Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - Rookie Draft starts 2:55pm today

[Nuggs Bunny]

When is the draft
Coverage on the AFL website starts at 6:45pm on Wednesday 20th November, tune in on FoxFooty and Kayo from 7pm

How can I watch?
AFL website through the Draft Hub or through your Kayo or FoxFooty subscription

What are our picks?
Check out Lore's 2024 draft spreadsheet below

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order

Who is looking good this year?
Cal Twomey's Top 30 Phantom Draft
Essendon Draft Preview from Rookie Me Central

 

[Yoda_]

My absolute ideal dream scenario is this;

We probably do need a half back in this years draft if you see him as that

But we also have Roberts, Zerrett, Martin, Redman and Mcgrath capable as that and good hype around El Hawli whos mature aged and has played that position. Prior aswell

I struggle to see those tall 4 in the same backline. Just too incompetent on the ground and moving the ball quickly/dangerously post intercept

Mckay/Reid just isnt Darcy Moore. Mcgrath isnt quite Jack Sinclair so as an overall package it isnt great

But even if as you say have those 4 in the same backline, an injury to either of them could be repalced with a small like Roberts/Zerrett/El Hawli ect and the mix is still fine. Other areas are more pressing, but do agree we could probably do with a player capable of half back

I would think that flankers are almost the number 1 need after the small fwd we are being gifted

Throw in a key forward and that should be us done.. If we can get a meat and potatoes mid in the rookie draft that would be me done and dusted

I just dont know how trading back into this draft works for us. All these permutations being thrown around could see us do anything. End up with 3 inside 30 with only one late F1 or keep what we have


If we were to keep what we have, I would love a draft haul of;

Kako
Day-Wicks
Bice/Davidson
Nicholls

(Rookie) Sam Toner
(Rookie) Zane Cochrane

Nguyen as a Cat B rounds us out

 

[faible]

My absolute ideal dream scenario is this;

I would think that flankers are almost the number 1 need after the small fwd we are being gifted

Throw in a key forward and that should be us done.. If we can get a meat and potatoes mid in the rookie draft that would be me done and dusted

I just dont know how trading back into this draft works for us. All these permutations being thrown around could see us do anything. End up with 3 inside 30 with only one late F1 or keep what we have


If we were to keep what we have, I would love a draft haul of;

Kako
Day-Wicks
Bice/Davidson
Nicholls

(Rookie) Sam Toner
(Rookie) Zane Cochrane

Nguyen as a Cat B rounds us out

It is quite funny that after 20 years of Dodoro being accused of only drafting flankers, we actually need flankers.

If we could get a midfielder with good ball use that can play outside and start their career of half-back like Daicos and Sheezel have, that would be a nice pick-up. Ideally they're the player that could fill the Zach Merrett sized hole we'll one day have to fill.

 

[Yoda_]

It is quite funny that after 20 years of Dodoro being accused of only drafting flankers, we actually need flankers.

If we could get a midfielder with good ball use that can play outside and start their career of half-back like Daicos and Sheezel have, that would be a nice pick-up. Ideally they're the player that could fill the Zach Merrett sized hole we'll one day have to fill.

more ironic than Dodo building a spine first?

 

[faible]

Also no pressure Kako, but our entire draft strategy is based around you being the saviour for our forward line. Good luck.

 

[fairbump_playon]

Trading out 9 was a gamble. I know it gives us more flexibility but would we have done it if we were sure we could use 9 and still get Kako?

Probably not

I think the Dees’ first will be around 9 next year so in a way we picked up some free points for Kako

But I’ll be annoyed if we take Kako in the mid teens and then use an F1 (ours or Melbourne’s) to trade back in for someone in the late teens or early 20s

That would be the definition of a failed strategy / lack of willingness to hold our nerve

 

[Keystone agony]

Trading out 9 was a gamble. I know it gives us more flexibility but would we have done it if we were sure we could use 9 and still get Kako?

Not even a question, absolutely no way

I think the Dees’ first will be around 9 next year so in a way we picked up some free points for Kako

But I’ll be annoyed if we take Kako in the mid teens and then use an F1 (ours or Melbourne’s) to trade back in for someone in the late teens or early 20s

That would be the definition of a failed strategy / lack of willingness to hold our nerve

Your not taking into account player available/strength of pools

Plus it is always beneficial and worth more to get someone in 12 months earlier

 

[Keystone agony]

The talk of us doing early trades i think means were just getting F2s and points for 28 and/or 31

Surely its worth holding to see if we can get into GWS pick at 16 with a combo of F1, 28 and 31

Im very unsure on Hotton, has seemed to have gone from 180 to 182, but dont see him as one of those small forwards. Think he has to become more of a genuine midfielder with rest fwd at AFL level

 

[crackers65]

Also no pressure Kako, but our entire draft strategy is based around you being the saviour for our forward line. Good luck.

Just as the davey’s were!

 

[Old Campaigner]

Trading out 9 was a gamble. I know it gives us more flexibility but would we have done it if we were sure we could use 9 and still get Kako?

Probably not

I think the Dees’ first will be around 9 next year so in a way we picked up some free points for Kako

But I’ll be annoyed if we take Kako in the mid teens and then use an F1 (ours or Melbourne’s) to trade back in for someone in the late teens or early 20s

That would be the definition of a failed strategy / lack of willingness to hold our nerve

I'd argue trading out 9 was the safe option, at least this way we're guaranteed the use of a first round pick wherever Kako ends up being bid on. The gamble would be to have held onto 9 in the hope a bid comes after the pick and risking getting lowballed if we tried to trade the pick out on the night.

 

[Keystone agony]

Twomey late mail has saints bid on Kako :/

Does make sense to do though, gives them best chance of moving pick 32 inside Hoffman and more points

 

[mIKe9441]

Just as the davey’s were!

We didn't completely change our draft strategy for the Davey's

 

[Keystone agony]

We didn't completely change our draft strategy for the Davey's

Draft hand* (strategy may have always been to move on that pick for the right deal and just match with points)

Likely because we didnt need to because one is rated around 10 and the other around 50

But i do remember everyone saying Dodoro needed to move on 25 because of a risk on bid

Theres maybe a little bit of Harry Rowston situation for us. GWS clearly thought theyd kept him quiet enough to attract a bid post their pick, but then smart recruiters leveraged that risk in trying to get an awesome deal in picks to not bid. GWS held firm and swans ended up doing the bid regardless

If im saints maybe i ask for 9 + 31 for an F1 or say we will bid

There is the possibility now that Kako really drifts out, as i dont see much point if a bid with other teams there. Usually teams do it to get a slight benefit from picks later on. Richmond, WCE, Freo, Port dont have picks later on and dont need to assist in bidding ect

I do think at worst we wouldve got Norths F1 for 9 live on draft night though. Absolute horrifying worst case you get Cats F1 and several points

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Sounds like Prior is all but confirmed. Wouldn’t have thought you would not nominate for the draft without cause to do so.

Prior has already moved to Melbourne too (he was a WA boy wasn’t he?)

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Twomey late mail has saints bid on Kako :/

Does make sense to do though, gives them best chance of moving pick 32 inside Hoffman and more points

Would be surprised if Saints bid on him…sides don’t want to offend the players they pick by saying we preferred someone else. Plus they like marketing “2 top ten players”

Anyway we should trade 28+53 for F2+47 with them.
Win/win for both sides, likely means Kako doesn’t get bid on until Tigers pick 11/13

 

[Old Campaigner]

Would be surprised if Saints bid on him…sides don’t want to offend the players they pick by saying we preferred someone else.

is this actually a thing or just some made up fan bullshit?

 

[eth-dog]

is this actually a thing or just some made up fan bullshit?

Some academy and father sons have slid a long way further than expected in recent times

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

is this actually a thing or just some made up fan bullshit?

Sounds like fan bullshit but I have heard the the professionals say on the radio

The one I don’t get is “we knew we couldn’t get him so we didn’t put the time into him(Leo Lombard)” comments. The guy has done top5 all time in testing and played in a VFL flag at 16 but he still may not get bid on top 6

 

[The Prosecutor]

Ashcroft not getting bid on until pick 5 would be some straight up BS.

 

[Keystone agony]

is this actually a thing or just some made up fan bullshit?

Id say its more so not doing the dirty work and wanting someone else to, because what comes around goes around sortve thing

More the reason than offending players. Dont think any player cares they go pick 9 instead of 10

 

[jdstorm]

I dont think there is another player that does what your saying Cox should do in the comp there. It would be creating something completely new, where your planned to rotate forward and back every game in the same game. Not entriely impossible

Having only 3 onfield at once in the backline is probably fine, the issue will be 4


Also as faible said



Ridley also went

91
93
100
100
93
91

When he got right last year, so your really not maximising him by reducing his TOG by 15 when hes one of our best players

KPDs like McKay are usually > 90% TOG (Round 24 he played 98%, and Laverde 97%)

Mac Andrew Rotates forward and back. It’s rare mostly because good forwards stay close to goals and good backs typically aren’t great in front of the sticks because if they were they’d be forwards.

Cox is a strange case cause he’s average both ends. Decent enough to pick but not good enough to settle.

Plus your 3rd tall defenders tend to be covered by smaller(medium) players as teams don’t typically have an abundance of Talls. So give up height for skill. (It’s also possible that Ridley could play Def4/HB and the point is moot. But assuming that’s not the case.

45 players played above 90% av tog last season in > 5 games. 5 played for Essendon (McKay, Lav, Martin, Kelly and Langford)

1800/22 = 81.8 which is roughly what average tog should be if evenly distributed.

Better players push closer to 90. Over that in a developing year is just excessive. Gassing your stars because you don’t trust the bench is not conducive to player development.

If those 3 defenders take an extra 15-20% tog just have Cox cover Caddy as well and it works.

Then to tweak rotations Martn plays more HB cover, Dursma HF (or vice versa) and jones gets bulk wing (open side/decoy) with 10-15% at 3rd tall when Langford rests.

In practice it’s rotations look something like this
Cox rotation covers McKay Reid Ridley FF CHF Ruck (talls)
Jones rotation covers Redman McGrath Roberts Martin dursma Langford (flankers)

Then it’s 2 bench spots to cover inside mids + pressure forwards. Given our surplus small mids this seems the right way to do it.

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

But I’ll be annoyed if we take Kako in the mid teens and then use an F1 (ours or Melbourne’s) to trade back in for someone in the late teens or early 20s

That would be the definition of a failed strategy / lack of willingness to hold our nerve

I've seen this sentiment around a bit and I think it fails to recognize that incentives are different in the counterfactual. If a Kako bid now comes at say, pick 13, that doesn't mean it wouldn't have come earlier if we still held pick 9. Assuming he's in the mix of players Saints like at their picks, their willingness to pull the trigger and make us pay up is infinitely higher if we're sitting a pick behind them versus now.

Trading out suggested we thought he was in the mix for them there and so we wanted to hedge against having to pay through the nose and lose the value of that pick. Assuming we had that kind of mail, trading out was and is the smart play, irrespective of when the Kako bid comes tomorrow.

 

[Big Fresh]

I've seen this sentiment around a bit and I think it fails to recognize that incentives are different in the counterfactual. If a Kako bid now comes at say, pick 13, that doesn't mean it wouldn't have come earlier if we still held pick 9. Assuming he's in the mix of players Saints like at their picks, their willingness to pull the trigger and make us pay up is infinitely higher if we're sitting a pick behind them versus now.

Trading out suggested we thought he was in the mix for them there and so we wanted to hedge against having to pay through the nose and lose the value of that pick. Assuming we had that kind of mail, trading out was and is the smart play, irrespective of when the Kako bid comes tomorrow.

Regardless of where the bid comes, the problem they mentioned is if Essendon trades back in using a F1 for a late teens/early 20s pick. At that point they might as well have just kept 9 and 28, and the NGA access would have arguably left them with a worse outcome instead of providing an opportunity to manufacture an additional first round pick.

 

[Milanista28]

i get your point but i dont think either of them had much market interest overall

Exactly, so we should've offered 3 years to both of them.

 

[Milanista28]

I think people on this site need to accept cox is not going to make it.
He is physically frail and picks and chooses when to compete.

Never!!

 

[Vindicater]

Trading out 9 was a gamble. I know it gives us more flexibility but would we have done it if we were sure we could use 9 and still get Kako?

Probably not

I think the Dees’ first will be around 9 next year so in a way we picked up some free points for Kako

But I’ll be annoyed if we take Kako in the mid teens and then use an F1 (ours or Melbourne’s) to trade back in for someone in the late teens or early 20s

That would be the definition of a failed strategy / lack of willingness to hold our nerve

After their presidents comments at their B and F I would be amazed if the Saints dont bid on both Lombard and Kako.