Preview Finals Week 1: Collingwood v Melbourne, Thursday 7 September, MCG, 7.20pm

[Scodog10]

I think he retains his spot but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if he was demoted to sub or even left out. Solely because he wasn't in our best team virtually all year and we've got 3 players coming back in.

Picked a good game to have a career best night in though!

How much weight do you put in a performance v VFL standard opposition against the totality of a season

He’ll be in the 23 at least until Naicos returns. My guess is he’ll be sub which is perfect v the Dees because if they’re on top defensively he’ll provide a spark.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Bigger question is who are you dropping to bring Beau back in because he is a automatic in the team.

Who are WE dropping?

Or who is Fly dropping?

Massive difference.

Me? I’m dropping Steele or WHE as one of those who needs to make way for the 4 coming back over the next 2 finals.

 

[danielnajdek]

Who are WE dropping?

Or who is Fly dropping?

Massive difference.

Me? I’m dropping Steele or WHE as one of those who needs to make way for the 4 coming back over the next 2 finals.

Was talking to the people who want Ginni in but we need to drop someone to bring Beau in.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Was talking to the people who want Ginni in but we need to drop someone to bring Beau in.

Can’t drop Ginni

He’s too dangerous and too smart.

I’d be dropping Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliot

 

[danielnajdek]

Can’t drop Ginni

He’s too dangerous and too smart.

I’d be dropping Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliot

Hence why I was asking them the question.

And no I wouldn't be dropping Steele. He always stands up in finals.

 

[neilk]

and what will you say on here if he is?

McRae does not count being the sub as dropping a player. We'll wait and see, but sub is in the team as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Fruit]

7 days til game time. Going to be a long week.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Mcstay should be dropped. He’s been horrible


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Yeah, NAH!!!

 

[noideaatall]

I can tell you who we are not dropping. Cox.

Fly has acknowledged the dilemna here. It is a question. Against the best ruck in the league, with a known outcome DC alone will get a bath, Cox will play.

We are not dropping Ginni. Done everything he needs to do. It would be a statement against form and performance to drop him this week.

We are not dropping WHE. They love him at the pies and his last game was good.

Can't tell who is coming in for who but if I am wrong - sub is not dropping - then feel free to ignore me.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Can’t drop Ginni

He’s too dangerous and too smart.

I’d be dropping Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliot

Are you serious mate? Big tanks on both of them. Very important in finals games.
No chance of them being dropped.
Rather drop either one of Cameron or Lipinski. Or Frampton

 

[Kirby]

7 days til game time. Going to be a long week.

I reckon it might be 8 days

 

[sr36]

I reckon it might be 8 days

He'll be right in a few hours. A man ahead of his time.

 

[Jafo]

They have no forward line and their only means of winning is keeping good opposition to under 70 points.

You do know they have a new Power forward now? 30 plus posies and 3 goals to go with. Grundy aka The Bro is a dead set cert to light up the G with a 10 goal haul in first final then 20 the next week. Watch him take the Coleman next year by 50 more goals than Curnow this year.

 

[3rdMan]

No doubt we are better placed for the upcoming game, however we still fielded 23 players and were soundly beaten even if they weren’t able to translate the dominance to the scoreboard.

They are proven finals performers.

I think they are the biggest challenge for us. We win in a close contest

We were beaten by 4 points. That's what actually happened. Projecting what might have happened if they'd kicked for goal better is irrelevant because we don't know.

 

[Fruit]

I reckon it might be 8 days

Getting ahead of myself. I’m accounting for not being able to sleep.

 

[unplugged]

4 of their behinds were also rushed behinds. We led for ten more minutes than them in the game over all.

I reckon by next Thursday I could just about convince everyone that we won on King's Birthday!

 

[MagpieJoel]

More than happy to explain why.

This guy has had more than enough opportunities to grab a game by the balls and have a decent impact on a result.

Had a major opportunity against Essendon to really show what he is capable of and didn’t.

6 goals from 7 games in finals.

As for people saying oh you want Howe to play forward. No.

Our game is built on pressure and Mcstay doesn’t provide that enough for me.

Ginnivan, hill, mcreery bring that and pace as well.

Cameron and cox can rest forward to provide another target.

And again no Howe shouldn’t play forward


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McStay is a key forward, his job isn't to pressure.

 

[magpies42]

We were beaten by 4 points. That's what actually happened. Projecting what might have happened if they'd kicked for goal better is irrelevant because we don't know.

So taking that logic they should win again because projecting what happens with change in personnel is irrelevant.

 

[3rdMan]

Some stats for the season below. If people are worried about our clearances based only on numbers, then Power are in even more trouble.

The thing to notice about most stats in the AFL is how even they are. Over the whole season many of these differences don't mean much, so simply looking at totals without context isn't very useful. We scored 48 less points than the Lions over the season, we're essentially equivalent offensively.

By the way interesting to note that Hawks had the least centre clearances in the comp.

CC: centre clearances
SC: stoppage clearances

Team	PF	PA	CC	SC
COL	4	3	9	7
BRI	2	6	1	1
POR	3	12	16	10
MEL	6	2	7	4

Edit: obviously would be better if these were differential stats but I was too lazy. I was more making a post against using simple rankings though.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Are you serious mate? Big tanks on both of them. Very important in finals games.
No chance of them being dropped.
Rather drop either one of Cameron or Lipinski. Or Frampton

Over the next 2 finals 4 have to come out

Fly has all but said we’re going with 2 rucks so Cameron won’t get dropped

Fly raves about Lipinski constantly so I doubt he gets dropped

Frampton will probably be dropped even though he needs to come back if we play Brisbane or Carlton at some point

I don’t expect Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliott to actually get dropped. It’s just who I would drop.

 

[live fast pieyoung]

Lot of people on this board selecting teams with 26 players

 

[3rdMan]

So taking that logic they should win again because projecting what happens with change in personnel is irrelevant.

No. The next game is a new occurrence, you can't assume they'd win because they won before. Same logic as I already used, you can't make an assumption over something that did not or has not happened when it's subject to unknowns.

My point on missed shots for goal is they are not fully a negative. We had trouble clearing from defence that game. Melbourne kicking a lot of behinds made it tough for us to generate scoring opportunities. Kicking points gives you a good chance to get repeat entries and scores. Despite this we only had 10 less inside 50s in the end.

Change some of those goals to points and it's hard to predict how the game would have gone. You've completely changed it. We won centre clearances 10-7 so it's possible getting the ball back to the centre could have been beneficial. You would also want to analyse how many points eventually resulted in a goal etc. There's a lot more to it than just saying they missed shots, if they kick them they win by heaps more.

 

[live fast pieyoung]

No. The next game is a new occurrence, you can't assume they'd win because they won before. Same logic as I already used, you can't make an assumption over something that did not or has not happened when it's subject to unknowns.

My point on missed shots for goal is they are not fully a negative. We had trouble clearing from defence that game. Melbourne kicking a lot of behinds made it tough for us to generate scoring opportunities. Kicking points gives you a good chance to get repeat entries and scores. Despite this we only had 10 less inside 50s in the end.

Change some of those goals to points and it's hard to predict how the game would have gone. You've completely changed it. We won centre clearances 10-7 so it's possible getting the ball back to the centre could hsve been beneficial. You would also want to analyse how many points eventually resulted in a goal etc. There's a lot more to it than just saying they missed shots, if they kick them they win by heaps more.

we got thumped on KB
forget the scoreboard
no help to us putting our head in the sand

bit we will win this time because we will play a lot better

 

[3rdMan]

we got thumped on KB
forget the scoreboard
no help to us putting our head in the sand

bit we will win this time because we will play a lot better

Thumped is taking it too far. I don't think it's possible to be thumped and only lose by 4 points.

We were outplayed, sure. We weren't dominated. We were up 9 after Q1, up 8 after Q2 (only down two scoring shots at that point) then down 6 after Q3 and lost by 4. Overall we were in front for 60 mins, Dees in front for 50.

We won centre clearances (3), uncontested ball (21), lost stoppage clearances (7) contested ball (19) and inside 50s (10).

 

[Fat Jesus]

Over the next 2 finals 4 have to come out

Fly has all but said we’re going with 2 rucks so Cameron won’t get dropped

Fly raves about Lipinski constantly so I doubt he gets dropped

Frampton will probably be dropped even though he needs to come back if we play Brisbane or Carlton at some point

I don’t expect Sidebottom or Hoskin-Elliott to actually get dropped. It’s just who I would drop.

Ok I understand it's your opinion