Speculation Clayton Oliver [UFA 2030]

[Biscut]

If Geelong pay 900kish per year of his salary then theyre just trading in a guy on a normal contract, accounting for the risk associated and the potential to go back to being a 1.3mil player.

That would require a pick that reflects that, likely close to pick 10ish of value imo.

No mate. The dees are shopping him around because they don’t want his contract or off field issues. And everyone knows he’s a long way away from his best football. If cats take on his whole contract (unlikely) we’ll get him for buggerall. The dees will take that as a win because of his issues. They get him off a horribly long and expensive contract. For example if the dees said they will pay most of his contract cats would have to give up a first.

I reckon it will be middle of the road, cats and dees pay half of his contract, dees get a second rounder for losing a player with huge issues.

 

[stallon]

Jay Clark reckons a future first gets it done, with Melbourne chipping in $200k

On motorola edge 30 pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

That lines up more or less with what I was saying. Cats paying a touch over 1mil a year for a guy with some risk

 

[sufficientintent]

You can't shop a player that has this many red flags and then expect anywhere close to full value for what he might've fetched a year or more ago

Pick 35 and maybe some pick swaps if Geelong take all of his salary, F1 if Dees retain a chunk

 

[stallon]

If Melbourne thought this year was as bad as it gets, they would be hanging on to him

Unless its just a case they have had enough of his personality/consider him too much work and want to try to fix their culture(to try to keep players in the future)

 

[stallon]

No mate. The dees are shopping him around because they don’t want his contract or off field issues. And everyone knows he’s a long way away from his best football. If cats take on his whole contract (unlikely) we’ll get him for buggerall. The dees will take that as a win because of his issues. They get him off a horribly long and expensive contract. For example if the dees said they will pay most of his contract cats would have to give up a first.

If he has a full pre-season he will be back playing very good footy. He was just unfit this year, it was clear to see.

I reckon it will be middle of the road, cats and dees pay half of his contract, dees get a second rounder for losing a player with huge issues.

LOL thats just disrespectful to the Dees. If I was the Dees id rather sit him in the VFL all year than accept that

 

[Mich0]

F1 will be nice, another top 5 pick for 2025.

 

[The_Todd07]

Unless its just a case they have had enough of his personality/consider him too much work and want to try to fix their culture(to try to keep players in the future)

If you get to that point only a year or so after thinking the guy was worth 7 years at over $1m per year, that's some serious red flags that considerably drop the value.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

2024 Oliver is likely the absolute worst case. More than likely he gets fit again and plays better. You have to take some of the risk.
900k considering risk vs reward. Worst case hes a 700k player, best case hes back to that 1.3mil player

The absolute worst case is he’s found dead in a gutter before the season starts

 

[The_Todd07]

If he has a full pre-season he will be back playing very good footy. He was just unfit this year, it was clear to see.

LOL thats just disrespectful to the Dees. If I was the Dees id rather sit him in the VFL all year than accept that

If it was just his fitness they would keep him.

They initiated the fire sale, Geelong didn't ask them first what they want for him.

Melbourne can sit him in the VFL and pay him $1m, no one will lose any sleep if they do that. Trade value will be even lower in 12 months when he asks for a trade again.

 

[stallon]

The absolute worst case is he’s found dead in a gutter before the season starts

Fair, they should be off the hook for most of his salary being in the cap youd think if that was the case

 

[stallon]

If it was just his fitness they would keep him.

They initiated the fire sale, Geelong didn't ask them first what they want for him.

Melbourne can sit him in the VFL and pay him $1m, no one will lose any sleep if they do that. Trade value will be even lower in 12 months when he asks for a trade again.

Fitness and personality. Just because Melbourne wanted to get rid of him doesnt mean they have to take scraps

 

[The_Todd07]

Fitness and personality. Just because Melbourne wanted to get rid of him doesnt mean they have to take scraps

Geelong doesn't have to pay a premium for a guy with fitness and personality issues and one of the biggest contracts in the league.

We can just walk away, Melbourne are stuck with a guy who they actively tried to get rid of and may not get back anywhere near his best

 

[stallon]

Geelong doesn't have to pay a premium for a guy with fitness and personality issues and one of the biggest contracts in the league.

We can just walk away, Melbourne are stuck with a guy who they actively tried to get rid of and may not get back anywhere near his best

Where did I suggest pay a premium?
I said paying about 900k of his contract is basically just a normal trade, no salary dump.

If you guys paid more than that then yes, its a salary dump as youre taking a guy on overs

 

[danster168]

You can't shop a player that has this many red flags and then expect anywhere close to full value for what he might've fetched a year or more ago

Pick 35 and maybe some pick swaps if Geelong take all of his salary, F1 if Dees retain a chunk

Full value is 2 early first rounders. F1 is extremely unders already.

 

[stallon]

Full value is 2 early first rounders. F1 is extremely unders already.

Exactly, people are on about Petracca being too expensive to trade out as nobody has the picks required, Oliver is worth just as much when fit

 

[danster168]

Exactly, people are on about Petracca being too expensive to trade out as nobody has the picks required, Oliver is worth just as much when fit

yeah exactly. As far as I'm concerned Petracca is more of a head case and a higher maintenance player.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

lol this whole thing bores me. No way this happens. Why would melbourne do this when we can wait until next year when clubs can offer 2 first round picks?

Another non story and mainstreamers getting caught up in trade radio lol

 

[Warhorse]

I'm looking forward to the melts when we get him for **** all

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Was more a reference that you don't have the draft capital so need to look at player capital to get the trade done (unless things are that bad with Oliver, and you should reconsider doing the trade anyway).

Although I am sure some of those players now would be thinking about where they can go to actually play AFL.

We have the draft capital because they won't get a top 20 pick for Clayton with that contract. The contract is the albatross if you could rip it up and start again then yes they would get at least one r1 for him but I doubt the afl will allow that which means he will cost a r2 at absolute best (melb might get less than that).

Your second paragraph is more relevant as Geelong fringe players might look elsewhere because of gametime not because we need currency (we dont).

 

[danster168]

I'm looking forward to the melts when we get him for **** all

...except a million dollars a year for 6 years....

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Full value is 2 early first rounders. F1 is extremely unders already.

No it's not. Clayton hasn't been worth 2 r1s since 2021.

 

[sufficientintent]

Full value is 2 early first rounders. F1 is extremely unders already.

Don’t think you read the comment you replied to - you can’t shop a guy with this many issues around and expect anywhere close to full value of two early first rounders.

If anyone thinks that Geelong (or any club) will assume all the risks, pay his full salary and part with two first round picks for the privilege they are extraordinarily naive

 

[danster168]

No it's not. Clayton hasn't been worth 2 r1s since 2021.

He was All-Australian in 2022 as well as being voted the game's best player by the AFL Coaches. Do your research before you post. Next

 

[The_Todd07]

Where did I suggest pay a premium?
I said paying about 900k of his contract is basically just a normal trade, no salary dump.

If you guys paid more than that then yes, its a salary dump as youre taking a guy on overs

Your valuation alone is a premium. This is nowhere near a normal trade

Brodie Grundy got traded to Melbourne 2 years into a 7 year big money deal, without any of the red flags for pick 33. That's with Collingwood paying a good chunk of his salary.

That's the precedent we a working with

 

[danster168]

Your valuation alone is a premium. This is nowhere near a normal trade

Brodie Grundy got traded to Melbourne 2 years into a 7 year big money deal, without any of the red flags for pick 33. That's with Collingwood paying a good chunk of his salary.

That's the precedent we a working with

You're comparing Grundy to one of the greatest mids in the game. please. Grundy is a spud and I saw that first hand when he was at the dees.