Collingwood are a certainty this week

[arrowman]

Yep the 93 point win over Richmond and the 41 point win over Sydney was a huge setback after the Adelaide game.

Read again:

The stats that matter have nothing to do with the number of goals. They have to do with accuracy and scoring efficiency (per inside 50).

The Richmond game was the only one in which your scoring efficiency was close to R19 (but still slightly less). Against Sydney, your accuracy was 41% (vs 54% in R19).

Take out the Richmond game for you, and the Carlton game for us, and the story (improvement vs going backwards) remains the same - in fact it goes more in our favour.

Again, I'm not trying to make an argument that we are outright favourites - just that round 19 is nowhere near as important as some people think it is.

50-50. 50-50.

 

[MACDAICOS]

Read again:

The Richmond game was the only one in which your scoring efficiency was close to R19 (but still slightly less). Against Sydney, your accuracy was 41% (vs 54% in R19).

Take out the Richmond game for you, and the Carlton game for us, and the story (improvement vs going backwards) remains the same - in fact it goes more in our favour.

Again, I'm not trying to make an argument that we are outright favourites - just that round 19 is nowhere near as important as some people think it is.

50-50. 50-50.

50-50

 

[beev]

No certainties now

 

[dread and might]

I reckon it's more like 51-49

 

[Elite Crow]

Fantastic analysis, close thread.

But then you would have missed these points:

Change in line ups. We should have McKay, Danger, Hentschell, Burton for the full game, and possibly Bock. You will be missing Pendelbury.

Confidence, we are sky high, yours isnt after faltering against 2 top teams

Match ups, we are unlikely to let Didak run free, play Shirley on Swan in the forward line and actually kick to Shirley, play Rutten on Anthony up the ground and allow Dawes to play on the smaller Otten.

But we can all talk as much as we want, it means nothing.

i might be Captain Peanut but it seems we may have found General Peanut

so a virtual final only 5 weeks ago between essentially the same line ups that will take the field this sat night means nothing does it?? i can only hope the adel brains trust take the same view but i doubt it

You keep sprouting that but there are changes.

 

[captain peanut]

You keep sprouting that but there are changes.

ok so there are changes. but their impact will be negligible

for the pies, out goes pendlebury dawes beams in come macaffer welingham sidebottom. pendlebury obviously a loss altho he wasn't dominant that night, the other 2 balance out. so the pies weaker with no pendlebury

i see earlier that someone said burton didn't play, well in fact he did and was destroyed until he went off inj. i think hentschel replaces walker up forward this week? walker was dominated that night and it has been good to see hentschel get out there and get some easy footy and kick a few cheap goals in the last few weeks after what he went thru. but is he ready for a final against the pies defence? i doubt it

i think mackay and dangerfield are the replacements for van berlo and douglas from that game. clearly losing plenty there as van berlo is a very good player and had in the vicinity of 30 last time they played from memory

therefore as i said there is essenitally little change in personnel, certainly nothing that will impact on the result

 

[captain peanut]

You keep sprouting that but there are changes.

ok so there are changes. but their impact will be negligible

for the pies, out goes pendlebury dawes beams in come macaffer welingham sidebottom. pendlebury obviously a loss altho he wasn't dominant that night, the other 2 balance out. so the pies weaker with no pendlebury

i see earlier that someone said burton didn't play, well in fact he did and was destroyed until he went off inj. i think hentschel replaces walker up forward this week? walker was dominated that night and it has been good to see hentschel get out there and get some easy footy and kick a few cheap goals in the last few weeks after what he went thru. but is he ready for a final against the pies defence? i doubt it

i think mackay and dangerfield are the replacements for van berlo and douglas from that game. clearly losing plenty there as van berlo is a very good player and had in the vicinity of 30 last time they played from memory

therefore as i said there is essenitally little change in personnel, certainly nothing that will impact on the result

 

[ok.crows]

ok so there are changes. but their impact will be negligible

for the pies, out goes pendlebury dawes beams in come macaffer welingham sidebottom. pendlebury obviously a loss altho he wasn't dominant that night, the other 2 balance out. so the pies weaker with no pendlebury

i see earlier that someone said burton didn't play, well in fact he did and was destroyed until he went off inj. i think hentschel replaces walker up forward this week? walker was dominated that night and it has been good to see hentschel get out there and get some easy footy and kick a few cheap goals in the last few weeks after what he went thru. but is he ready for a final against the pies defence? i doubt it

i think mackay and dangerfield are the replacements for van berlo and douglas from that game. clearly losing plenty there as van berlo is a very good player and had in the vicinity of 30 last time they played from memory

therefore as i said there is essenitally little change in personnel, certainly nothing that will impact on the result

You clearly have no idea whatsoever about the change in form of the Crows since round 19.

Chalk and cheese.

The current Crows side would beat the round 19 Crows side by 10 goals at least, even if all of the same players were playing as round 19.

At round 19, the Crows efficiency and accuracy was dismal. The Crows had 57 entries into the forward 50 compared to the Pies 41, yet the Crows scored only a dismal 9 goals. Shocking efficiency.

Words like "momentum", "form" and "confidence" do have a bearing in footy.

 

[swamp13]

You clearly have no idea whatsoever about the change in form of the Crows since round 19.

Chalk and cheese.

The current Crows side would beat the round 19 Crows side by 10 goals at least, even if all of the same players were playing as round 19.

At round 19, the Crows efficiency and accuracy was dismal. The Crows had 57 entries into the forward 50 compared to the Pies 41, yet the Crows scored only a dismal 9 goals. Shocking efficiency.

Words like "momentum", "form" and "confidence" do have a bearing in footy.

agree, but a swift kick in the nuts by MM after last week has our boys frothing at the mouth and we want redemtion, and we will have it

 

[ok.crows]

agree, but a swift kick in the nuts by MM after last week has our boys frothing at the mouth and we want redemtion, and we will have it

Means nothing.

I could just as easily tell you that the Crows want redemption for two previous losses to Collingwood in finals, he Crows have the form to get that redemption, and they will have it.

 

[ok.crows]

and we will have it

http://site.despair.com/images/dpage/overconfidence03.jpg

 

[Elite Crow]

ok so there are changes. but their impact will be negligible

for the pies, out goes pendlebury dawes beams in come macaffer welingham sidebottom. pendlebury obviously a loss altho he wasn't dominant that night, the other 2 balance out. so the pies weaker with no pendlebury

i see earlier that someone said burton didn't play, well in fact he did and was destroyed until he went off inj. i think hentschel replaces walker up forward this week? walker was dominated that night and it has been good to see hentschel get out there and get some easy footy and kick a few cheap goals in the last few weeks after what he went thru. but is he ready for a final against the pies defence? i doubt it

i think mackay and dangerfield are the replacements for van berlo and douglas from that game. clearly losing plenty there as van berlo is a very good player and had in the vicinity of 30 last time they played from memory

therefore as i said there is essenitally little change in personnel, certainly nothing that will impact on the result

Firstly Beames is also a big loss for you.

Burton wasnt destroyed, before he injured himself he was very dangerous. He actually played for a quarter after he was injured. Walker was dominated, Hentschell is alot more seasoned than Walker and wont get pushed around. He also increases our flexibility by floating back, something Walker cant.

McKay is up there with VB but with better disposal. Dangers hard ball gets and forward line pressure is something we sorely missed. You wont be able to run the ball out of defence as easily.

Before you make judgements on our players worth you might want to get a clue first.

 

[Go the Guts]

Fraser out too according to The Footy Show tonight (sorry have been out and not up with the late changes) - Fraser, Rocca, Beams, Pendlebury all out from last week, that's 9 changes for them in 2 weeks? Must be very unsettling for the side and structure.

 

[Baron Winds]

i think mackay and dangerfield are the replacements for van berlo and douglas from that game. clearly losing plenty there as van berlo is a very good player and had in the vicinity of 30 last time they played from memory

Clearly shows how much you know about the crows

 

[ShirtFronter]

If Bock was playing he'd be slapping those Collingwood bitches all over the park.

 

[King_Brogan]

get him a carton of piss and fire him up

 

[Truetiger]

adelaide to win 4-5goals.

 

[tonk]

a lay-down misere

 

[cs61]

Crows for mine.

In good form, Collingwood about rough around the edges with players coming in and out.

Definitely the Pies are not a certainty, should be a great game.

 

[Stephen2]

Am so excited, can't wait till the game, this bickering just makes it even harder to wait!

Frankly, I hate Collingwood and would love to see the Crows demoralize them in this situation, and seal a straight sets exit.

I think we can all agree we're looking forward to the game, which is great.

GO CROWS!

 

[giantpie]

The OP has taken a risk and said that the Pies are certainties to win. If hes right we will think he knows his footy but if he doesnt than I dont think he will care much

Anyway I have a hunch that we will get up and win with our backs to the wall

Pies by 17 points

 

[Schooner Pig]

pies by 13 points

 

[Xtreme]

These types of threads have worked well throughout the year, funny how the footballing gods seem to want Bigfooty topic creators to have egg on their faces after their statements

** referencing many threads such as "hawthorn will make the finals and win", "x player will escape penalty", "x team will crush the team that they are playing" etc

 

[SaintsSeptember]

These types of threads have worked well throughout the year, funny how the footballing gods seem to want Bigfooty topic creators to have egg on their faces after their statements

Hmmmm I must start an "Aints will drop out at the preliminary final thread"

 

[Johnson#26]

Pies to turn it on with interest. Malthouse rarely fails to pull rabbits out of the hat. We've done the Crows in three times since 2007 when we weren't expected to. Can see it happening again.

PIES PIES PIES!
LEON DAVIS!