AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[Fitzey]

Oliver/Steele/Bont trifecta paying $91

I had Oliver 34, Steele and Bont 32, Wines and Parish 28.

 

[BigInsideMid]

What did Oliver open up at to be leading after Round 10? I got caught napping and got him at $1.80

 

[invisible_]

What did Oliver open up at to be leading after Round 10? I got caught napping and got him at $1.80

opened at $1.80

 

[dontlimitme]

opened at $1.80

and then was crunched into 1.80

 

[BigInsideMid]

and then was crunched into 1.80

I think that's one the biggest locks in the market so far. Should be $1.20-1.30

 

[5 Bucks]

This game is one of the reviewed games I have for this season..............

What else have you got on the list? I'll give them a watch and we can compare notes

 

[TheRednWhite]

Loaded up on Tex leader after round 5
@3.75 sb

he should have 8 votes at that stage

if he gets 7 then he might tie with Bont or Oliver but that’s worst case scenario

 

[Geeves Train]

Anyone else reckon Dusty is overs at $3.00 top 20 on tab? I’ve got him on 15 which gives him top 20 outright. Sportsbet are $2.25. I reckon he’s legit 50-50.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Anyone else reckon Dusty is overs at $3.00 top 20 on tab? I’ve got him on 15 which gives him top 20 outright. Sportsbet are $2.25. I reckon he’s legit 50-50.

That would be amazing for some of my early season Multis, which I have already conceded as losses due to Dusty top 20 leg. Can’t see how he gets enough votes though

 

[Geeves Train]

He’s minimum 14 imo and think his polling history leads him to 15 and getting a spot without ties. Thought he’d miss for last half of the season but those 21-30 not moving much last few games will be a significant help!! He’s no moral, just rekon $3.00 is overs!!

 

[NYRB]

This game is one of the reviewed games I have for this season..............

had the betting market along the lines of:

To Poll 3 votes from the game:

Aliir Aliir $2.85
Georgiades $3.33
Boak $3.44
Amon $4.76
Wines $14.25
Walsh $33
Charlie Dixon $100
Cripps $100

but my thinking along the time was pretty much how you saw the game

after reviewing that a 2nd time, I like Boak as BOG. But anyone of potentially 5-6 players realistically could take BOG and the 3 votes here.

At Half Time, I thought the votes were pretty easy to identify- 3 Robbie Gray 2 Walsh 1 Wines. Boak dished off a goal assist from 10 metres out in the 2nd half which I feel swing the votes to him along with his 17 contested possessions.

Readjusted odds for the '3 Vote Winner' for Carlton v Port Adelaide Round 5:

Boak $3.19
Walsh $4.16
Wines $4.21
Aliir $4.30
Amon $7.60
Georgiades $28.50
Byrne Jones $40
Charlie Dixon $50
Todd Marshall $100


Thats a tough game to predict personally...........i dont agree with the Betfair review giving Amon highest weight of 2.5 votes there. (They are usually pretty good with their votes)

Think of this game as choosing 5 players into 3 spots for votes. Would have a nibble at a trifecta of 59/1 if I saw Boak-Walsh-Wines or Boak-Allir-Walsh each. Do feel that Georgiades is definitely ruled out for votes, considering Gray also kicked 3. Aliir is ruled out for me because Weitering played an equivalent game to his- if not slightly better. And Amon doesnt have a polling history of note and I don't think his game was any better than the other 3 mids with 24 uncontested possessions and only 4 contested.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Loaded up on Tex leader after round 5
@3.75 sb

he should have 8 votes at that stage

if he gets 7 then he might tie with Bont or Oliver but that’s worst case scenario

Just adding my different opinion.

 

[TheRednWhite]

View attachment 1222117
Just adding my different opinion.

Jesus are you sure that is after 5 rounds? Do you have Petracca and Oliver polling in every game up to round 5? 10 votes each is huge

 

[NYRB]

View attachment 1222117
Just adding my different opinion.

would love that leaderboard come Brownlow night

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Jesus are you sure that is after 5 rounds? Do you have Petracca and Oliver polling in every game up to round 5? 10 votes each is huge

Look closer, Oliver Petracca Gawn 26 out of a possible 30. It is what it is.

RD1 - Raffle Oliver Petracca Lever May (3. Oliver, 2. Petracca 1. Lever)
RD2 - Steele might get 1 vote (3. Oliver, 2. Petracca 1. Gresham)
RD3 - 3. Gawn 2. Petracca 1. Greene
RD4 - Viney and Selwood maybe 1 (3. Petracca 2. Oliver 1. Langdon)
RD5 - 3. Gawn 2. Oliver 1. Petracca

I wouldn't want to rely on Walker to get 2+ votes vs Sydney, 6 goals in a comfortable loss...gets the 1 from me. 3. Campbell 2. Heeney 1. Walker
With that said my notes for that game do state that although I gave Heeney 2, he could easily not poll and walker may get the 2.

 

[RedCarpetFev]

I've taken a nibble at Gawn $10 and Mundy $12 for leader after 5 rounds.



I had Gawn BOG in rounds 3 and 5. Picking up minor votes in round 2 and 4 as well. Barely gets a vote again in my count after this hot start. Likewise with Mundy have him BOG in rounds 4 and 5, whilst picking up 2 in round 2. Only two with Oliver a chance to knock off Walker.

 

[RedCarpetFev]

Probably no bet here, think SB have this one right. Couldn't trust McCluggage, Bont may be the one to roll the dice on if he picks up a few votes where we don't expect it.

 

[BigInsideMid]

I'll put my 2 cents worth in for the Round 5 market.

Player	Club	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Total
C.Oliver	Melbourne	2​	3​		2​	1.5​	8.5
D.Martin	Richmond	3​	3​			2.5​	8.5
C.Petracca	Melbourne	2​	1.5​		3​	1.5​	8
T.Walker	Adelaide	3​	1.5​	3​			7.5

I'm not sold on Tex polling the 3 in R2.

 

[FootyStar#1]

View attachment 1222233

Probably no bet here, think SB have this one right. Couldn't trust McCluggage, Bont may be the one to roll the dice on if he picks up a few votes where we don't expect it.

Its a market that I’m not going to touch because I think it could go a variety of ways and tie is extremely likely too.

The player I’m most interested in is Boak. His first 5 games are critical to the rest of the count. He could potentially poll 9 votes or as low as 5.

 

[pendlebury_10]

I've taken a nibble at Gawn $10 and Mundy $12 for leader after 5 rounds.

View attachment 1222226

I had Gawn BOG in rounds 3 and 5. Picking up minor votes in round 2 and 4 as well. Barely gets a vote again in my count after this hot start. Likewise with Mundy have him BOG in rounds 4 and 5, whilst picking up 2 in round 2. Only two with Oliver a chance to knock off Walker.

Petracca on less than 5 while others have him on 8 and 10.

 

[Big Bryza]

I meant Brouch most team votes without laird. Only threat is Tex and maybe Seedsman
Edit: without steele*

Am I drunk?!

 

[Tigers04]

Anyone else thing Martin is a good chance to be leading or tied at the end of round 5? Minimum 8 votes with a strong possibility of being on 9. At $7 on SB it’s a decent price especially considering they have Tex at $3.75 who arguably will be on 8-9.

 

[squeaky1000]

Anyone else thing Martin is a good chance to be leading or tied at the end of round 5? Minimum 8 votes with a strong possibility of being on 9. At $7 on SB it’s a decent price especially considering they have Tex at $3.75 who arguably will be on 8-9.

Yep, think he should be around 8 votes and surprised he’s drifted out to $7. Tough one to call though with obviously Tex and also Petracca and Oliver all likely to be in the mix as well

 

[RedCarpetFev]

Petracca on less than 5 while others have him on 8 and 10.

Likely due to me polling Gawn in these games, I didn't think Petracca stood out early enough - don't have him polling at all in the first three weeks.

 

[RedCarpetFev]

Anyone else thing Martin is a good chance to be leading or tied at the end of round 5? Minimum 8 votes with a strong possibility of being on 9. At $7 on SB it’s a decent price especially considering they have Tex at $3.75 who arguably will be on 8-9.

I didn't think Martin was particularly impressive in round 5, wouldn't be surprised if he missed out here all together on votes. Clear BOG's in rounds 1 and 2 though. Falls short for mine.