AFL 2023 - AFL Round 11 (Sir Doug Nicholls Round - part 2)

[balmainforever]

 

[JonezTiges]

Going early on a very speculative one.

Sam Berry averaged 18 touches last year, and he also hit the scoreboard in 4 out of the last 5 games (Including 2.0 in one game). He's been in the SANFL where he kicked 3.5 from his 4 games, and he came on as the sub last week and had 12 touches in 64% game time.

1 goal and 15 possies @ $11.
2 goals and 15 possies @ $131.

You can also just take him for goals at $6 and $71 for 1 and 2. There's every chance he'll be dropped or the sub again, so this may all be for nothing.

 

[dontlimitme]

Going early on a very speculative one.

Sam Berry averaged 18 touches last year, and he also hit the scoreboard in 4 out of the last 5 games (Including 2.0 in one game). He's been in the SANFL where he kicked 3.5 from his 4 games, and he came on as the sub last week and had 12 touches in 64% game time.

1 goal and 15 possies @ $11.
2 goals and 15 possies @ $131.

You can also just take him for goals at $6 and $71 for 1 and 2. There's every chance he'll be dropped or the sub again, so this may all be for nothing.

still blows my mind the amount of time people post in this thread and never include which book its with lol

 

[bulletride]

still blows my mind the amount of time people post in this thread and never include which book its with lol

I just assume every time it's at obscene odds like that its 365 and sadly useless to me

 

[bulletride]

Giants backline looks pretty cast this week with Haynes and Himmelberg going out of an already undermanned defence. Hawkins and Cameron should be able to run rampant back at GMHBA but their odds are horrific. As usual though, there's value in the goal in each quarter market.

Hawkins and Cameron goal in each quarter $83 SB boosted.

 

[fpm84]

I’ve talked up Richmond and Fremantle MLs in the past fortnight and nobody listened so I’m doing it again with GWS.

Geelong has now added Holmes to our injury list and will not regain Dangerfield as expected.

Our team is the most descimated I can ever recall. Blicavs, Atkins and Bruhn v Coniglio, Green and Callaghan. Yikes.

GWS has won the past two times they’ve played at KP and are $7 at PB - madness.

 

[srobbo]

Like the Weed for 4/5/6 @ $5/$11/$26 against West Coast.

Kicked 2.3 last week, 5.2 against Geel few weeks back & has been good for 2-3 most weeks. Eagles wave the white flag, this might be a career best night for him ala Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

a few weeks ago.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Freo 20.5 start against Dees minus Oliver seems good, Freo have really discovered their identity and confidence and have the mids and ruck set up to go with us, our form isn't as good as people think neither is our advantage at the MCG...

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Rosas grew up in NT, back @ TIO this weekend for Indigenous round.

2,3 @ 3.90,12.50 Lads, 4 @ 40 365

 

[Mags98]

dunno how the odds are so tight for rich/port or carl/syd

guess richmond could surprise for dimma but still port are way too good, lines at -1.5 ish for both blues and port

 

[kicksome]

guess richmond could surprise for dimma but still port are way too good

could be that stat where a new coach comes in and wins?
i think the stat was 5-0 until last week with ratten and north losing, but prob should of won? not sure

 

[Mags98]

could be that stat where a new coach comes in and wins?
i think the stat was 5-0 until last week with ratten and north losing, but prob should of won? not sure

yeah happens too often to just be a coincidence and no doubt that playing group love dimma and should put in a good performance in honour of him, but still id have to take port at that value

 

[kicksome]

yeah happens too often to just be a coincidence and no doubt that playing group love dimma and should put in a good performance in honour of him, but still id have to take port at that value

yeah i dont blame you at all, port are the better side. Although they will be without their skipper, so thats something else to consider. A fair few tricky games this weekend

 

[X_box_X]

Rosas grew up in NT, back @ TIO this weekend for Indigenous round.

2,3 @ 3.90,12.50 Lads, 4 @ 40 365

Not impossible, but I'd be shocked and disappointed if the Bulldogs allow a player like that to get off the leash:

The Bulldogs' form in rounds 1-2 has been well documented... And their game has been totally different since then:

Opponents to kick goals against Bulldogs since Rd 3.

Rd 3:
Gunston 3

Rd 4:
Bolton 3
Lynch 2

Rd 5:
Byrne Jones 2
Marshall 2

Rd 6:
Sturt 2
Frederick 2

Rd 7:
Breust 3
Newcombe 2

Rd 8:
Green 3
Hogan 2
Ward 2

Rd 9:
Owies 3
Curnow 2

Rd 10:
Rachele 2

After Jeffrey kicked five against the Bulldogs last year, they'll be a lot more wary of allowing another small to get off the chain in this fixture.

 

[kicksome]

since both played well last week, i'll have a nibble at these 2 goal kickers at odds. But if you follow please bear in mind that they both can have horrible days in front of the big sticks.

Max king

12

Max King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

1star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.6

3star

G

1.4

5star

3+ $2.25
4+ $4.50
5+ $9.50

mitchel lewis
2+ $2.25
3+ $4.50
4+ $13

b365

 

[Johanpetro]

Geez the odds on Cadman goals are always ridiculous. $150 for 4+ for a bloke who plays solely forward. Will kick a bag one day

 

[kicksome]

Geez the odds on Cadman goals are always ridiculous. $150 for 4+ for a bloke who plays solely forward. Will kick a bag one day

He's going to need about 3 of them to fall in his lap. But every dog has his day I guess

 

[HTPunter]

Not impossible, but I'd be shocked and disappointed if the Bulldogs allow a player like that to get off the leash:

The Bulldogs' form in rounds 1-2 has been well documented... And their game has been totally different since then:

Opponents to kick goals against Bulldogs since Rd 3.

Rd 3:
Gunston 3

Rd 4:
Bolton 3
Lynch 2

Rd 5:
Byrne Jones 2
Marshall 2

Rd 6:
Sturt 2
Frederick 2

Rd 7:
Breust 3
Newcombe 2

Rd 8:
Green 3
Hogan 2
Ward 2

Rd 9:
Owies 3
Curnow 2

Rd 10:
Rachele 2

After Jeffrey kicked five against the Bulldogs last year, they'll be a lot more wary of allowing another small to get off the chain in this fixture.

Jeffrey is a tall though

 

[X_box_X]

Jeffrey is a tall though

Wowweeee, just noticed he has eaten a few of Jack's beans.

 

[jikost]

Could do his hammy in the first 5 minutes, but I'll take the gamble on Fyfe who appears likely to play the full 4 quarters this week. Looks like they've given up on the pre-season forward role that was forecast for him and will play him through the midfield where he belongs. Had 17 disposals from 53% TOG last week.

20+ @ $2.60 sb

'Care free' Jackson ready for Narrm battle

Luke Jackson will be hoping he can continue his recent hot form when he takes on his former side Narrm on Saturday

www.fremantlefc.com.au

Walyalup veteran Nat Fyfe has been given the green light to play out the entire match against Narrm after making a strong recovery from a foot injury.

Fyfe made late cameos as the sub in wins over the Hawks and Swans, and he played almost three quarters in last week's triumph over the Cats long before being subbed out.

"We don't feel like we need to sub him out this week," Longmuir said.

The 31-year-old spent long stints in the midfield last week, and he's expected to play a similar role against the Demons.

"We want him where he can help the team. Treacy and Amiss have shown we can use Fyfe in the midfield more," Longmuir added.

 

[X_box_X]

Could do his hammy in the first 5 minutes, but I'll take the gamble on Fyfe who appears likely to play the full 4 quarters this week. Looks like they've given up on the pre-season forward role that was forecast for him and will play him through the midfield where he belongs. Had 17 disposals from 53% TOG last week.

20+ @ $2.60 sb

'Care free' Jackson ready for Narrm battle

Luke Jackson will be hoping he can continue his recent hot form when he takes on his former side Narrm on Saturday

www.fremantlefc.com.au

I thought you had lost your mind until I checked to see he did in fact have 17 last week.

When I heard on the radio broadcast that he had been subbed out during the 3rd qtr, I felt a sense of relief that I didn't get on him for 15+ disposals. I just assumed I'd dodged a bullet. I'd have honestly thought he got 10 at most.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

Alright men, the return of the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK is upon us.
The LOCK is famously up 136.7 units for the season so far after a momentous and life changing 127 unit victory in its last edition.

This week, it is wise practice to once again return to the trough that has fed us Degenerate pigs so well, namely, betting against this injury decimated Geelong side.

I don’t care how many Tomahawks or Jezzas(1 goal in past 2 weeks) you have, if your midfield involves Mark Blicavs

46

Mark Blicavs

Age

33

Ht

198cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

M/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.7

4star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.9

3star

CL

0.1

2star

D

8.6

3star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

CL

2.0

4star

leading a bunch of VFL spuds, then your going to struggle big time. Especially against a very capable Giants midfield and side that has won its past 2 games in Geelong. This last stat can’t be overstated as so often their is a mental/intimidation element that works against travelling sides at Kardinia park. The Giants will take great confidence into this game.

The only thing one could say might count against the Giants in this game would be there defensive outs(Taylor, Himmelberg). However, after simulating this game in my mind, it became clear to me that this was inconsequential due to the inability of the third string Geelong midfield to propel the ball forward in any sort of appropriate direction or repeat fashion to take advantage. These inconsequential(compared to Cats) outs are probably a key factor in the amazing odds we’ve been given here as well.

Anyway, for the reasons explained above, GWS H2H@$7.50 is the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
5 Units

 

[dontlimitme]

Alright men, the return of the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK is upon us.
The LOCK is famously up 136.7 units for the season so far after a momentous and life changing 127 unit victory in its last edition.

This week, it is wise practice to once again return to the trough that has fed us Degenerate pigs so well, namely, betting against this injury decimated Geelong side.

I don’t care how many Tomahawks or Jezzas(1 goal in past 2 weeks) you have, if your midfield involves Mark Blicavs leading a bunch of VFL spuds, then your going to struggle big time. Especially against a very capable Giants midfield and side that has won its past 2 games in Geelong. This last stat can’t be overstated as so often their is a mental/intimidation element that works against travelling sides at Kardinia park. The Giants will take great confidence into this game.

The only thing one could say might count against the Giants in this game would be there defensive outs(Taylor, Himmelberg). However, after simulating this game in my mind, it became clear to me that this was inconsequential due to the inability of the third string Geelong midfield to propel the ball forward in any sort of appropriate direction or repeat fashion to take advantage. These inconsequential(compared to Cats) outs are probably a key factor in the amazing odds we’ve been given here as well.

Anyway, for the reasons explained above, GWS H2H@$7.50 is the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
5 Units

 

[bulletride]

Alright men, the return of the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK is upon us.
The LOCK is famously up 136.7 units for the season so far after a momentous and life changing 127 unit victory in its last edition.

This week, it is wise practice to once again return to the trough that has fed us Degenerate pigs so well, namely, betting against this injury decimated Geelong side.

I don’t care how many Tomahawks or Jezzas(1 goal in past 2 weeks) you have, if your midfield involves Mark Blicavs leading a bunch of VFL spuds, then your going to struggle big time. Especially against a very capable Giants midfield and side that has won its past 2 games in Geelong. This last stat can’t be overstated as so often their is a mental/intimidation element that works against travelling sides at Kardinia park. The Giants will take great confidence into this game.

The only thing one could say might count against the Giants in this game would be there defensive outs(Taylor, Himmelberg). However, after simulating this game in my mind, it became clear to me that this was inconsequential due to the inability of the third string Geelong midfield to propel the ball forward in any sort of appropriate direction or repeat fashion to take advantage. These inconsequential(compared to Cats) outs are probably a key factor in the amazing odds we’ve been given here as well.

Anyway, for the reasons explained above, GWS H2H@$7.50 is the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
5 Units

Have to tail the great man, throwing it in with Greene 4+ too @ $25.28 Lads boosted. Kicked 4 in each of those wins down there and it's his 200th so he'll be up and about.

 

[Mags98]

O'meara 80+ fantasy points 1.64 on lads, has cleared that the last 5

 

[LukeParkerno1]

surely this is the week johnson finally kicks a bag

Collingwood games annoy me as they share goals around. Someone like Hill has a bit of the Papley's about him might be a better chance. Pies more likely to all kick 2-3 than someone going Curnow style.