Preview 2023 Elimination Final - Carlton vs Sydney Friday 8th Sept 7.50PM @ MCG

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Team is in …


IN: Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Marc Pittonet
OUT: Paddy Dow, Corey Durdin, Zac Fisher, Ollie Hollands

After starting the last game as sub, Caleb Marchbank has been elevated into the starting 22.





www.carltonfc.com.au

AFL team news: Who's in for the elimination final?

Some big Blues are back for the clash with Sydney.
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Backs:Brodie KempJacob WeiteringNic Newman
Half-backs:Alex CincottaMitch McGovernAdam Saad
Centreline:Blake AcresPatrick CrippsSam Docherty
Half-forwards:Jack MartinHarry McKayDavid Cuningham
Forwards:Lachie FogartyCharlie CurnowMatthew Owies
Followers:Marc PittonetAdam CerraSam Walsh
Interchange:Matthew CottrellTom De KoningGeorge Hewett
Caleb Marchbank
Emergencies:Paddy DowZac FisherOllie Hollands
Jesse Motlop
 

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Sydney will have to adjust their entries into forward fifty for the longer MCG - a positive for Carlton defenders - but they will aslo have more width to use- a positive for their fast flankers. Up front they have experienced weapons in Heeney/Papley and to get things going a young gun in Gulden who sets up a lot of inside fifty entries and is also a capable finisher given the opportunity - he will need close attention. Sam Wicks is in very good form as well - and has kicked multiple goals against Carlton in teh past. Sydney's outside run is their one wood in attack with Blakey rebound run and booming kick the default from defensive turnovers.

The midfield on ball battle will favour Carltons bigger mids with plenty of running power in Walsh and Cerra - more dangerous than Parker's smarts is a young fella called Warner because of his burst speed. Their ruck is serviceable without ever being dominant - Pittonet would find it relatively easy to halve if not win contests - but lose in leg speed. TDK would jump all over him as he does most rucks. I would desccribe Sydney mids as role players compared to Carlton's combination - however they are well drilled and not ever allergic to the ground ball game and they play 4 quarter football.

If both teams play to their best Carlton wins - fairly comfortably. However it will be more difficult for Carlton to play to its best as Walsh, Cerra, McGovern are all one game back from hamstring injuries and a bunch of players have copped a battering playing what have been a series of elimination games starting two months ago...

The one glaring mismatch between the two sides is the height difference between Carltons potential mix of forwards and their KP defenders. Sydney can cover Charlie for height - but they really dont have any cover for Harry and TDK - against this is Sydney's ability to scramble as a defensive team with excellent rebound run from Blakey in particular. They like a boundary side first kick followed by a quick centering balls when rebounding via kicks- when runnign the ball they rely on Blakey's straight running power and go through the middle. Carlton can probably outmatch them on defensive boundary flank contests - but covering the center will require the mids to run with their opponent. The Sydnrey midfield run will test Cripps and Dow's two way running power - so effective forward defensive capability will go a long way to winning this game - by depriving Sydney of the corridor and pushing them wide. Voss ahs to appoint a mid to be able to intercept a centering kcik and or take a relief contested mark in similr position.

Sydney will look to exploit the opposite flank to Acres and test the forward defensive pressure capability of Carltons smalls - a lot of responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Carlton's 'role' players in this game- because that is who Sydney will run through from defensive 50. In Carlton's forward fifty - Sydney will look to use their fast crumbing smalls as much as their marking targets - they may have Carlton 'covered' in forward leg speed - with Saad being the only Carlton defender capable of runnign with Papley or Wicks. Cincotta wil be tested for this ( as woudl Marchbank)- so I can see arguments for Boyds inclusion - although he too has been absent due to suspension. Weitering and Newman will jhabve their hands full organising the defensice structure to make sure leg speed mismatches are minimised. McGovern and Kemp's intercept marking - could nullify Guldens 50 entry kicks- if they are switched on - so it is imperative that Carlton mids run hard each way - because Sydney are well capable of exploiting tired legs - that is what they are set up for.
 
I don't subscribe to this notion that we can't play Harry in the ruck. The people who are saying this are the same people who said we can't play JSOS in the ruck, and look at what he has done in the past 2 years. And people are completely overrating the importance of a backup ruck. Is Harry great in the ruck? Not particularly, but if Daniher can go in and just be a presence then so can Harry. Daniher playing backup ruck means Brisbane don't have to play Big O and Fort together, both of which are pure rucks. If we bring in pitto then TDK gets plonked in the forward line where his output significantly drops.

Goodwin wanted to play with 2 elite level rucks, it took him about 17 rounds to realise it doesn't work, but better late than never and now look at gawn and the dees with van Rooyen/smith pinch-hitting. Luke Jackson has played his absolute best footy ever since darcy has been out of the side. Pittonet is a battler and a warrior but he can't contribute anything outside of stoppages. Once the bulldogs played English on his own and moved on from Stefan Martin you've seen how English has taken his game to a new level. Its well and truly time for Voss to put his 2 ruck fetish in the bin and give TDK the keys to the sole ruck.
 

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The Old Dark Navy's said:
Pittonet, TDK, McKay, Curnow, Weitering, McGovern, Kemp
Hickey, McLean, McDonald, Amartey, McCartin, Blakey, Rampe

The only issue is they do have more speed than us, which is why people think we need an extra runner.
Click to expand...

I love leg speed, but speed of ball movement is always the priority
 
Our biggest worry is that we have too many players lacking match fitness returning from long layoffs as well as a potential injury to Acres.

I don't know who will be in the team but I am backing us in to get it right. It's really hard to pick. We played poorly against GWS. We had no reason to win and go hard and they had every reason to. I'm not worried about that, if we can't get up for a final like we have been for the past 9 weeks then something is seriously wrong. We will be up and about, without doubt.

Think things get better for us if we can just get through this first final, win that and we will be on the up. A lot of players lacking match fitness and form, the best way to get that back is to win a hard fought finals game. But we have to win it.

A lot of criticism of Fisher. 24 possessions and a goal, so offensively he was good. Defensively he has been doing better and surely in the finals he does better. Cincotta was quiet but I think has been ok defensively though it did look like his man was getting it a bit towards the end. Boyd has not been given a look in since being available but he was very very good prior to being suspended. So there will be a lot of talk about these three come selection I think.

Hoping Acres comes back. Shoulders can be slow and some players can be really poor playing with a bad shoulder. Docherty back to the wing IMO. Cottrell or Hollands for one spot. Hard to pick but we probably go with more experienced Cottrell but I don't know. Hollands was better statistically though. Cuningham and Fogarty. Cuningham had a lot of the ball. Fogarty was average. Has been good but was pretty ordinary, they may end up going with a second proper ruckman, shame Silvagni was not fit.

Pittonet could come back in, McKay needs to have a lot more work done on his ruck game and IMO next year that should happen. one thing rucking McKay exposed is that he isn't a great user of his body, he's not in marking contests either for a guy that size. It's an area Curnow has improved a lot on and an area McKay could improve a lot on and doing more ruck work will really help with that.

Does Dow make it? It's a shame he has not made it as a forward as well because he slips into the team easily as a forward/mid. A super important role come finals as the intensity is going to be physically tolling on our midfield.

Sydney Swans on the MCG is what we went. We have been the standout team of the bottom 4 finals teams. We finished 5th, we finished strongly, we play a team who scraped into finals. But this teams was last year's runners up. Probably fortunate to be runners up playing a prelim on the SCG but all the same they finished 2nd.

I didn't think the Swans looked that flash last week. Beaten by Melbourne at home. They were on a long winning streak like us, however unlike us their wins were over mediocre to poor teams. No real big scalps in there.

Stats wise we smash them for disposals and are better in hitouts. They are higher in contested possession, Tackles and Clearnances both centre and total. Could this worry us?

We played them up there when we were crap. Playing them down here with an in form team should count for a bit. The team we had in that day was good on paper and pretty similar to the team which has brought about our resurgence. However game plan and player effort has changed for the better since then.

The main thing is that we must remain daring and we need to make sure that the effort, tackling and pressure is elite. The aspects of our game that saw us win 9 games in a row need to be our focus for this match. Tackle well, pressure well, backing players in, midfield rotations play a fast and direct brand of footy that puts the opposition under a lot more pressure to defend.

Overall we are the better team on paper and form. But everything counts for nothing.

I think this one comes down to fitness. Can we run out the game. Can our incoming players run out the game and do the two way running required? Think this game is won and lost on the outside. Two way running at speed, covering the field at speed will be important. We got done on the outside by GWS so we need to be better than that.

Docherty and Cripps will be massive ins. Both players have provided a huge bulk of the contested and tackling work and with their leadership, they will be cracking the whip the whole 4 quarters.

We will be hoping that we can get on a role in clearances IMO. The big part of our winning form has been clearances, contested ball and the manner in which we clear the ball along with our tackling and pressure. Acres getting up for this and playing well is big for us.


A guess at the team, I don't think Voss is afraid to go back to what he sees as best 22. We saw it last year in our round 23 "final" that we are happy to play players who haven't had games under their belt. In saying that we have a heap who have earned a spot.

B: Newman Weitering Kemp
HB: Saad McGovern Fisher
C: Acres Cripps Docherty
HF: Motlop Martin Cuningham
F: McKay Curnow Owies
OB: Pittonet Walsh Cerra
IC: Boyd Hewett Cottrell DeKoning
SB: Dow
EM: Cincotta Hollands Fogarty Marchbank

If Silvagni is fit then he plays. Not sure for which ruck though but probably for Pittonet.

It's going to be out of Fisher, Boyd and Cincotta for a final spot. Can't split them. Fisher gets a lot of it and takes the pressure off Saad. Cincotta is decent lock down. Boyd looks to have a little bit of both and is an excellent one on one defender.

Think the McKay part time ruck experiment needs way more work and we should work on it but next year, not during finals.

Hollands or Cottrell for the third winger is interesting. Both put forward really good cases.

Marchbank is really unlucky as he has just built some fitness and form. McGovern and Kemp will play ahead of him though.

Fogarty really unlucky as he has been one of our best pressure forwards and gives us that midfield rotation but I just can't see how he fits in with the two rucks. Think we will want to keep that extra tall forward, put pressure on them to defend height. Cuningham goes back to probably the only forward/mid so a lot more midfield minutes for him.

Dow unlucky not to be in the 22 but gee he is an impactful sub. Definite to come on at half time and give us that burst and break away power.

Will we be too tall? Will we be too slow? Let's just hope that we are too good. Blues by 4 goals.
 
4flagsin5yrs said:
Fisher will get torn a new one trying to defend the band of Swans' smalls....
Click to expand...
Always liked Fish, since we drafted him. Yet, as it stands. Don't see him in our best 23. Hoping that Boyd gets picked, got the attributes to shine in finals games. Is tough, loves to tackle and has genuine leg speed. All things that Fish lacks.
 
Mentally the team had 9 weeks of elimination finals to contend with and once safe with no course for ladder change they mentally needed a rest and were human and eased off.

Get that 9 week elimination mentality back for 4 weeks only and we’re a real chance… meaning if we lose we make the opponent really have to earn it.
 

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Wickzki said:
Sydney went 2-7 against top 8 teams this year.

That's Not to say they can't just turn it around now but it's not a good look going into finals.
Click to expand...
On form and potential line-ups I'd have us ahead of Sydeney.... but with Horse as coach, and with plenty of finals experience, they'll still be hard at.... Blues should still win however.
 
I’m still concerned about the way they ran amok on us, in the pre- season game - Gulden did as he pleased.

Yes I understand it was a pre-season game but if we don’t bring our game from the first bounce they have the potential to get a hold of us.

Go Blues!!!!

Don’t just “believe” …. D.O!!!
 
4flagsin5yrs said:
Fisher will get torn a new one trying to defend the band of Swans' smalls....
Click to expand...

Michael Jezz said:
Fisher is not fit to shine Martin's boots
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While I am concerned with Fisher's defensive strength, think these comments are a tad over the top

Most sides have an attacking HB, who is less defensive

You need to weigh up all players in the back 7 and while someone like Cincotta is there to primarily shut down an opponent and is stronger defensively, he does lose his opponent far too often

I think it's more of a toss up between Cincotta and Fisher, which will come down to the sum of all parts as a defensive 7

I have Cincotta just ahead based on the last outing, but have Fisher ahead over the last month
 
Revenant1965 said:
On form and potential line-ups I'd have us ahead of Sydeney.... but with Horse as coach, and with plenty of finals experience, they'll still be hard at.... Blues should still win however.
Click to expand...

I agree with this. We know how to win. I think much of the second half of the season for us was finals footy because of how far back we started.

We should win. But it's not something we can take for granted Given that they won last time while undermanned (at home during our losing streak that), they'll be confident going in.
 
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