Draft Review 2014 - Redo the 2014 AFL Draft

[vozzon]

McCartin over petracca is almost as bad as Billings over Bont. St kilda could have had two game changing mids.

Instead they have a kpf who in his third season can't get on the park and is still yet to kick more than two goals in a game and a forward flanker who shirks contact

Looking at it now it seems saints stuffed that one up, but at the time they had no Key Forward on the list so they made a tough decision to get him. Melbourne would have won in that draft either way with picks 2 and 3. Like the 2004 draft, nailing a good draft when you have multiple early picks sets up your list. Sometimes it just falls your way.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Na you were also wrong about everything else you said. Hope this helps.

There was plenty wrong with that post, but I didn't feel like anyone that signs off with "Cheers, you've been derailed" was worthy of being responded to. Ignorance and arrogance are indeed a deadly combination!

Steele is a good kick.

Yeah, prior to seeing him more this year and live I was a bit concerned that his kicking might not have been much chop, after he missed a couple of relatively easy kicks against us last year, but I've been very pleasantly surprised with the quality of most of his kicking so far with us, including a couple of effortless looking set shot goals from about 50m out in the JLT. He's got a good 55m on him and I really liked the look of his technique/ball-drop etc on a couple of his kicks on the weekend as well. They also had their 2016 stats in the Record at the game and I note he went at a very healthy 66.7% kicking efficiency last year, which was 4/5% above the AFL average for the positions he was playing (forward/midfield).

Some reckon that kicking efficiency is a useless stat, but I thought they got pretty much everyone (out of the 30 or so they listed) pretty much right for us and within about 2-3% of where I would have thought they should be- as you would expect, given that they evaluate every single kick in every game and apply the same criteria to them.

It's ironic that Deerailed was writing off so many in our midfield by saying they "can't kick", when the numbers actually show that of the 9 they had listed as "midfielders" for us, only 1 (Acres- who I agree is a below average kick), went at less than the AFL average of 61.5% for those in that category, going at 60.6%. Armitage, who can miss targets at times but generally hits them well, who he also said "can't kick", went at a very good 65.4%, while his own team, on the other hand, had Tyson below the AFL average, at 60.4%, Jones, at 58.7%, renowned bad kick Viney, at 54.7%, Angus Brayshaw at 53% and then Christian Petracca at...drumroll please....50.7%! (Which is in line with his kicking reputation prior to his draft- he only hits a target with 1 in 2 kicks, which is so bad it's 7% below the average for those who play in the ruck- who have the lowest average kicking efficiency of anyone on the ground).

Yet Melbourne are meant to have this amazing midfield (which I agree is very good and getting better) and Sydney- who have been regarded as having one of, if the best midfield in recent years- also had some very ordinary kicks in it (especially Kennedy, Mitchell when he was there, for starters). So obviously having one or more who are not a great or consistent kick isn't necessarily going to prevent you from having a really good midfield going forward- not that we have a midfield full of those who "can't kick" anyway, as he was trying to imply.

Was also ironic that he wrote Gresham's midfield prospects off for being "tiny" when he's only 1cm shorter than Viney! He is also 1cm taller than Lachie Neale (who last year broke the record for disposals in a H&A season since they started keeping stats), 2cm taller than $700K PA Dion Prestia, 3cm taller than Dayne Zorko, 10cm taller than Caleb Daniel and only 1cm shorter than Luke Dahlhaus and Kieren Jack. He may be so good forward that we'll leave him there semi-permanently, but if we don't he'll be breaking ankles with his sidestep in the midfield for hopefully 12+ years.

You could argue St.Kilda would have benefited more by recruiting a key-forward (McCartin) over a gun goalscoring mid (Petracca) in the 2014 draft, but looking at last weekend's game and how badly they got smashed through the middle, I highly doubt that.

A one game sample size hey? I'm surprised we won any games last year at all if it's that bad, let alone games against teams like WB, Geelong (when they were on top) and were mighty stiff to lose to Hawthorn in Launceston (where they've won 16 in a row) as well, etc.

Anyway, as has been stated previously, it was one draft pick and you don't fill every gap you have on a bottom-of-the-ladder list with one draft pick, no matter how high it is and we've already clearly stated that our midfield in particular is still very much a work in progress, just as 17-game Paddy is. Three of our very best midfield prospects have played just 63 games between them!

How about we reassess it further after a few more games, perhaps after we've played some teams who aren't getting a huge armchair ride from 20+ hitouts to advantage, rather than judging it on a game where most of them were well below their best, or even their average? Then perhaps we can reassess it again after the FA, trade and draft period, when we see what we got out of a couple of mil in cap space and two potentially top 10 or 12 draft picks?

 

[PaddysurDaddy]

Found this on saintsational (saints forum)

'wasting a bit of time and started having a look at Josh j kennedy (eagles) career. For his first two seasons he averaged something .6 and .5 goals a game respectively, then 1, then 1.9 for two years, and it basically kept going that way, slow incremental improvements until last year with 3.6 gpg.

To compare that to paddy, in his first year he played 6 games and kicked 3 goals (.5 per game), he averaged 9.3 touches and 4.3 marks (.8 contested)

In his second year however he played 11 games, kicked 14 goals (1.3 per game - not to mention reduced game time due to injuries). He still went for 4.4 marks a game, but his contested marks went from .8 to 1.5. A really good sign, in a way, is that his average touches actually went down from 9.3 to 7 per game (no doubt effected by injury), but his goal average tripled.

So even with his injury effected second season (missed probably 2 games of time on ground there abouts due to injury) he has still managed to improve consistently in the areas we need him to, which is goals per game and contested marks per game. So far, by stats alone he has the best full forward in the afl covered, and by a fair margin.

We just have to give the big lad some time, he's definitely heading in the right direction'

Obviously posted in a saints forum with rose coloured glasses, if paddy can get to Kennedy levels that will be a big win IMHO, but I think he's more than capable.

 

[La Dispute]

Made sense at the time. Bruce and Membrey hadn't come on yet and Riewoldt was getting on, but Petracca was far and away the best player in the draft and maybe aside from Heeney is the most likely to be a star.

 

[Farm Boy]

McCartin, Brayshaw or Petracca haven't exactly done a lot. Injury and concussion has prevented them showing their wears. Petracca looks special at times.

 

[La Dispute]

McCartin, Brayshaw or Petracca haven't exactly done a lot. Injury and concussion has prevented them showing their wears. Petracca looks special at times.

Petracca's only played a year - how much more could he do?

 

[Trav 20]

Kicking and disposal efficiency is an overrated stat. Frawley, an ordinary to horrible kick, is regularly in the top 15-30 in the competition for DE%. Especially for mids who are often throwing the ball on their foot from a stoppage, or those that have a tendency to take risky options, which is more a decision making issue or being bold. Plenty of young players improve their kicking as they become more accustomed to the tempo of AFL footy, so judging 2, 3 or even year 4 players on KE is lazy, imo.

Best to use your eyes.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Petracca looks very good and Saints would be happy to have him

But parts of this thread reads as if his first season was Judd like

 

[Since 2001]

I think McCartin at the time was the right pick, but now looking back its a terrible decision.
Carlisle: Can play both fwd and back is a great swingman and good player.
Riewoldt: Gun, who knows when he will call it quits.
Brown: Yes he is a key back but with Goddard it can allow Carlisle to go fwd.
Goddard: Looks to have good potential and can team up with brown to allow Carlisle fwd.
Bruce: Nothing needs to be said, good fwd.
Membrey: Good get from the swankies like him.

have all these players ahead of paddy. Maybe consider trading him and getting a pick or player for him and cut loses? especially with all the head knocks aswell

 

[tubthumper]

I think McCartin at the time was the right pick, but now looking back its a terrible decision.
Carlisle: Can play both fwd and back is a great swingman and good player.
Riewoldt: Gun, who knows when he will call it quits.
Brown: Yes he is a key back but with Goddard it can allow Carlisle to go fwd.
Goddard: Looks to have good potential and can team up with brown to allow Carlisle fwd.
Bruce: Nothing needs to be said, good fwd.
Membrey: Good get from the swankies like him.

have all these players ahead of paddy. Maybe consider trading him and getting a pick or player for him and cut loses? especially with all the head knocks aswell

Carlisle was always recruited to be a KPD and I dare say thats where he'll remain.
As much chance of him playing forward as Bruce returning to the backline.
Brown being the stop-gap for Goddard who has potential, but has played all of half a senior game before the unfortunate achilles injury.

Interesting to see in recent times, Paddy being given license to roam and push up the ground. Perhaps being groomed for life after Riewoldt....

 

[PaddysurDaddy]

I think McCartin at the time was the right pick, but now looking back its a terrible decision.
Carlisle: Can play both fwd and back is a great swingman and good player.
Riewoldt: Gun, who knows when he will call it quits.
Brown: Yes he is a key back but with Goddard it can allow Carlisle to go fwd.
Goddard: Looks to have good potential and can team up with brown to allow Carlisle fwd.
Bruce: Nothing needs to be said, good fwd.
Membrey: Good get from the swankies like him.

have all these players ahead of paddy. Maybe consider trading him and getting a pick or player for him and cut loses? especially with all the head knocks aswell

lol

 

[aussierulesrules]

Kicking and disposal efficiency is an overrated stat. Frawley, an ordinary to horrible kick, is regularly in the top 15-30 in the competition for DE%. Especially for mids who are often throwing the ball on their foot from a stoppage, or those that have a tendency to take risky options, which is more a decision making issue or being bold. Plenty of young players improve their kicking as they become more accustomed to the tempo of AFL footy, so judging 2, 3 or even year 4 players on KE is lazy, imo.

Best to use your eyes.

From just a couple of weeks ago:

Petracca is the best worst kick I've seen.
He can shank them horribly and he can do the most incredible 50 metre bullets you'll ever see.

Sounds like someone who is very inconsistent to me, hence going at 50% kicking efficiency last year, scoring very, very badly in the kicking and goalkicking tests at his combine (bottom 10% in the kicking test and bottom 4% in the goalkicking) and having a rep in the juniors for being a poor kick (something that was spoken about plenty on our board prior to his draft, as we debated who we thought we should get). Butchering of kicks is also something I have seen with my own eyes, along with his crackingly good kicks. There is perhaps not much in between.

His consistency may well improve of course, but until it does, it isn't, so that's what we have to go on and it's not like it's only gone down since he joined the AFL and had to adjust to the intensity- it was apparently like this in the juniors against his peers there as well.

Kicking and disposal efficiency is an overrated stat. Frawley, an ordinary to horrible kick, is regularly in the top 15-30 in the competition for DE%. Especially for mids who are often throwing the ball on their foot from a stoppage, or those that have a tendency to take risky options, which is more a decision making issue or being bold.

Pretty much everyone is aware of all that though, hence not taking much notice of someone like Frawley going at 80%, but taking notice of someone who played mostly forward and midfield going at just 50% (which is a whopping 10% below the AFL average for the midfield and 11% lower for the forwards- which means that there are heaps of others playing midfield for instance who likewise are just throwing it on the boot out of a stoppage, who are dragging the overall average down to 60%. If you're playing on the outside you'd probably want to be going at at least 63/64% and if you're playing on the inside (and closer to 50/50 CPs to UPs) you'd probably want to be going at 56% KE at the very least).

Stats are a much better guide if you look a bit more closely at them and don't just dismiss them off hand because of a few anomalies. You take those anomalies into account- like giving those who are rushing kicks out of packs or taking risky kicks a bit of leeway, but only so much.

I would think that efficiency is pretty important, because it doesn't matter how good someone's kicking looks if they are missing their target with them on a regular basis.

Not saying for a second that Petracca isn't bloody good, just arguing the points put before me.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

OP: "you were a mistake" LAWL!

Seriously though. Some of us on BigFooty didn't come down in the last shower. This isn't our first rodeo. We know it takes time for a KPP to develop. They cruise along for a while, and the suddenly! Gun! Every team in the competition is throwing a first round draft pick and a million dollars at them.

Just you take it easy, OP. Just worry about yourself, old mate, don't worry about what Patrick is up to.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

With top 3 picks you should always take the best available talent. Picking a kid based on your teams needs is just plain wrong, you trade for mature players to fill a gap in your team, not using a top 3 pick. The main reason is that it will most likely take a kid 3 to 4 seasons to get to their best, but a lot can happen in 3 years and there's no certainty that what you think is a deficiency will be the same in the future.

In this case I think you could make a strong argument that either McCartin or Petracca would have been good to be the #1 pick with Brayshaw trailing the two. I know at the time I was expecting to get McCartin and I was pretty happy with that. Right now Petracca looks like he's the better pick but as I said just above, a lot can happen in 3 years. Give the kid time, he'll come good

 

[Trav 20]

From just a couple of weeks ago:



Sounds like someone who is very inconsistent to me, hence going at 50% kicking efficiency last year, scoring very, very badly in the kicking and goalkicking tests at his combine (bottom 10% in the kicking test and bottom 4% in the goalkicking) and having a rep in the juniors for being a poor kick (something that was spoken about plenty on our board prior to his draft, as we debated who we thought we should get). Butchering of kicks is also something I have seen with my own eyes, along with his crackingly good kicks. There is perhaps not much in between.

His consistency may well improve of course, but until it does, it isn't, so that's what we have to go on and it's not like it's only gone down since he joined the AFL and had to adjust to the intensity- it was apparently like this in the juniors against his peers there as well.

Pretty much everyone is aware of all that though, hence not taking much notice of someone like Frawley going at 80%, but taking notice of someone who played mostly forward and midfield going at just 50% (which is a whopping 10% below the AFL average for the midfield and 11% lower for the forwards- which means that there are heaps of others playing midfield for instance who likewise are just throwing it on the boot out of a stoppage, who are dragging the overall average down to 60%. If you're playing on the outside you'd probably want to be going at at least 63/64% and if you're playing on the inside (and closer to 50/50 CPs to UPs) you'd probably want to be going at 56% KE at the very least).

Stats are a much better guide if you look a bit more closely at them and don't just dismiss them off hand because of a few anomalies. You take those anomalies into account- like giving those who are rushing kicks out of packs or taking risky kicks a bit of leeway, but only so much.

I would think that efficiency is pretty important, because it doesn't matter how good someone's kicking looks if they are missing their target with them on a regular basis.

Not saying for a second that Petracca isn't bloody good, just arguing the points put before me.

I prefer to use my eyes. Petracca's kicking has been better in 2017 and his goal-kicking incredible. I don't think he's missed a goal throughout the JLT and round 1. I'm not sure of his stats but it must be close to 10 straight.

When I use footy stats DE or KE is one I never check when assessing a game or individual. Each to their own.

 

[Ian Dunross]

I think McCartin at the time was the right pick, but now looking back its a terrible decision.
Carlisle: Can play both fwd and back is a great swingman and good player.
Riewoldt: Gun, who knows when he will call it quits.
Brown: Yes he is a key back but with Goddard it can allow Carlisle to go fwd.
Goddard: Looks to have good potential and can team up with brown to allow Carlisle fwd.
Bruce: Nothing needs to be said, good fwd.
Membrey: Good get from the swankies like him.

have all these players ahead of paddy. Maybe consider trading him and getting a pick or player for him and cut loses? especially with all the head knocks aswell

Cut losses on a key position player after 2 seasons?

Think that's over reacting a bit

Also, Goddard remains unproven and Riewoldt and Brown are short term fixtures only

 

[lewdogs]

Some of what I've seen from Paddy suggests he could be a once in a generation forward. Massive hopes for him he needs a good run of injury though.

 

[Trav 20]

Some of what I've seen from Paddy suggests he could be a once in a generation forward. Massive hopes for him he needs a good run of injury though.

How long do you consider a generation in football terms ?

 

[lewdogs]

How long do you consider a generation in football terms ?

14.3 years

 

[Trav 20]

14.3 years

Thanks.

I thought you must have meant a week.

 

[NathanMX]

Did Carlton make a mistake picking Murphy, Kreuzer, Gibbs or Weitering pick 1?

Did Melbourne screw up picking Watts and Scully?

Did GWS screw up picking Patton and Whitfield?

Did Richmond and the Bulldogs both screw up picking Cotchin, Tambling and Griffen ahead of Lance Franklin?

Hindsight is indeed a powerful thing, but had you had the benefit of hindsight knowing Petracca would have to sit out an entire season at the start of his career through injury would you still have picked him number 1?

 

[dazzledavey36]

Some of what I've seen from Paddy suggests he could be a once in a generation forward.

Lol spare me..

 

[PaddysurDaddy]

Lol spare me..

Unfortunately, paddy spares no one..

 

[aussierulesrules]

OP: "you were a mistake" LAWL!

Seriously though. Some of us on BigFooty didn't come down in the last shower. This isn't our first rodeo. We know it takes time for a KPP to develop. They cruise along for a while, and the suddenly! Gun! Every team in the competition is throwing a first round draft pick and a million dollars at them.

Just you take it easy, OP. Just worry about yourself, old mate, don't worry about what Patrick is up to.

He's also completely wrong with his claim in the OP that '"all year Christian Petracca was rated as the clear no. 1 pick". What a bunch of baloney!

I've been following the drafts closely since the one we got Smith, Brown and Jones in- back in 1994- and I in particular follow them closely when our season is not much to get excited about (and about the only ray of light is that you're going to get a really high pick out of it), and as such I followed the upcoming draft crops very closely in 2013 and 2014, and for about the first half of that 2014 season Paddy was widely tipped to go no. 1.

Both he and CP were terrific in their underage year (Paddy for instance kicked 5 goals against Vic Metro in a game at the champs, which is no mean feat as an "underager" playing key forward), but CP was mostly playing forward, but weighed 95kg, and there were meant to be a lot of doubts about his endurance and that he would ever be any more than a "medium forward" (like say a Jack Darling/Tim Membrey/James Sicily type), and from what I saw, he was being tipped to go around pick 10 going into that season as a result.

Come the early parts of the 2014 season Paddy was going well and he was the one being talked up as the likely no. 1 pick, but as Petracca started to play more in the midfield and he started to go really well there, his stocks started to really rise from a draft perspective and he started to be in the conversation to go at pick 1.

By this stage Paddy was starting to get a few little nuisance injuries that were causing him to miss games and seemingly from this lack of continuity, his form dropped as a result and by the time of the champs, he looked pretty out of shape and wasn't in great form, while Petracca was flying, so that was when Christian probably took over the running as the one expected to go at no.1.

Had Paddy not gotten those 2 or 3 injuries that seemed to cause a drop in form and condition at a bad time (leading into the champs) and had maintained that 2013 and early 2014 form throughout the year, then I imagine it would have been widely considered a toss of the coin as to which one of them would go no.1.

Which is why we were happy to go with Paddy. Because we went not just by who was going better in the last half of the year going into the draft, but by who had showed for years that he had elite football ability and who suited our needs.

I believe we also felt that of the two, Paddy was best equipped to handle the immense scrutiny and hype and so-on that comes with being drafted at pick 1, due to his very relaxed, take-it-all-in-your-stride and humble "country" attitude. Our guys apparently just fell in love with his personality from the get-go and felt he would be a fantastic guy to bring into our footy club, and that he would also handle going at pick 1 really well and not let it go to his head or anything.

He also showed a great attitude and willingness to work by working his ass off on his own time in between the end of his season and the combine, where he reportedly dropped his skin folds down by about 20 in a matter of weeks, which really impressed us.

Whether we made the best call or not, time will tell. From a football ability POV I'm comfortable with the selection. Paddy's body is something I'm not so confident in, but that's mainly the concussion issue and it's not like we saw that coming, any more than Melbourne saw Bradshaw's coming.

 

[Kick Behinds]

Would you pick McCartin over Peter Wright?