I reckon you're poo
Corona virus, Port and the AFL.
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I reckon you're poo
Obviously the existence of the virus and that it spreads like wildire play a factor. However demographics and comorbidities play a huge factor, and can't be discounted. The link to the following document shows just how much: Characteristics of COVID-19 patients dying in Italy .
The report describes characteristics of 3200 COVID-19 patients dying in Italy up to March 20th.
Significantly:
- The report shows that the mean age of patients dying for COVID-2019 infection was 78.5 (median 80, range 31-103).
86% of deaths occur in those over 70.
- More significantly, chart reviews available on 481 patients who died in hospital revealed the following.
Three quarters of those who die have 2 comorbidities. Nearly half of them have 3 comorbidities. Very serious ones. Chronic, progressive ones. The 5 most common being hypertension, heart disease/condition, diabetes or chronic renal failure. Many of those who die will be elderly and/or have comorbidities.
What hasn't been discussed in this thread that I am aware of is the number of comorbidities those who die at a relatively young age have. It is more than likely that the young/younger who die have at least one comorbidity of an extremely serious nature which would likely have been life threatening in a short period of time.
Only 1.2% of those with no comorbidities died.
What isn't in this report (and lord knows it is probably because they haven't had the opportunity to investigate it yet) is a Venn diagram of sorts showing, for example, showing how many people who died in the 30-39 age group had a comorbidity which already placed their life at risk, or multiple comorbidities which would place them in a particularly fragile state to begin with.
Its not a stretch to say that someone with heart disease, diabetes or chronic renal failure, particularly those who are elderly, are going to end up in hospital in the next 3 years, and very likely in ICU. It is almost certain there will be a drop in people dying from these conditions in the next 3 years in Italy. Covid-19 results in a significant overload on our healthcare system partly because many of those that would have ended up in hospital in the next couple of years are being placed there now because of the extra strain being put on their bodies by the virus.
For those who are losing loved ones, sick elderly grandparents who are deprived time with family and grandchildren because of the significant extra strain Covid-19 puts on their already frail bodies, of course this is very sad. I speak as the son of a parent with heart disease and diabetes aged 76.
A more flexible healthcare system is required that can expand rapidly should tragic events require it, and it should not be pared down to the bone during times of 'normalcy'. Not only are we ill-prepared for pandemics, but natural disasters, significant acts of violence or terrorism etc. This needs to be addressed. We are only fortunate this pandemic results in a mildly increased morbidity rate compared to Sars, Mers etc. Covid is resulting in 10 times the deaths of a season flu or 1 in 100. Sars results in 1 in 10. Mers results in 1 in 3.
It is only a matter of time before a more lethal, highly infectious disease hits us. It may not be viral. Misuse of antibiotics in humans and animals is accelerating bacterial resistance A growing number of infections – such as pneumonia are becoming harder to treat as the antibiotics used to treat them become less effective. It is only a matter of time before an antibiotic resistant bug hits us as well.
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I agree.
Italy is also a big place and there are huge variations. I live 45 minutes from the border and the closest Italian region is Friuli (FVG). They have 2299 cases as of today (one in every 528 people). My friend lives in Emilia Romagna and they have 18677 (one in every 238) and Lombardy has 54802 (one in every 183). Demographics in these regions are very similar. The difference is the community spread. My son's girlfriend lives in FVG and her mother is a nurse. Their main hospital is swamped. Not from their patients but from patients transferred from Lombardy and Veneto. In Slovenia we have 1160 cases or one in every 1724 people and I can go for coffee in Trieste and be back for brunch. Our hospitals are fine. The army built a field hospital near Ljubljana and it has not been used. We have community spread but in discrete clusters from known sources.
It is true that it is mainly old people who have co-morbidity factors who die. I know you are not saying this, but I cannot find a position in my head that says X is the acceptable amount of old people who can die from this before we shut things down. It has to be more than 1 (unless that 1 is close to you or me of course)... 100 ? 1000 ? I don't know how to answer the question but that is the question.... what is an acceptable number above which we create a depression with all the associated health problems that go with that ?
So far, what Australia has done is great. At some point it needs to open things up and have a view on when to lock things down again or when to accept the fatalities up to a point. Hard question.
- Jun 7, 2015
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Here's a wild idea for you.
Ask everyone in SA over 75 with comorbidities that isn't already in a nursing home to relocate to Kangaroo Island for the next 6 months.
That's approximately 40k people.
Current KI population approximately 5000.
In addition, have the appropriate numbers of locals plus extras there to support these people.
Then lock the place down for 6 months.
No one else enters or leaves.
Then let everyone else go back to work.
Ask everyone in SA over 75 with comorbidities that isn't already in a nursing home to relocate to Kangaroo Island for the next 6 months.
That's approximately 40k people.
Current KI population approximately 5000.
In addition, have the appropriate numbers of locals plus extras there to support these people.
Then lock the place down for 6 months.
No one else enters or leaves.
Then let everyone else go back to work.
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- Aug 15, 2015
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That is a very silly idea.
A) where are you going to house these thousands of people?
B) are you going to build a new RAH on KI?
- Jun 7, 2015
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In my experience sometimes you have to start with a wild idea to help you get to the sensible one.
Yes 40k people on a 4k island doesn't work, but how do you protect 40k elderly people so that others can go back to business as usual at some point.
Do you get everyone over 75 to move out of Adelaide?
We could just lock the gates at 3/4 time at a crows game
- Aug 15, 2015
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In my experience sometimes you have to start with a wild idea to help you get to the sensible one.
Yes 40k people on a 4k island doesn't work, but how do you protect 40k elderly people so that others can go back to business as usual at some point.
Do you get everyone over 75 to move out of Adelaide?
We could just lock the gates at 3/4 time at a crows game
It doesn't just effect people over 75 nor are they the only ones that die.
It's going to be a gradual process of removing some restrictions, probably reinstating them again for a while when we inevitably get another spike, loosening things up again and so on for a while until we get a vaccine or most of the population have it. Which will take a very long time. I wouldn't even be confident of footy with crowds next year at this stage.
- Sep 21, 2004
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No, I steered clear of that altogether. Not just because it involves trying to put an economic value on peoples lives, but also because I we can't predict how much more effectively we will be able to treat the virus in the very near future. The WHO study into the four most likely-to-be-effective treatments using already approved drugs is expected to return data in June. Only then will we have some sort of preliminary idea what the near future might look like. That does not even include new drugs that are being developed which will take longer to become available than current treatments, but will be available before any vaccines.
It is wrong to say the future is a choice between waiting for a vaccine or whether/how much to release restrictions. How much more effectively and quickly we learn to treat a virus we have only been aware of for three and a half months and have basically been throwing darts in the dark at in terms of how to combat it, might end up being the most important factor in what the future looks like.
For example, currently one in a hundred people who contract the virus will die. If a treatment regime is found that cuts that by a third so that one in three hundred people only will die (considering that one in a thousand people will die of seasonal flu and that is WITH a vaccine) then governments are going to relax restrictions much more quickly I would think. Certainly they may structure restrictions differently so that those least at risk are allowed to return to a normal lifestyle. Then as a vaccine arrives or a completely effective treatment, things can of course return to normal.
In my experience sometimes you have to start with a wild idea to help you get to the sensible one.
Yes 40k people on a 4k island doesn't work, but how do you protect 40k elderly people so that others can go back to business as usual at some point.
Do you get everyone over 75 to move out of Adelaide?
We could just lock the gates at 3/4 time at a crows game
I think an opportunity has been missed to encourage people to exercise more, or start to exercise while they have the extra time to do so.
Notice that the common morbidities in my earlier post including hypertension, diabetes and heart disease are very often partly or wholly caused by obesity/lack of exercise. Additionally, exercise strengthens the immune system. Ultimately it would reduce the strain on our healthcare system tremendously if we could instill in people the habit of exercising in the next six months.
Part of the economic stimulus package could have included extra money for those who can prove they have been walking or jogging more, organizing paid/rubbish pickup drives or other environmental beautification programs that involve work. More funding for walking clubs to advertise their offerings or at least maintain their current programs online by organising for groups of two to walk at particular times etc. Deliver food by foot to the elderly. There are all sorts of creative ways this could have been marketed and even more creative ways to make sure risks were minimised by staggering when and where these activities took place.
Everyone loved the work for the dole scheme. EDIT 'IN PRINCIPLE' Perhaps for those who lost their jobs could be encouraged to assist with bushfire tidyup especially if they live on KI. Organise it online to keep people as distant as is recommended. I am sure there is something they could be asked to do with the extra spare time they have on their hands.
Put out free skip bins at particular locations to encourage those now at home to have a good April clean. Move the bins to different streets each week. Subsidise dumping fees. Yes I am aware that some actual thought needs to go into keeping people distanced from each other but it could be done. Subsidise plants or give out free ones to encourage people to spruce up their gardens and combat global warming.
Not to add that this will improve the mental health of those who now find themselves sitting around a house with nothing to do.
Yes these are wild ideas, that are unworkable due to the current restrictions. Some of them could have been implemented though, even in a scaled back way. Instead nothing has been done at all.
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Relocate everyone over 75 to three different ‘hubs’ where they can eat, train, sleep and play footy.
bomberclifford
Importer/Exporter
Set up an arena where anyone over the age of 75 battles to the death for our entertainment.
They're going to die anyway, may as well make them useful.
They're going to die anyway, may as well make them useful.
- Dec 31, 2013
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Can we do up their wheelchairs like Robot Wars?
- Aug 15, 2015
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I felt it was the greatest failing of medical experts everywhere to imply that only old people and those with serious health conditions get badly sick from this virus. The misconception that it is only old people is still prevalent despite evidence to suggest that otherwise healthy young and middle aged people are also ending up in ICUs. If they wanted action, selfishness trumps altruism imo.
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A few days back Australia's Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Professor Paul Kelly, referred to the COVID-19 'growth factor' in a press conference. The Link below explains what it is and why it is so important.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-data-australia-growth-factor-covid-19/12132478
When Professor Kelly was speaking he said Australia's growth factor was just above 1.00 but since then it has come down. Prof Kelly emphasised the importance of getting that figure down below 1.0 and keeping it there. He said if we can do that the epidemic will die out.
Using the official Department of Health figures as posted daily at 3.00pm , on Thursday 9th Australia's growth rate was 0.83 but it increased on Friday 10th to 1.11 which averages to 0.97 over the two days.
The article is very informative as it also highlights the link between data and the testing regimes employed. As the article explains,
A figure like this is only ever as good as the data being collected. So when reading the growth factor, there are two extra parameters to keep in mind: community transmission and testing.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-data-australia-growth-factor-covid-19/12132478
When Professor Kelly was speaking he said Australia's growth factor was just above 1.00 but since then it has come down. Prof Kelly emphasised the importance of getting that figure down below 1.0 and keeping it there. He said if we can do that the epidemic will die out.
Using the official Department of Health figures as posted daily at 3.00pm , on Thursday 9th Australia's growth rate was 0.83 but it increased on Friday 10th to 1.11 which averages to 0.97 over the two days.
The article is very informative as it also highlights the link between data and the testing regimes employed. As the article explains,
A figure like this is only ever as good as the data being collected. So when reading the growth factor, there are two extra parameters to keep in mind: community transmission and testing.
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- Jul 22, 2009
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Don‘t forget to consult with the SANFL first
- Jun 7, 2015
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It is still really annoying me that they wont release age profiles for the people admitted to ICU's.
I even specifically asked the person who provides the SA information and copped a deflect.
Unless they release this sort of info what can we assume?
DaTBird187
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- Feb 9, 2014
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Finally....a real solution.
Scientists are trying to figure why Covid-19 hits some young, healthy people hard
its a long read, but comprehensively explores risk factors as known so far, plus emerging theories. It is also somewhat US-centric.
in a nutshell, it pays to be a young, white, healthy woman to have the greatest chance to survive the disease. Also, everybody's immune system is unique and there are no guarantees how yours will react to the Covid-19 virus.
Oh and don't get diabetes or jypertension in the US. You are more likely not to be able to afford the medication that treats these conditions, and therefore far more likely to die if you do get Covid-19.
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DaTBird187
What D Farke?
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One hub can be for The Running Man, one hub for the Thunderdome and the last one for a Jugger league.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
In my experience sometimes you have to start with a wild idea to help you get to the sensible one.
Yes 40k people on a 4k island doesn't work, but how do you protect 40k elderly people so that others can go back to business as usual at some point.
Do you get everyone over 75 to move out of Adelaide?
We could just lock the gates at 3/4 time at a crows game
Unless they were losing, otherwise we'd need to lock them a fair bit earlier.
Leaveit2charlie
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- Jan 29, 2016
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Make it over 50s, Streaky Bay and until there's a vaccine. Noel's Caravans can take care of housing.
Paradoxically, this is the demographic with the highest number of infections.
- Apr 27, 2008
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Do we have to pay people to sit in the audience like robot wars (presumably)
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