Speculation Harley Reid [OOC 2026]

[bzparkes]

Doubt it.

Who are they going to overtake?

Richmond got worse in the short term over the off season just gone, not better.

Draftees take years to have a consistent impact on games and whilst it'll be good to see glimpses from them this year for Tiger fans, expecting them to win games off of 'natural improvement', when they haven't even done a full preseason is setting expectations too high, I'm afraid.

I think Lalor will be a great player, for example, but a late switch to footy from cricket + injury in the latter half of last year, means that he's coming off a very low base.

Will probably take him until at least season 3 before he starts having any kind of consistent impact on games at AFL level, same with Smillie.

Then there's just learning the game fundamentals to begin with.

Look at how good Sheezel and Wardlaw are, plus they have LDU in his prime, as well as an AA calibre ruckman in Xerri and and AA FF in Larkey yet North still only won 3 games last year.

North have had way more access to top end talent than Richmond and couldn't win more than 3 games last year and would've collected a 4th spoon in 6 years if not for Richmond capitulating through injury and form.

WCE only won 5 games last year and one of them was with 20 seconds to go(vs North), despite having an AA forward, the AA CHB and one of the strongest spines(sans ruck) in the comp and that's with Yeo and Kelly(both AA players) playing as the main mids, with the addition of Harley.

Richmond are at ground zero. Tiger supporters need to temper their expectations.

 

[tiger_tough]

Who are they going to overtake?

Richmond got worse in the short term over the off season just gone, not better.

Draftees take years to have a consistent impact on games and whilst it'll be good to see glimpses from them this year for Tiger fans, expecting them to win games off of 'natural improvement', when they haven't even done a full preseason is setting expectations too high, I'm afraid.

I think Lalor will be a great player, for example, but a late switch to footy from cricket + injury in the latter half of last year, means that he's coming off a very low base.

Will probably take him until at least season 3 before he starts having any kind of consistent impact on games at AFL level, same with Smillie.

Then there's just learning the game fundamentals to begin with.

Look at how good Sheezel and Wardlaw are, plus they have LDU in his prime, as well as an AA calibre ruckman in Xerri and and AA FF in Larkey yet North still only won 3 games last year.

North have had way more access to top end talent than Richmond and couldn't win more than 3 games last year and would've collected a 4th spoon in 6 years if not for Richmond capitulating through injury and form.

WCE only won 5 games last year and one of them was with 20 seconds to go(vs North), despite having an AA forward, the AA CHB and one of the strongest spines(sans ruck) in the comp and that's with Yeo and Kelly(both AA players) playing as the main mids, with the addition of Harley.

Richmond are at ground zero. Tiger supporters need to temper their expectations.

You have no idea what my expectations are and I'm yet to hear of a Richmond supporter that thinks we're not likely to win the spoon this year. To say any established team is a 'lock' to win at least 3 spoons in a row is stupid and dramatic.

 

[stallon]

You have no idea what my expectations are and I'm yet to hear of a Richmond supporter that thinks we're not likely to win the spoon this year. To say any established team is a 'lock' to win at least 3 spoons in a row is stupid and dramatic.

What do you think could change in the 2025 off-season that would stop the 3rd spoon in a row?
Natural development wont do it, youd need some mature recruits, and not just North style chasing Zac Fisher and Dylan Stephens.

 

[tiger_tough]

What do you think could change in the 2025 off-season that would stop the 3rd spoon in a row?
Natural development wont do it, youd need some mature recruits, and not just North style chasing Zac Fisher and Dylan Stephens.

Who knows, its a funny game. But 3 spoons in a row hasn't happened for 3 decades so to suggest it being a lock now is wishful thinking.

 

[stallon]

Who knows, its a funny game. But 3 spoons in a row hasn't happened for 3 decades so to suggest it being a lock now is wishful thinking.

Yeah calling it a lock is a little premature, but if there was odds on it those odds would be pretty short you have to admit

 

[tiger_tough]

Yeah calling it a lock is a little premature, but if there was odds on it those odds would be pretty short you have to admit

No doubt, right now, if you had to pick 1 side youd be picking us. But picking us or the field next year, youd probably pick the field. Who knows, alot can change in 12 months. If any of the other bottom 4 sides this year have an injury run like we did last year they will give 18th a shake.

Yes, we lost some quality talent but on the flipside we should also be far less complacent, fitter, less injuries, Teague gone (who clearly didn't get along with Yze), Caracella back (who has had plenty to say on the track), more familier gameplan, easier draw, Lynch back, youthful exuberance etc etc etc.

There's a giant reason we could be worse, but there is also a heap for why we could be better. I think we'll win at least the 2 games again.

 

[the big lebowski]

He just completed his first year.

When did Sheezel sign his contract again? Oh, that's right. In his second season...

For accuracies sake, sheezel and wardlaw both signed 2 year extensions in their first year, the week after their respective debuts.

Sheezel signed an extension to the extension in his second year, taking him through to 2029 or whatever it is

 

[stallon]

No doubt, right now, if you had to pick 1 side youd be picking us. But picking us or the field next year, youd probably pick the field. Who knows, alot can change in 12 months. If any of the other bottom 4 sides this year have an injury run like we did last year they will give 18th a shake.

Idk if I had to put money on a spoon winner for 2026 id pick Richmond over the field
Im not looking at it from the lens of "it just doesnt happen", I just dont see another club falling that far to where a club with 4 players in their prime, 1 of them injury prone jumps ahead.

Yes, we lost some quality talent but on the flipside we should also be far less complacent, fitter, less injuries, Teague gone (who clearly didn't get along with Yze), Caracella back (who has had plenty to say on the track), more familier gameplan, easier draw, Lynch back, youthful exuberance etc etc etc.

There's a giant reason we could be worse, but there is also a heap for why we could be better. I think we'll win at least the 2 games again.

I think youll win 1. Someone will slip up against you surely

 

[sydney_gws]

Richmond wont have pick 3 unless North finish 16th.
I dont think youve grasped how dogshit Richmond will be in 2025. It will be like West Coast of 2023 except the Tigers wont have the biggest injury list the comp has ever seen as an excuse, with some senior bodies to come back and snag a couple of wins late to make the season not a complete write-off.

That trade offer you suggested is laughably bad, but Richmond wont have 22, they traded it for Norths 1st in 2025.

I mean if Reid stays at eagles for 2026 and leaves after that. Richmond might be better in 2026, and appeal to Reid if he thinks they are going to be in premiership contention for majority of his career.
Richmond can do better as trades are 2 years in advance.
3,21 2027r1,2028r1 could be the offer for Reid, 45, 2027r3 or something like that.

 

[stallon]

I mean if Reid stays at eagles for 2026 and leaves after that. Richmond might be better in 2026, and appeal to Reid if he thinks they are going to be in premiership contention for majority of his career.
Richmond can do better as trades are 2 years in advance.

If Reid leaves he wont be going to a team thats realistically a couple of years FURTHER away from being a finals chance.
The guy wants to play in a good team and play finals, why would he want to go backwards?
Richmond will be waiting at least until their 2024 draft crop to be 23-24 before theyre any chance of winning finals, thats 5-6 years. Reid would be waiting 3+ years for success after he joins Richmond.
He would go to whichever big Melbourne club is in the window, probably Geelong who is always in the window.

I cant see him joining Richmond if he leaves. If Richmond can sign some other decent players via FA or trades to bring forward their window this year then I might think different.

3,21 2027r1,2028r1 could be the offer for Reid, 45, 2027r3 or something like that.

Even that offer is bad. 2027 and 2028 1st rounders will be worth next to **** all as thats when tassy is coming in, basically 2nd rounders.
Other clubs would move Heaven and Earth because they know they could offer more.

 

[tiger_tough]

Idk if I had to put money on a spoon winner for 2026 id pick Richmond over the field
Im not looking at it from the lens of "it just doesnt happen", I just dont see another club falling that far to where a club with 4 players in their prime, 1 of them injury prone jumps ahead.

I think youll win 1. Someone will slip up against you surely

I'm sure you didn't see Eagles dropping from 3rd in '07 to 2nd last in 2008 either, the biggest slide in history. No one did.

Which 4 players are you talking about?

We'll win more than 1.

 

[stallon]

I'm sure you didn't see Eagles dropping from 3rd in '07 to 2nd last in 2008 either, the biggest slide in history. No one did.

I mean sure if you think that'll happen again. It could happen that a team gets so many injuries/issues/players leaving that they just fall off a cliff. I think its more likely that it doesnt happen though.
Maybe youre thinking of Melbourne losing Trac, Kozzie and Clarry? Thats probably the most likely candidate but its still a long shot.

Which 4 players are you talking about?

I mean your 4 good players in their mid to late 20s, prime age.
Taranto, Balta, Hopper, Short

We'll win more than 1.

Maybe

 

[tiger_tough]

I mean sure if you think that'll happen again. It could happen that a team gets so many injuries/issues/players leaving that they just fall off a cliff. I think its more likely that it doesnt happen though.
Maybe youre thinking of Melbourne losing Trac, Kozzie and Clarry? Thats probably the most likely candidate but its still a long shot.

I mean your 4 good players in their mid to late 20s, prime age.
Taranto, Balta, Hopper, Short

Maybe

Improvement doesn't come from players already in ther prime though, it comes from the next wave.

Yes, we shall see...

 

[stallon]

Improvement doesn't come from players already in ther prime though, it comes from the next wave.

Yes, we shall see...

Thats what i mean, theyre years away still. You havent really had access to the earlier parts of the draft until 2024.

Most of your new kids are KPP who take longer, leaving just Smillie and Lalor with Hotton to join 6 months late.
You have McAuliffe and whatever but theyre no guarantees

We will see but imo youre waiting for Smillie, Lalor and Hotton to start to make the difference, which could be 2-3 years from now

 

[bzparkes]

I'm sure you didn't see Eagles dropping from 3rd in '07 to 2nd last in 2008 either, the biggest slide in history. No one did.

Which 4 players are you talking about?

We'll win more than 1.

The AFL sweeps drug issues under the rug these days and covers it up with the 'mental health' card.

Incredibly unlikely we'll ever seen an implosion the likes of WCE ever again l, although Melbourne are giving it a good shot recently.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

You have no idea what my expectations are and I'm yet to hear of a Richmond supporter that thinks we're not likely to win the spoon this year. To say any established team is a 'lock' to win at least 3 spoons in a row is stupid and dramatic.

You have 10 senior players on your list 6 of them over 30 and some very injury prone .

Not even enough to make half a team .

You lost most of your speed in Bolton Baker and rioli .

This is what norf did and look how it turned out .

 

[tiger_tough]

You have 10 senior players on your list 6 of them over 30 and some very injury prone .

Not even enough to make half a team .

You lost most of your speed in Bolton Baker and rioli .

This is what norf did and look how it turned out .

No its not.

 

[King Huskii]

Murphy Reid is a better bloke

 

[Obeanie1]

Doubt it.

You taking bets on that?

 

[tiger_tough]

You taking bets on that?

What are we thinking?

 

[Obeanie1]

You have no idea what my expectations are and I'm yet to hear of a Richmond supporter that thinks we're not likely to win the spoon this year. To say any established team is a 'lock' to win at least 3 spoons in a row is stupid and dramatic.

It's only stupid and dramatic if not backed up with reason.

Which other side will finish lower in 2025 or 2026?

Because right now Richmond are clear favourites given the hard rebuild they just commenced.

So who do you see finishing last in 2026?

 

[tiger_tough]

It's only stupid and dramatic if not backed up with reason.

Which other side will finish lower in 2025 or 2026?

Because right now Richmond are clear favourites given the hard rebuild they just commenced.

So who do you see finishing last in 2026?

Who was clear favorites last year? Certainly not us.

I gave plenty of reasons above why we could be better. Like I said if any other bottom 4 sides have an injury run like we did last year there is a fair chance they finish last.

I'm not sure why so many Eagles fans are so confident. There is still an unhealthy reliance on injury prone Yeo and a 33 year old McGovern, no Barrass, first year coach, injury prone captain etc etc.

What would you like to bet? A yearly platinum membership?

 

[stallon]

Who was clear favorites last year? Certainly not us.

I gave plenty of reasons above why we could be better. Like I said if any other bottom 4 sides have an injury run like we did last year there is a fair chance they finish last.

I'm not sure why so many Eagles fans are so confident. There is still an unhealthy reliance on injury prone Yeo and a 33 year old McGovern, no Barrass, first year coach, injury prone captain etc etc.

Our reliance is offset by a very large group of kids(half the list) who are a lot closer to ready than your Richmond draftees.
As Yeo and Kelly fall off, Reid and Hewett step up. As Gov drops off, Ginbey/Maric get better. Not suggesting theyre all 1 for 1s with the older guys, but that along with the added role player consistency from Baker and Graham with the worst players removed from the club. Theres really no reason to suggest the Eagles are going to be worse or even as bad as 2024 for a long time to come.

We have a group of 10+ guys between the age of 24 and 29 who are in the best 25 or so players at the club. Theyre not all stars but theyre role players at worst.
Only 4 players 30+, Gov is the only one we really cant cover for right now.
The rest are kids, with 7 or 8 good ones I think can be best 22 for us in 2025/2026 going into their 3rd/4th seasons.

Compared to you guys, really just 4 guys in that mid-late 20s age bracket, a bunch of 30+ guys you will have to over-rely on, and Brown+Gibcus who is incredibly injury prone your only good young talents going into their 3rd/4th years. Both Brown and Gibcus are defenders too which probably doesnt suit perfectly as your backline is probably your best part of the ground right now imo

Its the age profile of the list that gives us a little bit of confidence.

 

[WilloTree]

They all have membership numbers and pay a members fee. And get membership advantages depending on the type of membership you have.

Every club does this. Even yours. Maybe not in the wings as the Eagles I believe are the only club with a thousands of fans waiting years for a seated membership to become available.

No point having a seat if you live in London is there?

Ive been an In the Wings member for years. I live in Darwin.

So yes. Its a pretty simple concept to understand. It just doesnt apply to clubs with smaller memberships than their home stadium capacity.

Yes, so exactly as I wrote

I feel a bit for the Waiting in the Wings 'members'. Must shit them to tears watching thousands of empty seats on tele but keep paying not to go because there's apparently no empty seats.

Anywhoo, it's not a new thing fudging membership numbers. I don't even reckon it matters. Or even supporter numbers. Does anyone believe Sydney have 1.1 million supporters?

 

[briztoon]

Our reliance is offset by a very large group of kids(half the list) who are a lot closer to ready than your Richmond draftees.
As Yeo and Kelly fall off, Reid and Hewett step up. As Gov drops off, Ginbey/Maric get better. Not suggesting theyre all 1 for 1s with the older guys, but that along with the added role player consistency from Baker and Graham with the worst players removed from the club. Theres really no reason to suggest the Eagles are going to be worse or even as bad as 2024 for a long time to come.

We have a group of 10+ guys between the age of 24 and 29 who are in the best 25 or so players at the club. Theyre not all stars but theyre role players at worst.
Only 4 players 30+, Gov is the only one we really cant cover for right now.
The rest are kids, with 7 or 8 good ones I think can be best 22 for us in 2025/2026 going into their 3rd/4th seasons.

Compared to you guys, really just 4 guys in that mid-late 20s age bracket, a bunch of 30+ guys you will have to over-rely on, and Brown+Gibcus who is incredibly injury prone your only good young talents going into their 3rd/4th years. Both Brown and Gibcus are defenders too which probably doesnt suit perfectly as your backline is probably your best part of the ground right now imo

Its the age profile of the list that gives us a little bit of confidence.

Just my opinion, but WC don’t have the replacements for McGovern and Barrass on your list yet.

And you’ve only got one “proven” young mid from recent drafts in Reid.

You can’t be potting Brown and Gibcus for being injury prone, then in the next breath counting Hewett as a proven young player, when he’s been just as injury prone as the two young Richmond defenders.

Your possibly going to lose McGovern, Yeo, Kelly and Ryan over the same period as Richmond lose their senior players.

I’m sure Richmond training ground watchers talk up the likes of Sonsie, Banks and Clarke, along with Gibcus and Brown, just much as WC watchers talk up Ginbey and Maric and your other young kids.

Richmond in the space of two drafts, will have picked up more first round draftees than West Coast will have over four drafts.

They’re going to be right behind you in terms of premiership aspirations timeline.


I don’t see Tassie entering the draft as the biggest roadblock for developing teams, but rather current or soon to be top 8 teams being able to continually top up their list with high end father son or academy talent, combined with free agency acquisitions.