Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Jagga Smith will be in there for the first centre bounce against the Tigers. Bookmark it.

Agreed. Should immediately take Kennedys midfield minutes which were not insubstantial. Would like him to play 30% of CBAs from game 1 with stints on the half forward rotating with Holland's playing about 20% CBAs

Cripps - 70%
Walsh - 70%
Hewett - 60%
Cerra - 50%
Smith - 30%
Hollands - 20%

 

[HarryFlashman]

Agreed. Should immediately take Kennedys midfield minutes which were not insubstantial. Would like him to play 30% of CBAs from game 1 with stints on the half forward rotating with Holland's playing about 20% CBAs

Cripps - 70%
Walsh - 70%
Hewett - 60%
Cerra - 50%
Smith - 30%
Hollands - 20%

Yeah, Nah…
Crippa, Lord, Cerra doing the bulk - Walsh, Jagga heavily rolling thru
Cinc if we are running a tag & pick your occasional cameo from anyone else wanting a crack.

Speed kills, time to step it up & change the look.
We have speed on the outside & coming from the back, I want to see it used.
Doc/Saad coming off the back move pretty bloody quick
Doc in a straight line can still move like he means it

 

[marcmurphy3]

High half forward, with occasional centre bounce best spot early days for Jagga. Will cause havoc up forward - I'll back him to have more goal assists than Grian Myers

Bang on. I think he could play half back too but think we are covered there. Maybe stints on the wing too.

 

[ctwenty1]

i assume Brisbane is our best trade partner for pick 40 if required?

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

They supposedly had their future 1st on the table for every pick from StKilda at pick 8 according to afl.com.au. There were no takers till late on.


I quite like their move. They've backed themselves and their midfield to move up the ladder next year. So if they can finish 12th and the Tigers finish last (very likely) and you take out academy selections etc they will have given up 6 for Whitlock and 19 and a years development of a KPD.

It all depends on how good Whitlock becomes.

Same. If NM had him at 15 for example it's akin to 15 and future 20 for future 5-7...in a supposedly weaker draft.

I don't understand the derision. Sound calculated risk given their list profile.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We’ve committed to taking Lucas in the ND

ok, I'm obv wrong about that then.

Either way, we're in a very good spot right now with the way the first round panned out.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Same. If NM had him at 15 for example it's akin to 15 and future 20 for future 5-7...in a supposedly weaker draft.

I don't understand the derision. Sound calculated risk given their list profile.

Because if they planned to get an extra pick to take him, they could have traded out the future 1st for hell of a lot more or been a lot smarter about it.

Dogs 35 & 48 got them Bris 27 - North was chasing 27

Just look at that trade & tell me it was smart to trade a top 10 pick

 

[DangerousD]

I really like it

They have Sheezel Wardlaw McKercher Duursma Bergman Phillips Archer Goater George Curtis and now FOS. They have more than enough young talent.

This is added to Larkey LDU Simpkin Zuurhaar Xerri Parker McDonald Logue Comben Scott & Daniel.

The time to start moving up is now. They needed a tall forward to develop next to Larkey and they got their man.

They now have all the pieces to start moving up

This is why I’d love to see where clubs rate players, a poster here raised the idea of a draft time capsule where every club submits their rankings and it’s opened on draft night a year or two later.

Maybe North had Whitlock top 20

 

[Tom14]

i assume Brisbane is our best trade partner for pick 40 if required?

Yes.



(We'll use at most 2 of these picks).

 

[ctwenty1]

Yes.

View attachment 2171472

(We'll use at most 2 of these picks).

If we need, I think we trade 40 back to Lions for picks post our 55

Then trade back in at 47 or 49 after Lions have taken two at 40 and 46 or 3 if 47 is used as well

 

[Blue__Balls]

Fathers and sons and academy players don't matter though. They wont have access to them regardless. It will still be the 19th best player available to them.

Couple of ways to look at it, I give you that. Ultimately though, if you use this draft as an example - what you're seeing is Pick 19 has already slid out to 29. Regardless of whether that's because of Academy and Father/Son players, you still need to consider that the pick you're bringing in is getting you a player rated further back in the pecking order than it would appear on face value.

Regardless of whether players are tied to other clubs, if you have one pick you only get one player, and you want that player to be the best possible. The kid rated 29th in the draft is, statistically speaking, going to be a worse prospect than the kid that gets picked at 19.

NM have potentially traded a top 5 pick for two kids who will be selected in the late 20s of their respective drafts....that's not great.

 

[Stamos]

Because if they planned to get an extra pick to take him, they could have traded out the future 1st for hell of a lot more or been a lot smarter about it.

Dogs 35 & 48 got them Bris 27 - North was chasing 27

Just look at that trade & tell me it was smart to trade a top 10 pick

Dogs got the current #31 in that trade, but your point stands.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Because if they planned to get an extra pick to take him, they could have traded out the future 1st for hell of a lot more or been a lot smarter about it.

Dogs 35 & 48 got them Bris 27 - North was chasing 27

Just look at that trade & tell me it was smart to trade a top 10 pick

Maybe so...I'd imagine they explored a few scenarios in the weeks since trade week ended.

The market for 25 picks seems fairly tepid. Sydney and GWS seemingly preferred absolute bolters to NMs future first.

 

[TENACIOUS]

I’d be spewing… North paid up for Whitlock…

Out: F(Top 5) pick
In: Whitlock (27) and F19

Probably should have demanded Pick 28, instead of F19

 

[Stamos]

Mic'd Up | Inside draft night as Jagga Smith becomes a Blue!

2024 Telstra AFL Draft, night one, as it happened: see the inner workings and discussions of how Jagga Smith became a Carlton player.

www.carltonfc.com.au

 

[The Defender]

Interesting sounds like we rated him no.1 on our rankings.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Feeling reasonably confident that there won't be a bid on Ben before our next pick now.

Plenty of talent still on the board which will entice clubs. The Saints appear to be not intetested - would be a strange move to have traded up to then bid when they could just have kept their original picks for the same. Would be a terrible look if they did.

Potentially port with their two picks could but Campo was a Crows coach for some time so there is no natural affinity and it would look a bit petty.

Fingers crossed. Would be a dream outcome with no bid but I'm sure we have some contingency plans in place with our picks coming in regardless.

I think the Aints will bid, they needed mids and haven’t chosen any yet…Aints board is losing it.

Only reason they may not is another mid ahead on their list is still available


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[DangerousD]

Couple of ways to look at it, I give you that. Ultimately though, if you use this draft as an example - what you're seeing is Pick 19 has already slid out to 29. Regardless of whether that's because of Academy and Father/Son players, you still need to consider that the pick you're bringing in is getting you a player rated further back in the pecking order than it would appear on face value.

Regardless of whether players are tied to other clubs, if you have one pick you only get one player, and you want that player to be the best possible. The kid rated 29th in the draft is, statistically speaking, going to be a worse prospect than the kid that gets picked at 19.

NM have potentially traded a top 5 pick for two kids who will be selected in the late 20s of their respective drafts....that's not great.

NM may have had Whitlock as a top 15 prospect and think they have a bargain, GWS selected a kid ranked in the 80s with their pick around 23.

Just becsusre someone is picked at a number, doesn’t mean that’s where they are rated.

They probably could have got more but if they then pick the same player, no one would bat an eye

 

[VainGlorious]

I just realised the pick North traded for Caleb Daniel is only 2 picks after the one they just swapped their F1 for. A tall, probably even the one they just picked would have been available there.

In short, they traded their F1 for Caleb Daniel.

 

[VainGlorious]

If North stack 2 Caleb Daniel

35

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

’s atop one another they won’t need to draft another tall.

 

[Stamos]

NM may have had Whitlock as a top 15 prospect and think they have a bargain, GWS selected a kid ranked in the 80s with their pick around 23.

Just becsusre someone is picked at a number, doesn’t mean that’s where they are rated.

They probably could have got more but if they then pick the same player, no one would bat an eye

Apparently West Coast offered 30 + 2 x F2 (WC + Haw) for 24 + F2 (GWS) and Giants said no to take Angove.

 

[Arr0w]

Understand that we may want to commit to both Ben and Lucus on the main list, as a feel good moment, maybe TTP wise

Personally if Lucas doesn't cop a bid I'd add him as a rookie, as he still has tge same playing rights and we can negotiate a different contract on his extension

Then I would contact Ethan Phillips and advise him that if Lucas looks like heading to the rookie list, we can satisfy his requirements/contract on the main list

 

[marcmurphy3]

If I was Richmond I would trade tonights pick. Theyll get massive overs again. Could really set themselves up for next year.

You could see on the broadcast they got 4-5 phone calls with offers before they locked in that trade.

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[ctwenty1]

collingwood getting busy in the draft tonight...