Expansion Cronulla - Sutherland Shire

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Taper

Taper

Club Legend
Jun 9, 2023
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AFL Club
Geelong
I've seen lots of people suggest Canberra for AFL expansion.
However, I've yet to see anyone mention the Cronulla - Sutherland Shire area.

I don't think Canberra would work well because there are no beaches, and we've seen how hard it is for the Canberra Raiders to attract talent in the NRL.
It's why the Raiders coach is contracted until the end of 2029 despite having no premierships to show for his tenure after 11 completed seasons, because who else are they going to get.

We're currently seeing AFL mow down NRL in Queensland.
Soon enough we could see AFL begin to mow down NRL in NSW.
Another team in NSW would be great for the AFL, think of the extra TV money and boost to the talent pool.

Cronulla - Sutherland Shire is a good spot.
Reasons why:
  • The area has a population of over 200,000 people and the majority wouldn't follow the Swans or Giants, because neither of those clubs represent the Cronulla - Sutherland Shire area.
  • The Geelong - Surf Coast area has a smaller population than Cronulla - Sutherland Shire, and we've seen how big and successful the Cats have been and continue to be.
  • People want to live in the Cronulla - Sutherland Shire area because it's an escape from the Sydney gridlock, similar to how Geelong is an escape from the Melbourne gridlock.
  • More games in NSW means less interstate travel for the Swans and Giants, and we've seen how vocal the Swans have been about their travel burden.
  • It would help grow the game in NSW.

Thoughts?
 
I’ve lived in the Shire for 17 years. I’ve been involved in a local club here - Southern Power (Sutherland) and coached their u12s side for a couple of seasons when my daughter was playing. Numbers were encouraging there and we shared the ground with Miranda (who fielded boys and girls). Post Covid there is no longer a side in that age group due to not enough numbers (southern power girls u12s).

Whilst there is a smattering of people who follow Aussie rules it’s still league heartland. My daughter wore a Geelong guernsey (not by me encouraging either) to a mufti day here and she came home and said no-one knew who Geelong were.

Western Sydney is a multi generational move. The Shire would be similar and there’s simply not enough interest, the market isn’t sizeable enough to support an AFL team, there is no remotely adequate existing infrastructure, to even consider the idea of an AFL team being based out of here. Newcastle is exactly the same. Just look at the local tv ratings. It’s all one way.

Canberra would make a lot more sense but would still be a slow burn.
 
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Taper said:
  • The area has a population of over 200,000 people and the majority wouldn't follow the Swans or Giants, because neither of those clubs represent the Cronulla - Sutherland Shire area.
  • The Geelong - Surf Coast area has a smaller population than Cronulla - Sutherland Shire, and we've seen how big and successful the Cats have been and continue to be.
    Thoughts?
Click to expand...

  • Geelong and surf cost population is about 300,000. 50% higher than Cronulla. And the area has been rusted on AFL since its first captain, TS Wills, who was also the game's founder, pulled on the boots more than 150 years ago.
 

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I doubt the Sutherland Shire will work, however, I have been an advocste for a team down in the Ilawarra for some time now. There is a much bigger participation in Aussie rules down there.

NSW teams in the future :

GWS Giants

Sydney Swans

Northern Beaches/North Shore
(the Northern Beaches Council population forecast for 2024 is 269,850)
(in the 2016 Census, there were 77,272 people in North Shore)

Illawarra
(in the 2016 Census, there were 293,494 people in Illawarra)

Central Coast
 
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Not sure if this is a serious suggestion.The Shire can barely sustain an NRL team. It is the smallest in the comp. In an area where RL is many, many times more population than AFL, imaging how small an AFL team would be. The only positive is that GWS would not longer be the smallest club.
 
jim boy said:

  • Geelong and surf cost population is about 300,000. 50% higher than Cronulla. And the area has been rusted on AFL since its first captain, TS Wills, who was also the game's founder, pulled on the boots more than 150 years ago.
Click to expand...
Geelong population is 180,000 according to this.
20241219_202928.jpg
 
No chance whatsoever of it happening not even .0000001 chance , use to work in Kurnell for a while , thus use to drive out their , yes youve got the ocean but it was hardly a picturesque drive , going through some of those old broken down crapppy suburbs rather depressing

And i wont hold back , fwiw i reckon Cronulla - Sutherland is an overrated dump
 
Goggin Our Best said:
No chance whatsoever of it happening not even .0000001 chance , use to work in Kurnell for a while , thus use to drive out their , yes youve got the ocean but it was hardly a picturesque drive , going through some of those old broken down crapppy suburbs rather depressing

And i wont hold back , fwiw i reckon Cronulla - Sutherland is an overrated dump
Click to expand...
I lived in Geelong for 23 years. Melbourne for 5 years. I’ve lived in the Shire for 17 years and can’t see myself leaving.

They do call it God’s country. Sorry it didn’t work out for you.
 
azyboy said:
I’ve lived in the Shire for 17 years. I’ve been involved in a local club here - Southern Power (Sutherland) and coached their u12s side for a couple of seasons when my daughter was playing. Numbers were encouraging there and we shared the ground with Miranda (who fielded boys and girls). Post Covid there is no longer a side in that age group due to not enough numbers (southern power girls u12s).

Whilst there is a smattering of people who follow Aussie rules it’s still league heartland. My daughter wore a Geelong guernsey (not by me encouraging either) to a mufti day here and she came home and said no-one knew who Geelong were.

Western Sydney is a multi generational move. The Shire would be similar and there’s simply not enough interest, the market isn’t sizeable enough to support an AFL team, there is no remotely adequate existing infrastructure, to even consider the idea of an AFL team being based out of here. Newcastle is exactly the same. Just look at the local tv ratings. It’s all one way.

Canberra would make a lot more sense but would still be a slow burn.
Click to expand...

This.

It´s RL heartland and the Cronulla Sharks pull shit crowds. Imagine an AFL team.
 
If there was to be a third Sydney team, it would probably be in the south-west. Sort of like the A-League Macarthur. Liverpool/Campbelltown type region. GWS reaches there in name, but not in practice, and would be able to focus more on the Parramatta-Penrith corridor (a little short of Brisbane size in its own right).
And arguably a city the size of Sydney is spread too thin with just two teams trying to cover the promotion, school visits, etc, required for widespread growth in such a population and spread out city.
But not before team 23, imo. So quite some long way off, but still "no beaches". hardly a compelling reason to place a footy team. I reckon Gold Coast might have as beach hidden away somewhere nearby, and aren't exactly player retention heaven.
 

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Yeah, definitely. They can pick a nice name that isn't used currently in the AFL, like "Sharks".

But let's keep expanding after that. The Sharks need a more local rival than the Swans, maybe a team on the opposite bank of the Georges River. And we could keep expanding with teams in the Northern Beaches, Parramatta and Penrith.

While we're at it, the Sydney Swans need their own identity separate to South Melbourne, so they should rebrand and maybe add another colour to their guernseys.

Some Melbourne clubs should also relocate to ensure their future, and with Sydney being such a burgeoning market, ripe for expansion, they should go there too. The Western Bulldogs seem like a club that fits the blue collar culture of southwest Sydney. They'd do well somewhere around Lakemba.

And the Giants need to merge with a big Melbourne club to expand their small fanbase across the nation. How about Richmond? They'll keep the iconic Tigers name of course, and wear the Giants orange with the Tigers black.

But of course there aren't many oval fields in Sydney, and they prefer watching games on TV than going to them. So perhaps we could redesign the game to fit on a rectangular field too, and have less kicking so that viewers can appreciate where players are passing to. Maybe just once every 5-6 handballs.

Speaking of which, aren't handballs inefficient? It'd be easier to just throw the ball instead. But not everywhere, that would be too easy. It needs a restriction on it, like only being able to throw the ball backwards.

What do you reckon?
 
No more teams in Rugby territory please and thank you.

I think we'd sooner see the 21st team in the comp in Cairns (assuming NT follows Tassie into the comp in 2029).

Than again there's not even enough talent for 19 teams let alone 20+.
 
Goggin Our Best said:
No chance whatsoever of it happening not even .0000001 chance , use to work in Kurnell for a while , thus use to drive out their , yes youve got the ocean but it was hardly a picturesque drive , going through some of those old broken down crapppy suburbs rather depressing

And i wont hold back , fwiw i reckon Cronulla - Sutherland is an overrated dump
Click to expand...
Were you working at Near Kurnell or Far Kurnell?
 
Fire said:
Yeah none of the arguments make sense, and the numbers were not impressive even if they did lol. And all of Canberra's strengths are handwaved away because "there are no beaches'.
There is no way this is real.
Click to expand...
What strengths?
Ricky Stuart has spoken about difficult it is for the Canberra Raiders to attract talent.
Imagine how hard it would be for an AFL team based in Canberra to attract talent.
Gavin Excell said:
I liked AFL "mowing down" the NRL in Qld
Sure it is
Click to expand...
There is a thread on The Footy Industry board with the title of AFL overtaking NRL in QLD.
Howard Littlejohn said:
If there was to be a third Sydney team, it would probably be in the south-west. Sort of like the A-League Macarthur. Liverpool/Campbelltown type region. GWS reaches there in name, but not in practice, and would be able to focus more on the Parramatta-Penrith corridor (a little short of Brisbane size in its own right).
And arguably a city the size of Sydney is spread too thin with just two teams trying to cover the promotion, school visits, etc, required for widespread growth in such a population and spread out city.
But not before team 23, imo. So quite some long way off, but still "no beaches". hardly a compelling reason to place a footy team. I reckon Gold Coast might have as beach hidden away somewhere nearby, and aren't exactly player retention heaven.
Click to expand...
Swans are based in the South Sydney area so there is an option to put an AFL team in the area north of the harbour.
We've seen how much AFL growth in QLD has ruffled the feathers of NRL supporters so imagine if the AFL made further inroads in NSW.
 
Taper said:
What strengths?
Ricky Stuart has spoken about difficult it is for the Canberra Raiders to attract talent.
Imagine how hard it would be for an AFL team based in Canberra to attract talent.

There is a thread on The Footy Industry board with the title of AFL overtaking NRL in QLD.

Swans are based in the South Sydney area so there is an option to put an AFL team in the area north of the harbour.
We've seen how much AFL growth in QLD has ruffled the feathers of NRL supporters so imagine if the AFL made further inroads in NSW.
Click to expand...
The Swans are based in the eastern suburbs of Sydney.
 
LordLucifer said:
I doubt the Sutherland Shire will work, however, I have been an advocste for a team down in the Ilawarra for some time now. There is a much bigger participation in Aussie rules down there.

NSW teams in the future :

GWS Giants

Sydney Swans

Northern Beaches/North Shore
(the Northern Beaches Council population forecast for 2024 is 269,850)
(in the 2016 Census, there were 77,272 people in North Shore)

Illawarra
(in the 2016 Census, there were 293,494 people in Illawarra)

Central Coast
Click to expand...

A little strange to leave out Newcastle given it’s by far the biggest city (outside of Sydney) with over 500k people and growing.
 
Bunk Moreland said:
A little strange to leave out Newcastle given it’s by far the biggest city (outside of Sydney) with over 500k people and growing.
Click to expand...

I genuinely like the Newcastle option but it's a flip of the coin between that & the Central Coast, either one is good option IMO, both would be sensational.

They will be "slow burns" given the rugby league stronghold but they are winnable.
 
The whole "Canberra struggles to attract talent because there's no beach" thing is a convenient media beat up.

The Raiders, like all NRL sides outside of the metros, struggle to attract top talent because they have to pay overs to get them to leave Sydney, and SEQ to a lesser extent, and the cap equalisation methods in the NRL are totally broken.

Look at it this way; if you were settled in Sydney and you had two offers on the table, one to move to Canberra that paid $50-100k more, and another to play for a different team a suburb over that didn't require you to relocate, move the kids schools, be separated from friends and family and have to form new relationships, etc, which would you take?

The reality is that most people go for the later unless there's some other factor pressuring them to move.

It's also not just the Raiders either. The Knights, Cowboys, Titans, and NZ all struggle to attract talent from interstate as well. In fact I can't remember the last time any of them signed an established star in their prime that had other options from Sydney. Maybe when Tuivasa-Sheck went to the Warriors before going to rugby, but they only pulled that off because of his desire to return to NZ. The Storm rarely attract established talent either to be honest.

If you look back over NSWRL/NRL history the "regional" teams have only won the premiership 6 times. The core of the great Raiders teams of the 90s was built before the salary cap was introduced, and the Knights and Cowboys got lucky and stumbled on two of the greatest players of all time. Andrew Johns was a local hero and Thurston was overlooked by pretty much everybody and ended up at the Cowboys. Both of them could have had much more successful careers had they taken big money offers to move to one of the bigger teams in Sydney, Brisbane, or Melbourne, but chose to stay loyal.

There's also the Brumbies and other sports. The Brumbies are Canberra based, have little trouble attracting talent, and are the most successful Australian side in Super Rugby. If Canberra being "boring" and not having a beach was the issue it'd effect them as well, but it doesn't, and never really has.
 
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No chance of another team in Sydney for at least 30-40 years.

The crowds the Giants get in Canberra shows there's an appetite for Aussie rules in the ACT. It's not pure league/union territory due to the transient population, having plenty of ex-Victorians, South Australians and West Australians residing there at any given time.
It's the logical and viable option for a 20th side.

The only real downside is that affect that it would have on the Giants. They'd probably lose 10k members and their main source of academy talent through the ACT and Riverina.
 

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Expansion Cronulla - Sutherland Shire

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