Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[Pinnell]

Team votes now up over at Sportsbet....clearly they waited and read these boards before they opened up betting. THey did have groups at the start of the year so surely they will follow soon...

 

[Naitashuey]

I put $20 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Barlow/Hodge/Green/Boak/Hayes/Boyd to win about 60K

 

[premiers06]

just done some more multis by hand its so time consuming.

Taken a bit of risk with riewoldt winning with richmond and if watson,brown or thompson lose i think im a bit screwed. I have some sort of cover but it still will be a hefty blow

 

[echelon22]

Looks like that's all the goodies we're getting out of the TAB today

Personally I'm not stressed about the lack of groups yet there's still plenty of the usual markets to go up e.g. head to heads, team trifectas, team to poll the most votes, player to poll in most games etc etc I'm assuming we'll see more of these pop up tomorrow

 

[stuziman]

I put $20 on Thompson/Brown/Watson/Barlow/Hodge/Green/Boak/Hayes/Boyd to win about 60K

worth a $20

maybe take out barlow and i recon ur on the money

 

[lions_den]

luxbet with multis, sweet!

 

[Pinnell]

Gee's....Sportsbet have even got betting on the Norm Smith available (all in of course)!! Stick to the Brownlow for now Sportsbet - still work to be done eg Quinella's that aren't the rip off that TAB SPortsbet are!

 

[lions_den]

worth a $20

maybe take out barlow and i recon ur on the money

so you like green to beat sylvia?

 

[Vapor]

I'm focusing alot on teams with '2 horse races'.

Which team do you guys think is the better option in terms of alternating through some of my multis -

Collingwood - Swan - $1.22 & Pendlebury - $4.50
Geelong - Ablett - $1.18 & Selwood - $6.50

I think the winner at Collingwood will be from either of those 2, with nearest contender Didak no chance.
There is a better spread at Geelong between Ablett & Selwood, which I'd assume is because of Chapman & Bartel. But does anyone think either Chapman or Bartel have any realistic chance at of topping Geelong? I've seen the counts here and I'd assume noone really thinks so, but I'd hate that to kill lots of bets if it happened

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Thompson in to 1.35
Brown in to 1.55
Watson in to 1.60

FFS

 

[Effes]

Sportsbet now have Quins up

Ablett-Judd 36s

 

[Frankie23]

Would be quite sad if Watson, Thompson and Brown don't win their team votes

We'll all be on the first bus to the Westgate

 

[echelon22]

Would be quite sad if Watson, Thompson and Brown don't win their team votes

We'll all be on the first bus to the Westgate

That might explain the timing of the new barriers...does Brumby know something we don't? Maybe he can enlighten us on the supposed chances of Frawley at Melbourne while he's at it

 

[FootyStar#1]

Would be quite sad if Watson, Thompson and Brown don't win their team votes

We'll all be on the first bus to the Westgate

probs drive the bus yeah

 

[Effes]

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

 

[banta]

Would be quite sad if Watson, Thompson and Brown don't win their team votes

We'll all be on the first bus to the Westgate

I just came on to ask if people thought brown, watson, ablett or thompson would be likely to get knocked off, because i have them in 90% of my multis. i think watson and ablett are in 100%

but i guess you've answered my question.

 

[banta]

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

if i was spending a lot on betting i could probably cover all bases, but im not planning on spending too much. so instead of hedging all bets, im just going for it.

 

[RU486]

Now that I've done my multi's I have enough time to share my leaderboard. Not that it means much anyway, more just to give us peace of mind.

Swan - 25
Judd - 25
Ablett - 24
Hodge - 22
NDS - 18
Pendlebury/Hayes - 17

192 Unique Pollers

Adelaide: Thompson (14), Douglas/Goodwin (8) - Hedge Slightly

Brisbane: Brown (12), Brennan (7) - Brown Easy

Collingwood:Swan (25), Pendlebury (17) - Swan should get up

Carlton: Judd (25), Betts (8) - Dont even bother

Essendon: Watson (12), Winderlich/Stanton (4) - Watson easy

Fremantle: Barlow (16), Sandilands (13), Pavlich (12) - Not touching

Geelong: Ablett (24), Bartel (16) - Ablett easy

Hawthorn: Hodge (22), Mitchell (16) - Not worth the risk

Melbourne: Green (11), Sylvia (10), Davey (9) - Hedge these 3

North: Harvey (16), Swallow (14), Wells (11) - Hedge Swallow

Port: Boak (12), Pearce (11), Kornes (8) - Raffle, worth betting Boak

Richmond: Riewoldt (11), Deledio (10) - Bet equally

Saints: NDS (18), Hayes (17), Montagna (14) - Hedge NDS, bet Hayes

WCE: Lecras/Priddis (6) - Raffle

WB: Cooney (15), Gia (12), Boyd (11), Lake (10) - Raffle

Syd: Goodes (15), Jack (14), Bolton (10) - Goodes just

 

[King Of The Hille]

I think Hille is a sneaking chance at Essendon for most votes.

Thoughts on this?

Barlow
Hodge
Sylvia
JRiewoldt
Goodes
Boyd

1:153

 

[FootyStar#1]

I think Hille is a sneaking chance at Essendon for most votes.

Thoughts on this?

Barlow
Hodge
Sylvia
JRiewoldt
Goodes
Boyd

1:153

Hille honestly has no hope, 3 votes against richmond in rd 9, possible 1/2 votes against St Kilda (even though he was reported) but that really is it.

 

[RU486]

I think Hille is a sneaking chance at Essendon for most votes.

Whilst I think it may be closer then predicted Watson will win Essendon's, I have Ryder polling more then Hille.

Thoughts on this?

Barlow
Hodge
Sylvia
JRiewoldt
Goodes
Boyd

1:153

Not bad total odds, but in all reality I can easily see 2 legs failing.

As above

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Ive Done my multis
Only used the one anchor in S.Thompson he is the player im most certain about and didnt want to take to many chances with Watson or Brown. I than hedged with the combos of Sylvia/Green and Boak/Cassisi and put Hayes and Boyd on the end of half each.

After looking through the stats and stuff i reckon Goddard is a massive chance to win Stkildas vote and cant believe people are just shrugging him off. Has had a much better season this year than last and polled 14 last year. Goddard seemed to perform in the stkilda wins and Hayes more so in the close wins/losses which could hurt Hayes. I think Boyd should run away with it for the dogs, i dont think Cooney will poll that strong, he doesnt have any outstanding games where votes can be locked away and those 23-27 disposal games could lose him plenty of votes. Lake is my main worry for the dogs, he has some outstanding games and also polled 7 votes last year, so expect him to better that by a fair bit.

Im starting to think there is some money possibly in S.Mitchell. Performed pretty well in the hawks wins this year and is never ranting out the umpires. Polled 13 votes last year, only down because of umpire love towards Sewell (He wont be taking votes away this year). Also Hodge polled only 2 votes in that scintillating 2008 year for him and only 7 last year. Im not saying Hodge wont win as he has been alot nicer to umpires this year, but Mitchell could hold some value at $13 or even Rioli at $17. Mitchell has polled 21,15,13 in his last 3 years and if Hodge doesnt poll like usual than Mitchell could win it. Buddy stole his votes in 08 and Sewell in 09.

I think the main 4 players still offering value are Boyd, Sylvia, Green and Boak. Multi these guys up with Judd, Thompson (95% anchors), Watson (70% anchors), Brown (50% anchors) and Riewoldt (30% anchors seems the way to go).

Also like the bet of
Boyd - Green
Boyd - Sylvia
Cooney - Green
Cooney - Sylvia
Lake - Green
Lake - Sylvia
Moloney
Any other WBD player

 

[sasal1]

I seriously don't understand everyone's hesitations in smashing Boyd up!
I have got him absolutely monstering Cooney, and a sneaky chance to win the medal..

Have a look at Boyd's period of dominance between rounds 11-17, and compare it to Hayes' rounds 7-11 last year where he picked up 13 votes (of his 20 for the night).

Boyd has great polling history, and is coming off a season where he has stood out more than his teammates due to his consistency.

I'm no bookie, but Boyd would be very close to odds-on for mine.

 

[King Of The Hille]

As above

Yeah thanks mate. Very juice at 150 to 1.

Barlow should be able to get between 10 and 15 I feel however there is always the Pav and Sandi cloud.

A couple of very tight ones, may have to do some more research.

 

[sasal1]

Ive Done my multis
I think Boyd should run away with it for the dogs, i dont think Cooney will poll that strong, he doesnt have any outstanding games where votes can be locked away and those 23-27 disposal games could lose him plenty of votes. Lake is my main worry for the dogs, he has some outstanding games and also polled 7 votes last year, so expect him to better that by a fair bit.

perfect timing mate