USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris (pt II)

[Mick F]

So the election is tomorrow! Time for everyone’s thoughts and predictions! (could be good to have a thread specifically for these as these will all be buried in a few minutes lol)

Anecdotally:
This is my third election in the US. I have basically only been here for the Trump era, and I am
in a republican leaning area of NYC so my snapshot is admittedly small.
But this election is notably lower key than the other two. 2016 was peak; there were multiple businesses around us flying Trump flags, lock her up, etc. 2020 was more muted, with far less open Trump support, but there was still a noticeable presence. This year, there is barely anything; there are of course a couple of Trump flags and signs in lawns around us, but I reckon I have seen more cybertrucks around than openly Trump houses. And conversations about the election are noticeably shorter and less passionate this time around.
If it wasn’t for the overwhelming early voting numbers, I would say I would be shocked if the number of votes exceeds 2020. I am not sure if its because early voting has more awareness/more accessible, so we are seeing an uptick of voters who would generally skip Tuesday, or if its because my area is its own bubble and the rest of the country is just as crazy as the media make it out to be.

The only factor which I have seen, that I have not heard anything talking about, is a likely change in the Jewish vote. A number of Jewish people I know, who were actually pretty liberal, have really felt the left in general turn against them since October 7th. There definitely seems a trend towards the middle if not all the way to Trump. However, the only place this is likely to make a potential mark is in Pennsylvania (or Florida if the Puerto Ricans actually do swarm for Harris).

The strategies:
Both parties have had an unconventional approach to this election, which could go a way to explaining why energy seems down but voting numbers are up. Whoever wins is going to look like geniuses, while the losers will look like idiots. Regardless of the merits in either strategy.

Democrats - have targeted republicans. The Republican party is mostly a cult now, and as you would expect, there are a small number of people who get isolated when they don’t drink the kool-aid. The democrats are hoping to sway them to vote blue rather than sit this one out. We are only talking about a few percent of people here, unfortunately, but in swing states that will be enough to get them over the line. The danger has been, will this cost them the vote of young leftists? The greens imploding into a confusing mess of far right ideals has certainly helped them here. I do see that last night, Kamala took a more solid pro-Palestinian position, which the cynic in me thinks was calculated to this strategy - lock up older republicans in the prepolling, and then pivot to their leftist base for on the day voting.

Republicans - They have gone after young men, primarily white but they are apparently doing surprisingly well with minorities here too. Think gamers, incels, Tater tots, frat boys, Crypto bros, etc. Basically anyone who watches Joe Rogan to exercise their mind. These people do lean republican, but are a low voting demographic, so if they do actually turn up, then that's a few more % that could get them over the line in the states that matter. This also explains the weird Squirrel thing; it means nothing to anyone except this demographic.

In short, while unconventional, Republicans are trying to energize their base while the Dems are trying to broaden theirs.

The Key:
Obviously Pennsylvania. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the election. There isn’t a realistic outcome where Pennsylvania goes blue and Trump wins. If he doesn’t get Penn, he’s not getting Wisconsin or Michigan.

If Trump wins Pennsylvania though, then it isn’t over but he is definitely in the box seat. Harris would need to win one of North Carolina, Georgia or Florida, all states they would be underdogs in (it would take a shock to win Florida), as well as hold on to the rest of the midwest. If Pennsylvania is actually called on the night to Trump, then this probably means he will flip at least one of WI or MI too, and win the election.

Polls:
I think its likely that the polls are skewing too far to Trump, because they are all trying to ensure they don’t underestimate his vote. I believe they are also likely to be counting non voting Trump supporters, while simultaneously they may be undercounting likely Harris voters, who are mostly energized to vote for abortion rights. (the latter, however, may be limited to ruby red states where this is an active issue, so may not have a big bearing on results).
There may also be an effect of people saying out loud they will vote Trump, when they will not. (the Dems likely have data for them to specifically and bizzarley encouraged wives to vote Harris and not tell their husbands, and Republicans also looked a bit worried when they pushed back on this). These are just hunches though. I could be way off. We will see I guess.

My Pediction:
Harris will win a relatively close one. It might look touch and go on the night, but it will be similar to Biden’s where once the dust settles, they could afford to lose a state or two in the shenanigans that follow, and still win. There might be some surprises in her favour, like Iowa and NC. I think Georgia will go red, but it hopefully won’t matter.

Unlikely Pennsylvania is ‘called’ on the night.

 

[Fire]

Unlikely Pennsylvania is ‘called’ on the night.

Exactly. That's why I said that if Trumps lead is so comfortable that it is actually called for him on the night, it means he will also pick up other states in the Midwest, and therefore wins.

 

[Mick F]

Exactly. That's why I said that if Trumps lead is so comfortable that it is actually called for him on the night, it means he will also pick up other states in the Midwest, and therefore wins.

My bad, I read it as ‘If Pennsylvania is (actually) called on the night’.

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[OneGreatClub]

Again I have to ask, how is this complete goose even in contention for president of the United States of America?

His gibberish got even worse over the past few hours. Perhaps that jail cell is coming more into focus for him?
Not sounding anywhere near as confident, just a little panicked..

Noone knows the result but I am hoping he gets his comeuppance. Even his panic is a joy to behold.

 

[raskolnikov]

 

[OneGreatClub]

View attachment 2158244

So much this, but hey, it’s America.

 

[Chief]

We had one trump supporter who argued for pages it wasnt tear gas .

Oh jeez I remember that.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Of course lol. ****ing crook and liar. But we knew that. He’s a Trumper.

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[OneGreatClub]

 

[Crankyhawk]

View attachment 2158244

i suppose they knew they were/ are ready for it in that they already had it..

 

[zumahawk]

View attachment 2158244

Anyone who supports and/or votes for him is mentally unwell and needs to own the fact they have no issue with sexual assault or corruption.

 

[The Dice Man]

Again I have to ask, how is this complete goose even in contention for president of the United States of America?

You could ask the same question about the laughing hyena.

A complete goose vs a laughing hyena.

 

[GreyCrow]

If it's 60 minutes, how can you believe anything. They have zero credibility after creatively editing the Kamala interview.

Good little botnik

So they have never edited anybody - including Trump - before?

Its a stupid little side piece which all you UIs have come on board with

Where is your awareness of media?

 

[Scallop Industry Thug]

You could ask the same question about the laughing hyena.

A complete goose vs a laughing hyena.

He’s not a cartoon character. He’s a fascist and this movement is dangerous.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[zumahawk]

You could ask the same question about the laughing hyena.

A complete goose vs a laughing hyena.

Her biggest crime is that she laughs?

 

[carltonchelsea]

Nearly Grand Final day for us politics nerds.

So many storylines to come out of this election.

Here’s hoping Kamala is BrizVegas

 

[GreyCrow]

Third World Election

 

[Captivating]

As they say, Election will be the real winner

 

[The Dice Man]

Her biggest crime is that she laughs?

No. It’s her incompetence.

 

[pebblesofsand]

H L Mencken 1920

"The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality.

But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt, then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.

The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people.

We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

 

[Gough]

He’s not a cartoon character. He’s a fascist and this movement is dangerous.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Only supports Trump because Harris is so bad, it's like a child having a tantrum and screaming that you made them do this. It's nearly election day chaps, time to own your hate.

 

[OneGreatClub]

The older female vote.