Opinion Dogs and Horses - The Racing Thread

[grassman75]

There is a bloke up here on the Sunny Coast who does long range weather and financial markets. He’s a bit of a loose cannon, but he’s right more often than not - he follows cycles in the planets

He puts out his cup tips each year and this year he said anything with a 5 pointed star on the silks and the favs won’t run a place and the winner would be a 100/1 pop

4/6 over the line had the 5 pointed star on the silks and I boxed them up….Warp Speed had a bloody 5 pointed star on its cap…..

And to top it off the winner was a ****ing Sunshine Coast horse - should have had it just for the local factor

As another aside, it was definitely a day for omens - Ronan Keating sings, Irish jock wins. Second quaddie leg Carlton quinella…paid **** all in vic and Warnie went around in front of Liz Hurley and her son in the last

 

[Next Waiting]

There is a bloke up here on the Sunny Coast who does long range weather and financial markets. He’s a bit of a loose cannon, but he’s right more often than not - he follows cycles in the planets

He puts out his cup tips each year and this year he said anything with a 5 pointed star on the silks and the favs won’t run a place and the winner would be a 100/1 pop

4/6 over the line had the 5 pointed star on the silks and I boxed them up….Warp Speed had a bloody 5 pointed star on its cap…..

And to top it off the winner was a ****ing Sunshine Coast horse - should have had it just for the local factor

As another aside, it was definitely a day for omens - Ronan Keating sings, Irish jock wins. Second quaddie leg Carlton quinella…paid **** all in vic and Warnie went around in front of Liz Hurley and her son in the last

It's such a great game.

I've looked at the winners form and pedigree in retrospect, the opposition and their credentials, and even though I know it won I still wouldn't have found it. Not ever. TBH, I'm not sure how it made the field.

Handicaps!

 

[Bulldog1954]

Laxon and Symons are the trainers for the horses in my syndicate, so I had a little bet on Knights Choice My horse Winsome Star came second at the Valley on Friday and is in race 1 at Flemington on Saturday.

 

[Doggy Dan]

Buy Doge and/our BTC with anything you were about to plonk on the GG’s tomorrow. Expect Doge to hit $.50c AUD mark within 24 hours. BTC will get to $150k AUD within the week.

 

[Dogs 13]

There is a bloke up here on the Sunny Coast who does long range weather and financial markets. He’s a bit of a loose cannon, but he’s right more often than not - he follows cycles in the planets

He puts out his cup tips each year and this year he said anything with a 5 pointed star on the silks and the favs won’t run a place and the winner would be a 100/1 pop

4/6 over the line had the 5 pointed star on the silks and I boxed them up….Warp Speed had a bloody 5 pointed star on its cap…..

And to top it off the winner was a ****ing Sunshine Coast horse - should have had it just for the local factor

As another aside, it was definitely a day for omens - Ronan Keating sings, Irish jock wins. Second quaddie leg Carlton quinella…paid **** all in vic and Warnie went around in front of Liz Hurley and her son in the last

We all put in a big boxed First 4 for 15% having a pick each in the Cup. Someone, we didn’t work out who, picked the winner. Then we had 3rd, 4th, 5th and lots of other runners.

In my own first 4 I had Warp Speed, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and others.

Unfortunately the two bets didn’t meet and cross pollinate
Doesn’t matter, it only paid $732k. It’s only money.

One person backed the Cup winner. Another backed Garachico at massive odds.
Both are regular punters, not once a year novices. Still don’t know how they found them though.

By the way, how would you be backing the Catoggio & Bosustow quinella.
$38.10 I would have been livid if I had it.

 

[grassman75]

Buy Doge and/our BTC with anything you were about to plonk on the GG’s tomorrow. Expect Doge to hit $.50c AUD mark within 24 hours. BTC will get to $150k AUD within the week.

Wish it worked like that with petrol….been in the high 1.50s / low 1.60s for over a month…US election and its 2.20 now

 

[grassman75]

We all put in a big boxed First 4 for 15% having a pick each in the Cup. Someone, we didn’t work out who, picked the winner. Then we had 3rd, 4th, 5th and lots of other runners.

In my own first 4 I had Warp Speed, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and others.

Unfortunately the two bets didn’t meet and cross pollinate
Doesn’t matter, it only paid $732k. It’s only money.

One person backed the Cup winner. Another backed Garachico at massive odds.
Both are regular punters, not once a year novices. Still don’t know how they found them though.

By the way, how would you be backing the Catoggio & Bosustow quinella.
$38.10 I would have been livid if I had it.

Carlton Quinella paid over $100 in Qld….****ing Carlton nuffs

 

[grassman75]

We all put in a big boxed First 4 for 15% having a pick each in the Cup. Someone, we didn’t work out who, picked the winner. Then we had 3rd, 4th, 5th and lots of other runners.

In my own first 4 I had Warp Speed, and 3rd, 4th, 5th and others.

Unfortunately the two bets didn’t meet and cross pollinate
Doesn’t matter, it only paid $732k. It’s only money.

One person backed the Cup winner. Another backed Garachico at massive odds.
Both are regular punters, not once a year novices. Still don’t know how they found them though.

By the way, how would you be backing the Catoggio & Bosustow quinella.
$38.10 I would have been livid if I had it.

How many times do you have a bet and you get first or second and then find out your mate went the other one….and you both missed the tri

 

[bobs head soup]

Most of you have probably read this, but what about the family of 4 who have 1 bet every year - $100 on the Melb Cup

They each pick out 1 horse and take a first 4.

This is the year they jagged it and were elated with a $800k pay out, not realising they actually had over 400% of it, for a $3.2 million payout.

I had on ok day Cup day. Bombed the Cup but really liked Fancify who got me in front.

Keen on Harlem Queen in the Oaks today, that Spring Champion form reads well and the $6 looks nice.

Anyone had a look at Saturday? Those 3 Champions races are seriously stacked.

Reckon the VRC need to promote this day harder. Becoming the best race day of the year in terms of quality.

 

[grassman75]

Since no ne tipped anything here on Tuesday and i landed the Kyneton quaddie yesterday, I’ll put my balls on the line for today. Tips not in any order, just 3 or 4 trifecta selections - done pre scratching and market movers

R1 1,2,5,11
R2 1,2,4 (Spacewalk owes me this carnival, seems the outside are doing better in the straight races, so I’ll prob go again
R3 1,11,13 (flamin Romans good odds and the roughie Verifier)
R4 1,4,5 and throw in 2 - the snowdens always pull a surprise at odds at the carnival
R5 3,8,9,13
R6 4,5,12,14
R7 No tri here but playing with 5,6,7,11,16 - tough race, could be some good value
R8 Been on the 3 since before the carnival started and like the 2. Add what you like…Hurry Curry could be over the odds after being scratched on Sat after breaking Kah’s nose at the gates
R9 1,2,9,11 and roughie 14 just because of its name and its trainer is called Smiley FFS

No promises, these are just my guesses

 

[grassman75]

Most of you have probably read this, but what about the family of 4 who have 1 bet every year - $100 on the Melb Cup

They each pick out 1 horse and take a first 4.

This is the year they jagged it and were elated with a $800k pay out, not realising they actually had over 400% of it, for a $3.2 million payout.

I had on ok day Cup day. Bombed the Cup but really liked Fancify who got me in front.

Keen on Harlem Queen in the Oaks today, that Spring Champion form reads well and the $6 looks nice.

Anyone had a look at Saturday? Those 3 Champions races are seriously stacked.

Reckon the VRC need to promote this day harder. Becoming the best race day of the year in terms of quality.

Like Harlem Queen mate….Too Darn Discreet another big chance….thats my saver on HQ

 

[Next Waiting]

Most of you have probably read this, but what about the family of 4 who have 1 bet every year - $100 on the Melb Cup

They each pick out 1 horse and take a first 4.

This is the year they jagged it and were elated with a $800k pay out, not realising they actually had over 400% of it, for a $3.2 million payout.

I had on ok day Cup day. Bombed the Cup but really liked Fancify who got me in front.

Keen on Harlem Queen in the Oaks today, that Spring Champion form reads well and the $6 looks nice.

Anyone had a look at Saturday? Those 3 Champions races are seriously stacked.

Reckon the VRC need to promote this day harder. Becoming the best race day of the year in terms of quality.

It's my fav day of the 4 and the only one I tend to go to now. WFA racing is my thing and to have 1200, 1600 and 2000m at the elite level on the same day is just brilliant. The best horses at the best track vying for the champs title.

I kinda hope they don't promote it too much coz I've been able to buy a beer with relative ease, find a viewing spot at the mounting yard/parade ring and sometimes a table.

 

[grassman75]

Tough day……

 

[Dogs 13]

Tough day……

Tough Spring Carnival, it’s been a bloodbath.

 

[grassman75]

Tough Spring Carnival, it’s been a bloodbath.

Yep….got 5he Oaks Tri, the winner of R1 yesterday but got nosed out in about 6 races yesterday….not sure how that protest wasn’t upheld

 

[bobs head soup]

Yep, only had 2 bets Oaks day, both did no good.

What are people's thoughts on tomorrow? Absolute cracking raceday.

At this stage, my main bets will be R1 Angland, R4 Rey Magnerio, R6 Giga Kick, may go Antino or POJenni in the Champions Mile (wait til the yard). Also like Attrition in the feature in Sydney.

 

[Next Waiting]

Yep, only had 2 bets Oaks day, both did no good.

What are people's thoughts on tomorrow? Absolute cracking raceday.

At this stage, my main bets will be R1 Angland, R4 Rey Magnerio, R6 Giga Kick, may go Antino or POJenni in the Champions Mile (wait til the yard). Also like Attrition in the feature in Sydney.

Bellatrix Star is an interesting runner in the sprint. Its form is undeniable and there wasn't much in the closing sectionals between it and Switzerland in the Coolmore. 51.5 kgs.

The mile is a pretty good field. Could the guard change and Antino prevail. I don't think POJ has been given the best opportunity in this or the previous start and I don't blame the trainer or the jockey (the old discarded one - yeah it was all his fault).

Via Sistena's gate would probably have to not open for it not to win on her last performance....and even then it probably still gets up.

 

[bobs head soup]

Bellatrix Star is an interesting runner in the sprint. Its form is undeniable and there wasn't much in the closing sectionals between it and Switzerland in the Coolmore. 51.5 kgs.

The mile is a pretty good field. Could the guard change and Antino prevail. I don't think POJ has been given the best opportunity in this or the previous start and I don't blame the trainer or the jockey (the old discarded one - yeah it was all his fault).

Via Sistena's gate would probably have to not open for it not to win on her last performance....and even then it probably still gets up.

Bellatrix Star sure is interesting. Te Akua are amazing at identifying and outstanding filly/mare and getting them to perform consistently prep after prep - Melody Belle and Imperatriz are 2 of my absolute favourites of the last decade

I'm not sold on this crop of 3YO though. Big ask to hit a massive career peak and then back up against hardened pros like Bella, GK and co 7 days later

Love her but risking her tomorrow.

 

[Next Waiting]

Bellatrix Star sure is interesting. Te Akua are amazing at identifying and outstanding filly/mare and getting them to perform consistently prep after prep - Melody Belle and Imperatriz are 2 of my absolute favourites of the last decade

I'm not sold on this crop of 3YO though. Big ask to hit a massive career peak and then back up against hardened pros like Bella, GK and co 7 days later

Love her but risking her tomorrow.

The thing that makes me wonder is the backing her up in this grade. Te Akau are pretty good at putting the horse first (unlike some owners whose horse may or may not be abbreviated to PoJ) and yet they're taking it on. A good second in the Coolmore has already stamped its pedigree page.

A nod to the constitution, temperament and ability of the horse perhaps. I had a pretty good look at her in the tie ups before the Schillaci. Admittedly a month ago. Not much of her but in great nick. Relaxed pre race.

 

[King Harold]

For all you breeding buffs.
Who would think Extreme Choice would sire the Melb Cup winner
And Alabama Express the Oaks winner ?

 

[Next Waiting]

For all you breeding buffs.
Who would think Extreme Choice would sire the Melb Cup winner
And Alabama Express the Oaks winner ?

No.

Haven't looked at the Oaks winner in depth but there is no way I could ever have found the Cup winner on pedigree ... or form .... I'm not sure how it made the field.

What a great game it is. It's a puzzle that can never be solved.

Edit: I'd say also that the jockeys on the leading stayers continue to give less credentialled stayers the opportunity to beat them in a sprint home by not taking the initiative and forcing a genuine pace if it appears muddling. 3:19.5 is 20 lengths off Kingston Rule's race record with Protagonist not much behind KR.

Edit again. The Oaks winner is not totally out of the question with Street Cry and Saddlers Wells on the dam sires list. There is some Northern Dancer and Star Way influence through Encosta De Lago on the Alabama Express side of the equation and maybe it's enough. But I'd be lying if I said I saw the pedigree in the catalogue and concluded Oaks winner. But I'd be lying even more if I said Lasqueti Spirit could win an Oaks on pedigree. And yet she did.

 

[Next Waiting]

Roughie in the first. Could Sheila get Winsome Star up in this? She's a helluva trainer

 

[Dogs 13]

Mr B, what else can you say. Tough spring and still too good.
Cool ride from Craig. I thought he had a flat spot then hit the go button.

 

[Next Waiting]

Interesting winner of the NZ 2000 Guineas today if you like pedigrees. NZ's Caufiled Guineas equivalent, won convincingly by a Savabeel colt called Savaglee. He's won 3 group races on the trot now, 2 @ 1400m and the Grp 1 at a mile in good time ... 1:33 and change. Not a big colt by reliable reports but then neither were Northern Dancer or Dundeel. The Savabeel colts have underperformed thus far relative to their female counterparts and whilst he has a couple of sons at stud, none were champions. Good horses at best.

Anywho, here's where it gets interesting. Savaglee is out of a full sister to the dam of Orchestral (Chorus), Orchestral also being by Savabeel which means that Orchestral and Savaglee have essentially an identical pedigree. And whilst Orchestral has been disappointing this prep (maybe she doesn't like spring time coz last year wasn't much different), last Autumn she was basically unbeatable in her year winning at 1400, 1600, 2000, 2100 and 2400m in elite company. She'll be back to that next autumn is my prediction. Regardless she already has 2 Grp 1s on the page, a Derby and 2000m fillies race in Sydney.

But wait, that's not all. Both Orchestral and Savaglee are closely related to Atishu, who won the Champions Stakes last year, The Empire Rose last Saturday and ran 2nd to that freak Via Sistina today. She is also by Savabeel and her grand dam Spring is a 3/4 sister to the dams of both Orchestral and Savaglee

This is some very blue blood and a family on .

Savaglee's stud career will already be secure. You can't ignore a pedigree like that combined with his performances to date. What would confirm him as Savabeel's heir apparent would be a Grp 1 in Australia. An Australian or Randwick Guineas is desirable ... the Australian Guineas if I had to choose or knocking off the older horses in WFA at 3. It's no easy task but the rewards would be immense not only in terms of service fee but the quality of mares he's likely attract.

He's one to watch as he's likely to be influencing the breed soon enough.

 

[Next Waiting]

On another more unfortunate note, Pride of Jenni bled from both nostrils after the Champions Mile and has been retired.

I think the swear filter would go into meltdown if I was asked to describe the owner of that very brave horse.