giving similar effort dosnt happen very often imo, maybe Haw vs Geel was that kind of game.
WB's effort was well above GWS's on Saturday.