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Cox Plate tips

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I'd say it's a 2 horse race between El segundo and and Racing to Win, they've been set for this and both are a step above these, I'd be very surprised if either of these didn't win. Miss Finland is a class act and If she can coast for the first 800 with such a light weight she'll be up there come finish. lots of good horses. should be a great race.
 
Miss Finland doesn't impress me. It hasn't run the distance, ever (not even close), and its last two starts weren't overly good (only just winning last Wednesday and being defeated by She Will Be Loved a couple of weeks before that. My real value lies in the horse that will run from barrier eight, Aqua D'more. An each-way bet sounds about right. It led with about 100 to go in the Caufield Cup, so the shorter distance will do it well. Should easily be in the top two or three at the turn.

1st: Lad Of The Manor
2nd: Aqua D'more
3rd: Racing To Win
 
kookadog said:
I'd say it's a 2 horse race between El segundo and and Racing to Win, they've been set for this and both are a step above these, I'd be very surprised if either of these didn't win. Miss Finland is a class act and If she can coast for the first 800 with such a light weight she'll be up there come finish. lots of good horses. should be a great race.
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I'm not so sure if this field is as good as previous years.
 
Our Smoking Joe in the Cox Plate....He's an honest stayer, who is best suited to the 3200m, not a wfa horse. He looks abit one-paced to me, can't see him placing.

The Lad has had a break since his pitiful last run, should be fit and ready to go.

What is everyones thoughts on Red Dazzler and Apache Cat?? Just making up the numbers?
 

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chooker said:
What is everyones thoughts on Red Dazzler and Apache Cat?? Just making up the numbers?
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Yep, surely.
 
sethlad said:
If any of you seriously want to back Miss Finland,pls PM me
Your money may as well go to a good cause.

Ill be laying her so happy to accomodate you.

seth
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Agree. Firing her in the deep end is just like Serenade Rose being fired in, she'll take a while to adjust if at all.
 
chooker said:
Our Smoking Joe in the Cox Plate....He's an honest stayer, who is best suited to the 3200m, not a wfa horse. He looks abit one-paced to me, can't see him placing.

The Lad has had a break since his pitiful last run, should be fit and ready to go.

What is everyones thoughts on Red Dazzler and Apache Cat?? Just making up the numbers?
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RD may finish top 6.

Apache Cat, don't think it's much chance.
 
Lenny* said:
Miss Finland Ill be taking E/W aswell as Aqua D'Amore E/W....

Might box tri RTW, LOM, Ms Finalnd, Aqua D'amore.
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would be suprised if Miss Finland ran a place and don't think seh can win, great horse but you have to be a superstar to win the cox plate as a filly.

my tips are - RTW and Grey Swallow, RTW knows how to win and should handle MV no worries, as for grey swallow jump on www.youtube.com and check out his wins, he is a serious horse and if he is fit enough will give it a real shake. as for a roughie ill be backing one of the on pacers because its always tough for a roughie to get up coming from behind at MV
 
gault said:
would be suprised if Miss Finland ran a place and don't think seh can win, great horse but you have to be a superstar to win the cox plate as a filly.
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I've followed her for a while, and I l reckon Hayes' stable is really on song this spring.....so its more of a love bet, than a real hunch. :thumbsu:
 
i watched the swallow on youtube and i'm impressed... i'll be on him at the cox plate (via bet fare)and hoping he storms home similar to his runs in the land of ireland. they were impressive, and lets hope barrier one suits him.
 
sethlad said:
If any of you seriously want to back Miss Finland,pls PM me
Your money may as well go to a good cause.

Ill be laying her so happy to accomodate you.

seth
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So you'll be laying 10+ to win and 3+ place?
 

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There has not been one tip for Casual Pass in this thread but that's where my money will be. It is way over the odds.

If anything beats it, I would like it to be Fields of Omagh. Great horse:thumbsu:
 
Casual Pass is a top chance. Underrated horse. It beats El Segundo by 2 lengths and yet it's $26 and El is $3.50? Huh?

I'll have a big amount on Grey Swallow, and a little on the Pass.
 
Yep,I believe she cant win & I'll be laying her based on that opinion
Not interested in place money.

Dont like Casual Pass at all,Moodie has admitted Cox Plate was an afterthought.
His goal was the C Cup & they changed their minds 2 weeks ago.
Brave horse but you cant win a Cox Plate as an afterthought IMO.

seth
 
That's just the aura of the big race. It's only a bunch of horses running around a track, like any other race. It can win.
 
I watched the footage of Grey Swallow on You Tube and it has impressed me. At $9 I think it's worth a go. RTW will be hard to beat but I feel $3.50 is a bit short? :confused:
 

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BlueZippy said:
RTW will be hard to beat but I feel $3.50 is a bit short? :confused:
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If you think it is going to be hard to beat then back it. Don't just back something else because it is better odds but a lesser chance of winning.

:cool:
 
I've barely posted here since the 2004 Cox Plate- there's heaps more people now!!

Seth, I'm with ya 100% on Miss Finland, she was the first one I put the line through earlier in the week. She got done in the Manifold (they say it was pilot error, but if she was a freak she could've held on against that lot) and then only just fell over the line in the 1000 Guineas. For a horse that has performed best when she's allowed to settle and then sprint over the top of some tiring ones, I thought it wasn't that convincing- particularly at odds on.

Now, after skipping the colts at Caulfield, she'll step up to open class, have to travel a distance I don't think she can run out, and will be competing in a full on war for 2000m in which she'll be left behind at the 600m if she tries to settle and then out sprint them. Horses that can't work themselves into a race are just no good in the Cox Plate, I don't care what weight they've got. I'm happy she's got 46kg because that means many people will be coming for her in the ring and giving me better value about something else.

I've backed Racing to Win almost every start this year (including at 20s early on for the Doncaster) but I'm jumping off now. Too many queries over a horse that's 5-2. Very questionable over the journey, I'd almost say he's an ideal 1400m horse. Untried at the track, and still hasn't had a WFA race where they grind the whole way home (maybe the only time he's had this type was when he tracked down Courts in Session and missed in the Warwick Stakes).

El Segundo is a tricky one- you can take that last rain with a grain of salt and say that he's been set for this all the way and should win. Or, you can conclude that he was just flat out disappointing at Caulfield and couldn't win the Cox Plate with that form. At the moment, I see the race having a lot of speed- they'll be pushing each other out of the way to get into that possy right behind the leaders- so El Segundo could just drop out the back and have a nice trail. However, as impressive as he's been in all his wins, I still haven't seen him sustain a sprint for more than 400-500 metres. My main concern is that he'll run out of gas when they're fighting for the line. Still a huge hope.

Of the others, Grey Swallow was at his very best 18 months ago. There's no question he can win on that ability, but it's always hard to stack up the international form. He's picked a good year to win it, but it's always a huge guess when picking these things. I'll probably include him by default.

Lad of the Manor likes the track, should possy up beautiful from the gate, will run out the trip (one of only four horses still working on last year after they all went berserk) and is probably capable of winning. Hasn't had the best year, but I thought he's run last start wasn't as bad as the paper shows- got bashed all the way up the straight and just couldn't have a crack at them.

Fields of Omagh is old now, but the particulars still look nice. I don't think he'll win a sprint-off, but if they go very early and he out stays them, he's a chance. Still, the 20-1 is probably right, despite the hype surrounding him.

At this stage I'm leaning towards El Segundo, with Grey Swallow still in the back of my mind. If it's wet and the pace is slow, I don't discount Our Smoking Joe putting in a cheeky little run (as much as it pains me to say that in a race of this ilk!). Overall, it looks to be a raffle- so good luck all!!
 
Great work Hawka. :thumbsu:


is anyone heading down to the Valley on Saturday? Im going to be down there with a couple of mates. Was told its a great meet.

Forecast says :
Saturday Becoming fine. Min 9 Max 19
Might be a bit chilly....

How big the crowd usually at the Cox Plate?
 
Lenny* said:
9 Max 19
Might be a bit chilly....

How big the crowd usually at the Cox Plate?
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Usually get a crowd of about 35,000, which isn't too bad.

I didn't go last year due to weather, but went the year before and wasn't too bad really.

I know my way around the Valley fairly well, so I know where the good places to walk are.
 
harry_hawka said:
I've backed Racing to Win almost every start this year (including at 20s early on for the Doncaster) but I'm jumping off now. Too many queries over a horse that's 5-2. Very questionable over the journey, I'd almost say he's an ideal 1400m horse.
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Mate sounds like you've done a fair bit of analysis but can you educate me on how a horse who wins arguably two Australia's two premier 1600m Group 1's over the tough Randwick mile is an ideal 1400m horse?
 
Pantsless said:
Usually get a crowd of about 35,000, which isn't too bad.

I didn't go last year due to weather, but went the year before and wasn't too bad really.

I know my way around the Valley fairly well, so I know where the good places to walk are.
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any hints on the good places champ? :p
 

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