Speculation Bailey Smith

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Doggy said:
Future picks are useless to the Dogs.

We have a few father sons next year
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You do realise the Bulldogs could then on trade the future pick right? Either this year or next.

Talk of Smith being worth more than our future first and the Hawks second rounder is lunacy.

Even the most optimistic Collingwood supporter wouldn’t put our future first any higher than 13-15, given our impending retirements and age demographics.

So 2025 Pick 13-15 plus 2024 Pick 24 (currently) for Bailey Smith and his issues. Whilst not massively relevant, points value wise, it’s the equivalent of Pick 5 (at worst).

IMO that’s way over and I hope we don’t pay it and just focus on the draft and free agency. Particularly given our shiddy history with trading future firsts.
 
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Rusty Beam said:
You do realise the Bulldogs could then on trade the future pick right? Either this year or next.

Talk of Smith being worth more than our future first and the Hawks second rounder is lunacy.

Even the most optimistic Collingwood supporter wouldn’t put our future first any higher than 13-15, given our impending retirements and age demographics.

So 2025 Pick 13-15 plus 2024 Pick 24 (currently) for Bailey Smith and his issues. Whilst not massively relevant, points value wise, it’s the equivalent of Pick 5 (at worst).

IMO that’s way over and I hope we don’t pay it and just focus on the draft and free agency. Particularly given our shiddy history with trading future firsts.
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Do you have any idea how many pages of the jeremy Cameron trade thread were taken up with GWS fans telling us trading the picks was our problem?
 
CatToTheFuture said:
Do you have any idea how many pages of the jeremy Cameron trade thread were taken up with GWS fans telling us trading the picks was our problem?
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We copped that during the Jamarra draft and when Essendon were after Dunkley.

Didnt need first rounders for that year for obvious reasons but trading future picks that seemed fair at the time to get other players in, suddenly became our problem according to the experts on this forum 😂.
 
Smith warrants a current top 10 pick. If pies want to use a future first they'll have to provide more because the risk involved. They also want Lobb so they'll need a pick for him too. I seriously don't see how Pies can get picks for both if they nominate Pies. Maybe they'll look at pushing out some players to look for trades.

Right now they have 24, 42, 49 this season. Picks that would be valuable to a team that'll have academy or F/S. Lions have 6 if they stay in that range Pies could go something like.

Pies give 24, 42, 49, Future 2nd, Get Smith, Lobb,
Dogs give Lobb, Smith, 47, Get 6, Future 2nd,
Lions give 6, Get, 24, 42, 47, 49,
 
Reckon he is Hawks bound but will need some massaging as Dogs will want a first rounder this year for him and the Hawks won't want to give up a top 6 pick for him.

Could the Hawks flip 2-6 into a later first rounder and a future first rounder?

So for example they could try and turn their current 4 into Freos 10 and a future first? Then move Smith for 10 and hold a strong hand next year?
 
Ash1337 said:
Smith warrants a current top 10 pick. If pies want to use a future first they'll have to provide more because the risk involved. They also want Lobb so they'll need a pick for him too. I seriously don't see how Pies can get picks for both if they nominate Pies. Maybe they'll look at pushing out some players to look for trades.

Right now they have 24, 42, 49 this season. Picks that would be valuable to a team that'll have academy or F/S. Lions have 6 if they stay in that range Pies could go something like.

Pies give 24, 42, 49, Future 2nd, Get Smith, Lobb,
Dogs give Lobb, Smith, 47, Get 6, Future 2nd,
Lions give 6, Get, 24, 42, 47, 49,
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That's probably the sort of thinking that will get a deal over the line.
With clubs having FS & academy bids, player movement deals are getting more complex
 
Vindicater said:
Reckon he is Hawks bound but will need some massaging as Dogs will want a first rounder this year for him and the Hawks won't want to give up a top 6 pick for him.

Could the Hawks flip 2-6 into a later first rounder and a future first rounder?

So for example they could try and turn their current 4 into Freos 10 and a future first? Then move Smith for 10 and hold a strong hand next year?
Click to expand...
That's where the talk above of splitting it for Suns picks come in.
 
Doggy said:
Future picks are useless to the Dogs.

We have a few father sons next year
Click to expand...
Why are you talking things coming in, on a thread about a player going out?
Collingwood only have future picks.
Smith is out of contract
If we get future picks, so be it
 
Ash1337 said:
Smith warrants a current top 10 pick.
Click to expand...

Agreed. If Smith successfully rehabs from his ACL, I think he's a good bet to play 150+ high quality games from 2025. His injury history is a question mark and perhaps the relatively minor (in my opinion) off field issues he's run into could be as well, but as far as I'm concerned it's nowhere near the risk associated with plucking some kid out of the under 18s and him turning out to simply never do as much in the AFL as Bailey Smith has done already.

That's part of it. But more important to me is the fit of the destination club with its list profile and the fit from the player's perspective. Where is that team going to be over the next 2-5 years? For Smith (who'll be 24 by round 1 2025), I think he'd want a team right in its premiership window, or set to hit its prime by 2026-28. The latter I'd suggest would be the sort of team that should be considering Smith: on the rise, maybe finals 2025, hitting their stride as a team from 2026/27.

For Geelong (assuming we're in the hunt and seriously considering it), I'm not ready to write off 2024 yet, but I see 2025/26 (Cameron and Stewart's twilight) being lean. Then, who knows? But something like Smith is a big call.

It's potentially our Taranto/Hopper moment and it COULD be a brilliant move if the expected core of players on our list born since 1997 kick on and are joined by half a dozen complementary pieces from the 2023-26 drafts. I wouldn't bet on it though, I'd think he's tailor-made for Hawthorn, our short-term midfield concerns notwithstanding.
 

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Pleasedontfail11 said:
That would be unusual
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Yes, talls, its unusual, but reckon they are starting to see its a real issue for us lol They'll just tie Hine's hands behind his back and let someone else take over haha.

Apparantely it was mentioned how we know we have to get back into the draft in a big way and will be targeting talls.
That we want to get back into the first round, but could still get the player we want with hawks 2nd rounder.
 
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Strapping Young Lad said:
Respectfully disagree about the Pies.
Oldest list in the comp with only 1 top 10 pick under 28 years old on the list(Nick D). There is no gun key forward available for them as a FA.

With the amount of players they need to replace over the next 1-2 years they are a very big chance of dropping off the cliff right when Tassie start sucking up all the top end picks. Horrible timing.

Cats have at least kept rolling over players in bringing in young talent(Bruhn, Henry, Clarke, O’Sullivan).
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Collingwood’s shrewd talent ID at trade time and at the back ends of drafts will prevent the club from “bottoming out”. The lack of young top 10 picks is a cherry-picked stat that bears no actual meaning. The club is in good hands, the list is being turned over already this year and the Pies will continue to be thereabouts most years, consistent with just about all of time.
 
adammania9 said:
Collingwood’s shrewd talent ID at trade time and at the back ends of drafts will prevent the club from “bottoming out”. The lack of young top 10 picks is a cherry-picked stat that bears no actual meaning. The club is in good hands, the list is being turned over already this year and the Pies will continue to be thereabouts most years, consistent with just about all of time.
Click to expand...
I Dont Believe You Will Ferrell GIF
 
Unsure why the laughter Doggy , just providing info
Is it because you don’t like the info because it isn’t what you wanted to hear?
Or just because it wasn’t Dogs serving?
 
adammania9 said:
We know a Collingwood downfall is all you want to see. Unfortunately, it’s not looking likely
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No, I just see the oldest list in the comp with not enough young talent to stop the drop.
 
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