LAST TIME THEY MET
Back in Rd 3 2019, Fremantle, the league's highest scoring side at that time beat Collingwood, the then league's lowest scoring side, by more than 5 goals at Fremantle Oval (7.9.51 to 2.6.18), Freo managing to score more than the Pies had scored in total across the first 3 rounds. Fremantle regularly burst from stoppages, launched long and fast into their forward line (dominating i50s 42 to 22) and simply overwhelmed the Pies' defence. The scoreline would have been far more lopsided if not for the efforts of the Pies' star defenders in Ash Brazill and Stacey Livingstone.
WHAT'S CHANGED
Collingwood's coach and in turn their game plan. Similar to Fremantle a year prior, the Pies' have found immediate success after changing their coach. They are getting their hands on the ball more and working it around, often via handball and short kicks to find space on the outside to allow easier ball movement, cleaner i50 entries and better scoring efficiency. Fremantle's team meanwhile might look a bit different from last time they met but their game style remains about applying intense pressure on ball, and with fast and direct football when in possession.
TEAMS
Fremantle
No changes
B J.Cuthbertson 29 ~ E.Gooch 8
HB A.Stannett 24 ~ P.Seth 18 ~ L.Mascall 14
C K.Grieve 13 ~ H.Miller 19 ~ B.Webb 26
HF E.Antonio 12 ~ R.Roux 17 ~ A.Sharp 1
F S.Duffy 6 ~ G.Houghton 27
FOL M.Strom 21 ~ K.Bowers 2 ~ K.Antonio (C) 15
I/C K.Flood 44 ~ J.Stewart 7 ~ L.Pugh 32 ~ L.Rohde 11 ~ G.O'Sullivan 22
EMG E.O'Driscoll 3 ~ M.Clifford 4
Collingwood
In: R.Schleicher, B.Davey, K.Stratton
Out: E.O'Dea (Omitted), S.Alexander (Omitted), M.Shevlin (Omitted)
B A.Porter 9 ~ S.Livingstone 12
HB L.Butler 23 ~ A.Brazill 10 ~ C.Molloy 2
C S.Rowe 7 ~ S.Casey 22 ~ S.Chiocci (C) 17
HF A.Sheridan 14 ~ J.Lambert 13 ~ B.Bonnici 8
F M.Cann 25 ~ R.Schleicher 18
FOL S.Layton 1 ~ E.Fowler 15 ~ S.D'Arcy 4
I/C S.Dargan 46 ~ B.Davey 3 ~ J.Allen 6 ~ J.Membrey 21 ~ K.Stratton 41
EMG M.Shevlin 35 E.O'Dea 50
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
These are two in form teams in the AFLW and it will likely come down to who wins the various battles across each line. Will Collingwood's heavy handball game be too slow for Fremantle's intense pressure on and around the ball? Will Fremantle's team defence stand up against the shorter and slower but more precise ball movement of the Pies? Can Collingwood's defence negate Freo's potent forward line? Can they force intercepts, rebound and retain possession down field to get enough rebound and scoring opportunities the other way?
Collingwood handball more than any other team and have racked up some big disposal numbers so far this season (~100 more than Freo across 2 games). Meanwhile Fremantle have the highest kick ratio, rarely handballing (lowest of all teams), and a noticeable preference not to overuse the ball having racked up the third least disposals whilst still being the league's highest scoring team (by 3 more goals -> 15 total).
Collingwood get a lot of their drive through rebounding from half back, primarily by their two tall defenders in Brazill and Livingstone. Last week they clamped down pretty well on Tayla Harris, who apparently is useless when the ball hits the ground but it will be interesting to see how they go against a forward line containing all of Houghton, E.Antonio and Roux - all athletic, quick, strong in the air and agile on the ground. Houghton's impact so far this season has been underrated by most. She leads the AFLW score involvements in the first two rounds with 14 total, 5 more than the next best in AFLW. If she touches the ball it invariably leads to Fremantle scoring. Collingwood also have two dangerous forwards of their own in Chiocci and D'Arcy who similarly tend to create scoring opportunities for their team when they get to touch the ball.
On paper Fremantle should win the clearance battle led by Bowers alongside fellow tackling machine Grieve and long left boot Stewart. Hayley Miller's burst will also be hard for the Pies to contain as she's been confirmed fit and available after coming off the ground early in Rd 2 with Freo making the call to get the job done without her coming back on. Will we see Captain Kara Antonio line up in the middle a few times for the first time this season? Both her and her wife Ebony, have been solid without their usual dominance across the first two rounds. Both were instrumental in Freo's win against the Pies last year. Rohde has been building nicely on the wing whilst last year's Goal of the Year winner, Ashley Sharp, has yet to hit her straps. Bianca Webb played like a veteran in her debut last week (that first tackle of the game to get a holding the ball was sensational) and I can't wait to see her grow in confidence and see her impact games even more over the coming weeks.
Fremantle's forward line will be a handful for any team to stop and we still haven't seen anything close to its best yet. What's possible if Houghton starts clunking marks, Antonio starts tearing games apart like last season, Sharp starts breaking lines with her run, and Flood finally gets sparked into gear and shows some of the things she's shown at training? I'm not sure we'll see all that come together this weekend but I'm expecting a solid showing from all those players plus Duffy, Roux and O'Sullivan.
Prior to the season starting this was a game I had pencilled in as a highly likely win. I think Freo still go in as deserved favourites but if they haven't prepared well Collingwood are now a team that could surprise them. Gut still says Freo should be good enough.
Fremantle by 2 goals
Back in Rd 3 2019, Fremantle, the league's highest scoring side at that time beat Collingwood, the then league's lowest scoring side, by more than 5 goals at Fremantle Oval (7.9.51 to 2.6.18), Freo managing to score more than the Pies had scored in total across the first 3 rounds. Fremantle regularly burst from stoppages, launched long and fast into their forward line (dominating i50s 42 to 22) and simply overwhelmed the Pies' defence. The scoreline would have been far more lopsided if not for the efforts of the Pies' star defenders in Ash Brazill and Stacey Livingstone.
WHAT'S CHANGED
Collingwood's coach and in turn their game plan. Similar to Fremantle a year prior, the Pies' have found immediate success after changing their coach. They are getting their hands on the ball more and working it around, often via handball and short kicks to find space on the outside to allow easier ball movement, cleaner i50 entries and better scoring efficiency. Fremantle's team meanwhile might look a bit different from last time they met but their game style remains about applying intense pressure on ball, and with fast and direct football when in possession.
TEAMS
Fremantle
No changes
B J.Cuthbertson 29 ~ E.Gooch 8
HB A.Stannett 24 ~ P.Seth 18 ~ L.Mascall 14
C K.Grieve 13 ~ H.Miller 19 ~ B.Webb 26
HF E.Antonio 12 ~ R.Roux 17 ~ A.Sharp 1
F S.Duffy 6 ~ G.Houghton 27
FOL M.Strom 21 ~ K.Bowers 2 ~ K.Antonio (C) 15
I/C K.Flood 44 ~ J.Stewart 7 ~ L.Pugh 32 ~ L.Rohde 11 ~ G.O'Sullivan 22
EMG E.O'Driscoll 3 ~ M.Clifford 4
Collingwood
In: R.Schleicher, B.Davey, K.Stratton
Out: E.O'Dea (Omitted), S.Alexander (Omitted), M.Shevlin (Omitted)
B A.Porter 9 ~ S.Livingstone 12
HB L.Butler 23 ~ A.Brazill 10 ~ C.Molloy 2
C S.Rowe 7 ~ S.Casey 22 ~ S.Chiocci (C) 17
HF A.Sheridan 14 ~ J.Lambert 13 ~ B.Bonnici 8
F M.Cann 25 ~ R.Schleicher 18
FOL S.Layton 1 ~ E.Fowler 15 ~ S.D'Arcy 4
I/C S.Dargan 46 ~ B.Davey 3 ~ J.Allen 6 ~ J.Membrey 21 ~ K.Stratton 41
EMG M.Shevlin 35 E.O'Dea 50
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
These are two in form teams in the AFLW and it will likely come down to who wins the various battles across each line. Will Collingwood's heavy handball game be too slow for Fremantle's intense pressure on and around the ball? Will Fremantle's team defence stand up against the shorter and slower but more precise ball movement of the Pies? Can Collingwood's defence negate Freo's potent forward line? Can they force intercepts, rebound and retain possession down field to get enough rebound and scoring opportunities the other way?
Collingwood handball more than any other team and have racked up some big disposal numbers so far this season (~100 more than Freo across 2 games). Meanwhile Fremantle have the highest kick ratio, rarely handballing (lowest of all teams), and a noticeable preference not to overuse the ball having racked up the third least disposals whilst still being the league's highest scoring team (by 3 more goals -> 15 total).
Collingwood get a lot of their drive through rebounding from half back, primarily by their two tall defenders in Brazill and Livingstone. Last week they clamped down pretty well on Tayla Harris, who apparently is useless when the ball hits the ground but it will be interesting to see how they go against a forward line containing all of Houghton, E.Antonio and Roux - all athletic, quick, strong in the air and agile on the ground. Houghton's impact so far this season has been underrated by most. She leads the AFLW score involvements in the first two rounds with 14 total, 5 more than the next best in AFLW. If she touches the ball it invariably leads to Fremantle scoring. Collingwood also have two dangerous forwards of their own in Chiocci and D'Arcy who similarly tend to create scoring opportunities for their team when they get to touch the ball.
On paper Fremantle should win the clearance battle led by Bowers alongside fellow tackling machine Grieve and long left boot Stewart. Hayley Miller's burst will also be hard for the Pies to contain as she's been confirmed fit and available after coming off the ground early in Rd 2 with Freo making the call to get the job done without her coming back on. Will we see Captain Kara Antonio line up in the middle a few times for the first time this season? Both her and her wife Ebony, have been solid without their usual dominance across the first two rounds. Both were instrumental in Freo's win against the Pies last year. Rohde has been building nicely on the wing whilst last year's Goal of the Year winner, Ashley Sharp, has yet to hit her straps. Bianca Webb played like a veteran in her debut last week (that first tackle of the game to get a holding the ball was sensational) and I can't wait to see her grow in confidence and see her impact games even more over the coming weeks.
Fremantle's forward line will be a handful for any team to stop and we still haven't seen anything close to its best yet. What's possible if Houghton starts clunking marks, Antonio starts tearing games apart like last season, Sharp starts breaking lines with her run, and Flood finally gets sparked into gear and shows some of the things she's shown at training? I'm not sure we'll see all that come together this weekend but I'm expecting a solid showing from all those players plus Duffy, Roux and O'Sullivan.
Prior to the season starting this was a game I had pencilled in as a highly likely win. I think Freo still go in as deserved favourites but if they haven't prepared well Collingwood are now a team that could surprise them. Gut still says Freo should be good enough.
Fremantle by 2 goals
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