Carlton 2024 - Are they being overestimated?

[GC2015]

In the same vein of the Port Adelaide 2024 - Are they being underestimated thread, have the expectations for Carlton's 2024 season been overestated this off season? The general consensus during the off season seemed to be that Carlton should at least finish top 4/make another prelim this year and have the list to go even deeper. Obviously you can't read too much into pre-season games but it's probably not a stretch to say the Blues were pretty underwhelming in those games.

The real stuff starts in 8 days when Carlton return to the scene of the crime and try to extract some revenge on Brisbane on their home turf. Taking down the Lions at the Gabba is very difficult (they've won 14 games in a row there) and then who knows what kind of Richmond we're going to see the following week. You'd think Carlton will at least be 1-1 going into that round 2 bye but if they are 0-2 then you'd think there's going to be a lot of questions being asked from the media and the fans.

What are your thoughts on where the Blues currently stand and where they're heading this season?

 

[btdg]

Probably a bit. Last year Carlton went 13-1-9 and finished 5th, then won two arm wrestle finals to sneak into the top 4

Mostly, i think you can expect teams to do about as well as they did the year before, which suggests somewhere between 11 wins (ie: narrowly.missing finals) and 15 wins (sneaking into 4th or 5th). I don't really see why anyone expects massive improvement from a squad already in its prime who didn't add any players of note.

I suspect a bit of a slow start to the year, too. Currently missing Weitering who was last year's BnF, as well as Walsh who is the best midfielder. But also, weirdly, missing all of the non-KP forwards from last year - Silvagni, Martin, Owies, Durdin, and then Motlop got hurt in the first few minutes vs Melb. Who does that leave as the third best forward? Who applies forward pressure? Orazio Fantasia

14

Orazio Fantasia

Age

29

Ht

180cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.6

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.1

5star

G

1.4

5star

D

9.8

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.4

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.2

2star

G

0.2

3star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

(4 games in two years?) and ummm....

The counter is the team is probably better suited to slower and tougher games in August and September than to glorified practice games in March. There's an almost certain pantsing coming in Brisbane, and a strong possibility of a slow start followed by much hand wringing in the media, but this team probably plays its best footy in the second half of the year (again) and ends up somewhere in the finals mix as well.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Can't say for sure after a couple of praccy games that we barely looked to get out of 2nd gear in but the gaping hole Weitering has left is definitely noticeable

 

[RAPPA]

Oh goodie another Carlton thread. This’ll end well.

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

Has there been a modern Carlton season where they performed above their own expectations?

I'd say the 90s is the last time, so it's likely they are being overestimated in '24.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Has there been a modern Carlton season where they performed above their own expectations?

I'd say the 90s is the last time, so it's likely they are being overestimated in '24.

They're the team that always let's you down.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

They're the team that always let's you down.

27 grand final losses...

 

[bourbons]

Practice matches don't mean anything*




*except when Carlton loses one

Seriously though, a lot depends on Weitering, how he comes back from the calf and if he can stay fit the vast majority of the season. The one bloke on the list we can't cover in any capacity.

We aren't beating Brisbane first up, but yeah would be a bit of a concern if the Tiges rolled us too.

 

[Dez!]

Big question marks on that backline, it's Weitering and what else?

 

[bourbons]

Big question marks on that backline, it's Weitering and what else?

We'll be right, we have Lewis Young.

 

[Jeremias]

Had a sensational 2023 after a rocky start.

I think they’re being rated appropriately on the back of that.

If you’re expecting them to blitz the competition and finish top of the ladder, then yeah you’re overestimating them.

Conversely if you think they’re rubbish, you’re underestimating them and likely trolling.

A very good chance to finish top 4 this year. But given how even the competition is, it doesn’t take much to go wrong for a team to finish lower than expected.

 

[bourbons]

But yeah, exactly what I'm saying - without Weitering we are shaky back there and no mistake. McGovern is handy when he's on, problem is he's 'on' nowhere near often enough and will struggle against genuine big key forwards. Big year for some fringe players in Marchbank, Kemp, Cincotta, although none of them are exactly key position either.

Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

33

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

would be handy

 

[NetworkNerd]

I have them down for 16 wins

Brisbane (G) - Likely loss
Richmond (MCG)- Likely win
North (Marvel) - Guaranteed win
Fremantle (AO) - Likely win
Adelaide (Marvel) - Likely win
Giants (Marvel) - Likely win
Geelong (MCG) - Likely win
Collingwood (MCG) - 50/50
Melbourne (MCG) - 50/50
Sydney (SCG) - 50/50
Gold Coast (Marvel) - likely win
Port (AO) - Likely loss
Essendon (MCG) - likely win
Geelong (MCG) - likely win
Richmond (MCG) - likely win
Giants (GS) - 50/50
Bulldogs (Marvel) - likely win
North (Marvel) - Guaranteed win
Port (Marvel) - Likely win
Collingwood (MCG) - 50/50
Hawthorn (MCG) - Guaranteed win
West Coast (OS) - Guaranteed win
St Kilda (Marvel) - 50/50

4 Guaranteed wins
9/11 likely wins
3/6 50/50
0/2 likely losses

 

[adammania9]

27 grand final losses...

Not quite 5 spoons this century, is it?

 

[Scritchyscroony]

27 grand final losses...

Yep. All those extra times we've won a prelim compared to you guys. 43 to 29.

I guess not understanding the importance of winning preliminary finals and the elation supporters get from it is perfectly understandable given the lack of experience you've had with it in your lifetime.

 

[demondavey]

Massive chance to not make the 8. It’s not inconceivable at all. We’ve seen it time and time again. A good season and a decent finals series is followed up by a drop.

Geelong 06
Hawthorn 09
Richmond 16
Melbourne 19

It’s genuinely possible Carlton have a down year before exploding to a GF or flag in 2025. Particularly with their list.

 

[Pleasedontfail11]

Talent wise no. I think they are elite in that department. My issue has always been fitness and coaching to a lesser extent. Last year they had a lot of issues just getting their best on the field and I think Voss is average at best as a coach.

 

[Trav 20]

Can't say for sure after a couple of praccy games that we barely looked to get out of 2nd gear

Do you think that was the coaches instruction ?

 

[longdonkey]

Their best 10 players aren't over-rated but if the rest drop off and a couple of injuries to the wrong players and Carlton could free fall down the ladder.

To be fair that could be the case with most teams.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Do you think that was that the coaches instruction ?

No but given we didn't even have our head coach coaching the games I'm not sure I care to look much into the effort indicators to determine how we'll go this season

 

[demondavey]

I don’t rate Melbourne one bit but it’ll be hilarious to see the reaction from Carlton fans in here if they nosedive. At least we won a flag recently.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

I don’t think they are being overestimated. I think there are expectations, and rightfully so. They showed last year, particularly in the back half of what they are capable of, and for a fairly even competition who knows. I think that Carlton supporters have every right to be excited, but cautious.

 

[Daka]

They didn't even dominate last year they were at one point looking like not playing finals, You would expect them to improve but sometimes that doesn't happen. could easily see a down year for them in saying that they have talented enough list where that should not happen.

 

[QuietB]

They would want to figure out a way to transition the ball a bit better. Practice matches might not mean much - but last night I saw the same stagnant ball movement that hurt them last year.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Prelimiership hangover a real danger , they celebrated too hard .