Mega Thread 2024-2025 MLB Hot Stove

[Dixie Flatline]

Looking at the list of the top 25 free agents, we have:

• Juan Soto, OF, 26 years old
• Corbin Burnes, RHP, 30 years old
• Roki Sasaki, RHP, 23 years old (unlikely to be posted before January 2025)
• Blake Snell, LHP, 32 years old
• Alex Bregman, 3B, 31 years old
• Max Fried, LHP, 31 years old
• Anthony Santander, OF, 30 years old
• Pete Alonso, 1B, 30 years old
• Willy Adames, SS, 29 years old
• Jack Flaherty, RHP, 29 years old
• Tanner Scott, LHP, 30 years old
• Shane Bieber, RHP, 30 years old
• Christian Walker, 1B, 34 years old
• Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, 35 years old
• Teoscar Hernandez, OF, 32 years old
• Michael Wacha, RHP, 33 years old
• Ha-Seong Kim, SS, 29 years old
• Carlos Estevez, RHP, 32 years old
• Clay Holmes, RHP, 32 years old
• Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, 34 years old
• Gleyber Torres, 2B, 28 years old
• Tyler O'Neill, OF, 30 years old
• Sean Manaea, LHP, 33 years old
• Max Scherzer, RHP, 40 years old
• Jurickson Profar, LF, 32 years old

Other top free agents would include Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, Joc Pederson, Paul Goldschmidt, Alex Verdugo, Jeff Hoffman, Blake Treinen, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana and Carlos Santana.

I'd say that once Soto works out where he's going, the market for the likes of Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O'Neill will start to move. We may also see Pete Alonso, Christian Walker and Paul Goldschmidt find new clubs.

I think the pitching is separate from the Soto market. The Orioles seem to be want Corbin Burnes back, but he's probably looking at other options as the best free agent pitcher on the market. So once Burnes is signed, you'd think the market for other top pitchers would start to move. Sasaki not being posted until January might hold up the market for some pitchers, but I think most clubs would probably expect the bidding for Sasaki to be between the Dodgers and Padres, with the Mets being the third choice team for him.

 

[RPCB]

Everyone else just waiting on Soto or is that just me?

I only see the players as the two NY teams and Toronto/Seattle. With Boras using the Dodgers name as an interested party to try to get a deal completed quickly. This will drag into February and possibly March IMO.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I only see the players as the two NY teams and Toronto/Seattle. With Boras using the Dodgers name as an interested party to try to get a deal completed quickly. This will drag into February and possibly March IMO.

I don't think Soto wants it to drag out too long. Apparently he's already started informing those teams with which he does not intend to sign that they're out of contention, and second rounds of offers have already been made to him.

The timeframe seemed to be that he was targeting the winter meetings as his preferred date for coming to an agreement with a team. They start this Friday, so I think we'll find out one way or another by Christmas. If it keeps going into February 2025, I would be surprised, because the indications are that he wants to get it done as quickly as possible. I think this is different to last off-season, when Boras struggled to drum up much interest for his players that were free agents last off-season.

 

[largebus]

Manfred and the owner's worst idea yet. Would mean guaranteed championships for the Dodgers and Yankees every year.

 

[RPCB]

Make Theo Epstein the commissioner already.

 

[Jatz]

Manfred and the owner's worst idea yet. Would mean guaranteed championships for the Dodgers and Yankees every year.

Not the way Judge was swinging in the post season

But yes, ****ing stupid idea.

 

[largebus]

At the end of the day Rob is hired and fired by the owners to be their puppet and the punching bag in the media while they hide behind him. This was probably cooked up by a couple of them and Manfred repeated it to stir the pot

 

[revo333]

Manfred and the owner's worst idea yet. Would mean guaranteed championships for the Dodgers and Yankees every year.

Yuck.

So a guy could hit a HR and then bat again straight away?

 

[Dixie Flatline]

I know a few baseball purists who would stop watching the game if this golden at-bat rule was brought in. Manfred cares little for the purity of the game, and it's all about maximising eyeballs on the sport. He wants the casuals to start watching baseball and not wanting them to have to watch Anthony Volpe face Michael Kopech in the bottom of the ninth when the Yankees could substitute in Aaron Judge, because everybody knows who Judge is, and nobody knows Volpe.

 

[Jatz]

I'm more worried a guy who's on first base could be replaced and swing again...

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Oakland Athletics are in agreement with RHP Luis Severino on a three year contract worth $67 million, according to multiple reports. The deal is pending a physical so is yet to be confirmed officially. According to reports, Severino will receive a $10 million signing bonus and a guaranteed $57 million salary over three years. Severino will have an opt-out after the second season (2026).

Since Severino turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets, the Athletics will also forfeit their third highest pick in the 2025 MLB draft. The Mets will receive a compensatory pick, but that pick is between the fourth and fifth rounds since the Mets paid the competitive balance tax.

Severino immediately will become the Athletics' anchor in their starting lineup and will almost certainly be named the Opening Day starter, unless something remarkable occurs. Severino had a hot start to his MLB career with the Yankees in 2017-2018, pitching a total of 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, a 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and a 45.8% groundball rate. The Yankees moved to sign him to a long-term deal before he even hit arbitration, signing him to a four year, $40 million extension that bought out all of his arbitration years. While the contract seemed unders at the time, Severino suffered a number of injuries that limited his output between 2019-2023, including just 89 1/3 innings in 2023 that leaked runs to the tune of 6.65 ERA.

The Yankees let Severino walk and he signed a one-year, prove it deal with the Mets last off-season. Severino signed a one-year contract worth $13 million with the Mets and he put up 182 innings in 2024, for a 3.91 ERA, a 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and a 46% groundball rate.

 

[Jatz]

Most money ever guaranteed by the Athletics I think I'd read?

 

[RPCB]

Luis either REALLY wants to play in Sacramento… or he thinks they are playing in Vegas and he’s about to cop the shock of his life.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

While the major free agent remains OF Juan Soto, the market for the leading pitcher on the market is also starting to take shape. Reports suggest that the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees have each met with RHP Corbin Burnes, while the Yankees have also had meetings with LHP Max Fried.

The Blue Jays have also been linked to LHP Max Fried, OF Anthony Santander, SS Willy Adames and 3B Alex Bregman. There's a sense through the industry that the Blue Jays are keen to make a splash in winter, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette entering their final years of club control, while RHP Chris Bassitt becomes a free agent in the off-season and Kevin Gausman is a contracted player only until the end of the 2026 season.

Burnes has drawn interest from a number of clubs as the best free agent pitcher on the market, with the Yankees, Giants and Red Sox all known to have interest in him, in addition to the Blue Jays. The Baltimore Orioles, for whom Burnes pitched in 2024 after being traded there by the Brewers last off-season, would like to keep Burnes, but it is not yet clear whether the Orioles ownership would extend the budget to the salary that Burnes is likely to command in free agency. Since Burnes turned down a qualifying offer, the Orioles are in line to receive a compensatory pick after the first round of the 2025 draft if he goes elsewhere. Similarly, since Santander also rejected a qualifying offer, should he sign with another club for 2025, the Orioles would again receive a compensatory pick between the first and second rounds.

Latest news on Juan Soto and other top free agents | 12/05/2024

MLB insider JP Morosi discusses the market for Anthony Santander and Alex Bregman, plus Alec Bohm's future

www.mlb.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

With Frankie Montas and Luis Severino now off the market, attention is turning towards RHP Tommy Kahnle. The veteran pitcher has drawn interest from the likes of the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies, among eight clubs said to be interested in signing Kahnle.

Kahnle was drafted by the Yankees in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, lost him to the Rockies in the 2013 Rule 5 draft, then signed him as a free agent in the 2022-2023 off-season. He has spent parts of six seasons in the Bronx, with a combined 3.31 ERA over that time span. In 2023-2024, Kahnle pitched even better, putting up a 2.38 ERA in 83 1/3 innings, including a 27.3% strikeout rate, albeit with an elevated 11% walk rate.

Similarly, RHP Clay Holmes is of interest to a number of teams, with several teams thinking of Holmes as a possible starter rather than reliever. According to Joel Sherman of the NY Post, the Mets are one such team that are considering putting Holmes in their starting rotation. Holmes has no experience as a starter in the big leagues. He made four starts with the Pirates back in 2018, putting up 15 innings of 7.80 ERA with 13 walks and 12 strikeouts. He did come into the professional game as a starter.

Exclusive | MLB teams interested in Clay Holmes as a starter — including the Mets

Add one more potential starting pitching arm to the free-agent market.

nypost.com

Where the Phillies stand heading into the Winter Meetings

Team and league sources have portrayed a club that's actively seeking to shuffle the roster, but without a clear path toward doing so.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Infielder Hyeseong Kim was officially posted by his KBO club the Kiwoom Heroes overnight, triggering a 30-day period for MLB clubs to negotiate a contract with Kim. Similarly, RHP Koyo Aoyagi was posted by his NPB club, the Hanshin Tigers. Aoyagi will come to the MLB (if he signs a contract with a MLB club) at the age of 31, which will likely limit his upside in contract negotiations. Aoyagi is a starter with the Tigers, but his style of delivery makes him more likely to be a reliever in the majors, and he was even demoted to the minors in the NPB last season, making 12 starts in the top level in Japan and 11 appearances in the minors. Aoyagi represented Japan in the 2020 Olympics, but was not selected for the 2023 WBC.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Philadelphia Phillies have let teams know that incumbent third baseman Alec Bohm is available for trade. One team that has been exploring a trade for Bohm has been the Seattle Mariners, who also reportedly have had discussions with the Chicago Cubs concerning Nico Hoerner.

The Mariners are set to have a very different infield in 2025 compared to 2024. The Mariners allowed Justin Turner to become a free agent at the end of the 2024 season, while Ty France was traded to the Reds. The Mariners declined to exercise a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. Of the 2024 infielders, it seems that only J.P. Crawford will be guaranteed a spot in the infield for 2025.

The Mariners seem ready to use Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss in the infield until prospect Cole Young is ready to take over second base. Luke Raley is a potential starter at first base, but may also find himself in the corner outfield and would likely be part of a platoon, since he hits well against right handed pitching and badly against left handed pitching (Raley bats left handed).

Accordingly, the Mariners could use an upgrade at third base, and don't seem to have money to spend on free agents. Therefore, a trade with the Phillies for Bohm could make sense, but reports suggest that the Phillies are asking for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return for Bohm. Given the fact that Gilbert and Kirby each have more years of club control remaining compared to Bohm, a one-for-one swap would not make sense from the Mariners' perspective.

Could Mariners trade for this All-Star third baseman to fill need?

Two months into the Mariners’ offseason, the club’s greatest need has come into focus: They have to find a new third baseman.

www.seattletimes.com

 

[largebus]

Hot stove is cooking finally. Mets looking like Soto's most likely destination now.
Brandon Crawford retiring and missing on Correa last year meant Adames to the Giants was the most predictable FA signing of the offseason.
Both deals feel like unders, especially for O'Neill, he hit 31 HRs in 113 games and has 2 gold gloves, though he has the opt-out.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Reading between the lines, it looks like Juan Soto's choices are narrowing, given that the stove is starting to bubble for other outfielders. In addition to OF Tyler O'Neill signing with the Orioles over the weekend, speculation is starting to grow that OF Teoscar Hernandez is narrowing his choice to one of the Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees, while the Blue Jays are also interested in Hernandez should their chase for Soto fall through.

According to reports, the big spending Mets have pushed the price to land Soto over $700 million. The Dodgers remain interested in signing Soto, but are thought to be the least aggressive in terms of bidding for his services, and are seen to be the most likely to cease pursuing Soto in favour of an alternative, such as Teoscar Hernandez.

For his part, it's unlikely that Hernandez will sign before Soto does, but he previously said publicly that he would welcome a reunion with the Dodgers, with whom he won a World Series and hit .272/.339/.501 with 33 homeruns in 652 plate appearances. Hernandez signed a one-year, $23.5 million contract with the Dodgers last off-season and is poised to cash in on a bounceback year after a poor 2023 for Hernandez with the Mariners.

The Red Sox chased Hernandez last off-season but their two-year, $28 million contract was rejected by Hernandez in favour of the one-year contract the Dodgers offered. However, according to one report, Hernandez has long been intrigued by the prospect of playing at Fenway and he is a fan of Alex Cora.

Hernandez did turn down the Dodgers' qualifying offer last month, but that is not likely to curtail Hernandez's market. If the Yankees signed Hernandez, then they would forfeit $1 million in international signing bonus pool money, and their second and fifth highest picks in the 2025 draft. The Red Sox would forfeit $500,000 in pool money and their second-highest 2025 draft pick. The Dodgers would not give up anything, given he is one of their free agents.

Cotillo: What Tyler O’Neill signing with Orioles means for the Red Sox

Red Sox home run leader Tyler O'Neill won't be returning to Boston in 2025 and they made zero effort to retain him. What does it all mean?

www.masslive.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The New York Mets have signed RHP Oliver Ortega to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Ortega was outrighted off the Astros' 40-man roster last month and he elected minor league free agency. Ortega made his MLB debut in 2021, and has a career 4.03 ERA, 20.4% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate in 58 career innings with the Angels and Twins. Although he was claimed off waivers by the Astros from the Twins in October 2023, he never appeared in a MLB game for Houston, and also did not pitch in the minors, after he had surgery in Spring Training and then in June on his elbow.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

According to reports, the Diamondbacks and Cubs have had discussions regarding a potential swap of OF/1B Cody Bellinger for LHP Jordan Montgomery, but the Cubs were lukewarm on the idea. Bellinger chose to pass on his opt-out clause in the wake of an average 2024 season, meaning that he will be paid $27.5 million in 2025. Bellinger can then opt out of his last year of his deal in exchange for a $2.5 million buyout, or he foregoes the opt-out and re-ups for $25 million in 2026.

Unsurprisingly, given his poor year in 2024 with the Diamondbacks, Montgomery decided against opting out of the second year of his two-year contract signed with Arizona, and will be paid $22.5 million for the 2025 season. Montgomery pitched 117 innings for Arizona in 2024, for a 6.23 ERA, and copped some stinging criticism from Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick in October.

MLB rumors: Juan Soto bids eclipse $700 million as Winter Meetings kick off

Free agent Juan Soto looks set to break the record set by Shohei Ohtani's $700 million deal last winter.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Pittsburgh Pirates have signed RHP Tanner Rainey and RHP Hunter Stratton to minor league deals. Rainey gets an invitation to Spring Training, but it is not clear whether Stratton also receives an invitation. Given that the contract has been signed in early December, it is likely that Stratton will also have an invitation to Spring Training.

Rainey spent six seasons in Washington, including a World Series in 2019, but also missed almost all of the 2023 season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. In 2024, Rainey pitched 51 innings for the Nationals, putting up a 4.76 ERA, 19% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate.

Stratton was non-tendered by the Pirates last month, but it was expected that he would return to the Pirates on a minor league contract after he pitched 49 2/3 innings for the Pirates in the last two seasons for a 3.26 ERA and 4.9% walk rate. However, Stratton managed to rupture his patellar tendon in an innocuous incident in August that will cost him at least part of the 2025 season, with projected timeline for his recovery varying from April to late June.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

With Willy Adames now a San Francisco Giant, the options for other teams looking for shortstop assistance have dwindled a bit. The Detroit Tigers are interested in free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim. The former Padre underwent shoulder surgery in October and is set to miss the start of the 2025 season to recover from the operation. However, his timeline is not yet clear, with Kim's agent, Scott Boras, telling the media that he should be ready to go in late April, but the Padres previously saying that he may not be ready until July.

The Tigers are still paying Javier Baez to play shortstop, as he has a contract until the end of the 2027 season, but his time in Detroit has been generally terrible and he will be spending some of 2025 recovering from hip surgery that ended his 2024 season in August. Trey Sweeney was the fill-in shortstop for the Tigers in the end of the regular season and in the playoffs, and did enough to be under consideration for the role moving forward. If the Tigers signed Kim, then Sweeney could continue to fill in until Kim is ready to take over the position or Kim could be moved to third base in case either Sweeney or Baez are filling the role at shortstop.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The Classic Baseball Era Committee members voted on the election of a number of players to the Hall of Fame. Dave Parker and Dick Allen each received the requisite number of votes (12 out of 16) to be elected to the Hall of Fame. Tommy John (seven votes), Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris and Luis Tiant (each less than five votes) did not receive sufficient votes to be elected.



Dick Allen played 15 seasons (1963-1977) for five teams, including nine seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. He hit 351 home runs, drove in 1119 RBI and had a career .292 average. He won the 1972 AL MVP and was named the 1964 NL Rookie of the Year. He also was named an All-Star on seven occasions.

Ken Boyer played 15 seasons as third baseman with the Cardinals, Mets, White Sox and Dodgers. He was an All-Star on 11 occasions and won the 1964 NL MVP and a world series in 1964 with the Cardinals.

John Donaldson will be familiar to anyone who plays diamond dynasty in MLB the Show over the last two game cycles. He pitched in the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues for over 30 years and earned a reputation as one of the best pitchers of all time. Donaldson also played in the outfield and took up a career managing post-playing, and helped established the barnstorming model that was profitable for many African-American teams until integration.

Steve Garvey played 19 major league seasons for the Dodgers and Padres, hitting a career .294 average, with 2,599 hits, 272 homeruns, 1308 RBIs and was named an All-Star on 10 occasions. He also was the 1978 and 1984 MLCS MVP and the 1981 Roberto Clemente Award winner.

Vic Harris played 18 seasons in the Negro Leagues, primarily as a left fielder for the Homestead Grays. He compiled a .303 career batting average and was well-known for being an aggressive base runner. He managed the Grays for 11 seasons, winning seven Negro National League pennants and the 1948 Negro World Series.

Tommy John is best known for being associated with the surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow as the first pitcher to undergo such a procedure. However, Tommy John was also an accomplished player in his own right, playing 26 seasons for the Indians, White Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Angels and Athletics. He finished his career after the 1989 season with a record of 288-231 and a career 3.34 ERA. He made 700 career starts to rank eighth on the all-time list and his 4,710 1/3 innings ranks 20th all time.

Dave Parker played 19 seasons in the majors, primarily with the Pirates and then with the Reds. He hit 339 homeruns, drove in 1,493 RBI and won two batting titles (1977 and 1978). He was the 1978 NL MVP and was named to seven All-Star games and won three Gold Glove Awards in right field.

Luis Tiant won at least 20 games in four of his 19 MLB seasons with the Indians, Twins, Red Sox, Yankees, Pirates and Angels, finishing his career with 229 wins and a 3.30 ERA. He won two American League ERA titles, including a 1.60 ERA in 1968 and led the league in shutouts on three separate occasions.

To be eligible for consideration, players must have 10+ league seasons, while managers and umpires must have 10+ major league seaons and be retired for at least five years (candidates who are 65 years or older are eligible six months following retreiement), and executives retired for at least five years (acting executives 70+ are eligible for consideration regardless of the position they hold in an organisation and regardless of whether their body of work has been completed). All candidates must not be on the Ineligible List.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

The New York Mets are reportedly in agreement with OF Juan Soto on a 15 year, $765 million contract.