Will it be like their previous build back in 2011 where they top out at SF / PF finals before falling away again?
Carlton are the one to watch out for - They can win The Premiership
- Thread starter PowerfulPies2023
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Seems quite hyperbolic to say that all of my posts are about injuries when that simply is not the case. Once again injuries are not an excuse for any single performance. But this thread is about whether Carlton can win a premiership is it not? So clearly looking at the broader factors is important and our inability to build any sort of cohesion now is going to hurt us later in the season when we want to be hitting top form.
Stop saying the injuries are manageable because most of our spine hasn't missed significant numbers of game (except Weitering/McGovern/Cerra ofc) - it shows a complete lack of understanding of how AFL works. If all you need is most of your spine to win games then Carlton would be going for their fourth premiership in a row. This isn't the NBA with five players on the court - you need 90% of your 22 playing at a high level. To do that you need cohesion with most of those players playing together and you need to have strong depth underneath putting pressure on those not performing in the 1s. We are unable to do that which hurts our chances of a premiership overall.
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Inconsistent effort/pressure within games would be the biggest one.
I'm not writing them off, but they need to be careful not to drop more than 1 of their next 4 against GC, Port, Essendon and Geelong. It's a real season defining stretch, which they are right in the middle of.
If they win all 4, (as I think they should), they should be well entrenched in the top 4., and will hopefully start getting a few back from injury moving forward.
If they win all 4, (as I think they should), they should be well entrenched in the top 4., and will hopefully start getting a few back from injury moving forward.
Geelong and Carlton are at a similar cross roads for season 2024 now. With fairly similar sort of runs coming up.
Close to must win home game against talent-filled expansion team next week.
Geelong get their relief game early (Richmond) when Carlton travel to play Port. However then the Cats face the road trip of death to the SCG.
They then both play Essendon and each other.
Finally Carlton get the relief game against Richmond
You'd think 3-2 is needed for either side to still have hopes of top 4. If Essendon hold of both of them you can probably pencil them in for top 4 instead.
I have said this before but Carlton's team is more suited to tough slogs in August/September than to winning routinely across the regular season. The combination of constent but vanilla contested mids, dominant tall forwards and a pressure/tackle game that builds repeat entries works well when everyone is up and the game is tight... but a lack of good downhill skiers (in the best sense - i don't think i can even name a Carlton player who has had a handball receive in the goalsquare this year) and a tight game plan makes rounds 5-15 a slog.
This is as much a problem for us as the opposite has been for teams like Port, because it seems like such a battle just to get to finals, and inevitably we will be fighting for our lives in August and with too much to do in September, a la 2023.
It also leaves us really vulnerable to luck. Couple of close losses cost us finals 2022. Form slump in 2023 meant we needed 11 wins in 12 games just to get to finals, and two more slogs just to earn an away preliminary final. A bad batch of injuries combined with a tough fixture now means we probably need to dig deep for something special/exceptional just to make finals this year.
I still think that if this team were at 'normal' strength (not full strength, but with a normal level of injuries) and had a top 4 finish we would be as good a chance as anyone to win the GF from there. But getting there... still too much work to do
This is as much a problem for us as the opposite has been for teams like Port, because it seems like such a battle just to get to finals, and inevitably we will be fighting for our lives in August and with too much to do in September, a la 2023.
It also leaves us really vulnerable to luck. Couple of close losses cost us finals 2022. Form slump in 2023 meant we needed 11 wins in 12 games just to get to finals, and two more slogs just to earn an away preliminary final. A bad batch of injuries combined with a tough fixture now means we probably need to dig deep for something special/exceptional just to make finals this year.
I still think that if this team were at 'normal' strength (not full strength, but with a normal level of injuries) and had a top 4 finish we would be as good a chance as anyone to win the GF from there. But getting there... still too much work to do
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Could easily see them going 0-4
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what if they go 1 - 3 ?
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No one will argue that the best Carlton brings is as good as anyone, they played in a preliminary final last year with a very similar squad.
I think they will chug along and make finals but as ive been reminded, its what happens in September that matters and I think they have the capabilities to do some damage.
I think they will chug along and make finals but as ive been reminded, its what happens in September that matters and I think they have the capabilities to do some damage.
PowerfulPies2023
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One game, big deal. A massive overreaction. Still have a great chance to win the flag and let's not forget Sydney were beaten by Richmond on Easter Sunday. It happens.
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File this with OP's other stunning predictions of Hawthorn making finals and Mitch Lewis becoming the next 'BIG THING'. Not a great track record it must be said.
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They’ve lost 3 of their last 4, it’s not just one game?
Nah, this has been coming for a while now.
A few wins to paper over the major deficiencies of the list have made some people think we are better than we really are.
Madas
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The over reliance on Curnow is borderline abuse of the poor guy
Needs shoulders like Charles Atlas to carry the whole team
Carlton need to find a way to get more team involved in scoring ( same as Freo )
But in all honesty most of them looked pretty soft out there last night , if they want to go deep in September they need to harden up collectively
Needs shoulders like Charles Atlas to carry the whole team
Carlton need to find a way to get more team involved in scoring ( same as Freo )
But in all honesty most of them looked pretty soft out there last night , if they want to go deep in September they need to harden up collectively
Yep starting to look that way. A lot needs to go right to be a genuine flag threat and not much has so far, injuries yeah but besides that we look a pretty different team than we did late last year, especially defensively. 52 to 24 tackles or whatever it was at halftime last night, and losing both the final tackle and disposal counts by 20 odd says it all, usually a pretty good indicator that you haven’t turned up for a game. I think the hunger and effort can rightly start to be questioned.
Now Weitering looking like he might miss a few which will completely sink us, the 1 bloke on the list we just can’t cover in any capacity. I think we probably still make the bottom half of the 8 but barring a surge along similar lines as last year I wouldn’t be expecting much in September.
We ‘should’ beat Port away, Essendon and Geelong? Potentially without Weitering for the Port game?
Where you getting that from? Can’t be on exposed form.
magpie_marty
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Stunned the Blues looked 10 goal winners after the first 20 mins,
What went wrong to change the game?
What went wrong to change the game?
Kobe Gryant
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Probably.
A bit like 2011, they've likely got a 2-3 year window after this season to win a flag with this group.
With the state of the competition right now, I actually believe they can do it, but it won't be this year.
The only club you could bet a large sum of money on with any confidence that they'll be around the mark for the next 3 years is the Swans. I don't think we've seen it look like this in a long time.
So in that respect, it's not an indictment on the Blues, it's the reality of the competition we've got right now.
One at the top looking likely to stay for a while, 3-4 genuinely awful sides at the bottom, and everybody else in varying degrees of flux praying it all clicks year on year.
Hand the cup over and the competition can get an early start on preseason training.
They Know We're Edging
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What a backfire this thread is. Carlton are s**t
