Player Watch #27 Thomson Dow

[Madtiger2006]

I ran some data on a selection of players who have been predominantly mids: Anderson, Brayshaw, Serong and LDU:

Averages from game 0-40 (combining all 4… who all had similar ratio’s):

Disposals: 18.25
Goals: 0.23
GA: 0.3
Clearances: 2.88
Tackles: 3.33

Nowhere are there averages from games 40-80:

Disposals: 25.75
Goals: 0.35
GA: 0.50
Clearances: 5.35
Tackles: 4.25

And then averages from game 80+:

Disposals: 29.08
Goals: 0.43
GA: 0.63
Clearances: 6.10
Tackles: 4.6

In other words, whatever Dow is doing now he’ll be doing way more in games 40-80… and more again from game 80+.

So I think he’s shown enough to get another 12-months… if he boosts his stats the same ratio as these other players he will be a more than handy clearance midfielder for us.



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Don’t give us that sensible stuff.
I’m very happy with Dows season and look forward to his future. Not sure what the airheads in here are thinking

 

[Grrr]

I’m not suggesting he will become elite. But there’d barely be a single player who reaches 80+ games whose performances from games 40-80 were worse than games 0-40. So I hear constantly ‘but he only averages 16 touches’ or ‘he gets 3 clearances a game’ etc…as though that’s where his ceiling will be.

Give or take, so did those other 4 in their first 40 games.

LDU only started reaching significant heights as a player in 2022 … which was his 6th season with 50-games under his belt heading into the season.

Adam Cerra only got beyond a 17-disposal average in his 4th season… with 58-games under his belt. He averaged 13.7 / 15.4 / 17.4 his first 3 years … then 23.1.

Or Parish? 20 / 21 / 20 / 20 / 19 / 30 / 31 …. exploded year 6 with 93 games under his belt.


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And adding that this is Dow's first real crack at playing midfield. Prior to the last 3 games of last season and this season, he was mainly played across half forward / midfield / good amount of time on the bench. And he's been the senior mid almost in quite few of those games. Far easier to play good football in a good side, especially in the midfield where your fellow midfielders are winning a good amount of the ball as well. All our mids have done this year is chase dominant midfielder groups around the park.

This is not a pro-Dow post, he may or may have the talent, but you can't argue the above points (and the premise that you post), and you can't argue that playing for Richmond this year has been a hard slog, backs, mids or forwards.

 

[richoplzbreed]

My mate just sent me this. Htf does a then 73yo KB have a better rig than gym dodging Dow?

 

[Cam Payner]

#WhiteJON

 

[Tiger2709]

My mate just sent me this. Htf does a then 73yo KB have a better rig than gym dodging Dow?

View attachment 2030822

I think you're being a little unfair to the lad and he has a lot more hair so that's a positive.

 

[Cam Payner]

#TwiggyDone

 

[richoplzbreed]

I think you're being a little unfair to the lad and he has a lot more hair so that's a positive.
View attachment 2030844View attachment 2030848

Apples and oranges comparison. I see you had to cherry pick action shots to make Dow appear more magnificent. If I put up an action shot of KB carrying his fish n chip order on a Friday night, much less pouncing on a Tom Lynch crumb, the women would be swooning.

 

[Truetiger]

People saying he has no football ability. Must have some to play under 18s championship as well as junior representative pathway. How many of us had an invite to AFL National Draft Combine. None so he is already better than all of us here. As others have said not many players are stars under the 50 -80 game mark.

 

[Cam Payner]

People saying he has no football ability. Must have some to play under 18s championship as well as junior representative pathway. How many of us had an invite to AFL National Draft Combine. None so he is already better than all of us here. As others have said not many players are stars under the 50 -80 game mark.

I was invited but was busy that day....

 

[GoTigers2015]

Don't think Dow's ceiling is very high and more of depth player. Happy if he gets another year though to have more time to show if he can make it as a role player.

Also we can't get rid of every fringe player in one go as we will be struggling to free up spots next year. There would be a few ahead of Dow that would be cut at the end of the season.

 

[The Mighty]

Dud delist

#TwiggyDone

Twiggy Dud

 

[tiger_tough]

I ran some data on a selection of players who have been predominantly mids: Anderson, Brayshaw, Serong and LDU:

Averages from game 0-40 (combining all 4… who all had similar ratio’s):

Disposals: 18.25
Goals: 0.23
GA: 0.3
Clearances: 2.88
Tackles: 3.33

Nowhere are there averages from games 40-80:

Disposals: 25.75
Goals: 0.35
GA: 0.50
Clearances: 5.35
Tackles: 4.25

And then averages from game 80+:

Disposals: 29.08
Goals: 0.43
GA: 0.63
Clearances: 6.10
Tackles: 4.6

In other words, whatever Dow is doing now he’ll be doing way more in games 40-80… and more again from game 80+.

So I think he’s shown enough to get another 12-months… if he boosts his stats the same ratio as these other players he will be a more than handy clearance midfielder for us.



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Yeah but how long did it take those guys to get to 40 games? A 3rd year 40 gamer and a 5th year 40 gamer is not comparing apples and apples.

It will always takes worse players longer to reach miletones.....because they're not as good.

Oh and fair chance Dow doesn't reach his 40th until year 6. **** me we'll be calling him a journeyman soon enough.

 

[Madtiger2006]

People saying he has no football ability. Must have some to play under 18s championship as well as junior representative pathway. How many of us had an invite to AFL National Draft Combine. None so he is already better than all of us here. As others have said not many players are stars under the 50 -80 game mark.

There’s apparently 8 in here who won a brownlow. If you’re not a champion then you’re a dud lol. But personally I think they’re just dumb people who never won anything lol

 

[Growapair]

Not going to make it imo..
He can take a mark but that's not what he's there for.
His defensive side, kicking and decision-making are all below standard.
I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Growapair]

I ran some data on a selection of players who have been predominantly mids: Anderson, Brayshaw, Serong and LDU:

Averages from game 0-40 (combining all 4… who all had similar ratio’s):

Disposals: 18.25
Goals: 0.23
GA: 0.3
Clearances: 2.88
Tackles: 3.33

Nowhere are there averages from games 40-80:

Disposals: 25.75
Goals: 0.35
GA: 0.50
Clearances: 5.35
Tackles: 4.25

And then averages from game 80+:

Disposals: 29.08
Goals: 0.43
GA: 0.63
Clearances: 6.10
Tackles: 4.6

In other words, whatever Dow is doing now he’ll be doing way more in games 40-80… and more again from game 80+.

So I think he’s shown enough to get another 12-months… if he boosts his stats the same ratio as these other players he will be a more than handy clearance midfielder for us.



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Great stats but why wouldn't you include Dow's as comparison?

Here is the difference in Dow's career average vs your 0-40 game average

Disposals - 3.23
Goals - 0.23
GA Equal
Clearances - 1.33
Tackles - 1.22

I was going to multiply Dow's average by the factor of improvement that your selected players have shown over their career to project his ceiling but I didn't realize he was averaging zero goals. So that would be still be ...

Basically though your numbers show that he will hit 80 games and still not be averaging 20 possessions a game ...

Definitely not midfield numbers ...

Would suggest he be played at half forward where his clearance work and handball can create goals for others and his inability to gain metres by foot is less of a factor.

People saying he has no football ability. Must have some to play under 18s championship as well as junior representative pathway. How many of us had an invite to AFL National Draft Combine. None so he is already better than all of us here. As others have said not many players are stars under the 50 -80 game mark.

None? ... I kicked 4 goals one night under the bright lights at the MCG ... Dow has kicked 1 in 30+ games ... give it a rest ... he is a VFL footballer ... no shame in that

 

[tigs2010]

None so he is already better than all of us here.

May as well shut the forum then. What a ridiculous comment

 

[Madtiger2006]

Great stats but why wouldn't you include Dow's as comparison?

Here is the difference in Dow's career average vs your 0-40 game average

Disposals - 3.23
Goals - 0.23
GA Equal
Clearances - 1.33
Tackles - 1.22

I was going to multiply Dow's average by the factor of improvement that your selected players have shown over their career to project his ceiling but I didn't realize he was averaging zero goals. So that would be still be ...

Basically though your numbers show that he will hit 80 games and still not be averaging 20 possessions a game ...

Definitely not midfield numbers ...

Would suggest he be played at half forward where his clearance work and handball can create goals for others and his inability to gain metres by foot is less of a factor.


None ... I kicked 4 goals one night under the bright lights at the MCG ... Dow has kicked 1 in 30+ games ... give it a rest ... he is a VFL footballer ... no shame in that

What a bunch of crap lol

 

[Madtiger2006]

May as well shut the forum then. What a ridiculous comment

Well he’s pretty much 100% right but yeah go on

 

[tigs2010]

Well he’s pretty much 100% right but yeah go on

Lock the thread of every player under that number of games then. Truetiger Has the capability

 

[Madtiger2006]

Lock the thread of every player under that number of games then. Truetiger Has the capability

I’ll lock your head boy. Smash

 

[Growapair]

What a bunch of crap lol

I wouldn't be that hard on Dow ... he has his moments

 

[Coach_Required]

Dow is Gunna be our next Ross & Ralphsmith and I've bookmarked this thread for future LOL's

campaigners

 

[Truetiger]

Dow is Gunna be our next Ross & Ralphsmith and I've bookmarked this thread for future LOL's

campaigners

Funny most people had Ralphsmith delisted after most games. Sound familiar same with Dow.

 

[Madtiger2006]

Dow is Gunna be our next Ross & Ralphsmith and I've bookmarked this thread for future LOL's

campaigners

Both looking good so good times ahead sir

 

[Coach_Required]

Funny most people had Ralphsmith delisted after most games. Sound familiar same with Dow.

Just impatience, team is crap and supporters want a quick fix. If they aren't like Nick Daicos or Harley Reid then they are no good.