AFL 2023 - AFL Round 24

[balmainforever]

 

[dontlimitme]

 

[tangolikelama]

Langford 3+
McStay 2+
Mihocek 2+
Ginnivan 2+
Cox AGS
Parish 25+
Daicos 20+
Crisp 15+
@57.45 PB

Nic or Mason COX?

 

[dontlimitme]

free hit sb multi tonight

Mihocek 3+
Elliot 2+
Mcstay/Ginni AGS
15+ De HOEY
20+ Daicos/crisp

7$ SB

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Odds been smashed in on 365 for some games for reasonable cashouts. Very weird.

Damn, must have been a bug, back to normal….could have cashed out so many……

 

[tangolikelama]

free hit sb multi tonight

Mihocek 3+
Elliot 2+
Mcstay/Ginni AGS
15+ De HOEY
20+ Daicos/crisp

7$ SB

If its a free hit - I'd prefer to see something more degenerate campaigner

 

[dontlimitme]

If its a free hit - I'd prefer to see something more degenerate campaigner

i'd pay to hit you

 

[tangolikelama]

i'd pay to hit you

woah

 

[dontlimitme]

woah

TOP DOLLAR BABY

 

[dontlimitme]

woah

FIRE UP TANG

 

[tangolikelama]

FIRE UP TANG

Fired up campaigner

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[freo_leo29]

Pies -30 Ginni 2 bobby 2 @ 11s

 

[dontlimitme]

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[mookieb]

I like your thinking. I went back and took a look at the final round of last year.

Here's the results with the final ladder position for each team (not including the two matches where both teams still had something to play for).

View attachment 1784687

GWS put up a good fight against Freo.
Hawthorn fought it out against Footscray.
St Kilda did likewise vs Sydney.

Blowouts

North lost by 67 to GC (who were only 12th)
Eagles got spanked by Geelong to the tune of 84 points.
Essendon lost by 66 to Richmond.
Adelaide got rolled by 56 by Port (who were only 11th)

So four out of seven games featuring at least one team with nothing to play for, ended in a big margin.
Two of those matches feaured two teams with no chance of finals.

And of the two matches where both teams had finals hopes, one ended in a blowout, one ended in a one-point margin.

Something to ponder...

It is a lot to ponder. I have looked at the final round results plenty over the years and it comes down to motivation or teams looking to go out on a high (sometimes this round sometimes previous rounds). It's a lot of speculation so an imperfect art.

This is potential options I like:

Coll vs Ess

Total points. Coll total points. Alt points over.

Leaning towards Ess doing a WC like fightback after their humiliation, but their team selection isn't encouraging. Possibly start strong then get overrun scenario.

Hawks vs Freo

Total points over. Hawks total points. Hawks line.

Dead rubber. Both teams finished the season strong. More likely Hawks turn up given it's a home game and their probably in better form.

NM vs GC

Total points over. GC line.

Dead rubber so on the overs, but the overs didn't hit last year due to North being so insipid. NM a massive incentive to not win, but nothing on the line for GC after the heart breaker last week.

Bris vs NM

Line is too big for mine given Saints form, but it looks like Bris have more to play for so leaving alone.

Geel vs WB

WB line. WB 40+.

Cats pretty much accepting that this game means nothing to them.

WC vs Ade

Total points. Alt totals.

Dead rubber. Both teams facing a potential massive letdown after games last week. Hurn and Shuey farewell games and Eagles at home so they have that in their favour. Should be a bruise free shootout.

Port vs Rich

Total points. Port total. Alt totals. Port line.

Rich GF last week. Should be on cruise mode for this game. Port to tune up for finals.

Syd vs Melb

Syd H2H. Syd alt margins.

Swans need to win and Demons don't.

Carl vs GWS

GWS H2H. GWS line.

If WB win then these bets are gold. If WB lose I'll grab a middle quickly and look to get on the over as it will be a massive dead rubber.

Some multi's weaving in H2H and lines and some with totals in dead rubber games.

Always a fun round to bet on and always likely to be a few surprises thrown in along the way.

 

[Atavistic]

Damn, must have been a bug, back to normal….could have cashed out so many……

What do you have? I have Miers 3 and Stanley 2.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

What do you have? I have Miers 3 and Stanley 2.

De Goey, Stanley, Ah Chee, Neale, Danger, Henry, Naughton, Weightman

All odds were wound in. Mihocek was $1.70 for 4

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Yes it does.
Your GIANTS currently need an upset to play finals but even so, Pies finishing 2nd makes their likely prelim opponent Dees or Blues (and you've just said you don't like the Dees matchup)

They are $1.45 to play finals at Sportsbet. Not sure how that’s “needing an upset”.

It might look better if they dodge Melbourne week 1 but when you break it all down it's minimal. Pies hardly going to lose in purpose given their form and the Essendon team looks pretty poor tonight.

So it’s gone from “much harder prelim” to the difference is “minimal”.

this means they have a much harder prelim though.
So the actual overall edge is slim if anything

I just don’t think the Pies have any incentive to win tonight and McRae has said it’s been hard to motivate the players the past few weeks. Essendon definitely have more incentive after the embarrassment of last week. I agree with you that the Essendon team looks poor though, and think they are only slight value and could in fact get pumped.

 

[fpm84]

Nic or Mason COX?

Mason, assume he’ll spend at least 40% of his game time forward with D Cameron in the side too.

 

[GROTTO]

Pies will be significantly advantaged if they lose tonight. Win, they play Melbourne at the MCG in a neutral game. Lose they play Port at the MCG in a home game. What are the odds they just happen to allow Essendon to score as much as they want and just happen to lose?

$4.40

POTY on the Punting Forum.

 

[dontlimitme]

dons lost by 130 ****ing points to the giants last week in what world will they be competitive tonight

quote this when they are up by 20 at halftime and i look like an idiot

 

[Rank]

The multi is around $4 on sb, probably higher elsewhere.

If you think this is an absolute lock, how many units are you putting down?

I agree with your logic but I wouldn't call it a lock, I might chuck a cheeky 2u on it though, will need some cash for week one of finals

I'll add Gold Coast and Bulldogs as well. 1 unit

 

[Rank]

The multi is around $4 on sb, probably higher elsewhere.

If you think this is an absolute lock, how many units are you putting down?

I agree with your logic but I wouldn't call it a lock, I might chuck a cheeky 2u on it though, will need some cash for week one of finals

Dogs
GCoast
Swans
Giants @8.20 boosted SB wish I got on early in the week though

 

[NYRB]

Bombers outs are quite big names: Draper, Wright, Guelfi, Stringer, Caldwell and Jake Kelly

29

Jake Kelly

Age

29

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

157.8

2star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

104.1

2star

D

14.8

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.2

5star

MG

107.0

2star

. Those players combined expected to kick 6-7 goals between them if Bombers to be competitive .

Weidemann is one of the laziest footballers going around.

In games like this, with a minor premiership up on the line- I expect Collingwood to want to win. Danger thing is to always start thinking about the week ahead or two weeks ahead.