Could this guys team really work?

[Judd_Magic]

Huh? That doesn't make sense Cotchin. You don't think it will work or you do? How can you have a midfield like that and still have good players in your forward and back half while being well balanced?

I find it hard to believe to be honest.

 

[shiva25]

Why are you so confident that Adcock is such a bargin for Robbie when alot of people are seriously having doubtrs about him?

Just curious to hear you explanation mate.

Tend to agree there on Adcock.He was ordinary in the NAB cup game against the Saints which didnt inspire much to pick him so i am staying away from him

 

[Rayzorwire]

You're comparing K Cornes to Judd in SC?

Kornes was $602K to buy at the beginning of last year ($32K more than Judd - who did have his injury problems in '07 of course). I wasn't comparing them, but obviously they've produced similar high averages.

If a 550k player averages 90 he will lose about 80k of value. If Ablett Jnr averaged 90 he would lose about 230k.

Depends when you trade. On his way down with an injury problem like Chad Cornes had, you could take your pick of most other premiums. The extra cash to get him is almost like insurance in that respect.

 

[Chief75]

If he just wants league win tell him to put an unfinished team into round 1...

Then at the end of round 3 pick the side with all the gun rookies and players who will go/down etc...

Wont this use up trades? or can you complete your team at any time without impacting trades?

 

[Will.B.Worth.Da.Waite]

Except history suggests that players just don't back up an Ablett-like season. Taking the value keepers (Judd, JB, Cornes etc) allows you to take 1 or 2 more keepers than you would be able to if you load up on Hodge, Ablett and Bartel etc, which gives you a better long term plan.

As far as I'm concerned you should be striving to get as many keepers as you can in your first 22 for Round 1. As long as they'll finish in the top 10 of their position (top 5 for rucks), I don't think you're losing anything.

The only place Ablett's price is going is down, I reckon that's just about a certainty.

Out of curiousity though, let's say Ablett scores at a rate equal to his price being 600k (I dont know what average that would require), if he stabilises at 600k, it means he's still scoring very well. Although you've lost 100k on him, you've saved yourself a trade, and you've still been getting his very good scores. If that scenario eventuated, do you still think it would be better not to start with him?

 

[trix17]

No one that I can find has backed those kinds of scores up the next year.

jimmy bartel backed up his 07 average of 124 with an average of 116 in 08, not quite at ablett's 08 standards but still proof that someone can back up a fantastic year with another one

 

[Walesy]

jimmy bartel backed up his 07 average of 124 with an average of 116 in 08, not quite at ablett's 08 standards but still proof that someone can back up a fantastic year with another one

So the closest someone has come to backing up an awesome year is by dropping 10ppg?

Abletts average is really close to Hodges back in 05... actually, it's lower that what Hodge put up.

135.3 over 21 games.

I reckon the worst case senario with Ablett would be doing the same as Hodge.

So, why did Hodge's average drop by 30?

 

[Reg Hickey]

Ablett, Harvey, Cooney and Franklin are all coming off career years and one would expect their value to go down.

That was exactly my thinking this time last year, when I decided to go with Dal Santo over Ablett.

Man, did I regret that decision by the end of May.

I think picking up Ablett from day one and simply making him captain every week is a very sound strategy, even at $712K.

Last year, if you didn't have him, you were at an instant 50+ point disadvantage against anyone who did have him. I don't intend being in that position again.

 

[Walesy]

Last year, if you didn't have him, you were at an instant 50+ point disadvantage against anyone who did have him. I don't intend being in that position again.

Tell that to the guys who got Hodge in 06...

Stop living in the past man! Pick up this years bolter! Not last years!

 

[DanA]

Tell that to the guys who got Hodge in 06...

Stop living in the past man! Pick up this years bolter! Not last years!

Agreed. Ablett is last years hero and you've got to think teams will find a way to slow him down. What will Bomber do in response, rest him forward? Play through Bartel? Give Selwood, Kelly & Chapman more game time?

Ablett's a gun and will continue to be but I bet he drops 50k in the first price change.

 

[Walesy]

Agreed. Ablett is last years hero and you've got to think teams will find a way to slow him down. What will Bomber do in response, rest him forward? Play through Bartel? Give Selwood, Kelly & Chapman more game time?

Ablett's a gun and will continue to be but I bet he drops 50k in the first price change.

The flip side though... before he got injured, he averaged 146... If he can repeat that, all the non-ablettees will have oh so much egg on their faces!

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Kornes was $602K to buy at the beginning of last year ($32K more than Judd - who did have his injury problems in '07 of course). I wasn't comparing them, but obviously they've produced similar high averages.

Kornes just isn't in the same league as Judd in SC.

Depends when you trade. On his way down with an injury problem like Chad Cornes had, you could take your pick of most other premiums. The extra cash to get him is almost like insurance in that respect.

Hmm not really, you're still losing money. Much more than say if Judd gets injured.

 

[shiva25]

Agreed. Ablett is last years hero and you've got to think teams will find a way to slow him down. What will Bomber do in response, rest him forward? Play through Bartel? Give Selwood, Kelly & Chapman more game time?

Ablett's a gun and will continue to be but I bet he drops 50k in the first price change.

Who cares if he drops 50k after the 1st price change.No one expects him to stay at his price for much of the year but your going to waste 1 maybe 2 trades to put him into your side at some stage when he drops.Its important to start with as many guns as you can and if you choose to trade him in later your probably going to trade a gun to get him which is a sideways trade that are wasted.As teams found out last year he is very hard to stop and the only thing that will stop him is injury plus you can bank on him with a bit of security that he will score well as your captain most weeks

 

[PAFCsince1870]

That was exactly my thinking this time last year, when I decided to go with Dal Santo over Ablett.

Man, did I regret that decision by the end of May.

I think picking up Ablett from day one and simply making him captain every week is a very sound strategy, even at $712K.

Last year, if you didn't have him, you were at an instant 50+ point disadvantage against anyone who did have him. I don't intend being in that position again.

This year you're paying for that advantage. An advantage that history suggests he can't maintain.

Tell that to the guys who got Hodge in 06...

Stop living in the past man! Pick up this years bolter! Not last years!

So the closest someone has come to backing up an awesome year is by dropping 10ppg?

Abletts average is really close to Hodges back in 05... actually, it's lower that what Hodge put up.

135.3 over 21 games.

I reckon the worst case senario with Ablett would be doing the same as Hodge.

So, why did Hodge's average drop by 30?

What he said.

jimmy bartel backed up his 07 average of 124 with an average of 116 in 08, not quite at ablett's 08 standards but still proof that someone can back up a fantastic year with another one

Hmm yea, not quite priced at an average of 135 though, and he still dropped 10 ppg. He also dropped in value quite a bit early on which was when a lot of people jumped on and picked him up cheap.

Out of curiousity though, let's say Ablett scores at a rate equal to his price being 600k (I dont know what average that would require), if he stabilises at 600k, it means he's still scoring very well. Although you've lost 100k on him, you've saved yourself a trade, and you've still been getting his very good scores. If that scenario eventuated, do you still think it would be better not to start with him?

Saved a trade? Not really. Just like anyone with Ablett I have my premiums, as well as the players I need to upgrade. Ablett will just be an upgrade target as opposed to another midfielder that someone already with Ablett would target.

Everyone is still trying to get 6 gun midfielders. Doesn't it make sense to get all 6 at the best possible price?

 

[DanA]

Saved a trade? Not really. Just like anyone with Ablett I have my premiums, as well as the players I need to upgrade. Ablett will just be an upgrade target as opposed to another midfielder that someone already with Ablett would target.

Everyone is still trying to get 6 gun midfielders. Doesn't it make sense to get all 6 at the best possible price?

I agree totally with the 1st paragraph but not 100% for the 2nd.
For me it is ranked:
1. durability
2. consistency
3. undervalued

Guys like Kerr are no good because despite being underpriced I have no confidence in him playing 22 and I'd rather cook a cash cow for a week longer and pick up a more expensive durable player than start games with 500k on the bench.

Guys like Fevola are slightly underpriced but no good because at some stage in the year he'll have a lean patch and I'll be able to get on him for 150k less than his current price.

 

[dmc333]

Guys like Fevola are slightly underpriced but no good because at some stage in the year he'll have a lean patch and I'll be able to get on him for 150k less than his current price.

Fevola won't drop that much, he's bipolar, but his form slumps are short term, it's usually 40 then 140 which evens him out. I don't recommend him, but he'd have to really stink it up consistently to hit 300k.

 

[DanA]

Fevola won't drop that much, he's bipolar, but his form slumps are short term, it's usually 40 then 140 which evens him out. I don't recommend him, but he'd have to really stink it up consistently to hit 300k.

You mean like last year when he scored 13, 74, 87, 62,54 and 25 all in a row. Perhaps 150K is an exageration but his price variance is a lot higher than say a Bartel or Pavlich which is the point.

 

[Fitz]

This team was interesting but I didn't really think it was anything "special'. The general rule of thumb I have seen on these boards is that you can expect to pickup 8 or 9 "gun" players (i.e. over the $500-550K range) which would cost you $4.5 -5 mill (or more in this case).

I count nine gun players here which fits with that observation.

 

[dmc333]

You mean like last year when he scored 13, 74, 87, 62,54 and 25 all in a row. Perhaps 150K is an exageration but his price variance is a lot higher than say a Bartel or Pavlich which is the point.

No question about that, but coming off a lower base any drop in price won't be a monster. The higher you sit, the more pronounced it will be, Riewoldt had a few stinkers at at the start of last year and he dropped to 420k IIRC and he started the year at about 590k.

I wonder if anyone's charted $$ changes from rd 4 to 22? Would be interesting to look through. No doubt if they have, they'd be holding it close to their chest.

 

[Impromptu]

Fevola won't drop that much, he's bipolar, but his form slumps are short term, it's usually 40 then 140 which evens him out. I don't recommend him, but he'd have to really stink it up consistently to hit 300k.

Yeh but it's fun watching Fevola...lol

Probably my favourite non-bombers player...

I'm thinking of getting Hall, Fevola in my team...and Kornes too...

I might lock it in after last nights' performance

Trickery - BTW Fevola's price doesn't normally fluctuate and he definitely won't drop to 300k..maybe $370K at worst

 

[Judd_Magic]

Yeh but it's fun watching Fevola...lol



I'm thinking of getting Hall, Fevola in my team...and Kornes too...

I might lock it in after last nights' performance

Hall injured/suspended by round 8

Kornes to do his usual 35 possessions for only 50 SC points (Clanger king).


You certainly have some balls Prompts.

 

[dazy]

The flip side though... before he got injured, he averaged 146... If he can repeat that, all the non-ablettees will have oh so much egg on their faces!

walsey do u have ablett?
and earlyier on in the thread u were guys were speaking about adcock. i was just wondering if he could get back to his form when he was playing back. now that daniel Rich is coming in it might knock jed back to the back line were he can play some good footy wats ur thoughts?
cheers fellas

 

[swansfan51]

Kornes just isn't in the same league as Judd in SC.

2005 - Cornes 2339 vs Judd 2404
2006 - 2328 vs 2504
2007 - 2559 vs 1915
2008 - 2063 vs 2309

I don't think he's that terrible.

 

[Walesy]

walsey do u have ablett?

ha!, I can't tell you that mate.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

2005 - Cornes 2339 vs Judd 2404
2006 - 2328 vs 2504
2007 - 2559 vs 1915
2008 - 2063 vs 2309

I don't think he's that terrible.

I never said he was terrible, but try comparing the averages.

I would have thought the 10-20 ppg average difference vindicates my original comment that he isn't in the same league.