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A thread on politics- have some balls and post


Nothing to see here.... First a Truth Social post telling people it's a good time to buy then this. Just a couple of rich guys having a circle jerk about how much money they just made.

Priorities you know...
 

Nothing to see here.... First a Truth Social post telling people it's a good time to buy then this. Just a couple of rich guys having a circle jerk about how much money they just made.

Priorities you know...

Not hiding from the fact that it's the poor and working class that will feel the pain from his actions
 
Watching Dutton panic and back peddle makes me shake my head as to how naive the LNP were... How did he possibly think being the Temu Trump would appeal to voters here - especially women and youth who HAVE to vote? Some of his policy decisions have been down right idiotic.

The worst part is that it will let Labor cruise... and they have no right to. Theres a decent chunk who swung left last time who will be unhappy with the talk in opposition not turning into policy in Govt. It's never that easy but those who were disaffected by Morrison will have some reason to feel the same about Albo.

Personally I think the LNP deserve another 3 years in opposition. By default, Labor have done just enough to get another 3 in Govt. Chalmers makes Taylor look like the bumbling idiot he actually is so that alone gives you a bit more confidence to navigate these interesting years ahead.

Still - I can't help but think it will be a hung parliament. And honestly I'm all for it. A bit of chaos and upsetting the status quo - Australian style thank you - won't be a bad thing. There's some pretty smart people on the cross benches in both houses who could stand to be heard more often.
 
I'm a free trade guy and don't much see the point in tariffs and in particular the way the Trumpster went about it runs foreign to my understanding of how to conduct International relations.

However despite the financial whales giving Trump a drubbing over it , the market shakeout and the media piling in as if the world was ending sorry to say the worm is about to turn.

Charts on the major indicators are about to turn bullish if they can get over the post April 15 period which is traditionally a tax drain event in the US economy. Retail panic sold into the kefuffle but money flows show the major players for the most part holding tight.

What does it all mean ? Specifically that the tariffs as they were presented were never the intended consequence or outcome and the real outcome will be worked through over the next several weeks is my best guess.

Re some of the points raised here . Debt does matter in the US because it's the financial centre of the world and Bessent understood that if the bond market imploded that would be a disastrous outcome the world over. The bond market is bigger than the stock market and the Feds capacity to keep the balls in the air is limited as soon as it losses control of the bond market . When the selloff began there he reacted instantly . As he should. Fwiiw Bessent is really smart and measured. Lutnick is a fool.

Re Billionaires making money from the selloff ,that's totally an overrated envy emotion. Trump told the world not to panic . The high majority of whales publicly berated him and weren't buying . Sure some would've sniffed an opportunity and bought and likewise had very smelly fingers after a day or two. It only reversed once the bond market was getting attacked and they cobbled together the response. Otherwise it would've run a lot longer.

The majority of Trump's grass roots supporters wouldn't hold stocks . The big money is in NY, LA and Silicon Valley , local and International Hedge funds and Governments. In the shorter term at least they were the ones getting hurt ,some of them very badly. In every financial 'crisis' if that's what you want to call it the retail side always dumps. That's just what happens. The ones being hurt most are the Big 7 but they were overvalued anyway . Google at least looks like a buy here.

It's going to be kind of funny if the ultimate result does have a net positive outcome . It's possible . There's an old saying that if you're going to panic panic early. Not sure that's going to apply here.

The next few weeks should be interesting
 
To conclude overall in the longer term assets will get repriced particularly as foreign demand for US assets deceases and the US itself moves away from globalisation. You would think US GDP will also have to be repriced lower.

All of this isn't necessarily a disaster if the Fed is able to restart QE as companies adjust to lower margins. But many things need to go right.

It was happening one way or another Trump or no Trump as US assets were getting wildly overvalued and the flight to the USD which has been the default position of safety worldwide for several years couldn't go on forever. The trajectory of the oil price has been indicating something was up for a while now. The Trump mob have made an attempt to pre empt these paradigm changes and for the shorter term it could shore things up.
 
Trump is almost at Dictator status. Undermining the legal system and anyone that opposes him by threatening to freeze out firms that do not heal and no openly defying the Supreme Court. He isn’t a genius, just a bully. Sadly it appears no one in the home of the free is organised enough to stop him and his cronies.
 

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A thread on politics- have some balls and post


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