List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

[OccamsRazorRay]

Article this morning ranking players output from last year to this year by Champion Data

9 players playing worse
8 playing better
Another 26 not ranked because they didn't play enough last year and/or this year to be ranked (there's a min game played).

Improvers are
Butts +45%
Scholl +28%
Rankine +22%
Soligo +18%
Worrell +16%
Hinge +16%
Michalanney +16%
Fogarty +2%

Decliners
Walker -23%
Murphy -22%
Smith -20%
Keays -20%
Jones -15%
Rachele -15%
Dawson -10%
Laird -9%
ROB -7%

Walker and Smith you could chalk up to age, Walker and Rachele also due to our inability to get the ball forward, which might actually make the slight improvement from Fog a bit more impressive. Murphy, Keays and Jones should be a worry given their age/experience level.

Pretty damning, isn't it?

Walker and Smith were always going to drop off eventually, but the degree to which Smith has dropped off this year has been pretty incredible. You would think HB's would have a little more longevity. In nearly every facet of his game he's dropped off, particularly in his offence. His run and carry has basically ceased to exist.

I went to a function earlier this year where Rory Laird was talking at the Alma, and he was discussing other players like Nick Daicos, but speaking about them in a way where he literally sounded defeated, almost conceding the speed of the game has gone past him. They spoke to him about not being a full time mid anymore and how he felt about it. He didn't run the usual 'happy to do whatever for the team' line, and genuinely sounded annoyed about 'chopping and changing' constantly....

I think we played quite well last year, but I do think the emergence of other players like Soligo and Nankervis has upset the apple cart of experienced players who feel like they're entitled to be first 22. These same players have probably coasted during the rebuild and flying under the radar whilst younger players get games into them..

There's every reason to believe Walker might only have 1 more year, and Smith might be gone end of the year too....

It's a crying shame we haven't been able to perform this year because we really wanted to put ourselves in the shop window. No way anyone is going to want to come to us at this stage unless a fat wad of cash is waived in front of them, and even then probably not.

I personally think Keays has dropped off since not being asked to rotate through the midfield anymore, he's stagnated in the HF role, and Rachele could probably have a stint just concentrating on playing forward instead becoming a midfield superstar. Murphy and Jones.... i've run out of ideas

 

[Dangerousfield]

Tried to pick a best 23 for 2025 (assuming we trade ROB and get Moyle or another ruck)...

B: Hamill, Murray, Hinge
HB: Worrell, Keane, Milera
C: Nankervis, Soligo, Curtin
HF: Rachele, Fogarty, Keays
FF: Tex (no more than 15 games), Thilthorpe, Dawson
R: Moyle (or whoever we trade in), Michalanney, Rankine
I: Sholl, Dowling, Taylor, 2 of Pedlar/Cook/Borlase/Butts/Laird/Ryan/Edwards (depends on matchups and form)

Could add Welsh and our top 5 pick into the depth mix too, but hard to make calls there yet. Would love to add a Perryman or Cumming into the mix too, but again can't make calls there yet.

Best 23 and still a lot of question marks on whether a significant number of those will be fit in 2023 and can play at the level when the heat is turned up, ala Swans last half last week - Hamill, Milera, Curtin, Rach, Fog, Tex, the full interchange list. Jury still out on so many

 

[GreyCrow]

Tried to pick a best 23 for 2025 (assuming we trade ROB and get Moyle or another ruck)...

B: Hamill, Murray, Hinge
HB: Worrell, Keane, Milera
C: Nankervis, Soligo, Curtin
HF: Rachele, Fogarty, Keays
FF: Tex (no more than 15 games), Thilthorpe, Dawson
R: Moyle (or whoever we trade in), Michalanney, Rankine
I: Sholl, Dowling, Taylor, 2 of Pedlar/Cook/Borlase/Butts/Laird/Ryan/Edwards (depends on matchups and form)

Could add Welsh and our top 5 pick into the depth mix too, but hard to make calls there yet. Would love to add a Perryman or Cumming into the mix too, but again can't make calls there yet.

Tex is delist for me - and no it is NOT his decision - Cook could be his replacement

Milera I would have on the bench and put Nankervis in his spot - this leaves a wing free for any of the others you mention - if not Nankervis then Laird

 

[MRB37]

Pretty damning, isn't it?

Walker and Smith were always going to drop off eventually, but the degree to which Smith has dropped off this year has been pretty incredible. You would think HB's would have a little more longevity. In nearly every facet of his game he's dropped off, particularly in his offence. His run and carry has basically ceased to exist.

I went to a function earlier this year where Rory Laird was talking at the Alma, and he was discussing other players like Nick Daicos, but speaking about them in a way where he literally sounded defeated, almost conceding the speed of the game has gone past him. They spoke to him about not being a full time mid anymore and how he felt about it. He didn't run the usual 'happy to do whatever for the team' line, and genuinely sounded annoyed about 'chopping and changing' constantly....

I think we played quite well last year, but I do think the emergence of other players like Soligo and Nankervis has upset the apple cart of experienced players who feel like they're entitled to be first 22. These same players have probably coasted during the rebuild and flying under the radar whilst younger players get games into them..

There's every reason to believe Walker might only have 1 more year, and Smith might be gone end of the year too....

It's a crying shame we haven't been able to perform this year because we really wanted to put ourselves in the shop window. No way anyone is going to want to come to us at this stage unless a fat wad of cash is waived in front of them, and even then probably not.

I personally think Keays has dropped off since not being asked to rotate through the midfield anymore, he's stagnated in the HF role, and Rachele could probably have a stint just concentrating on playing forward instead becoming a midfield superstar. Murphy and Jones.... i've run out of ideas

Last few months Keays goal scoring has completely dried up too. 12 goals in the first 8 rounds (1.5 per game), down to 3 goals over the last 6 games (0.5 per game).

That goal scoring ability was probably the cherry on top of his game that kept him in the side, but without it he's struggling to make an impact.

 

[Crow till I die]

Last few months Keays goal scoring has completely dried up too. 12 goals in the first 8 rounds (1.5 per game), down to 3 goals over the last 6 games (0.5 per game).

That goal scoring ability was probably the cherry on top of his game that kept him in the side, but without it he's struggling to make an impact.

Turn him into a genuine tagger. They are coming back into vogue and he has all the attributes to make a good one

 

[Vader]

I've done a bit more analysis of the 1st round draft picks (2014-23 drafts):

Club	1-5	6-10	1-10	11+	Total	Drafts with 1st Round Picks
Adelaide	1​	4​	5​	11​	16​	10​
Brisbane	4​	0​	4​	10​	14​	8​
Carlton	3​	2​	5​	9​	14​	8​
Collingwood	2​	2​	4​	6​	10​	7​
Essendon	3​	4​	7​	4​	11​	7​
Fremantle	2​	6​	8​	3​	11​	7​
GWS	6​	4​	10​	16​	26​	10​
Geelong	0​	2​	2​	5​	7​	6​
Gold Coast	7​	10​	17​	6​	23​	10​
Hawthorn	1​	3​	4​	5​	9​	6​
Melbourne	4​	2​	6​	6​	12​	7​
North Melbourne	7​	1​	8​	7​	15​	9​
Port Adelaide	1​	0​	1​	8​	9​	5​
Richmond	0​	1​	1​	6​	7​	6​
St Kilda	2​	3​	5​	6​	11​	8​
Sydney	4​	1​	5​	8​	13​	10​
West Coast	1​	1​	2​	5​	7​	6​
Western Bulldogs	2​	3​	5​	5​	10​	8​

Things of note...

• GWS and Gold Coast are the undisputed Kings of the 1st round, with 26 & 23 selections respectively. At least GWS have the grace to make a reasonable number of those picks late in the round. 74% of Gold Coast's 1st round picks have been in the top-10, with 30% of them being top-5.
• Adelaide are the Princes of the late 1st round, with 11x picks in the 11+ range - only GWS (with a ridiculous 16) have taken more in this range. Brisbane is the only other club with double-digit picks in the 11+ range.
• Only Adelaide, GWS, Gold Coast and Sydney selected a player in the 1st round every year. At the other end of the scale, Port only used a 1st round selection in 5 of the 10 years.
• North had 5x 1st round selections in 2023. There are many instances of clubs making 4x 1st round selections, but I suspect no other club has made 5 since the 2010 (Gold Coast) and 2011 (GWS) drafts.
• Richmond & West Coast supporters have reason for concern, given that they've only used 7x 1st round selections over the last decade. Geelong have also only used 7x 1st round selections, but they've compensated by luring obscene numbers of free agents.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Geelong luring an obscene number of Free Agents - easy to do with their Costa Living Allowance getting players into can't fail property deals!

Think the numerical analysis of first round picks shows up our poor drafting over the last decade

 

[Vader]

Geelong luring an obscene number of Free Agents - easy to do with their Costa Living Allowance getting players into can't fail property deals!

Think the numerical analysis of first round picks shows up our poor drafting over the last decade

I think there are 3 factors at work here...

1. Talent identification
2. Needs Analysis - identifying the "type" of players we need to be drafting, which then affects the rankings on our talent order
3. Player development

Personally, I think the failings have primarily been in the Needs Analysis and Player Development areas.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Article this morning ranking players output from last year to this year by Champion Data

9 players playing worse
8 playing better
Another 26 not ranked because they didn't play enough last year and/or this year to be ranked (there's a min game played).

Improvers are
Butts +45%
Scholl +28%
Rankine +22%
Soligo +18%
Worrell +16%
Hinge +16%
Michalanney +16%
Fogarty +2%

Decliners
Walker -23%
Murphy -22%
Smith -20%
Keays -20%
Jones -15%
Rachele -15%
Dawson -10%
Laird -9%
ROB -7%

Walker and Smith you could chalk up to age, Walker and Rachele also due to our inability to get the ball forward, which might actually make the slight improvement from Fog a bit more impressive. Murphy, Keays and Jones should be a worry given their age/experience level.

Doesn't say much about most of our leadership group...

 

[CryptoCrow]

The other part was '' yeah havent made my mind up yet''

Its up to the club Tex

I think his statement implies it's really not

 

[CryptoCrow]

We still have to play Sydney TWICE, GWS, Essendon away, Brisbane away, Geelong away..... Anyone who thinks we won't finish bottom 4 is kidding themselves.

If this indeed is a gun draft for mids, you would consider trading next years first into this years to get Draper and another gun.

Hopefully a new recruiting boss, new coach and new development coaches we can get these kids fast tracked.

Gun mid draft, anyone wanna take bets we draft a kpp with our 1st pick

 

[CryptoCrow]

Call me crazy, but I’d trade Rachele in a heartbeat.

Me too but not while Hamish and Reid are in charge. With a good list manager and recruitment team Rach would bring value, he's skilful but really doesn't have any heart or toughness in him, that cannot be taught

 

[GreyCrow]

I think his statement implies it's really not

No. It really is up to the club

Are you saying if Tex says yeah I wanna go another year the club should just lay down and screw any list management plans?

 

[GreyCrow]

Me too but not while Hamish and Reid are in charge. With a good list manager and recruitment team Rach would bring value, he's skilful but really doesn't have any heart or toughness in him, that cannot be taught

Keep Tex get rid of Rachele

What are people smoking

 

[CryptoCrow]

That’s grim. We can’t trade in high level interstate players, and we have often struggled to keep the ones we draft. We need to over-invest in SA talent ID. An inexperienced part timer seems inadequate (but explains a lot).

I think we have been very negligent as a club to overlook local boys and prioritise interstate recruits. Not only to avoid the go home factor but more importantly from a development pathway. I get picking the best available talent but it has to be outstanding, if it's not clearcut then I would always pick the local IMO.

 

[CryptoCrow]

No. It really is up to the club

Are you saying if Tex says yeah I wanna go another year the club should just lay down and screw any list management plans?

I'm agreeing with you that it shouldn't be up to Tex but I'll wager that if he wants another year he will get it.

 

[GreyCrow]

I'm agreeing with you that it shouldn't be up to Tex but I'll wager that if he wants another year he will get it.

Apologies

My thoughts are we are not ruthless enough to sit a player down and say its time

No matter the status of the player. Great player legend of the club but its time to move on

 

[CryptoCrow]

The ratio of positive posts about Hamish on here would be under 1% surely.

Running at about 0.08 % atm

 

[Vader]

Gun mid draft, anyone wanna take bets we draft a kpp with our 1st pick

The problem is that we have needs all over the place - midfield, ruck, tall and small forwards.

Our midfield problems are well documented. Soligo is the only quality midfielder we've drafted in the last decade. We absolutely need to get a top quality midfielder into the team, ASAP, and preferably more than one.

Our ruck position is weak, with ROB in shocking form and Strachan proving to be no better. They're supported by a series of part timers, of decreasing quality - Thilthorpe (pretty decent) and Burgess (crap), followed by re-purposed KPF and KPDs (Walker, Gollant, Borlase). I was calling for us to draft a ruckman 2 years ago. Now the window is almost closed, and we're getting desperate.

With Walker on the verge of retirement, and Himmelberg almost certainly heading to GWS as a FA, our tall forward stocks are down to Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Burgess, Gollant, and Welsh (2024 F/S selection). Of those Gollant is highly likely to be delisted, and Burgess would follow him out the door if he was uncontracted (we don't know how long his contract is) and our situation wasn't desperate. Things have been so bad this year (with Walker, Thilthorpe & Berg all injured) that we've had to resort to throwing Borlase forward, and Borlase's kicking for goal makes ROB look like Tony Lockett.

Then we come to the small forwards and mid/forwards. Rankine & Rachele are quality, and Keays is competent, but it's all downhill from there. Murphy, McHenry, and Schoenberg have all been tried and found wanting. Cook isn't doing too badly at present. Taylor might be worth a try, but the reality is that we have a definite shortage of quality in this area of the ground.

So... which areas DO we have well covered? We have a plethora of quality KPDs - Murray, Butts, Keane and (to a lesser extent) Borlase are all good enough to get the job done. We have a reasonable number of mid/small defenders, led by the excellent Worrell and Michelanney, supported by the likes of Hinge, Milera (when he's not injured), Jones, Hamill, and with Curtin still developing. I guess it's no surprise that our back line is stacked, given the resources we've poured into it in recent years.

 

[CryptoCrow]

Would be nice to have one developing though.

I'm starting to come round regarding English. We should have a ton of cap space spare and it means we can focus our draft capital on the midfield.

The absolute hot tip is that English is already agreed to sign with WCE

 

[Vader]

Apologies

My thoughts are we are not ruthless enough to sit a player down and say its time

No matter the status of the player. Great player legend of the club but its time to move on

I think his current back problems are his body's way of giving him that message anyway - without the need for any intervention from the club.

 

[Vader]

Running at about 0.08 % atm

I'm not anti-Hamish. I blame Godden. Sack Godden!

 

[LoBu]

They are Nicks traits.
Ogilvie picks plenty of 'skill' players - Nicks rewards and plays the 'try' players.

Got any examples of that? Players stuck in the Bs that have form and fitness?

I would have thought it's the other way around, Nicks started with a team of tryers and has been transitioning to a skillful team, still a way to go as the skilled players learn to be defensive when required.

 

[CryptoCrow]

Take a good look at what we could get out of North Melb. There's plenty of talent at North

Do you think North will take Ned and Murphy for a bag of chips?

 

[Mutineer]

The problem is that we have needs all over the place - midfield, ruck, tall and small forwards.

Our midfield problems are well documented. Soligo is the only quality midfielder we've drafted in the last decade. We absolutely need to get a top quality midfielder into the team, ASAP, and preferably more than one.

Our ruck position is weak, with ROB in shocking form and Strachan proving to be no better. They're supported by a series of part timers, of decreasing quality - Thilthorpe (pretty decent) and Burgess (crap), followed by re-purposed KPF and KPDs (Walker, Gollant, Borlase). I was calling for us to draft a ruckman 2 years ago. Now the window is almost closed, and we're getting desperate.

With Walker on the verge of retirement, and Himmelberg almost certainly heading to GWS as a FA, our tall forward stocks are down to Fogarty, Thilthorpe, Burgess, Gollant, and Welsh (2024 F/S selection). Of those Gollant is highly likely to be delisted, and Burgess would follow him out the door if he was uncontracted (we don't know how long his contract is) and our situation wasn't desperate. Things have been so bad this year (with Walker, Thilthorpe & Berg all injured) that we've had to resort to throwing Borlase forward, and Borlase's kicking for goal makes ROB look like Tony Lockett.

Then we come to the small forwards and mid/forwards. Rankine & Rachele are quality, and Keays is competent, but it's all downhill from there. Murphy, McHenry, and Schoenberg have all been tried and found wanting. Cook isn't doing too badly at present. Taylor might be worth a try, but the reality is that we have a definite shortage of quality in this area of the ground.

So... which areas DO we have well covered? We have a plethora of quality KPDs - Murray, Butts, Keane and (to a lesser extent) Borlase are all good enough to get the job done. We have a reasonable number of mid/small defenders, led by the excellent Worrell and Michelanney, supported by the likes of Hinge, Milera (when he's not injured), Jones, Hamill, and with Curtin still developing. I guess it's no surprise that our back line is stacked, given the resources we've poured into it in recent years.

ROB being no better?

I don't think he's ever been totally obliterated like Strachan on the weekend?

48 - 16 hit outs

19 - 4 centre clearances