List Mgmt. 2024 List Management Part 2 📃

[jj1978]

Top 50 draft prospects in the Hun today. Campo twins ranked 34 & 45.

 

[Accidental genius]

Hawks managing to get a lot of good trades done…

Chol ambrosio etc

And now potentially landing barass

 

[eaglevision]

sounds like he's all but signed with Hawks...

He's a terrific player and I'd certainly use our first plus whatever else - players to get him to us.

They are currently in front but can assure you it’s far from a done deal. He’s contracted for another 3 years and if another Melbourne club offered WCE better picks then the Hawks would be asked to match equivalent or he won’t be traded to them. TB is open to any Melbourne club but preferably one playing finals. I’d say Blues would be towards the top of his list.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

In no particular order. On the premise our window is now....

Ins:

1. Barrass/J Guv/another of that ilk.
2. Haynes
3. Ryan/Fritsch or any proven 3rd/4th tall.
4. The Campos.
5. Ruckman (who can mark/kick around the ground - not a kid). Mac Andrew?
6. The other Irishman.
7. A quick mid. not a kid.


Outs:
1. Cuners
2. Marchy
3. Martin (or keep him on minimal $)
4. Fantasia (dumb, dumb decision to pick him up)
5. M Carroll (bad, bad luck)
6. J Carroll (if we need help in getting Eagles players in)
7. Owies (as a trade if the price is great) - prefer to keep.
8. Pitto - trade. Enough already.
9. S. Durdin.


Marginal:

1. Dom A.
2. Mirkov - must play this weekend in the 1s.
3. Boyd.

 

[goreds]

We've got 5 and a half.
Cripps, Charlie, H, Weiters, Walsh and TDK

Delist:
Marchy
Cunners
Martin
S. Durdin
Mirkov
Akuei
M Carroll

Trade:
Owies

Possible trade:
J Carroll
Kennedy
Binns

All fair on the list for trades and delists!

Disagree on the stars, only have Cripps and Charlie.

TDK, not there yet (starting to show injury concerns)
H, love him but he’s no Kernahan
Weiters, inconsistent and injury concerns
Walsh, this is my biggest concern, injury is going to limit him as is playing out right in front of our eyes. Forwards with back issues can get away with it, midfielders last 5 games. He’s going at 75% and that might be the ceiling for him now.

On the delists, not sure we can delist Martin, Cunners and Marchy as the ‘back ups’ are no where near their quality and they’re not stars!

Find me a decent kicker to trade for!!

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Not going to pretend to know your list better than posters in here but curious to know why that would be your strategy? You’ve got a list ready for a flag, seems a second KPD is an area of need and recent history shows that elite ones don’t go to market very often. WCE are in a position to contribute salary to what is likely a tight cap.

You’re getting a couple of good mids (especially Ben) through FS already, would of thought the 2 boys and Barrass would be a pretty good haul.

Again, not a criticism or trying to argue a view, more a question for my own knowledge of your list strategy.

We will take Haynes as a stop gap cheap option and invest in bringing in youth. Our top 15 match all other clubs when they are fit and firing but after that, our depth falls away badly and we have plenty of areas of issues no matter how close people think we are to a flag.

The Campo boys are ranked outside the top 30 so there’s no guarantee there that they will be guns so we need to hit the draft and continue to bring in cheaper options

 

[macky99]

In no particular order. On the premise our window is now....

Ins:

1. Barrass/J Guv/another of that ilk.
2. Haynes
3. Ryan/Fritsch or any proven 3rd/4th tall.
4. The Campos.
5. Ruckman (who can mark/kick around the ground - not a kid). Mac Andrew?
6. The other Irishman.
7. A quick mid. not a kid.


Outs:
1. Cuners
2. Marchy
3. Martin (or keep him on minimal $)
4. Fantasia (dumb, dumb decision to pick him up)
5. M Carroll (bad, bad luck)
6. J Carroll (if we need help in getting Eagles players in)
7. Owies (as a trade if the price is great) - prefer to keep.
8. Pitto - trade. Enough already.
9. S. Durdin.


Marginal:

1. Dom A.
2. Mirkov - must play this weekend in the 1s.
3. Boyd.

lnvesting in two players with age approx 29-32 and not going to a strong draft when we can find a quality mid is a receipe for disaster.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Not going to pretend to know your list better than posters in here but curious to know why that would be your strategy? You’ve got a list ready for a flag, seems a second KPD is an area of need and recent history shows that elite ones don’t go to market very often. WCE are in a position to contribute salary to what is likely a tight cap.

You’re getting a couple of good mids (especially Ben) through FS already, would of thought the 2 boys and Barrass would be a pretty good haul.

Again, not a criticism or trying to argue a view, more a question for my own knowledge of your list strategy.

Our only reason for going to the draft would be because we are hedging our bets on whether our list is good enough for a flag tilt. We are certainly the slowest of the contenders. If this group can't get there, the youth coming through are sparce.

I agree that Barrass would make us real contenders again, if we can add some genuine pace to the side from somewhere. It wouldn't take much.

However, the mill says we are looking at Haynes. Another undersized KPD/3rd defender type. It's unlikely we would do both.

Does Barrass have a relationship with Sam Mitchell though?

 

[Red_man2008]

Could we trade away Cerra for a first round pick and turn it into a third for MaCrae. Resetting the build a bit but having an extra 2 firsts to bring in some elite kicks that can defend the middle.

 

[Monty1978]

sounds like barass is already committed to the hawks… why can’t we overpay for someone young at the hawks … think outside the square and go after a young player with a big contract we feel will be star… have not really watched the hawks or those younger teams but someone like Weddle or a young kangas backman … worse case scenario it gets them thinking

 

[PezzDogg95]

They are currently in front but can assure you it’s far from a done deal. He’s contracted for another 3 years and if another Melbourne club offered WCE better picks then the Hawks would be asked to match equivalent or he won’t be traded to them. TB is open to any Melbourne club but preferably one playing finals. I’d say Blues would be towards the top of his list.

What is the deal with Harry Edwards?

Still unsigned, suppose he is waiting for the Barrass outcome and looking to milk $$$ out of it in contract negotiations. Heard tidbits that Vic clubs are chasing him, I'd expect that Carlton is one of them.

Would WC trade both Barrass and Edwards in same trade period? Noting Rotham may also be on the way out.

Would our future 2nd + Jack Carroll for Edwards and WC 4th be an appropraite deal?

 

[Monty1978]

Also how the f did hawks get ambrosio what a steal

 

[SOS Rules]

Given our recent history with coaches, we're locked in with Voss for at least another 12 months, whether we like it or not. I think we have the nucleus of a premiership team, and whilst I don't think Voss is incapable of coaching us to a premiership, I think he lacks the tactical nous to win a flag with a glaring list hole (e.g. Collingwoods Key Forwards in 2023) or a host of stars unavailable (e.g. WCE missing Sheppard, Gaff, Naitanui in 2018). Currently we have both. The slow ball movement, lacking an AFL standard 2nd key defender, and the injury list, collectively diminish our chances of winning a flag. However, it shouldn't take much to turn things around, look at what Hawthorn accomplished in the trade period last year. We have the core to contend we just need to restructure around the edges. This is how I would address each issue if I were given the keys to the club.

Perpetually Injured Blues
Adam Cerra - He's our 3rd best mid, but the never ending cycle of hamstring strains is frustrating. My rational brain is saying keep him, let's see if a new fitness boss can get him to stay out on the park. My impulsive brain is saying trade him, if we can find a club willing to give up a 1st rounder for him.

Zac Williams - He has lots of upside and zero currency, we'll just have to hope the next fitness boss can help him

Mitch McGovern - I've liked what Gov has produced over the last 2 years, keep him and hope for better durability

Orazio Fantasia - The decision to give him 2 years given our injury history is a head scratcher, delist in 2025

Sam Docherty - I love Doc, but we can never rely on him and I think he'll probably retire at the end of 2025

Jack Martin - Trade him, if there's a willing buyer. Delist if not.

Caleb Marchbank - Delist, he's a list clog, always has been and always will be, the decision to extend him was perplexing

David Cuningham - Delist (see Marchbank)

Other Trades/Delistings/Uncontracted Players
Jack Carroll - Trade/Delist

Matt Kennedy - We have four slow inside mids on our list (Cerra, Cripps, Hewett, Kennedy) and only two of them need to be in the 22, playing 3 of them is overkill and all 4 is just insanity. I'd trade Kennedy if there's any takers as I think he's the worst of the 4.

Marc Pittonet - I'd trade him if there's a decent offer on the table (a 2nd rounder or better, this is probably way too optimistic), but have no problems keeping him on the list. He's a good backup and who knows we might be able to explore playing 2 rucks again if the AFL brings in a 5 man bench or we fix our ball movement issues.

Sam Durdin - Delist

Dom Akuei - Delist

Matt Owies - Extend

Alex Mirkov - Delist

Ball Movement
This is our main issue. I have two pet hates right now, the first is the players who after taking a mark, use all their allotted before kicking it (this just allows the other team to set up their zone), sure it's sometimes warranted, but it can't be your default mode. The second is the players who never look to cut the angles and continually just blast it to a pack. This is mainly a skill issue, but I think it has something to do with coaching too. I think if the coaches mandated fast and aggressive ball use, we'd be able to raise our skill in this regard. I've identified some players that I think are part of the problem, I've given an exemption to some players who are playing in roles where they're not required to be a good field kick (e.g. Cripps, De Koning etc.). We don't need to drop all these guys, I think we could improve our ball movement markedly, if just 2-3 of them were replaced with elite users.

The Offenders
The Bad:
Nic Newman - He's a good kick (he has the occasional howler), but my criticism of him is just that he takes too long to move the ball.

Ollie Hollands - See Newman. I think this could be drilled out of him, if we placed more emphasis on faster ball movement.

Alex Cincotta - His line breaking is an asset to our ball movement, his kicking is not. He's currently operating at 57.6% kicking efficiency. He's one of many Carlton players who just blindly bombs it long.

Small Forwards - Collectively these guys are just too slow, it helps to have a Hill or Cameron to break lines and run into easy goals.

Midfield - Again too slow, as a collective they're terrible kicks too.

The Ugly:
Matt Kennedy - The worst rated kick for inside 50's in the comp, I don't think anymore needs to be said.

George Hewett - Lacks penetration in his kicking, this means he often handballs when he shouldn't.

Blake Acres - He frequently skies the ball to a pack, or blindly kicks it out of D50.

Brodie Kemp - He's in the bottom quintile for kicking efficiency among key defenders, and the top quintile for clangers.

Sam Walsh - His chain running ability should make him an asset to our ball movement, however, as we repeatedly kick it to congestion, and prefer a slow build up in transition, we take away that strength of his. Walsh's kicking efficiency is down on last year (49.6% vs 62.6%), is this simply explained by bad form or are we not maximising his strengths, by moving the ball quickly and allowing him to run into open space. It's noteworthy that his contested posessions are higher than last year, whilst his uncontested possessions are lower than last year.

Solutions
Shifting the Magnets/VFL Promotions
Jaxon Binns - Binns shares many physical similarities to Hollands, but is more offensively minded whereas Hollands and Acres have a defensive mindset. I think we need to change that balance, I'd prefer to play Binns and Hollands as our first choice wingers next year. Binns has a few attributes that could help us unlock our ball movement, some examples of which are a) low and hard kicks, which get to the target faster b) not afraid to look inside or to change angles c) he often takes marks and kicks it 1-2 seconds later, he doesn't take 10 seconds to go back 15m and assess all options d) after kicking the ball he runs hard to present for a 1-2 and often loses his man whilst doing so. You can see most of these attributes in the video I linked below, needless to say, I think it's criminal that he hasn't been rewarded for his stellar VFL form.


Billy Wilson - Has speed and he's a good kick, I hope he plays seniors next year.

Ashton Moir - I'm less bullish on Moir, but if he were to improve his workrate, he'd be an asset to our ball movement with his dual sided kicking.

Lachie Cowan - I love Cowan, so much so that I want to clone him and play him across every line. He breaks tackles with such ease that it makes me wonder if he might not be better utilised as a mid, it probably doesn't do anything for our ball movement. However, I don't think we experiment with positions enough, and he's one who I think could play anywhere, I'd trial him in the midfield and forward line, just to see if it leads to better output.

Trade/FA
Liam Ryan - There's some drawbacks with this guy, he's only played 1 full season, and he's never kicked more than 30 goals. However, he's tough and fast, and better than any small forward we have on our list. I'd take him in a heartbeat for a future 1st.

Dan Houston - Port Adelaide will ask for the world, and I'd prefer to have a strong draft hand this year, as I rate this crop. Also, we have a greater need for good ball users in the midfield and forward line as opposed to the backline.

Jack Lukosius - Pass

I'd also be interested in any fringe/moneyball players that use the ball well, but none come to mind right now.

Draft
Realistic Targets for our 1st pick

Xavier Lindsay - I see shades of Merrett and McCluggage in him. He's a beautiful kick and a left footer too which would add some much needed variety to our midfield. We're the only team in the comp that doesn't have a left footed wingman or onballer in our best 22 (Acres, Hollands, Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewett). I have him in my top 3 on a needs basis and top 10 on talent, Twomey has him ranked 16th in his latest form guide, so there's a good chance he's available at our pick (likely somewhere from 10-15).
I've linked some footage below if this has piqued your interest


Tobie Travaglia - A poor mans Nick Blakey imo, but that still makes him a very good prospect. Would give us another linebreaker off half back, and potentially allow us the flexibility to move someone like Wilson or even Saad up the ground.

Christian Moraes - Probably going to be a reach with our first, but he's a beautiful kick. I'd take him if Travaglia and Lindsay are off the board.

Joe Berry - Has speed and kicks goals, which I like. His field kicking is a little erratic which I don't like. I'd take him if the first three are off the board, but my preference would be to target small forwards with our later picks, or not at all if we land Liam Ryan.

F/S
Ben Camporeale - Not as hot on him as other Carlton supporters. I think he'd be ok value if bid on in the 50s, if Ben could kick he'd be a borderline top 10 prospect, but he kicks like Paddy Dow. We have enough of that in our midfield. I see him mostly as VFL depth.

Lucas Camporeale - I think Lucas has a higher ceiling than Ben, yes his output has been worse in u18s, but he can hit a target. Having said that, he seems overly cautious and passive with the ball in hand. I think you have a better chance of rectifying these flaws than kicking, which is why I have Lucas ahead.


Key Defender (options ranked in order of preference)
Trade/FA - No to Barrass, because WCE would want a 1st rounder. No to Haynes, he's old and undersized. Yes to Battle, because it would cost nothing, however, it's unlikely, as we lack the funds to compete with other suitors, and they're likely further down the road in negotiations. I think the best course is to go down the Moneyball path. I won't pretend to follow the state leagues closely enough to suggest candidates here. Anyone bigger than Kemp and better than Young/Durdin will do.

Shifting the Magnets - If the worst comes to worst and we can't land an upgrade, I'd try playing Silvagni as a defender. He's slightly taller than Kemp (although still undersized), and has acquitted himself well, in the few games he has played as a defender

Draft - I'd almost rule this out completely, because key position players take a while to develop and we're in position to contend now. I wouldn't say no to a developing KPD with a later pick, but I would prefer to use the earlier picks on kids who have elite disposal.

Conclusion
I think Austin knows that our ball movement has been an issue, hence the Wilson and Moir selections last year. However, I think he needs to take more drastic steps to address it. If he does and it doesn't lead to better performance next year or Voss persists with the one paced midfield, then I think we need to let Voss go. I think the positives of Austins tenure outweigh the negatives, his talent identification seems to be better than Silvagni's (you have to factor in the weaker hand), so I think we have a decent list manager, but this offseason will be telling. All in all, I think things could turn quite easily, kudos to anyone who reads all of this, you must be just as bored as I was when I wrote it.

Thanks for this. Food for thought and a good read. Not boring.

Hope the club are maxing out their brains about how we can resolve our current situation in a short space of time. Better ball movement and whole of team defence, another solid KPD, quicker more skilled midfield and an effervescent small forward (like Liam Ryan although could be Mots and Durds if they ever got a clear shot at it with an injury free season) are things we're crying out for.

 

[SOS Rules]

How about we manage our list by utilising what we have more effectively.

Kemp isn't a KPD(granted, there's nobody else atm)
Binns needs exposure, stop playing Hewett.
Young is a better ruck for the modern game than Pittonet

List is cooked.

Majorly.

Contested footy is dead.

Run, spread, maintain possession, foot-skills, athleticism.

Avoid the contest.

If we don't trade or draft for this and choose to bolster our contested beast stocks then we are toast for another 5 years.

That's the beauty of these next two matches. Great opportunity to trial new talent and also redeploy others in different positions. Let's not waste the opportunity. If we win the games as well then that is gold.

 

[GT619]

How would posters feel about the Blues putting an offer to Tom Barrass? At 28yo possibly a little older than you’d like but you’re certainly in the flag window with a fit list) and Barrass is ready to go. WCE would be open to contributing salary for better picks if the cap was an issue but with the rise next year it may not be.

Shame about the injuries on the weekend, was shaping to be a cracking game.

injuries remind of gws days. I think hawks because of the money offered

 

[Blue__Balls]

Has ben slipped that far? Wasn't he in the top 15 mix for a stretch

Overrating father/son and academy kids early in the year makes for great traction on articles and headlines.

Fans, and by extension journos, gravitate towards names they know. Drop an article about how the next generation Camporeales are killing it and Carlton look to potentially be getting two first round kids for a bunch of late picks, and you're gonna get a lot of clicks and a lot of social media engagement.

As the year progresses the journalistic goal shifts from generating engaging content to getting the draft order right for bragging rights.

 

[eaglevision]

What is the deal with Harry Edwards?

Still unsigned, suppose he is waiting for the Barrass outcome and looking to milk $$$ out of it in contract negotiations. Heard tidbits that Vic clubs are chasing him, I'd expect that Carlton is one of them.

Would WC trade both Barrass and Edwards in same trade period? Noting Rotham may also be on the way out.

Would our future 2nd + Jack Carroll for Edwards and WC 4th be an appropraite deal?

That would probably be his (management’s) strategy yes. I’d be shocked if WCE trade both in the same period, HEdwards will slot straight into TB’s spot if he goes. Rotham hopefully gets us band 5 compo but I doubt it.

If HEdwards wants to leave then your stead’s suggestion plus Pittonet might get it done but he’s showed a lot this season and would leave us with almost no KPDs so likely WCE would put what other clubs consider a high price on him.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

lnvesting in two players with age approx 29-32 and not going to a strong draft when we can find a quality mid is a receipe for disaster.

depends if you think we're in the window or not...

A kid taken at (say) 10 in the draft - it's a coin toss as to whether he'll make it./

That's what the data says.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

James Peatling, better than Berry from Adelaide.
Played the last 3 weeks in the guts for full games and has had 16 coaches votes.
Played 41 games over 3 years on the list and 11 of those as sub. Tough midfield to break into

Surely wouldn’t cost much


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[eaglevision]

Our only reason for going to the draft would be because we are hedging our bets on whether our list is good enough for a flag tilt. We are certainly the slowest of the contenders. If this group can't get there, the youth coming through are sparce.

I agree that Barrass would make us real contenders again, if we can add some genuine pace to the side from somewhere. It wouldn't take much.

However, the mill says we are looking at Haynes. Another undersized KPD/3rd defender type. It's unlikely we would do both.

Does Barrass have a relationship with Sam Mitchell though?

TB’s reason for moving to Melbourne (other than $$$) is that his sister and brother will be living there. Their father passed away a little while ago and they are very close. It’s more Hickmont than Mitchell but they did work together from Eagles days.

You do need speed but hard to have speed when Cripps and Walsh are so good in just about every other aspect of their role. One low cost player with elite speed that might appeal in a trade if Carroll is on the way out would be Jack Petruccelle. Mature body, pace to burn, great overhead and has kicked bags playing forward as well. If you watch the highlights of our R1 game vs Port you’ll see there’s a player there, just hasn’t really gone on with it in our system. Might change with a new coach.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

Hawks managing to get a lot of good trades done…

Chol ambrosio etc

And now potentially landing barass

Let’s not pretend anyone really cared when they managed to land those trades. They were seen as cheap cast offs at the time.

The impressive thing is Mitchell getting those cheap cast off players to play to their strengths and maximise their ability through the game plan.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

TB’s reason for moving to Melbourne (other than $$$) is that his sister and brother will be living there. Their father passed away a little while ago and they are very close. It’s more Hickmont than Mitchell but they did work together from Eagles days.

You do need speed but hard to have speed when Cripps and Walsh are so good in just about every other aspect of their role. One low cost player with elite speed that might appeal in a trade if Carroll is on the way out would be Jack Petruccelle. Mature body, pace to burn, great overhead and has kicked bags playing forward as well. If you watch the highlights of our R1 game vs Port you’ll see there’s a player there, just hasn’t really gone on with it in our system. Might change with a new coach.

I've thought about Petruccelle. We may be worried about his footskills and I don't know if he has a tank. He'd be fantastic for our turnover game. I'd do it ... would Voss?

 

[RAPPA]

Hawks managing to get a lot of good trades done…

Chol ambrosio etc

And now potentially landing barass

Plus Battle potentially, Significant improvement made to their backline. We'll be alright though, as there's sure to be a KPD available with a long injury history that we can snap up.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

Given our recent history with coaches, we're locked in with Voss for at least another 12 months, whether we like it or not. I think we have the nucleus of a premiership team, and whilst I don't think Voss is incapable of coaching us to a premiership, I think he lacks the tactical nous to win a flag with a glaring list hole (e.g. Collingwoods Key Forwards in 2023) or a host of stars unavailable (e.g. WCE missing Sheppard, Gaff, Naitanui in 2018). Currently we have both. The slow ball movement, lacking an AFL standard 2nd key defender, and the injury list, collectively diminish our chances of winning a flag. However, it shouldn't take much to turn things around, look at what Hawthorn accomplished in the trade period last year. We have the core to contend we just need to restructure around the edges. This is how I would address each issue if I were given the keys to the club.

Perpetually Injured Blues
Adam Cerra - He's our 3rd best mid, but the never ending cycle of hamstring strains is frustrating. My rational brain is saying keep him, let's see if a new fitness boss can get him to stay out on the park. My impulsive brain is saying trade him, if we can find a club willing to give up a 1st rounder for him.

Zac Williams - He has lots of upside and zero currency, we'll just have to hope the next fitness boss can help him

Mitch McGovern - I've liked what Gov has produced over the last 2 years, keep him and hope for better durability

Orazio Fantasia - The decision to give him 2 years given our injury history is a head scratcher, delist in 2025

Sam Docherty - I love Doc, but we can never rely on him and I think he'll probably retire at the end of 2025

Jack Martin - Trade him, if there's a willing buyer. Delist if not.

Caleb Marchbank - Delist, he's a list clog, always has been and always will be, the decision to extend him was perplexing

David Cuningham - Delist (see Marchbank)

Other Trades/Delistings/Uncontracted Players
Jack Carroll - Trade/Delist

Matt Kennedy - We have four slow inside mids on our list (Cerra, Cripps, Hewett, Kennedy) and only two of them need to be in the 22, playing 3 of them is overkill and all 4 is just insanity. I'd trade Kennedy if there's any takers as I think he's the worst of the 4.

Marc Pittonet - I'd trade him if there's a decent offer on the table (a 2nd rounder or better, this is probably way too optimistic), but have no problems keeping him on the list. He's a good backup and who knows we might be able to explore playing 2 rucks again if the AFL brings in a 5 man bench or we fix our ball movement issues.

Sam Durdin - Delist

Dom Akuei - Delist

Matt Owies - Extend

Alex Mirkov - Delist

Ball Movement
This is our main issue. I have two pet hates right now, the first is the players who after taking a mark, use all their allotted before kicking it (this just allows the other team to set up their zone), sure it's sometimes warranted, but it can't be your default mode. The second is the players who never look to cut the angles and continually just blast it to a pack. This is mainly a skill issue, but I think it has something to do with coaching too. I think if the coaches mandated fast and aggressive ball use, we'd be able to raise our skill in this regard. I've identified some players that I think are part of the problem, I've given an exemption to some players who are playing in roles where they're not required to be a good field kick (e.g. Cripps, De Koning etc.). We don't need to drop all these guys, I think we could improve our ball movement markedly, if just 2-3 of them were replaced with elite users.

The Offenders
The Bad:
Nic Newman - He's a good kick (he has the occasional howler), but my criticism of him is just that he takes too long to move the ball.

Ollie Hollands - See Newman. I think this could be drilled out of him, if we placed more emphasis on faster ball movement.

Alex Cincotta - His line breaking is an asset to our ball movement, his kicking is not. He's currently operating at 57.6% kicking efficiency. He's one of many Carlton players who just blindly bombs it long.

Small Forwards - Collectively these guys are just too slow, it helps to have a Hill or Cameron to break lines and run into easy goals.

Midfield - Again too slow, as a collective they're terrible kicks too.

The Ugly:
Matt Kennedy - The worst rated kick for inside 50's in the comp, I don't think anymore needs to be said.

George Hewett - Lacks penetration in his kicking, this means he often handballs when he shouldn't.

Blake Acres - He frequently skies the ball to a pack, or blindly kicks it out of D50.

Brodie Kemp - He's in the bottom quintile for kicking efficiency among key defenders, and the top quintile for clangers.

Sam Walsh - His chain running ability should make him an asset to our ball movement, however, as we repeatedly kick it to congestion, and prefer a slow build up in transition, we take away that strength of his. Walsh's kicking efficiency is down on last year (49.6% vs 62.6%), is this simply explained by bad form or are we not maximising his strengths, by moving the ball quickly and allowing him to run into open space. It's noteworthy that his contested posessions are higher than last year, whilst his uncontested possessions are lower than last year.

Solutions
Shifting the Magnets/VFL Promotions
Jaxon Binns - Binns shares many physical similarities to Hollands, but is more offensively minded whereas Hollands and Acres have a defensive mindset. I think we need to change that balance, I'd prefer to play Binns and Hollands as our first choice wingers next year. Binns has a few attributes that could help us unlock our ball movement, some examples of which are a) low and hard kicks, which get to the target faster b) not afraid to look inside or to change angles c) he often takes marks and kicks it 1-2 seconds later, he doesn't take 10 seconds to go back 15m and assess all options d) after kicking the ball he runs hard to present for a 1-2 and often loses his man whilst doing so. You can see most of these attributes in the video I linked below, needless to say, I think it's criminal that he hasn't been rewarded for his stellar VFL form.


Billy Wilson - Has speed and he's a good kick, I hope he plays seniors next year.

Ashton Moir - I'm less bullish on Moir, but if he were to improve his workrate, he'd be an asset to our ball movement with his dual sided kicking.

Lachie Cowan - I love Cowan, so much so that I want to clone him and play him across every line. He breaks tackles with such ease that it makes me wonder if he might not be better utilised as a mid, it probably doesn't do anything for our ball movement. However, I don't think we experiment with positions enough, and he's one who I think could play anywhere, I'd trial him in the midfield and forward line, just to see if it leads to better output.

Trade/FA
Liam Ryan - There's some drawbacks with this guy, he's only played 1 full season, and he's never kicked more than 30 goals. However, he's tough and fast, and better than any small forward we have on our list. I'd take him in a heartbeat for a future 1st.

Dan Houston - Port Adelaide will ask for the world, and I'd prefer to have a strong draft hand this year, as I rate this crop. Also, we have a greater need for good ball users in the midfield and forward line as opposed to the backline.

Jack Lukosius - Pass

I'd also be interested in any fringe/moneyball players that use the ball well, but none come to mind right now.

Draft
Realistic Targets for our 1st pick

Xavier Lindsay - I see shades of Merrett and McCluggage in him. He's a beautiful kick and a left footer too which would add some much needed variety to our midfield. We're the only team in the comp that doesn't have a left footed wingman or onballer in our best 22 (Acres, Hollands, Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, Kennedy, Hewett). I have him in my top 3 on a needs basis and top 10 on talent, Twomey has him ranked 16th in his latest form guide, so there's a good chance he's available at our pick (likely somewhere from 10-15).
I've linked some footage below if this has piqued your interest


Tobie Travaglia - A poor mans Nick Blakey imo, but that still makes him a very good prospect. Would give us another linebreaker off half back, and potentially allow us the flexibility to move someone like Wilson or even Saad up the ground.

Christian Moraes - Probably going to be a reach with our first, but he's a beautiful kick. I'd take him if Travaglia and Lindsay are off the board.

Joe Berry - Has speed and kicks goals, which I like. His field kicking is a little erratic which I don't like. I'd take him if the first three are off the board, but my preference would be to target small forwards with our later picks, or not at all if we land Liam Ryan.

F/S
Ben Camporeale - Not as hot on him as other Carlton supporters. I think he'd be ok value if bid on in the 50s, if Ben could kick he'd be a borderline top 10 prospect, but he kicks like Paddy Dow. We have enough of that in our midfield. I see him mostly as VFL depth.

Lucas Camporeale - I think Lucas has a higher ceiling than Ben, yes his output has been worse in u18s, but he can hit a target. Having said that, he seems overly cautious and passive with the ball in hand. I think you have a better chance of rectifying these flaws than kicking, which is why I have Lucas ahead.


Key Defender (options ranked in order of preference)
Trade/FA - No to Barrass, because WCE would want a 1st rounder. No to Haynes, he's old and undersized. Yes to Battle, because it would cost nothing, however, it's unlikely, as we lack the funds to compete with other suitors, and they're likely further down the road in negotiations. I think the best course is to go down the Moneyball path. I won't pretend to follow the state leagues closely enough to suggest candidates here. Anyone bigger than Kemp and better than Young/Durdin will do.

Shifting the Magnets - If the worst comes to worst and we can't land an upgrade, I'd try playing Silvagni as a defender. He's slightly taller than Kemp (although still undersized), and has acquitted himself well, in the few games he has played as a defender

Draft - I'd almost rule this out completely, because key position players take a while to develop and we're in position to contend now. I wouldn't say no to a developing KPD with a later pick, but I would prefer to use the earlier picks on kids who have elite disposal.

Conclusion
I think Austin knows that our ball movement has been an issue, hence the Wilson and Moir selections last year. However, I think he needs to take more drastic steps to address it. If he does and it doesn't lead to better performance next year or Voss persists with the one paced midfield, then I think we need to let Voss go. I think the positives of Austins tenure outweigh the negatives, his talent identification seems to be better than Silvagni's (you have to factor in the weaker hand), so I think we have a decent list manager, but this offseason will be telling. All in all, I think things could turn quite easily, kudos to anyone who reads all of this, you must be just as bored as I was when I wrote it.

Brilliant

 

[eaglevision]

I've thought about Petruccelle. We may be worried about his footskills and I don't know if he has a tank. He'd be fantastic for our turnover game. I'd do it ... would Voss?

Has a tank, foot skills are average. I must admit, I haven’t paid much attention to Carroll’s game but some posters on our board have expressed interest in him. Both clubs could do a lot worse than trading one for the other with some late/future pick swaps to balance out any grievances.

Petch could also be a handy acquisition for Carlton if as media reports suggest Jack Martin on the way out. He’s got the versatility to play a midfield and HFF role but as you say it is for your list manager and Voss to decide if that’s a worthwhile investment. One thing there is absolutely no question on is his speed if that’s what you’re looking to add.

Pittonet might be another we’d be interested in for a potential Petch trade.