2024 AFLW trade and draft

[Callipygian]

I'm a firm believer in it never being too early to start talking about trade and draft. Now that we have had a run of games (in the VFLW) to see how our players are performing, there is already some additional data to inform our opinions. Plus there's a lot of State level footy going on around Australia (that I confess I am not following).

We've now had confirmation that the trade and draft period will be in December following the AFLW GF and before Christmas: https://www.afl.com.au/aflw/news/1110361/aflw-moves-closer-to-full-national-draft-in-2024. What's more, it's on the cards that the draft will be a fully national one where players can't nominate only for their home state. Personally I am in favour of this and I think it will benefit us more than it hurts us. I'm unclear whether we'll get the rights to match bids on Academy players but as a minimum we'll have the inside running in terms of knowledge about the players.

My opinion in the last post-season period was that we did not turn over enough of our list. I think there will be some short-term upside to this but I am keen to see us continue to emphasise long-term gain (which, happily, we mostly have been doing). The one ruthless decision we did make was to trade out Aliesha Newman and bring in Holly Cooper and Sarah Grunden to play in forward 50. I applaud that move even though I felt very warmly towards Newman who is a crafty and experienced forward and good shot for goal.

From what I have gleaned, currently our list management team is comprised of: head coach Scott Gowans, general manager Kate Mahony, line coach Tanya Hetherington (who was working in identifying talent nationally before she came to the Swans according to this article: https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/1332561/hetherington-im-confident-i-can-get-the-best-out-of-them) and Phoebe Carter who is our AFLW oppo analyst: https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/1332371/swans-bolster-aflw-coachin-personnel. This team will be pouring their efforts into scoping out the State leagues that are currently under way, as well as Academy games. And they will be, even now, forming preliminary opinions about what our list needs are and how to address them. Who knows, they may even be sounding out trade targets and player agents.

I don't think we can afford to trade out anyone who has much currency (unless either the player tells us they want to leave or it's in order to get someone even better), so my best idea about how to get more quality via the draft is (perhaps ironically) to look to trade back a bit in the draft. Maybe, come December, we can look to split our second rounder so that we can have an extra draftee e.g. (assuming we finished 6th again) turn pick 31 into picks 39 & 40 (or similar). While we're still building our list my thought is to get more draftees in the door on the assumption that some of them will work out and we're not yet looking to 'top up' with very specific quality acquisitions and nor do we have the luxury of giving up our draft hand to trade for a better first rounder.

I'd also be happy to look for opportunities to pick up more experienced players from top sides that are being denied opportunity because of the depth and strength of their team.

It's hard to get specific about individuals when the season proper hasn't even started but it's not too soon to make some more general observations.

* By bringing in Davies and Hillier we strengthened our tall players but still this remains, in my opinion, a weakness in our list. I would like to see us acquire at least one more quality 178+ cm player.

* Conversely, by bringing in Cooper and Grunden (who have both made promising starts), I think we have improved the scoring power on our list and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop.

* While you always need more good mids, currently I feel like our midfield is a relative strength. Gardiner is a star. So is Molloy (albeit she is equally a forward as a mid). Ham looks like she's on the cusp of becoming a star. Hurley is an elite runner and is developing her contested game. Kennedy is an A grader. McEvoy is also an A grader and could be used more in the midfield in 2024. Cynthia Hamilton has done very well playing mostly forward but the time may come where we decide her talents can be used more in the midfield as other players (like Beruldsen, Grunden, Cooper) take up the slack in the forward 50. And then we have a bunch of serviceable players. Another mid behind them should be on the menu but is not urgent.

* In the ruck Davies looks like she is a decent second ruck-forward but we could use another player developing and ready to step up if Morphett is injured or suspended.

No doubt by the time the AFLW season is complete we'll have a much clearer view about who's travelling well and who isn't.

Currently we have a raft of players who are honest toilers but probably not up to the AFLW standard of the future. I'm thinking of players like: Sheppard, Mitchell, Woodward, Steane, Whelan, Vale, Szigeti and Lexi Hamilton. These players are valuable now but I hope at least some of them can be upgraded bit by bit over time. Then we have players who we just don't know yet what their long term future holds e.g. Sergeant-Wilson, O'Sullivan, McCarthy. They've shown promise but aren't yet established. And then there are players whose future is clouded due to injury like Collier.

The whole AFLW competition is still in its infancy and is growing and the plans the AFL makes about how to grow the AFLW may also impact our list management decisions. A couple of factors that I think will have a big impact on list management decisions are:

* how many games there will be per season (I don't think we yet know what this will be after 2024); and

* list sizes - I think an increasing number of games per season is likely to result in gradual increases in list sizes. An increase in list sizes is very significant for list management because it dilutes the talent and impacts on the amount of depth you want to have. The value of those honest toiler type players who can be relied on to come in and play a role even if they're no world beaters would increase if list sizes went up.

Those are my thoughts at this early stage of the season. I'm interested to know others opinions and see how this all unfolds over the next 8 months. Happily, I doubt this thread is going to be inundated with posts but I'd love to see a steady trickle.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I'm a firm believer in it never being too early to start talking about trade and draft. Now that we have had a run of games (in the VFLW) to see how our players are performing, there is already some additional data to inform our opinions. Plus there's a lot of State level footy going on around Australia (that I confess I am not following).

We've now had confirmation that the trade and draft period will be in December following the AFLW GF and before Christmas: https://www.afl.com.au/aflw/news/1110361/aflw-moves-closer-to-full-national-draft-in-2024. What's more, it's on the cards that the draft will be a fully national one where players can't nominate only for their home state. Personally I am in favour of this and I think it will benefit us more than it hurts us. I'm unclear whether we'll get the rights to match bids on Academy players but as a minimum we'll have the inside running in terms of knowledge about the players.

My opinion in the last post-season period was that we did not turn over enough of our list. I think there will be some short-term upside to this but I am keen to see us continue to emphasise long-term gain (which, happily, we mostly have been doing). The one ruthless decision we did make was to trade out Aliesha Newman and bring in Holly Cooper and Sarah Grunden to play in forward 50. I applaud that move even though I felt very warmly towards Newman who is a crafty and experienced forward and good shot for goal.

From what I have gleaned, currently our list management team is comprised of: head coach Scott Gowans, general manager Kate Mahony, line coach Tanya Hetherington (who was working in identifying talent nationally before she came to the Swans according to this article: https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/1332561/hetherington-im-confident-i-can-get-the-best-out-of-them) and Phoebe Carter who is our AFLW oppo analyst: https://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/1332371/swans-bolster-aflw-coachin-personnel. This team will be pouring their efforts into scoping out the State leagues that are currently under way, as well as Academy games. And they will be, even now, forming preliminary opinions about what our list needs are and how to address them. Who knows, they may even be sounding out trade targets and player agents.

I don't think we can afford to trade out anyone who has much currency (unless either the player tells us they want to leave or it's in order to get someone even better), so my best idea about how to get more quality via the draft is (perhaps ironically) to look to trade back a bit in the draft. Maybe, come December, we can look to split our second rounder so that we can have an extra draftee e.g. (assuming we finished 6th again) turn pick 31 into picks 39 & 40 (or similar). While we're still building our list my thought is to get more draftees in the door on the assumption that some of them will work out and we're not yet looking to 'top up' with very specific quality acquisitions and nor do we have the luxury of giving up our draft hand to trade for a better first rounder.

I'd also be happy to look for opportunities to pick up more experienced players from top sides that are being denied opportunity because of the depth and strength of their team.

It's hard to get specific about individuals when the season proper hasn't even started but it's not too soon to make some more general observations.

* By bringing in Davies and Hillier we strengthened our tall players but still this remains, in my opinion, a weakness in our list. I would like to see us acquire at least one more quality 178+ cm player.

* Conversely, by bringing in Cooper and Grunden (who have both made promising starts), I think we have improved the scoring power on our list and I'm looking forward to seeing them develop.

* While you always need more good mids, currently I feel like our midfield is a relative strength. Gardiner is a star. So is Molloy (albeit she is equally a forward as a mid). Ham looks like she's on the cusp of becoming a star. Hurley is an elite runner and is developing her contested game. Kennedy is an A grader. McEvoy is also an A grader and could be used more in the midfield in 2024. Cynthia Hamilton has done very well playing mostly forward but the time may come where we decide her talents can be used more in the midfield as other players (like Beruldsen, Grunden, Cooper) take up the slack in the forward 50. And then we have a bunch of serviceable players. Another mid behind them should be on the menu but is not urgent.

* In the ruck Davies looks like she is a decent second ruck-forward but we could use another player developing and ready to step up if Morphett is injured or suspended.

No doubt by the time the AFLW season is complete we'll have a much clearer view about who's travelling well and who isn't.

Currently we have a raft of players who are honest toilers but probably not up to the AFLW standard of the future. I'm thinking of players like: Sheppard, Mitchell, Woodward, Steane, Whelan, Vale, Szigeti and Lexi Hamilton. These players are valuable now but I hope at least some of them can be upgraded bit by bit over time. Then we have players who we just don't know yet what their long term future holds e.g. Sergeant-Wilson, O'Sullivan, McCarthy. They've shown promise but aren't yet established. And then there are players whose future is clouded due to injury like Collier.

The whole AFLW competition is still in its infancy and is growing and the plans the AFL makes about how to grow the AFLW may also impact our list management decisions. A couple of factors that I think will have a big impact on list management decisions are:

* how many games there will be per season (I don't think we yet know what this will be after 2024); and

* list sizes - I think an increasing number of games per season is likely to result in gradual increases in list sizes. An increase in list sizes is very significant for list management because it dilutes the talent and impacts on the amount of depth you want to have. The value of those honest toiler type players who can be relied on to come in and play a role even if they're no world beaters would increase if list sizes went up.

Those are my thoughts at this early stage of the season. I'm interested to know others opinions and see how this all unfolds over the next 8 months. Happily, I doubt this thread is going to be inundated with posts but I'd love to see a steady trickle.

Nice start Calli.
A couple of additional points.
1) The skill level in the competition has improved exponentially and game style is changing, like the men's, towards runners. Gowans appears to be all over this and it will influence who we draft and trade.
2) As a member of the Swans family "character" also seems an important factor in who we draft and trade.
3) I hope forcing the draft open doesn't discourage some players from entering as the player payments are still not very high.
4) I don't know the "lesser lights" of the playing group well enough to make any kind of judgement but experience is useful, especially in forming a new group.
I believe our coaches and management have done an outstanding job so far overcoming obstacles and building a cohesive playing group.

 

[Callipygian]

I feel it would be a tiny percentage of anyone wanting to be drafted and have a football career that would decide not to nominate for the draft because they could be drafted interstate. If they feel so strongly, they could always chance their luck and then renege/retire if they were drafted somewhere they really really didn't want to go. And if they feel strongly but slightly less strongly, they give it their best shot and look for a chance to be traded back 'home'.

 

[Arwib]

Last year the majority of the pool nominated nationally, but for the top 20ish it was only about half. Meant that the players who knew for certain they'll get drafted are more likely to nominate locally, which makes intuitive sense. As long as the option exists we can expect it to continue and some players from the other 4 states to be out of reach to us.

Last draft, if you went by pre-draft rankings, our first pick of Grunden was one of the biggest "reaches" (players taken higher than their expert ranking) because the remaining options were all tied locally. Several of the picks after us were much higher rated players in Vic, SA, WA or Qld.

With the generally weaker local pool, we are going to keep being one of the teams most likely to have a lack of players available commensurate with the position of our picks for as long as there's local nominations. And we're quite unlikely to get the sort of lucky advantage the SA teams both got last year, with being able to use much later picks for top players because gun SA players nominated locally.

So yes, national pool helps us, though I still don't think the pay levels and contract security are there to support requiring them all to be willing to move interstate just yet.