Asia China's growing influence

[sdfc]

It's an artefact of an unfinished civil war. It's literally ROC policy that the whole of the mainland belongs to them.

The ROC "claim" on mainland China is an artifact. Only one Chinese government currently has a one-China policy.

Apart from a troubled period in the late 40s Taiwan hasn't been ruled from the mainland since 1895. It's not a longstanding part of China. It's an island they annexed in the 17th century and then lost.

Australia, nor any major country recognises them as a proper state. It's inevitable that they will be unified in some respect, you want to die over this?

It's not recognised due to PRC pressure. I take it you're not a believer in the right of self determination?

 

[Carringbush2010]

They truly are brain dead and will lap up any drivel presented to them that makes daddy Trump look like their hero,

Take this for example (pretty obvious I don’t endorse this crap):



Anyone who’s sat through about 5mins of an economics lecture can see what she is saying is just utter nonsense, but they conservatives lap it up because it makes them feel good. That have been fooled to think working a $3 an hour sweatshop factory job will “make America great again”.

It’d be just laughable and hilarious if what these pond scum did to themselves didn’t spill over to have a negative effect on the global economy.

But sorry, China stupid and bad………

Could be forgiven for believing those two are youtube plants.

 

[Spearman]

It's an artefact of an unfinished civil war. It's literally ROC policy that the whole of the mainland belongs to them.

Australia, nor any major country recognises them as a proper state. It's inevitable that they will be unified in some respect, you want to die over this?

The KMT is doing the claiming. The DPP don't but won't outright say so as to not push China unnecessarily. Can't hurt their feelings.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Threatening countries is not a good idea China, as it could backfire on you.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-opposes-any-deals-between-us-other-nations-its-expense-2025-04-21/

 

[schneebly111]

Threatening countries is not a good idea China, as it could backfire on you.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-opposes-any-deals-between-us-other-nations-its-expense-2025-04-21/

They’re well within their rights to say that. If Trump forces a 3rd nation (let’s use Australia for example) to agree to a deal where we are forced to decrease trade with China to keep access to the U.S. market (and avoid getting bombed) then it’s reasonable to assume China will not as friendly towards us in the future. I think that’s reasonable.

They won’t have to because most of the world trades more with China than the US

China versus America on global trade - Lowy Institute

China has displaced the United States from its traditional dominance as a major trading partner for most countries of the world.

interactives.lowyinstitute.org

I mean who is in the USA’s court outside of North America? Suriname? Paraguay? Lithuania?

Going off that map the U.S. was always going to lose a trade war after about 2010, roughly when most economies traded more with China than the USA. Even in the last few years Europeans are abandoning US trade, and after the EU/China summit in July that’ll be accelerated.

 

[Aussie in exile]

They’re well within their rights to say that. If Trump forces a 3rd nation (let’s use Australia for example) to agree to a deal where we are forced to decrease trade with China to keep access to the U.S. market (and avoid getting bombed) then it’s reasonable to assume China will not as friendly towards us in the future. I think that’s reasonable.

They won’t have to because most of the world trades more with China than the US

China versus America on global trade - Lowy Institute

China has displaced the United States from its traditional dominance as a major trading partner for most countries of the world.

interactives.lowyinstitute.org

I mean who is in the USA’s court outside of North America? Suriname? Paraguay? Lithuania?

Going off that map the U.S. was always going to lose a trade war after about 2010, roughly when most economies traded more with China than the USA. Even in the last few years Europeans are abandoning US trade, and after the EU/China summit in July that’ll be accelerated.

For the record I'm against the USA's bullying of countries as well, as this is what this is.

 

[Mofra]

They’re well within their rights to say that. If Trump forces a 3rd nation (let’s use Australia for example) to agree to a deal where we are forced to decrease trade with China to keep access to the U.S. market (and avoid getting bombed) then it’s reasonable to assume China will not as friendly towards us in the future. I think that’s reasonable.

They won’t have to because most of the world trades more with China than the US

China versus America on global trade - Lowy Institute

China has displaced the United States from its traditional dominance as a major trading partner for most countries of the world.

interactives.lowyinstitute.org

I mean who is in the USA’s court outside of North America? Suriname? Paraguay? Lithuania?

Going off that map the U.S. was always going to lose a trade war after about 2010, roughly when most economies traded more with China than the USA. Even in the last few years Europeans are abandoning US trade, and after the EU/China summit in July that’ll be accelerated.

The Philippines. Maybe. It's a short list.

China know how to quietly press home the advantage it has. Real power whispers, it doesn't shout.

 

[schneebly111]

The Philippines. Maybe. It's a short list.

China know how to quietly press home the advantage it has. Real power whispers, it doesn't shout.

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[undefined]

Read an informative article in the Fin this morning [https://www.afr.com/world/asia/chin...has-surged-so-have-the-purges-20250327-p5ln0c]

To summarise:

China’s military build-up under Xi Jinping has reached historic levels. With a $US231 billion official defence budget in 2024 (likely 25–50% higher unofficially), China now fields the world’s largest navy (over 370 ships, targeting 435 by 2030) and is rapidly expanding its missile, nuclear, and space capabilities.

The PLA Rocket Force has built 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, alongside hundreds of medium and short-range ballistic missiles, and is developing hypersonic and orbital nuclear strike systems. Meanwhile, China has deployed 267 military satellites and built its own GPS system, giving it extraordinary surveillance and cyber warfare reach.

Xi’s explicit target: to prepare the PLA to invade Taiwan by 2027. Recent massive military exercises around Taiwan saw 135 aircraft and 38 naval ships deployed in a surrounding "cabbage" formation, while Chinese naval operations around Japan and into the Pacific have sharply intensified.

New amphibious "water bridges," capable of landing hundreds of vehicles per hour, stunned Western analysts. China's new doctrine increasingly looks like rehearsals for real conflict, not just exercises.

Yet, serious vulnerabilities remain. Over 100 senior officers have been purged for corruption, including China’s second-highest military leader. Reports of missiles filled with water instead of fuel and the rigid political commissar system — where commanders must consult Communist Party officials even during battle — threaten the PLA’s real-world effectiveness.

As global tensions rise, whether China’s military can overcome internal corruption, loyalty pressures, and rigid command structures will be decisive for the Indo-Pacific’s future stability.

 

[Aussie in exile]

China's land grab continues.

Beijing seizes tiny sandbank in South China Sea

The Philippines, which disputes China's claim to the sandbank, responds by releasing a photo of its own forces on another.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Aussie in exile]

China's land grab continues.

Beijing seizes tiny sandbank in South China Sea

The Philippines, which disputes China's claim to the sandbank, responds by releasing a photo of its own forces on another.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[barreness]

The ROC "claim" on mainland China is an artifact. Only one Chinese government currently has a one-China policy.

These two statements are incongruous. But yeh I get that the ROC claims are clearly to retain the staus quo rather than a imperialistic goal

Apart from a troubled period in the late 40s Taiwan hasn't been ruled from the mainland since 1895. It's not a longstanding part of China. It's an island they annexed in the 17th century and then lost.

This isn't true from anything I have read. Obviously as the various dynasties changed and fought each other and different sides were taken, also the colonial powers fooling around. It's been majority Han Chinese for 300+ years, obviously before the oil age regions were more autonomous

It's not recognised due to PRC pressure. I take it you're not a believer in the right of self determination?

It's overrated and naive imo, generally a good concept sure. West australians? Basque? Tamils? Crimeans?

Perhaps we should give it back to the polynesians? Joint rule from the Solomon Islands and Fiji?

 

[sdfc]

These two statements are incongruous. But yeh I get that the ROC claims are clearly to retain the staus quo rather than a imperialistic goal

This isn't true from anything I have read. Obviously as the various dynasties changed and fought each other and different sides were taken, also the colonial powers fooling around. It's been majority Han Chinese for 300+ years, obviously before the oil age regions were more autonomous

Ok so you're a fan of ethnoostates. It doesn't matter that the majority of people on Taiwan are Han Chinese, they have had a separate government and society for 70+ years.

It's overrated and naive imo, generally a good concept sure. West australians? Basque? Tamils? Crimeans?

Perhaps we should give it back to the polynesians? Joint rule from the Solomon Islands and Fiji?

Nonsense.

 

[Spearman]

So both the Ming and the Qing restricted settlement of Taiwan. The first Han basically were breaking the law going across the strait. They stayed to exploit the deer antler market. They tended to be men only so those that stayed on the island started to intermarry with the pingbu lowland indigenous Taiwanese. Then the foreign powers started setting up trading posts and towns. The Dutch were the preeminent power in the south and the Spanish in the north. The Zheng Cheng-gong defeated the Dutch and took over things. The Qing had nominal power in the western lowlands. Taiwan was very much a wild frontier, wilder than almost any US West region. Foreign incursions to various reasons were regular and as to the frontier Fujianese the saying went 'an uprising every three years, and a rebellion every five'. (I think that's how it went working with foggy memory here) Basically the 'Chinese' only controlled the flatlands and that not all the strongly. The Hakka had the foothills, and the Indigenous Taiwanese tribes ruled the rest. You can say the Chinese never ruled more than half the island until after WW2. Even then those KMT campaigners pretty much just appropriated it.
The Indigenous have been here a very long time and some tribes are thought to have connections with some of Pacific Island civilizations. Earlier waves came centuries before.
Geographically it would look like a no brainer that Taiwan is Chinese, like Okinawa is Japanese. But the reality is that those political entities have only recently had control over them.
The KMT Mainlanders are very different to the original Fujianese pioneers. And they are very different to the Indigenous Taiwanese.
**** them. The KMT are campaigners and the CCP are campaigners.

 

[schneebly111]

China's land grab continues.

Beijing seizes tiny sandbank in South China Sea

The Philippines, which disputes China's claim to the sandbank, responds by releasing a photo of its own forces on another.

www.bbc.co.uk

China’s “land grab” of a tiny sand bar they left a few hours later in an article where they admit the Philippines has landed forces on 3 neighbours sand bars?

But sorry “China bad”…….. /s

 

[schneebly111]

Again China making friends and winning influence:

California's Newsom offers 'open hand' to China amid Trump trade war

Governor calls for expanded CHIPS Act and targeted tariffs in Nikkei interview

asia.nikkei.com

https://www.livemint.com/industry/europe-and-china-want-to-be-trade-allies-this-sector-could-be-upended-11746162694246.html

More Aussie sheep meat will be sent to China as trade wars continue

China grants access to more Australian lamb and mutton as it looks for other markets during the trade war with US President Donald Trump.

www.abc.net.au

Meanwhile Trump is stealing teddy bears from US kids

 

[barreness]

Ok so you're a fan of ethnoostates. It doesn't matter that the majority of people on Taiwan are Han Chinese, they have had a separate government and society for 70+ years.

Quite the opposite as far as ethnostates, this is the world order under the US unfortunately

Nonsense.

Ok, so self determination is conditional. That's my point

 

[barreness]

So both the Ming and the Qing restricted settlement of Taiwan. The first Han basically were breaking the law going across the strait. They stayed to exploit the deer antler market. They tended to be men only so those that stayed on the island started to intermarry with the pingbu lowland indigenous Taiwanese. Then the foreign powers started setting up trading posts and towns. The Dutch were the preeminent power in the south and the Spanish in the north. The Zheng Cheng-gong defeated the Dutch and took over things. The Qing had nominal power in the western lowlands. Taiwan was very much a wild frontier, wilder than almost any US West region. Foreign incursions to various reasons were regular and as to the frontier Fujianese the saying went 'an uprising every three years, and a rebellion every five'. (I think that's how it went working with foggy memory here) Basically the 'Chinese' only controlled the flatlands and that not all the strongly. The Hakka had the foothills, and the Indigenous Taiwanese tribes ruled the rest. You can say the Chinese never ruled more than half the island until after WW2. Even then those KMT campaigners pretty much just appropriated it.

Cheers, good history

The Indigenous have been here a very long time and some tribes are thought to have connections with some of Pacific Island civilizations. Earlier waves came centuries before.

Not thought to be, genetic studies have been done. All the polynesians originate from Taiwan, with mixes afterwards

Geographically it would look like a no brainer that Taiwan is Chinese, like Okinawa is Japanese. But the reality is that those political entities have only recently had control over them.
The KMT Mainlanders are very different to the original Fujianese pioneers. And they are very different to the Indigenous Taiwanese.

Yes, the KMT that fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war was a large number though. This is where the current population mainly comes from

**** them. The KMT are campaigners and the CCP are campaigners.

Fair

 

[Spearman]

Cheers, good history

Not thought to be, genetic studies have been done. All the polynesians originate from Taiwan, with mixes afterwards

Yes, the KMT that fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war was a large number though. This is where the current population mainly comes from

Fair

The post war influx are called waishengren here. The Fujianese that were here before that are called Hoklo and are considered Taiwanese. They migrated across from mostly two townships in Fujian and are the overwhelmingly dominant ethnic group. The hakka are probably next.
The KMT members mainlanders didn't really integrate until the last generation or two. They kept to their own communities, party member only facilities, refused to learn Taiwanese, or let their children intermarry. Taiwanese language was outlawed on the airwaves, TV, in schools and dancing famously as well. Even the triads were formed along ethnic lines. Even with the advent of truly free elections, they grabbed 95% of the cable TV channels for themselves and buddies. It was colonial rule by a foreign groupl. Actually not dissimilar to the barbarian dynasties that periodically controlled China.
Probably was the 90s when things started changing. In the past 20 years, bit by bit, the mainlander veterans villages have been torn down. More young adults can speak both languages and in the past couple of elections resoundingly voted against the KMT and their bs.

I'm not up on the latest migration studies. I've heard different ones over the years. One had it that post Ice Age, different group from different parts of East Asia migrated down through SE Asia, Malaya, to Borneo, Philippines and then Taiwan. I've also heard the out of Polynesia model. There are clear differences between groups here, with some clearly not Han. Others do show some Han features, and the archaeological evidence points to different arrival waves. Interestingly they think they may have evidence of large stone workings with may be linked to the Polynesian civilization.

It's been a long time since I've thought about such stuff and am working off the top of my head, while my coffee cools.

 

[CD Xbow]

The post war influx are called waishengren here. The Fujianese that were here before that are called Hoklo and are considered Taiwanese. They migrated across from mostly two townships in Fujian and are the overwhelmingly dominant ethnic group. The hakka are probably next.
The KMT members mainlanders didn't really integrate until the last generation or two. They kept to their own communities, party member only facilities, refused to learn Taiwanese, or let their children intermarry. Taiwanese language was outlawed on the airwaves, TV, in schools and dancing famously as well. Even the triads were formed along ethnic lines. Even with the advent of truly free elections, they grabbed 95% of the cable TV channels for themselves and buddies. It was colonial rule by a foreign groupl. Actually not dissimilar to the barbarian dynasties that periodically controlled China.
Probably was the 90s when things started changing. In the past 20 years, bit by bit, the mainlander veterans villages have been torn down. More young adults can speak both languages and in the past couple of elections resoundingly voted against the KMT and their bs.

I'm not up on the latest migration studies. I've heard different ones over the years. One had it that post Ice Age, different group from different parts of East Asia migrated down through SE Asia, Malaya, to Borneo, Philippines and then Taiwan. I've also heard the out of Polynesia model. There are clear differences between groups here, with some clearly not Han. Others do show some Han features, and the archaeological evidence points to different arrival waves. Interestingly they think they may have evidence of large stone workings with may be linked to the Polynesian civilization.

It's been a long time since I've thought about such stuff and am working off the top of my head, while my coffee cools.

Thanks Spearman, interesting post. Taiwan is the original home of the Austronesian languages, which are thought to have spread from Taiwan starting more than 3000 years ago and then out to SEA and the pacific. The out of Polynesia story is rubbish, the folks from Taiwan settled Polynesia. Map below shows approximate occupation dates, note all are BC except NZ, the Maori arrival there wasn't until 1200AD. It's an amazing story of maritime dispersion/exploration.

This paper talks a bit about the genetics and the dispersal.

https://www.science.org/content/article/game-changing-study-suggests-first-polynesians-voyaged-all-way-east-asia

 

[barreness]

Thanks Spearman, interesting post. Taiwan is the original home of the Austronesian languages, which are thought to have spread from Taiwan starting more than 3000 years ago and then out to SEA and the pacific. The out of Polynesia story is rubbish, the folks from Taiwan settled Polynesia. Map below shows approximate occupation dates, note all are BC except NZ, the Maori arrival there wasn't until 1200AD. It's an amazing story of maritime dispersion/exploration.
View attachment 2307943
This paper talks a bit about the genetics and the dispersal.

https://www.science.org/content/article/game-changing-study-suggests-first-polynesians-voyaged-all-way-east-asia

It is a truly fascinating story, mad navigators. And why ignore Australia? Not island, no good, too big

 

[Mofra]

Real time evidence of the narrowing technology has between Chinese military assets and western assets (although other sources suggest India adopted a stupidity risky tactical profile).

https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/?utm_source=reddit.com

 

[CarnTheScray]

Anyone who thinks China is leagues behind the west/US in technology hasn’t been paying attention.

Anyone here who has worked in China or had parts of their business in China will tell you that they are so close to being on our level (or if you ask me, so far ahead of us) that it isn’t funny.

 

[schneebly111]

Anyone who thinks China is leagues behind the west/US in technology hasn’t been paying attention.

Anyone here who has worked in China or had parts of their business in China will tell you that they are so close to being on our level (or if you ask me, so far ahead of us) that it isn’t funny.

BYD ahead of Tesla, COMAC ahead of Boeing, Oppo/Vivo/Xiomi ahead of Apple, DeepSeek ahead of ChatGPT, DJI ahead of nothing.

China has won the race already.

 

[sdfc]

Quite the opposite as far as ethnostates, this is the world order under the US unfortunately

You're either excusing or advocating for a hostile takeover and one of your reasons was that they are Han.

Ok, so self determination is conditional. That's my point

The ROC already has self determination. Why are you so keen on excusing the PRC's threatening behaviour in their efforts to take it away.