When the TV rights are up for renewal it's not the Pay TV side of things that the AFL will worry about. Look at the financial issues our free to air networks have. The league will do everything it can to maximise TV revenue. If we're still in downturn then they'll probably offer a 1-2 year extension to the current rights holders.
I think you'll find the opposite, with people able to download their TV shows thesedays, get their news off the internet etc etc, Live sport is the goose that lays the golden egg, its the last thing they can buy and know will get a massive audience. I expect it will top 1 billion.
Does anyone know if Channel 7s last bid rights are still going?,