LIVE: Sydney v Brisbane Lions - 2:30PM AEST Sat
Squiggle tips Lions at 61% chance -- What's your tip? -- Ticketing Buy, Sell -- Teams on Thurs »
Weekly Prize - Join Any Time - Tip Grand Final
The Golden Ticket - MCG and Marvel Medallion Club tickets and Corporate Box tickets at the Gabba, MCG and Marvel.
AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Just use the potentially corrupt ones "brownlow predictor "on thr internet. There's about 5 or 6 of them. I watched 98% of games all season and honestly am kicking myself not to think of doing s count myself. But that's how the cookie crumbles.
Love it mate, if green found a way to win I’d be very happy! Haha! Very excited for your port analysis! I’m on green to poll most games $21The case for Tom Green
Tom Green seems to be a hell of a smokey for this year’s brownlow at the price that he is (~80:1 at time of writing). His line on SB is 21.5 and I feel that’s a lot closer to his minimum than his expected mark.
I initially had him around 31 votes. Thought that must have been too high as there was no market confidence. Started looking for every reason under the sun why he wouldn’t do well, which is why I was speculating about Whitfield, Hogan and Briggs on here a few months back. Went back and watched all their games again, my bias on noticing him must be really really really high because I had him polling even more the 2nd time around.
The micro analysis
Rounds 1-7
- Expected across most predictors to pick up 10-11 votes in rounds 1,2,3 and 7.
- The initial 3 vote odds market had him fave to poll the 3 votes in all 4 of those games.
- Was the Brownlow favourite across these rounds too as GWS were also early flag favourites.
- Round 5 v Saints has potential for a surprise vote or 2. Leading their disposals for a midfielder and their most clearances and con pos. They were 5-6 goals up with 8mins to go and had the game in control all day before a random saints surge. Giant’s players could get the 2 and 3. Outside of Whitfield there really wasn’t much from their side.
Rounds 8-16
- This is where his odds began to drift. He injured his ankle against the Swans in round 8 as the Giant’s form began to fall away.
- Round 9 was a loss but he’s still in the mix. The Giants were in the match throughout, 8 points at 3qt ending in a 20pt loss. He was clearly the Giant’s best and his 34 touches were the most in the match. Huddo’s commentary in the last qtr when he got the ball “Tom Green again, there’s only so much one man can do”. There's no real standout mids in the match. Guys like Langford and Guelfi were most influential. Merret and Durham had nice moments throughout but not big touches.
- Round 11 v the Cats is not clear cut. Isn’t expected to poll on any predictors but can’t be ruled out. Most touches for the Giants. Toby is expected to be in the votes. Max Holmes would be in the mix for the cats if they get votes. Then it's guys like Leek Aleer who was awesome and possibly Riccardi if they want to reward another goalkicker. With the bias for inside mids Green is a chance to sneak into it. His clangers are the only knock but having re-watched this game they weren’t really noticeable because it was mostly in the contest (Most contested possessions in the match with 17). At 3qt I thought he was the best player on the ground.
- Round 14 v the Power. 1-2 on some predictors, missed by others. Green had their most touches and was the best inside mid on the ground. Kelly kicked his goal with 90secs to go when the game was over and was more on the outside as always. Houston could make a case for the 3 here. Him and Farell really got a lot of ball with the 19 behinds the Giants kicked. Briggs was enormous in the first qtr and isn’t out of this either.
- Round 15 v Swans. 27 point loss. He’s had 35 but ~17 were in the first qtr so not much impact after that. 0.5 at best.
- Round 16 v Crows: Loss of 16points. Rankine was best player in the first half but really faded out a lot. Probably still did enough to set up the win and get the votes. Tom Green was easily the dominant midfielder on the ground. Again Whitfield racks up a lot of touches off half back but nowhere near as noticeable as Green. Margin close enough for Tom to get 2 here.
Rounds 17- 24
- Round 17 v Blues. This could really shape the count. Personally I thought Cripps will get the 3 despite the loss. Giants got out to a big lead of 6 goals at 3qt and the Blues comeback never really seemed likely so the umps could elect to give him 1 and give 2 giants players the 3 and 2. Hogan deserves big votes not sure if they’ll reward him. Green very much in the mix. 33 and a goal. Ward, Daniels and Briggs also chances. Really seems like any of a few could get maximum votes.
- Round 18 v Tigers. Seems to be between Toby Tom and Whitfield. Toby should get the 3. Toss up bw the others. I would edge toward Tom as the inside mid for 2.
- Round 19 v Suns. Initially I thought Tom Green would get the 3 for sure. Was easily the best mid in a big win. Hogan the main danger kicked 4 and had big infuence. Whitfield probably 1 despite the big touches. Flanders not out of this either for a minor vote. Predictors uncertain on the 3 here. Green is fave with the bookies here.
- Round 20 v Demons. Again I thought Tom Green would get the 3. Kicked their first goal. Had most clearances and got that final centre clearance late when the game was in danger. Seems like most predictors have him highest rated but not a clear 3. Hogan’s hands were so good in the wet and could challenge. Even Callaghan could spoil the party here was quite good. Viney and Oliver the demon chances. Green is bookie fave here again.
- Round 21 v Hawks. Probably doesn’t deserve votes but kicked the winning goal, had their most con pos easily and most clearances. Competition in Whitfield Toby and Hogan, with Newcombe a huge chance to get 2 or 3 as well. Probably a 0.5 at best.
- Round 22 v Lions. Another Giants win and Green likely the fave to get the 3. Was good throughout this match but wasn’t anything special. Has competition from a few places - Hogan and Cadman kicked 3 each but felt like high influence. Callaghan not far off. Peatling 6 free kicks at the stoppages shouldn’t go missed. Darcy Jones good in the last. Will Ashcroft also a huge chance to get into the minors was good all day. Looks like he’s $3.50 3rd fave for the 3 here with B365.
- Round 23 v Freo. Career high 40 touches. 13 clearances. Was enormous but there’s other good performances. Would back Jesse Hogan to get the 3. Daniels a chance with 29 and 3 and Brayshaw racked up 41 as well. I didn’t really notice that Daniels had 29, to me it felt like a typical 3 goal small forward game and doing some nice things in the middle. I would’ve thought Green has to be the fave for the 2 votes.
- Round 24 v Dogs. 37 and a goal but margin blew out in the final 5-10 mins of the match so Giants lost by 37 points. Probably allocate a 0.5. If the margin didn’t blow out late Green would be a 2 on a lot of predictors.
The Macro analysis
- If Tom Green was 10:1 and predictors had rewarded him more, no one would bat an eye. Was the fave at certain points across the first 7 rounds. Only drifted because the Giants went through a losing patch. When they found form again his price never returned despite strong enough performances.
- Games having the highest touches for their team for a midfielder: 18 for Tom Green, equal with Daicos. The opportunities will be there all season for him to consistently pick up votes. Wines also had 18 in 2021. (This stat may be overrated though - Neale ~11 in 2023, Cripps ~7 in 2022)
- The main dangers for players stealing votes comes in the form of Hogan, the key forward and Whitfield, the half back. Callaghan a chance in a few but that’s a real unknown and only 2 games over 30 touches.
- Last years vote breakdown: Toby got 20 votes putting in an all-australian captain type year. Led the goalkicking in every match he polled in. Tom Green polled 16 votes which was around his expected mark. Was suspended and ineligible since round 5 so never really had any hype. Coniglio and Kelly combined for 18 votes. Both those guys are not huge factors at all this year playing 11 and 13 games respectively and being well down on output. 2 extra wins this year.
- Eye catching factor: Tom Green at his best is a real mix between Cripps and Fyfe. Has the big frame and has the eye catching handball ability where he jumps above the tackle and releases it to the outside. Has probably been down on this with lower clearances this year but has more than made up for it with the highest average disposals in the comp (removing his r8 injury game).
Using a 3,2,1 on b365 odds on the to poll a 3 markets, this is what Green gets:
Tom Green Coll 3 NM 3 WCE 3 Bris 3 Port 2 Carlton 2 Richmond 2 GC 3 Mel 3 Bris 1 Fremantle 1 26 Listed in top 5 R9 v ESS 4th line R10 v DOGS 5th line R11 v CATS 5th line R15 v SWANS 4th line R16 v CROWS 4th line R21 v HAWKS 5th line R24 v DOGS 5h line
I think that 26 is a lot more reasonable than the lower mark he’s been given everywhere. And you can see there’s a further 7 games where he’s in the mix on the 4th and 5th line.
Summary: Who knows what he’s on but has potential to go right into the 30’s if needed.
Was really confident on him with 2 rounds to go but Daicos and Cripps were strong late. Think all the other markets involving him provide some value. Eg- over 21.5, player to poll in most games, elite player handicap, 25+, 30+ etc.
I agree with this. I have him Tom Green top 3 by my count. Do people really think Hogan and Whitfield will take all the votes away from him.The case for Tom Green
Tom Green seems to be a hell of a smokey for this year’s brownlow at the price that he is (~80:1 at time of writing). His line on SB is 21.5 and I feel that’s a lot closer to his minimum than his expected mark.
I initially had him around 31 votes. Thought that must have been too high as there was no market confidence. Started looking for every reason under the sun why he wouldn’t do well, which is why I was speculating about Whitfield, Hogan and Briggs on here a few months back. Went back and watched all their games again, my bias on noticing him must be really really really high because I had him polling even more the 2nd time around.
The micro analysis
Rounds 1-7
- Expected across most predictors to pick up 10-11 votes in rounds 1,2,3 and 7.
- The initial 3 vote odds market had him fave to poll the 3 votes in all 4 of those games.
- Was the Brownlow favourite across these rounds too as GWS were also early flag favourites.
- Round 5 v Saints has potential for a surprise vote or 2. Leading their disposals for a midfielder and their most clearances and con pos. They were 5-6 goals up with 8mins to go and had the game in control all day before a random saints surge. Giant’s players could get the 2 and 3. Outside of Whitfield there really wasn’t much from their side.
Rounds 8-16
- This is where his odds began to drift. He injured his ankle against the Swans in round 8 as the Giant’s form began to fall away.
- Round 9 was a loss but he’s still in the mix. The Giants were in the match throughout, 8 points at 3qt ending in a 20pt loss. He was clearly the Giant’s best and his 34 touches were the most in the match. Huddo’s commentary in the last qtr when he got the ball “Tom Green again, there’s only so much one man can do”. There's no real standout mids in the match. Guys like Langford and Guelfi were most influential. Merret and Durham had nice moments throughout but not big touches.
- Round 11 v the Cats is not clear cut. Isn’t expected to poll on any predictors but can’t be ruled out. Most touches for the Giants. Toby is expected to be in the votes. Max Holmes would be in the mix for the cats if they get votes. Then it's guys like Leek Aleer who was awesome and possibly Riccardi if they want to reward another goalkicker. With the bias for inside mids Green is a chance to sneak into it. His clangers are the only knock but having re-watched this game they weren’t really noticeable because it was mostly in the contest (Most contested possessions in the match with 17). At 3qt I thought he was the best player on the ground.
- Round 14 v the Power. 1-2 on some predictors, missed by others. Green had their most touches and was the best inside mid on the ground. Kelly kicked his goal with 90secs to go when the game was over and was more on the outside as always. Houston could make a case for the 3 here. Him and Farell really got a lot of ball with the 19 behinds the Giants kicked. Briggs was enormous in the first qtr and isn’t out of this either.
- Round 15 v Swans. 27 point loss. He’s had 35 but ~17 were in the first qtr so not much impact after that. 0.5 at best.
- Round 16 v Crows: Loss of 16points. Rankine was best player in the first half but really faded out a lot. Probably still did enough to set up the win and get the votes. Tom Green was easily the dominant midfielder on the ground. Again Whitfield racks up a lot of touches off half back but nowhere near as noticeable as Green. Margin close enough for Tom to get 2 here.
Rounds 17- 24
- Round 17 v Blues. This could really shape the count. Personally I thought Cripps will get the 3 despite the loss. Giants got out to a big lead of 6 goals at 3qt and the Blues comeback never really seemed likely so the umps could elect to give him 1 and give 2 giants players the 3 and 2. Hogan deserves big votes not sure if they’ll reward him. Green very much in the mix. 33 and a goal. Ward, Daniels and Briggs also chances. Really seems like any of a few could get maximum votes.
- Round 18 v Tigers. Seems to be between Toby Tom and Whitfield. Toby should get the 3. Toss up bw the others. I would edge toward Tom as the inside mid for 2.
- Round 19 v Suns. Initially I thought Tom Green would get the 3 for sure. Was easily the best mid in a big win. Hogan the main danger kicked 4 and had big infuence. Whitfield probably 1 despite the big touches. Flanders not out of this either for a minor vote. Predictors uncertain on the 3 here. Green is fave with the bookies here.
- Round 20 v Demons. Again I thought Tom Green would get the 3. Kicked their first goal. Had most clearances and got that final centre clearance late when the game was in danger. Seems like most predictors have him highest rated but not a clear 3. Hogan’s hands were so good in the wet and could challenge. Even Callaghan could spoil the party here was quite good. Viney and Oliver the demon chances. Green is bookie fave here again.
- Round 21 v Hawks. Probably doesn’t deserve votes but kicked the winning goal, had their most con pos easily and most clearances. Competition in Whitfield Toby and Hogan, with Newcombe a huge chance to get 2 or 3 as well. Probably a 0.5 at best.
- Round 22 v Lions. Another Giants win and Green likely the fave to get the 3. Was good throughout this match but wasn’t anything special. Has competition from a few places - Hogan and Cadman kicked 3 each but felt like high influence. Callaghan not far off. Peatling 6 free kicks at the stoppages shouldn’t go missed. Darcy Jones good in the last. Will Ashcroft also a huge chance to get into the minors was good all day. Looks like he’s $3.50 3rd fave for the 3 here with B365.
- Round 23 v Freo. Career high 40 touches. 13 clearances. Was enormous but there’s other good performances. Would back Jesse Hogan to get the 3. Daniels a chance with 29 and 3 and Brayshaw racked up 41 as well. I didn’t really notice that Daniels had 29, to me it felt like a typical 3 goal small forward game and doing some nice things in the middle. I would’ve thought Green has to be the fave for the 2 votes.
- Round 24 v Dogs. 37 and a goal but margin blew out in the final 5-10 mins of the match so Giants lost by 37 points. Probably allocate a 0.5. If the margin didn’t blow out late Green would be a 2 on a lot of predictors.
The Macro analysis
- If Tom Green was 10:1 and predictors had rewarded him more, no one would bat an eye. Was the fave at certain points across the first 7 rounds. Only drifted because the Giants went through a losing patch. When they found form again his price never returned despite strong enough performances.
- Games having the highest touches for their team for a midfielder: 18 for Tom Green, equal with Daicos. The opportunities will be there all season for him to consistently pick up votes. Wines also had 18 in 2021. (This stat may be overrated though - Neale ~11 in 2023, Cripps ~7 in 2022)
- The main dangers for players stealing votes comes in the form of Hogan, the key forward and Whitfield, the half back. Callaghan a chance in a few but that’s a real unknown and only 2 games over 30 touches.
- Last years vote breakdown: Toby got 20 votes putting in an all-australian captain type year. Led the goalkicking in every match he polled in. Tom Green polled 16 votes which was around his expected mark. Was suspended and ineligible since round 5 so never really had any hype. Coniglio and Kelly combined for 18 votes. Both those guys are not huge factors at all this year playing 11 and 13 games respectively and being well down on output. 2 extra wins this year.
- Eye catching factor: Tom Green at his best is a real mix between Cripps and Fyfe. Has the big frame and has the eye catching handball ability where he jumps above the tackle and releases it to the outside. Has probably been down on this with lower clearances this year but has more than made up for it with the highest average disposals in the comp (removing his r8 injury game).
Using a 3,2,1 on b365 odds on the to poll a 3 markets, this is what Green gets:
Tom Green Coll 3 NM 3 WCE 3 Bris 3 Port 2 Carlton 2 Richmond 2 GC 3 Mel 3 Bris 1 Fremantle 1 26 Listed in top 5 R9 v ESS 4th line R10 v DOGS 5th line R11 v CATS 5th line R15 v SWANS 4th line R16 v CROWS 4th line R21 v HAWKS 5th line R24 v DOGS 5h line
I think that 26 is a lot more reasonable than the lower mark he’s been given everywhere. And you can see there’s a further 7 games where he’s in the mix on the 4th and 5th line.
Summary: Who knows what he’s on but has potential to go right into the 30’s if needed.
Was really confident on him with 2 rounds to go but Daicos and Cripps were strong late. Think all the other markets involving him provide some value. Eg- over 21.5, player to poll in most games, elite player handicap, 25+, 30+ etc.
Maybe NYRB would have the full thing.
| Cripps | |
| R0 bris | |
| r1 tigers | 3 |
| r3 NM | 2 |
| r4 freo | |
| r5 crows | |
| r6 gws | 3 |
| r7 geelong | 2 |
| r8 pies | |
| r9 dees | 2 |
| r11 GC | 3 |
| r12 Port | 3 |
| r13 Essendon | |
| r15 Geelong | 3 |
| r16 Tigers | 3 |
| r17 GWS | 1 |
| r18 Dogs | 1 |
| r19 NM | 1 |
| r21 pies | 2 |
| r23 WCE | 3 |
| r24 Saints | 1 |
| 33 |
| Daicos | |
| r24 Dees | 3 |
| r23 Lions | 3 |
| r22 Swans | |
| r21 Blues | 3 |
| r20 Tigers | 3 |
| r17 Ess | |
| r16 GC | 1 |
| r14 NM | 2 |
| r13 Dees | |
| r12 Dogs | 1 |
| r11 Freo | 3 |
| r10 Crows | 3 |
| r9 WCE | 3 |
| r8 Blues | 3 |
| r7 Ess | 1 |
| r6 Port | 3 |
| r3 Lions | 2 |
| 34 |
$1.22 for Nic Martin to poll 3 votes he is too short for me as well.
Go to page 13 onward of this forum. Most are definitely on Cripps, worthy fave.
Daicos not getting much public support, interesting that his odds have tightened on most books today
Daicos is always overbet. Good chance of winning it but at no point would you ever get a value price.
How are you coming to that conclusion?
You are making up shit here.
I’m in the same boat as you. Love your work. I’ve got him finishing on 32.The case for Tom Green
Tom Green seems to be a hell of a smokey for this year’s brownlow at the price that he is (~80:1 at time of writing). His line on SB is 21.5 and I feel that’s a lot closer to his minimum than his expected mark.
I initially had him around 31 votes. Thought that must have been too high as there was no market confidence. Started looking for every reason under the sun why he wouldn’t do well, which is why I was speculating about Whitfield, Hogan and Briggs on here a few months back. Went back and watched all their games again, my bias on noticing him must be really really really high because I had him polling even more the 2nd time around.
The micro analysis
Rounds 1-7
- Expected across most predictors to pick up 10-11 votes in rounds 1,2,3 and 7.
- The initial 3 vote odds market had him fave to poll the 3 votes in all 4 of those games.
- Was the Brownlow favourite across these rounds too as GWS were also early flag favourites.
- Round 5 v Saints has potential for a surprise vote or 2. Leading their disposals for a midfielder and their most clearances and con pos. They were 5-6 goals up with 8mins to go and had the game in control all day before a random saints surge. Giant’s players could get the 2 and 3. Outside of Whitfield there really wasn’t much from their side.
Rounds 8-16
- This is where his odds began to drift. He injured his ankle against the Swans in round 8 as the Giant’s form began to fall away.
- Round 9 was a loss but he’s still in the mix. The Giants were in the match throughout, 8 points at 3qt ending in a 20pt loss. He was clearly the Giant’s best and his 34 touches were the most in the match. Huddo’s commentary in the last qtr when he got the ball “Tom Green again, there’s only so much one man can do”. There's no real standout mids in the match. Guys like Langford and Guelfi were most influential. Merret and Durham had nice moments throughout but not big touches.
- Round 11 v the Cats is not clear cut. Isn’t expected to poll on any predictors but can’t be ruled out. Most touches for the Giants. Toby is expected to be in the votes. Max Holmes would be in the mix for the cats if they get votes. Then it's guys like Leek Aleer who was awesome and possibly Riccardi if they want to reward another goalkicker. With the bias for inside mids Green is a chance to sneak into it. His clangers are the only knock but having re-watched this game they weren’t really noticeable because it was mostly in the contest (Most contested possessions in the match with 17). At 3qt I thought he was the best player on the ground.
- Round 14 v the Power. 1-2 on some predictors, missed by others. Green had their most touches and was the best inside mid on the ground. Kelly kicked his goal with 90secs to go when the game was over and was more on the outside as always. Houston could make a case for the 3 here. Him and Farell really got a lot of ball with the 19 behinds the Giants kicked. Briggs was enormous in the first qtr and isn’t out of this either.
- Round 15 v Swans. 27 point loss. He’s had 35 but ~17 were in the first qtr so not much impact after that. 0.5 at best.
- Round 16 v Crows: Loss of 16points. Rankine was best player in the first half but really faded out a lot. Probably still did enough to set up the win and get the votes. Tom Green was easily the dominant midfielder on the ground. Again Whitfield racks up a lot of touches off half back but nowhere near as noticeable as Green. Margin close enough for Tom to get 2 here.
Rounds 17- 24
- Round 17 v Blues. This could really shape the count. Personally I thought Cripps will get the 3 despite the loss. Giants got out to a big lead of 6 goals at 3qt and the Blues comeback never really seemed likely so the umps could elect to give him 1 and give 2 giants players the 3 and 2. Hogan deserves big votes not sure if they’ll reward him. Green very much in the mix. 33 and a goal. Ward, Daniels and Briggs also chances. Really seems like any of a few could get maximum votes.
- Round 18 v Tigers. Seems to be between Toby Tom and Whitfield. Toby should get the 3. Toss up bw the others. I would edge toward Tom as the inside mid for 2.
- Round 19 v Suns. Initially I thought Tom Green would get the 3 for sure. Was easily the best mid in a big win. Hogan the main danger kicked 4 and had big infuence. Whitfield probably 1 despite the big touches. Flanders not out of this either for a minor vote. Predictors uncertain on the 3 here. Green is fave with the bookies here.
- Round 20 v Demons. Again I thought Tom Green would get the 3. Kicked their first goal. Had most clearances and got that final centre clearance late when the game was in danger. Seems like most predictors have him highest rated but not a clear 3. Hogan’s hands were so good in the wet and could challenge. Even Callaghan could spoil the party here was quite good. Viney and Oliver the demon chances. Green is bookie fave here again.
- Round 21 v Hawks. Probably doesn’t deserve votes but kicked the winning goal, had their most con pos easily and most clearances. Competition in Whitfield Toby and Hogan, with Newcombe a huge chance to get 2 or 3 as well. Probably a 0.5 at best.
- Round 22 v Lions. Another Giants win and Green likely the fave to get the 3. Was good throughout this match but wasn’t anything special. Has competition from a few places - Hogan and Cadman kicked 3 each but felt like high influence. Callaghan not far off. Peatling 6 free kicks at the stoppages shouldn’t go missed. Darcy Jones good in the last. Will Ashcroft also a huge chance to get into the minors was good all day. Looks like he’s $3.50 3rd fave for the 3 here with B365.
- Round 23 v Freo. Career high 40 touches. 13 clearances. Was enormous but there’s other good performances. Would back Jesse Hogan to get the 3. Daniels a chance with 29 and 3 and Brayshaw racked up 41 as well. I didn’t really notice that Daniels had 29, to me it felt like a typical 3 goal small forward game and doing some nice things in the middle. I would’ve thought Green has to be the fave for the 2 votes.
- Round 24 v Dogs. 37 and a goal but margin blew out in the final 5-10 mins of the match so Giants lost by 37 points. Probably allocate a 0.5. If the margin didn’t blow out late Green would be a 2 on a lot of predictors.
The Macro analysis
- If Tom Green was 10:1 and predictors had rewarded him more, no one would bat an eye. Was the fave at certain points across the first 7 rounds. Only drifted because the Giants went through a losing patch. When they found form again his price never returned despite strong enough performances.
- Games having the highest touches for their team for a midfielder: 18 for Tom Green, equal with Daicos. The opportunities will be there all season for him to consistently pick up votes. Wines also had 18 in 2021. (This stat may be overrated though - Neale ~11 in 2023, Cripps ~7 in 2022)
- The main dangers for players stealing votes comes in the form of Hogan, the key forward and Whitfield, the half back. Callaghan a chance in a few but that’s a real unknown and only 2 games over 30 touches.
- Last years vote breakdown: Toby got 20 votes putting in an all-australian captain type year. Led the goalkicking in every match he polled in. Tom Green polled 16 votes which was around his expected mark. Was suspended and ineligible since round 5 so never really had any hype. Coniglio and Kelly combined for 18 votes. Both those guys are not huge factors at all this year playing 11 and 13 games respectively and being well down on output. 2 extra wins this year.
- Eye catching factor: Tom Green at his best is a real mix between Cripps and Fyfe. Has the big frame and has the eye catching handball ability where he jumps above the tackle and releases it to the outside. Has probably been down on this with lower clearances this year but has more than made up for it with the highest average disposals in the comp (removing his r8 injury game).
Using a 3,2,1 on b365 odds on the to poll a 3 markets, this is what Green gets:
Tom Green Coll 3 NM 3 WCE 3 Bris 3 Port 2 Carlton 2 Richmond 2 GC 3 Mel 3 Bris 1 Fremantle 1 26 Listed in top 5 R9 v ESS 4th line R10 v DOGS 5th line R11 v CATS 5th line R15 v SWANS 4th line R16 v CROWS 4th line R21 v HAWKS 5th line R24 v DOGS 5h line
I think that 26 is a lot more reasonable than the lower mark he’s been given everywhere. And you can see there’s a further 7 games where he’s in the mix on the 4th and 5th line.
Summary: Who knows what he’s on but has potential to go right into the 30’s if needed.
Was really confident on him with 2 rounds to go but Daicos and Cripps were strong late. Think all the other markets involving him provide some value. Eg- over 21.5, player to poll in most games, elite player handicap, 25+, 30+ etc.
Sportsbet doesn’t have 3-2-1 vote markets this year ? Unless it comes out today
Great analysis. Also have JHF around the 25 mark and ‘over polling’.My Port analysis largely centres around Jason Horne-Francis.
I never thought I’d be writing this because after last year I really expected JHF to be well found and under the odds all season. Perhaps because of his injury after round 1 and then Rozee Butters early season dominance he got lost a bit. Really reminds me of Dangerfield circa 2013.
Rounds 1-8
Some have him polling in round 1, is a chance to pick up the 1.
Round 4 seems the most likely choice for the 2 votes.
Round 6 in the final qtr is where he really started to find form this season. Won’t poll there but really was the only Port player putting up a fight in that match.
Round 7 is a tough one for allocating votes. He’s had their most clearances with no real standout outside of Jase Burgoyne. Don’t think he polls but wouldn’t surprise me if he gets 1.
Round 8 is deceptive on the stats.
Despite the crows 30pts win, with 8mins to go the margin was 14 points, port had 5 more scoring shots. JHF had kicked their last 2 goals, they only had 5 total, and he began to also get to work in the clearances. Commentators were talking about him as a potential showdown medalist. Can't be ruled out for 1 or 2 votes here, was the main man. Probably just getting caught up in commentary hype but he was quite eye-catching. Interesting that butters is actually the 2nd fave here to get the 3.
Rounds 9-12
This next patch I think will decide the port votes and handicap
Round 9 there were 3 big performances in JHF Butters and Wines. Willie Rioli was also quite good but gave away a 100m penalty which kick started the cats comeback so not sure what to make of that. For the first 3 quarters I thought Hornet was definitely best on and he got given a harder tag because of it and faded out of the game a bit. If they take the view that Port won the game in the first half then he should be getting the 3. If they want the proper 4qtr performance then Butters or Wines become the guy.
Round 10 is not that clear cut. Hawks were in control all day but lost. Butters was held all day but put in an epic final quarter. Hornet was their best throughout. Hardwick would also be quite stiff to not get the 3 votes after 5 goals and then having an impact down back in the 2nd half. Will Day and Newcombe would’ve been the hawks mids in the votes if they won comfortably.
Round 11 I’m very surprised that so many predictors only have him on 1 or 0 votes. I thought he put on an absolute masterclass. Was getting the boos every time he touched it and it really spurred him on. Go back and look at some of those clearances
Round 12 If Cripps didn’t have that 5min patch in the last qtr then I thought JHF would be fave for the 2 votes after Walsh. Still think he gets 1, was Port’s best all night with Wines and they were in the game for most of the night.
Rounds 14-20
Round 16 v Saints should be a clear best on was very good.
Round 17
Rozee was quite good, had 18 in the first qtr. Butters was also really good particularly in the first half which is where Port won the game. He got subbed maybe halfway through the last qtr not sure if umps will notice that or care. JHF is the real interesting one. After half time by itself he would've been best on but the game was over. Think he had about 15 and 3 goals in the 2nd half. Could easily sneak 1 or 2 votes. Georgiades kicks 5 in the end and could get that spot. If umps recognise it was completely over at half time then wines should get 1 as he was really good then.
Round 20
Seemed like Wines was the best across the night, Cripps was tagged out of it and had no influence despite the touches and clearances. If Carlton won it would've been Curnow and Walsh. JHF was best in the 2nd half and could be getting 1 vote, kicked the winner and got involved late. Can't rule out Aliir as well for minor votes, ended really well on Curnow if umps notice that kinda thing…
Rounds 21-24
An unbelievable final month
Round 21 Hornet set this game up in the first half and I initially thought would be a unanimous 3. Lots of good performances in the end. Probably comes down to whether they reward the guy who set up the win vs the guys that cashed in when the game was dead. If they’re consistent in the way they view it then either round 17 or this game JHF should be amongst it.
Round 22 Clear best on.
Round 23. Butters huge. Really hard to see who else gets the 2 outside of JHF.
Round 24. Felt like JHF was best on throughout, certainly the vibe from the commentators. Having watched it again, maybe wise to just allocate him ~1-2 as Wines was pretty good too, and Hornet’s 2nd goal was from a handball in the goalsquare.
Summary:
JHF was surprisingly underhyped and underpolled on predictors all year. Really got noticed in the final month. I think all the predictors I’ve seen him have him at his lower level of ~20 votes. I think he pushes 25 and gives Butter’s a real scare for Port’s votes. Was initially good value in a few markets but it’s been largely sucked out now. Ie - 20+, 25+, top 10.
Only real risk is whether umps are cautious having gotten a lot of backlash last year for giving him some random votes. Hoping this is countered by the fact he’s actually had a huge season this time.
