Mega Thread 2024-2025 MLB Hot Stove

[Dixie Flatline]

The Chicago Cubs have been talking to the Miami Marlins concerning a trade for LHP Jesus Luzardo, according to reports.

Luzardo was limited by elbow and back issues in 2024 to just 12 starts and 66 2/3 innings. Injuries have plagued Luzardo's career to date, as he has been restricted to just 512 innings across six seasons with the Athletics and Marlins. He has a career 4.29 ERA.

Luzardo is under team control via arbitration for another two seasons, and he is entering his age-27 season. If he remains healthy and gets back to his best, then he would be a strong bargain for whichever team acquires him, but at this stage of his career, it is difficult to assess whether Luzardo would ever remain healthy again.
According to reports, the Marlins are looking for a "young controllable bat" in exchange for Luzardo, and speculation has the Cubs being asked to give up a top prospect like James Triantos or Owen Caissie for Luzardo.

Bob Nightengale (@bnightengale.bsky.social)

The Cubs now bring in veteran catcher Carson Kelly on a 2-year, $11.5 million contract. They remain busy on the trade front trying to move Cody Bellinger, showing interest in Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo, while also seeking a 3B.

bsky.app

https://www.audacy.com/stations/670thescore/shows/mully-haugh-show-cc0a5/episodes/22cb3b2d0f4f?action=AUTOPLAY_FULL&actionContentId=101-455

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Baltimore Orioles have signed RHP Tomoyuki Sugano to a one year, $13 million contract. The Orioles had a spare spot on their 40-man roster, so no corresponding move was required. Sugano goes from the NPB to the MLB for the first time in what will be his age-35 season. He spent 12 years with the Yomiuri Giants, pitching in excess of 1,800 innings of 2.43 ERA ball. The Giants posted Sugano to the MLB in the 2020-2021 offseason but he was not able to come to terms with any MLB team, despite putting up a 1.97 ERA. Sugano returned to the Giants on a four-year contract that paid him $40 million, and which contained opt-outs after each season should he choose to leave for the majors.

Sugano has surprassed nine years of service time in the NPB so the Giants do not receive a fee from the Orioles, nor will the Orioles be required to give up anything other than salary to sign Sugano. He joins the Orioles off the back of arguably his best season in the NPB, where he posted a 1.67 ERA in 156 2/3 innings across 24 starts. It was the second lowest ERA of his career and earned him the MVP award in the NPB's Central League for the third time.

However, the underlying metrics suggest that Sugano is likely to be past his best by the time he gets to Baltimore. According to Baseball America's scouting report, Sugano's average fastball velocity has dropped from 94-96 mph earlier in his career to 92-93 mph last season. However, Sugano is supremely gifted at hitting his spots, walking just 16 batters all season for a 2.6% walk rate that is lower than what any MLB starter could manage (minimum 100 innings).

Baseball America credits Sugano with five pitches, including a fastball, an above average slider and splitter.

The Orioles will likely slot Sugano in behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez in the rotation. Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers, Albert Suarez, Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are the options for the remaining two spots, assuming that the Orioles do not sign any other starting pitcher this off-season (and they remain interested in re-signing RHP Corbin Burnes).

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Houston Astros have signed catcher Joe Hudson to a minor league deal according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Sugar Land but will likely receive an invitation to big league Spring Training.

Hudson briefly played in the majors in 2024. He started with the Cubs on a minor league deal and was then traded to the Mets in April. He was selected to their major league roster in June, but only played in one big league game and did not get a plate appearance. He replaced catcher Francisco Alvarez in the bottom of the ninth in an 11-1 game against the Cubs. The Mets then outrighted him off the roster and he elected minor league free agency at the end of the season.

Hudson has appeared in 19 MLB games across four seasons and has a career .167/.219/.200 batting line in 33 plate appearances.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are reportedly in agreement on a trade that will send OF/1B Cody Bellinger to the Bronx in exchange for RHP Cody Peteet. The Cubs are also reportedly contributing $5 million cash ($2.5 million for 2025 and $2.5 million for 2026, regardless of whether Bellinger exercises his opt-out or not). Reportedly the Yankees plan to use Bellinger in centre field, which would likely see Judge move back to right field to replace the now-departed Soto.

The trade of Bellinger will open up centre field to be the responsibility of Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2025 on a daily basis, while Michael Busch became the every-day first baseman for the Cubs. The Cubs also needed to fit Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki on the outfield corners, then traded for Kyle Tucker (who played right field with the Astros).

Bellinger was signed by the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5 million contract for 2023 after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers at the end of the 2022 season. Bellinger stole 20 bases and hit 26 homeruns, with a 15.6% strikeout rate in 2023. He was mostly league average in centre field in 2023. He hit .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ and was worth 4.4 fWAR in 2023.

The Cubs gave Bellinger a qualifying offer (which he declined) and as Bellinger lingered on the open market, the Cubs eventually came to terms with Bellinger on a three-year, $80 million contract for 2024-2026 with opt-outs after each season. Bellinger took a step back at the plate in 2024, hitting .266/.325/.426 for a 109 wRC+. While his defence in centre was graded league average, he spent less time at that position in 2024 due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bellinger was worth 2.2 fWAR in 2024.

Bellinger decided to not exercise his opt-out, deciding that he would likely make less on the open market than the $27.5 million he will be due to be paid in 2025 (with a $5 million buyout on his option for 2026). If Bellinger rediscovers his form in New York, he will almost certainly exercise his opt-out and become a free agent after the 2025 season.

As the Yankees are repeat luxury tax payors, they could pay up to 110% tax on spending above the top threshold. Notwithstanding the risk that Bellinger may only be in New York for a year, the Yankees probably see him as a better fit than the remaining free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander, who are both looking for larger guarantees than Bellinger.

The Cubs' interest in trading Bellinger comes from offloading his salary (which will also free up money to make Kyle Tucker an offer next off-season when he becomes a free agent). They also acquired RHP Cody Poteet from the Yankees. Poteet has 83 innings of MLB experience between the Marlins and Yankees. He missed the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery recovery. He returned to pitching in 2024, but missed three months thanks to a right triceps strain. Poteet managed to pitch 24 1/3 innings in the majors in 2024, split between four starts and one relief appearance. He allowed 2.22 ERA with a 16.7% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and a 42.3% ground ball rate. Poteet has options and will likely start the season in Triple-A.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Detroit Tigers announced that OF Akil Baddoo has cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Toledo. Baddoo had been designated for assignment to clear roster space for Alex Cobb. Baddoo hit .259/.330/.436 with 13 homeruns in 461 plate appearances in 2021, but his bat declined precipitously in 2022. Between 2022-2023, he hit .212/.302/.331 in 178 games over those two years, then only hit .137/.220/.301 in 82 plate appearances in 37 games in 2024.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Kansas City Royals agreed that they have come to terms with RHP Kyle Wright, LHP Evan Sisk and LHP Noah Cameron, thereby avoiding arbitration. Wright's deal with the Royals is $1.8 million, while the terms of the contracts with Sisk and Cameron are yet to be confirmed. Wright's salary is the same as what he made in 2024. He missed the entirety of the 2024 season after he underwent shoulder surgery in October 2023 (while still a Brave).

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Chicago White Sox and Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a trade that sends catcher Matt Thaiss from the Cubs to the White Sox in exchange for cash, according to announcements by both teams.

 

[FreoRicci]

The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are reportedly in agreement on a trade that will send OF/1B Cody Bellinger to the Bronx in exchange for RHP Cody Peteet. The Cubs are also reportedly contributing $5 million cash ($2.5 million for 2025 and $2.5 million for 2026, regardless of whether Bellinger exercises his opt-out or not). Reportedly the Yankees plan to use Bellinger in centre field, which would likely see Judge move back to right field to replace the now-departed Soto.

The trade of Bellinger will open up centre field to be the responsibility of Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2025 on a daily basis, while Michael Busch became the every-day first baseman for the Cubs. The Cubs also needed to fit Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki on the outfield corners, then traded for Kyle Tucker (who played right field with the Astros).

Bellinger was signed by the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5 million contract for 2023 after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers at the end of the 2022 season. Bellinger stole 20 bases and hit 26 homeruns, with a 15.6% strikeout rate in 2023. He was mostly league average in centre field in 2023. He hit .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ and was worth 4.4 fWAR in 2023.

The Cubs gave Bellinger a qualifying offer (which he declined) and as Bellinger lingered on the open market, the Cubs eventually came to terms with Bellinger on a three-year, $80 million contract for 2024-2026 with opt-outs after each season. Bellinger took a step back at the plate in 2024, hitting .266/.325/.426 for a 109 wRC+. While his defence in centre was graded league average, he spent less time at that position in 2024 due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bellinger was worth 2.2 fWAR in 2024.

Bellinger decided to not exercise his opt-out, deciding that he would likely make less on the open market than the $27.5 million he will be due to be paid in 2025 (with a $5 million buyout on his option for 2026). If Bellinger rediscovers his form in New York, he will almost certainly exercise his opt-out and become a free agent after the 2025 season.

As the Yankees are repeat luxury tax payors, they could pay up to 110% tax on spending above the top threshold. Notwithstanding the risk that Bellinger may only be in New York for a year, the Yankees probably see him as a better fit than the remaining free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander, who are both looking for larger guarantees than Bellinger.

The Cubs' interest in trading Bellinger comes from offloading his salary (which will also free up money to make Kyle Tucker an offer next off-season when he becomes a free agent). They also acquired RHP Cody Poteet from the Yankees. Poteet has 83 innings of MLB experience between the Marlins and Yankees. He missed the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery recovery. He returned to pitching in 2024, but missed three months thanks to a right triceps strain. Poteet managed to pitch 24 1/3 innings in the majors in 2024, split between four starts and one relief appearance. He allowed 2.22 ERA with a 16.7% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and a 42.3% ground ball rate. Poteet has options and will likely start the season in Triple-A.

Shoot me if you will, but Kyle Tucker is miles better than Cody Bellinger. Belli isn’t even close to his MVP calibre. Good trade.

Yankees fans talking this up is hilarious.

 

[JLC]

Shoot me if you will, but Kyle Tucker is miles better than Cody Bellinger. Belli isn’t even close to his MVP calibre. Good trade.

Yankees fans talking this up is hilarious.

Bellinger is pretty versatile - can play multiple positions in the outfield and 1 base.

I assume the capital to give up would have been more for Tucker. Now the Yankees can invest that in a 1B.

Probably an easier trade to get done for the Yankees.

 

[celestial]

Seems like the yankees have pivoted to building a team to win a Championship using their pitching and their bullpen rather than relying on their offense.

Still surprised they have not gone after hernandez, Santander or Pete alonso to replace some of the soto production.

 

[JLC]

Seems like the yankees have pivoted to building a team to win a Championship using their pitching and their bullpen rather than relying on their offense.

Still surprised they have not gone after hernandez, Santander or Pete alonso to replace some of the soto production.

They may still go after Santander and Walker.

In fact they still have some pitching capital that they could swing another trade, They still need a 3b and. 1b.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The New York Mets are in agreement with RHP Griffin Canning on a one year, $4.25 million contract which contains another $1 million in performance bonuses. The deal is pending a physical, but the Mets have four open spots on their 40-man roster, so the addition of Canning would not require an corresponding move.

Canning opened the off-season with the Angels, but was traded to the Braves in exchange for DH Jorge Soler. The Braves non-tendered Canning, making him an agent for the first time in his career. Canning has over five years of service time and could not be sent to the minors without his consent. He will be on the Mets' roster in some capacity during 2025, though he might be used as a long reliever rather than as a starter.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Third baseman Nolan Arenado reportedly has exercised his veto right under the terms of his contract to block a trade of Arenado from the Cardinals to the Astros. It is not clear how advanced discussions between the Cardinals and Astros went, but the talks ended when Arenado informed the Cardinals that he would not waive his no-trade clause.

It appears that Arenado at one stage during the off-season was prepared to consider a move to Houston via trade, but reportedly decided against such a move when the Astros traded Tucker in exchange for three players, including third baseman Isaac Paredes. Presumably, had Arenado been prepared to move to Houston, the Astros would shift Paredes to first base and use Arenado at third.

It is unclear whether Arenado's opposition to the trade is set in stone or whether it's because it is still too early for him to make a decision about his playing future. Reportedly the Cardinals were set to eat some of the money they owe to Arenado (he is owed $74 million over the next three years, with $10 million covered by the Rockies as part of the trade from Colorado to Missouri), but the Cardinals are prepared to give between $15-$20 million towards his salary contribution.

Arenado blocks potential trade to Astros (sources)

The Astros’ pursuit of Nolan Arenado has hit a major roadblock. According to sources, the Astros and Cardinals were in discussions on a potential trade involving the third baseman, but Arenado informed St. Louis that he will not waive his no-trade clause to go to Houston. The Cardinals were willing

www.mlb.com

Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado nixes trade to Astros, for now

Despite the St. Louis Cardinals’ intentions to trade him, Nolan Arenado is not close to making a decision about his future. The Athletic first reported Saturday that the Houston Astros had emerged as legitimate suitors for Arenado. By the end of the weekend, the Astros had a deal in place to...

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Detroit Tigers have signed RHP Ryan Miller to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. He will be paid $800,000 if he makes the majors. Miller made his MLB debut for the Angels last August, pitching 13 innings with six earned runs allowed, 11 strikeouts and eight walks. The Angels designated Miller for assignment when they signed Kyle Hendricks and Miller was later released.

Miller pitched 62 1/3 innings in Triple A over 34 appearances for a 2.45 ERA, a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate.

Detroit Tigers sign RHP Ryan Miller, who made debut at Comerica Park, to MiLB deal

Detroit Tigers right-handed reliever Ryan Miller struck out Jake Rogers for his first-career strikeout in his MLB debut at Comerica Park in 2024.

www.freep.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Shoot me if you will, but Kyle Tucker is miles better than Cody Bellinger. Belli isn’t even close to his MVP calibre. Good trade.

Yankees fans talking this up is hilarious.

Bellinger is pretty versatile - can play multiple positions in the outfield and 1 base.

I assume the capital to give up would have been more for Tucker. Now the Yankees can invest that in a 1B.

Probably an easier trade to get done for the Yankees.

Judge is miscast as a centre fielder, even though he took one for the team and played in centre field all season to accommodate Soto (who could only play right field). He was ranked -9 by Defensive Runs Saved in centre field this year, while Fangraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating ranked him at 0.2 at centre field.

Bellinger is not a great centre fielder any more, but he'd be a better defender in centre than Judge, so acquiring Belli allows the Yankees to put Judge back into right field, which reduces the wear and tear on Judge (useful when they have the corpse of Giancarlo Stanton as their full-time designated hitter).

Tucker is a right fielder, so it would be more of the same (basically having two right fielders in the outfield) for the Yankees if they acquired Tucker from Houston. Plus it would have been awkward trying to negotiate a deal between Houston and the Yankees given the recent history between the two teams (the Astros beat the Yankees in the ALCS in 2017 to get to the World Series, during the height of the sign-stealing scandal).

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Free agent RHP Michael Lorenzen has been talking to clubs about being a two-way player for 2025, with the idea that this could help the club that signs him get around the roster rules that limit the number of pitchers they carry. In June 2022, MLB put in a rule that limited clubs to 13 pitchers on a 26-man roster, which grows to 14 as the rosters expand to 28 for the postseason. As part of these rules, clubs must designated players as either a pitcher, a hitter or as a two-way player. When a player is designated as a two-way player, they do not count against the limits on pitchers. Accordingly, the Angels designated Ohtani as a two-way player and were able to effectively have 14 pitchers on their roster (for the good it did them).

To qualify for two-way status, the player must meet certain criteria. They must have pitched at least 20 innings and have played 20 games as a position player or as designated hitter, getting at least three plate appearances in those games, in either the current season or the previous one.

Lorenzen and his agent have approached clubs on the basis that they let him get the necessary plate appearances to qualify for the two-way status, which would then apply for the remainder of 2025 and 2026.

When Lorenzen was with the Reds, he received between five and 53 plate appearances per season from 2015 to 2019. He hit seven homeruns, but walked at a 4.8% rate and struck out 31.7% of the time. He hit .235/.279/.432 over that time period, which includes a .208/.283/.313 slash line in 2019 in 53 plate appearances. Lorenzen had one plate appearance in 2020 and 2021, and has not been asked to hit at any point in the last three seasons.

It would seem that Lorenzen's strategy is to entice a rebuilding time, like the White Sox or Marlins, to sign him, give him the necessary plate appearances to qualify as a two-way player, and then trade him to a contender at the deadline to enable that contender to get around the limits on pitchers.

Inside the unique plan to sell free-agent pitcher Michael Lorenzen as a two-way player

The idea could make the pitcher a free-agent fit for non-contenders such as the White Sox and Marlins — and a coveted trade target later.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Washington Nationals announced that they have signed RHP Michael Soroka to a one-year contract worth $9 million. The Nationals had vacancies on their 40 man roster so a roster move was not required. After being used as a reliever by the White Sox last season, it appears that the Nationals will use Soroka as a starter. The Braves drafted Soroka in 2015 and he was routinely included in top 100 prospect lists as he went through the minor leagues. He made his MLB debut in 2018 and then cemented himself as a pitcher in 2019 when he made 29 starts, pitched 174 2/3 innings and conceded 2.68 ERA. He put up a 20.3% strike out rate, a 5.8% walk raten and a 51.2% groundball rate.

However, Soroka was bit hard by the injury bug. In his third start of the 2020 season, Soroka suffered a torn right achilles tendon that required surgery. In 2021, he missed time due to shoulder inflammation and then needed a second surgery on his achilles tendon. He pitched in the minors in 2022, but was forced to cut short his comeback when he suffered elbow soreness. In 2023, he bounced up and down between Triple-A and the majors, then finished that season on the IL due to forearm inflammation.

The Braves gave up on Soroka returning to make a meaningful contribution and traded him to the White Sox as part of the return for LHP Aaron Bummer. Soroka made nine starts at the start of the season for Chicago, and put up a 6.39 ERA with a low strikeout and a high walk rate. After his ninth start, the White Sox converted him into a reliever and he pitched 36 innings of relief with a 2.75 ERA, including a very high 39% strikeout rate. As a reliever, Soroka changed his pitch mix, throewing more fastballs and sliders and relying less on his sinker and changeup.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in agreement on a minor league deal with OF Cristian Pache, who will be invited to Spring Training. Pache has bounced around the league, having initially been a Brave before being traded to the Athletics, then going to the Phillies, the Orioles and the Marlins. Pache is a strong outfield defender but a liability with the bat, having put up a combined .200/.273/.279 in 183 plate appearances in 2024 with a 35% strikeout rate. Pache is out of minor league options so none of the clubs for which he played in 2024 could send him to the minors.

Over the course of 610 plate appearances combined with the five clubs for which Pache has played, he has a career slash line of .181/.243/.275, which equates to a 46 wRC+. That hasn't been enough to offset the strong grades he receives for his defence. He has a +12 DRS and +17 OOA in 1503 big league innings.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Houston Astros have been telling other teams that they currently do not intend to trade LHP Framber Valdez, according to reports. The Astros GM, Dana Brown, had said during the recent Winter Meetings that he was prepared to "listen on all the players", which then precipitated a trade of OF Kyle Tucker to the Cubs.

The Astros have made it clear that they intend to compete in a relatively weak AL West in 2025, and Valdez would be due approximately $17.8 million in salary under arbitration. While there have not been reports of the Astros seeking to hammer out an extension with Valdez, it is possible that the Astros will ask him to lead the starting rotation for one more season, make him a qualifying offer next off-season and then collect the draft pick when he signs elsewhere on a longer term deal.

Valdez managed a 2.91 ERA in 176 1/3 innings in 2024, and has pitched in excess of 175 innings in three consecutive seasons.

Passan's hot stove temperature check: What's next in MLB free agency and on the trade market

While we wait for the next run of movement, here's which offseason areas are red hot -- and which are ice cold.

www.espn.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Philadelphia Phillies are in agreement with OF Max Kepler on a one year, $10 million contract, pending a physical.

 

[MatthewB]

Rickey Henderson dead at 65

 

[MatthewB]

 

[largebus]

Ohtani would have to steal at the incredible rate he did this year until he's 53 to break the record of 1406. And yet, Henderson could've stolen 0 bases and still been a hall of famer.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Rickey Henderson dead at 65

Starting seeing rumours of this last night. Was hoping it would be untrue, especially as nobody confirmed them by the time I went to bed last night.

Woke up this morning and saw posts by MLB on Fox and NY Post saying that he'd passed.

Appears it was complications from pneumonia.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Ohtani would have to steal at the incredible rate he did this year until he's 53 to break the record of 1406. And yet, Henderson could've stolen 0 bases and still been a hall of famer.

I very much doubt that anybody will break Rickey's stolen base record, but that undersells his contribution to the game. He was the greatest lead off hitter of all time and was able to influence the game without getting a hit. Watch the YouTube video on his 1989 ALCS MVP performance. He could hit, hit for power, run and field with the best of the best.

My favourite player and I never watched him play live. I rate him the best Oakland Athletic of all time.