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AFL Round 8

  • Thread starter Thread starter Cuzz09
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KardiniaPark said:
Here's an idea...Try and write as if you have an opinion instead of shoving it down our throats. Also, take a deep breath before you post and think it through...5 minutes before this post you said you didnt like anything this week...:o
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its a raffle, i dont like anything this week. no CLEAR as day winners.

except sydney who are way to short to take...

i will be on pies over 121 team score and whatever team line they bring out.
not with alot of confidence, but i think they will come out firing.

my match = way to go.
 
Geelong don't play the MCG nearly as well as Collingwood, hence the odds.

Last year Geelong were 5-5 @ the MCG.

Wins against: Fremantle, Collingwood, Essendon, and Hawthorn x 2.

Beating Essendon last year was easy, beating Fremantle on the MCG is easy, the 2 Hawthorn games were by 9 points and 2 points... Obviously the Collingwood win was good.

Their losses came against Collingwood (x2), St.kilda (x2) and Carlton.

Basically, last year, Geelong were only able to beat 2nd tier teams at the MCG, for the most part.

This year Geelong are 2-0 @ the MCG. 19 point win against the Hawks and a 1 point win against the Saints. I don't think that's amazingly impressive.

Collingwood, on the other hand, went 14-2 at the MCG last year and are 4-0 this year. Collingwood have great reason for being short favourites.
 
Gee v Coll - Agree with most posters, cats may be good value at 15.5 line.

Roos v Melb - If it was at the G, i would go the dees but this is really 50/50. Depends what Melbourne side shows up.

Adel v GC - Adelaide will come out firing. If the line is in the 30's i would back the crows

Bris v Ess - Reckon the Dons will win but Brisbane at the line might be a chance

Syd v Port - Sydney over 39.5. Port are hopeless

Haw v StK - Saints struggling, hawks like the G. Load up on hawks

Dogs v Rich - Dogs can't afford to lose this one. Dogs under 39.5pts

Freo v WC - Dockers dominating derbies of late. 1.75 is extremely generous imo
 
Jimmy_the_Gent said:
Geelong don't play the MCG nearly as well as Collingwood, hence the odds.

Collingwood, on the other hand, went 14-2 at the MCG last year and are 4-0 this year. Collingwood have great reason for being short favourites.
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You missed the draw. Beating Hawthorn and st kilda not impressive?? beg to differ there
 

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Just wondering what the punters think of the North/Melb game. I lean towards North without a lot confidence. They were beaten by Geelong, smashed by the umpires last round, no Trengove,Grimes, North a bigger bodied side, Dees have pace but North a more stable side.
Thoughts?
 
Demon3 said:
You missed the draw. Beating Hawthorn and st kilda not impressive?? beg to differ there
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My bad on the draw.

Beating Hawthorn is somewhat impressive although they haven't proven themselves this year (wins against Richmond, Melbourne, Port and West Coast - I reckon only one of those 4 will make the 8, at best) and they weren't amazing last year.

Beating St.Kilda in 2011 is piss easy.
 
adii_7 said:
its a raffle, i dont like anything this week. no CLEAR as day winners.

except sydney who are way to short to take...

i will be on pies over 121 team score and whatever team line they bring out.
not with alot of confidence, but i think they will come out firing.

my match = way to go.
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Just a tip.

If you don't beat 80% of your bankroll every week, you don't need to find "certain" winners (not that they actually exist).
 
collingwood are going to mop the floor with geelong...

sportsbet had the pies at $1.35 prior to the weekends game..

does beating north at skilled stadium really tell you anything about geelong?

25+ points
 
using some of the following for a few multis:

coll/coll $1.75
coll under 39.5 $2.20
adelaide/adelaide $1.28
sydney/sydney $1.28
north/north $2.90
north under 39.5 $2.65
hawks under 39.5 $2.15
freo/freo $2.40
freo under 39.5 $2.5

what do you think?
 
Jimmy_the_Gent said:
Geelong don't play the MCG nearly as well as Collingwood, hence the odds.

Last year Geelong were 5-5 @ the MCG.

Wins against: Fremantle, Collingwood, Essendon, and Hawthorn x 2.

Beating Essendon last year was easy, beating Fremantle on the MCG is easy, the 2 Hawthorn games were by 9 points and 2 points... Obviously the Collingwood win was good.

Their losses came against Collingwood (x2), St.kilda (x2) and Carlton.

Basically, last year, Geelong were only able to beat 2nd tier teams at the MCG, for the most part.

This year Geelong are 2-0 @ the MCG. 19 point win against the Hawks and a 1 point win against the Saints. I don't think that's amazingly impressive.

Collingwood, on the other hand, went 14-2 at the MCG last year and are 4-0 this year. Collingwood have great reason for being short favourites.
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Don't get me wrong, I still think that Collingwood should win, and should be faves, but the prices do surprise me a little.

I am not sure how much we can read into Geelong's from last year. There was definite internal troubles, they just seemed preoccupied by the Ablett thing. Plus with Bomber maybe not on the ball, I think it's almost a forget season formwise, they had all the talent, but it just wasn't working as best it could.

This year however they look a different side. A new lease on footy life under a new coach and the midfielders are rotating a lot better minus Ablett versus when Ablett was out last year.

Hence that is why I think it will be a close game. I am happy to stick with the market I came up with, and hopefully Collingwood by 15 points in the end. ;)
 

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jamesmac23 said:
using some of the following for a few multis:

coll/coll $1.75 Probably fair odds
coll under 39.5 $2.20 Can't see a blow out, Geelong should hold them to this (prefer to HT/FT)
adelaide/adelaide $1.28 I've been surprised by GCS, they may surprise again for a half.
sydney/sydney $1.28 Should do it easily
north/north $2.90 Pass at this stage - depends who is playing
north under 39.5 $2.65 See above
hawks under 39.5 $2.15 Might be worth either team under 25
freo/freo $2.40 I don't think Freo will win this one. If they do
there is a good chance WC will lead at the half.
freo under 39.5 $2.5 See above

what do you think?
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Commented
 
Vince Masuka said:
Don't get me wrong, I still think that Collingwood should win, and should be faves, but the prices do surprise me a little....
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Right on with everything you said.

Not sure predicting emotion is a smart thing to attempt but I could imagine Geelong really setting themselves for this one too.

I'll probably end up taking Collingwood by 1-39 or 1-24, so we're thinking the same thing.
 
Hey Guys,
I'm new to this forum but just thought I'd introduce myself. I've been following these threads for a long time now and now feel I'd like to begin contributing. Generally I like to do my research whenever I do place bets as my betting philosophy is that with a bit of research into the history of a match-up (not just game H2H but also things such as most disposals), we can learn a lot about what may happen which can only help to give us that edge. Thats pretty much it- I look forward to sharing ideas with all of you regulars!
 

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haysie68 said:
Just wondering what the punters think of the North/Melb game. I lean towards North without a lot confidence. They were beaten by Geelong, smashed by the umpires last round, no Trengove,Grimes, North a bigger bodied side, Dees have pace but North a more stable side.
Thoughts?
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I like North in this one.

Thinking about a North / Cronulla double paying 5.74. Depends if the Roosters play the drunk.
 

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