rdhopkins2
Carpe Diem
Bombers if ASADA smash them.
If not, Melbourne.
If not, Melbourne.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
2015 Wooden Spoon Predictions
- Thread starter King Cold
- Start date
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I agree. Can't see Carlton getting anywhere near the spoon. They'll have a fit Kreuzer and Daisy Thomas from all reports. They added pace with their recruiting. And Malthouse can mould a team. Could sneak into the eight this year if injuries are kind to them.
- Dec 7, 2014
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- #253
There are people in this thread that seriously think Carlton are wooden spoon favorites...
Pretty much agree with all that. Would be funny if they finished bottom, but I just don't see it happening and I think they are probably more chance of playing finals than coming last. Don't see them going anywhere really meaningful for the next few years unless they land a seriously big FA or trade fish or three in the next couple of offseasons though.
Just a bit more on this, as well as having finished off the season with a 28 possie, 8 mark game in the last round (in just 66% game time), here is what the 2015 AFL prospectus apparently says about Fisher:
"Only played 7 games, but he averaged the second most Champion Data ranking points per game of any key defender in that time.
He won the second-most intercept possessions per game of any player in the league and launched the third-most scores per game of any key defender.
His kick rating was the highest of any key defender and the Saints retained possession from 82% of his disposals - ranked 1 at the club."
Not bad for someone who had missed almost a season and a half of senior footy prior to that 7 game stretch!
So I'd say that the stats also suggest he still well and truly has it and I expect he'll be quite a lot fitter this year if he has a good finish to his preseason and stays fit throughout the year. Chances are he is still close to the best in the league at the intercepting/rebounding role and he's left a big hole in our backline over the past couple of seasons when he's been missing.
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How many 32 year olds come back fitter and better than before a serious lay off with injury... Its pretty rare and I wouldn't want to be putting my hopes on that.
- Banned
- #257
Fisher is basically a new recruit and would have been chased as a FA by all teams if not for injury.
Forward Press
Hall of Famer
Darren Glass averaged very low amounts of CD points and barely had any intercept possessions or score launches, but if you were to offer either Glass or Fisher at their respective peaks to all 18 clubs, I suspect all would take Darren Glass.
CD takes into account rebound 50s, spoils, winning one-on-ones etc but it doesn't fully account for picking the right option, being in the right area and knowing when to zone off your man. Don't use it as the be all and end all.
Strapping Young Lad
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- #260
It's not that absurd.There are people in this thread that seriously think Carlton are wooden spoon favorites...
A few injuries and Carlton will be battling to stay ahead of GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda, with depth being a concern.
- Banned
- #261
Different roles completely .
rdhopkins2
Carpe Diem
AFL would pull the rug from under your feet. The other clubs would scream blue murder.
#NowYouSeeItNowYouDont
Forward Press
Hall of Famer
Using CD points for a key defender is a hazardous exercise. Is Sam Fisher not a key defender?
Not so sure about that, nor what Darren Glass has to do with anything, especially since they've generally played very different roles throughout their careers, with Glass more at FB and Fisher generally at either CHB or the HBF. It would depend entirely on which role the respective teams wanted fulfilled.
Glass for instance has never had more than 300 possessions in a season and has only once taken more than 100 marks, whereas Fisher, prior to getting his recent injury interruptions, had 6 seasons in a row where he had over 400 possessions (including 3 in a row between 514 and 576) and in those 6 seasons had not only more than 100 marks in all of those seasons, but over 150 in each of them, including 4 in a row between 184 and 228 marks. He has the 8th highest marks per game average of anyone who has played the game since records started being taken and I imagine would be in the top few for intercept marks. His kicking efficiency is also exceptional, hence being ranked so highly for retaining possessions in those games he played last season.
Fisher at his peak was killing it in big games and in particular finals footy (best game being the 2nd highest ever number of possessions in a final- 42, to go with 16 marks (I dare say many would have been intercept) and it was not by accident that he won two of the 4 B&F's in the years we played finals under Ross Lyon, or that our B&F's were basically shared between himself, Nick Riewoldt and Lenny Hayes for a number of years- while the likes of Nick Dal Santo, Brendon Goddard and Leigh Montagna didn't win one between them. He has been exceptional for us and I would be shocked if he wasn't in the best 22 in the 120 or so year history of our club.
I'm not, hence mentioning the other stats they brought up, but have you even seen Fisher play football, those things you brought up there are the exact sort of things that he has generally excelled at and which have made him as good as he has been throughout his career. If anyone knows about all that sort of stuff and could write a book on it, it's Fisher, it's his bread and butter!
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- Banned
- #265
Plays both roles depending on circumstances. I'd take Fisher at his best over Glass.
Hah, Essendon getting pick 1 if their team is obliterated and charged as drug cheats?
Um, no. You'll get more draft sanctions and be locked out of the first round for a few years. You'll be lucky to get a few priority picks at the end of the first round in a few years.
Um, no. You'll get more draft sanctions and be locked out of the first round for a few years. You'll be lucky to get a few priority picks at the end of the first round in a few years.
gillo94
Norm Smith Medallist
Add Bulldogs there!
Blues have grown depth and turned over more than half the list over last 2 years! Depth case might be valid 2 years ago but not now where reserves and rookies from years back starting to knock on the seniors door
While Saints, Dogs, Demons, GWS are still in the AFL, I see us finishing ahead of them unless we get hit hard with injuries but have to think positive
Periphery
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Forward Press
Hall of Famer
I've seen plenty of Sam Fisher (was a DT staple for my team for a few years), he gets plenty of ball, I'm not doubting it. I also don't doubt that at his best without injuries he's a gun player, so take my word for it when I say I've seen him play a lot. But I threw in Darren Glass because you lot were rabbiting on about Champion Data points to measure his worth as a key position defender when it's only a small part of their value. Like you pointed out, Darren Glass rarely got much of the ball and his CD points were shit (you never picked him in DT or Supercoach for instance) - but yet he still made All Australian and is widely regarded as one of the finest KPDs of the past decade. If you want an unbiased one - consider Simon Prestigiacomo who barely touched the ball yet was one of the first named for Collingwood. Why is that?
Periphery
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ARR was clearly just using those stats to show that Fisher probably hasn't reached the end of the line like was questioned. Nobody was acting like CD points are the only consideration in gauging a players performance, but believe it or not, stats can provide a guide to a players level of performance in certain roles.
For some reason you are ignoring the fact that Glass and Fisher are two different types of key defenders in the same way that N Riewoldt and Hawkins are different types of key forwards.
Lenny Hayes came back from missing a year with a knee reco and won our B&F the following year, at 32yo, just for starters and was still playing terrific footy for us last year, at 34yo and could have very easily gone on again this year, the way he was playing. I'm not saying that Sam will be better than he was when he was at his peak, not at all, but all the evidence suggests that he is still playing at an elite level, hence those stats I posted from the 2015 prospectus.
If you haven't read it already, I suggest you take a couple of minutes to read this article below from a month or two ago, which outlines his recent injury history, with his toe starting to be a problem around 2008 and just getting progressively more and more painful over the years until it got to ridiculous levels a couple of years ago and him starting to have surgeries on it. The first one actually made the issue worse, but then in the next one they cut a bit of his his toe off and fused the bones together so that he no longer has any movement in the joint at all, but also has no pain, for the first time in 6 years and that is where he sits now. Pain free and fully fit again, as he was at the end of last season, for probably the first time in years, hence a time trial PB the other week.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...ub-and-teammates/story-fni5f9q3-1227155815982
If he was the age he is but had played 300+ games and 15 years of senior AFL footy then there would probably be a lot more chance that he wouldn't be able to get back to playing good footy at his age, but he didn't get really serious about his footy until later than most and didn't play his first full season at AFL level until he was 23yo and doesn't even have 200 games up yet, so I think he could be reasonably fresh (for someone his age at AFL level), especially since he hasn't played much in the past 2 years.
Time will tell though.
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Forward Press
Hall of Famer
I don't think Sam Fisher is at the end of the line either. But ARR was the one that brought in CD points to reflect his view that he isn't. That's all his post was about (post number 255, that is).
Didn't ignore it, just pointed out that Champion Data points for key defenders are of limited use. It has been reflected consistently in my posts.
gillo94
Norm Smith Medallist
So none of those teams will ever finish above Carlton?
Sorry, should of said in season 2015, yes teams do go through cycles being at top & bottom so yes eventually ladder positions over the years will varie
So when does Carltons cycle go top?
pure demon
Team Captain
- Dec 10, 2014
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Haha this is funny! The dees have turned over half the list in two also, the idea however is to get rid of your CRAP players first.
Youre going to provide plenty of midweek entertainment this year gillo.
Cripps, buckley, menzel only young players with promise weve seen so far
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