2013 AFL Power Rankings

[emblurr]

I get it now, you're supposed to tip the non bolded team. DOH!

 

[Stromageddon]

So by how far will 16th ranked Port go down in the rankings after beating 4th?

 

[CakeButcher]

Provided Roby actually puts money on the lines he he lists... he won't be back. The bookies will take his legs, his computer/modem and his doormat.

 

[TD]

Provided Roby actually puts money on the lines he he lists... he won't be back. The bookies will take his legs, his computer/modem and his doormat.

Why would they do that? Kind of like killing the goose that lays the golden egg!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Never knew about this shit. Lord have I been missing out!

 

[Roby]

I don't think the umpiring was quite worth 110 points.

Wasn't far off.

 

[Roby]

A quick question for you Roby - given the last 2-3 seasons has seen teams very much focusing on the bigger picture, resting players week to week, and (more importantly for this question) in game, moving their premium players to the flanks/pockets to allow others exposure in the prime positions....is this taken into account in your rankings?

Well if a top player, key player or best 22 player is out than it's weighted in the predicted margin.

For example, at Hawthorn Mitchell has played most of the year at HB, with 5 minutes a quarter on ball. Yet when we have been put under pressure (Blues game), Mitchell has played his usual 70 minutes onball. Clearly this is still his primary (finals) role - but instead we have given a string of other players exposure.

In regards to Mitchell playing at HB, it could be taken into consideration but it would require stopping footage and watching every single player and taking into account their position. Don't have the ability (as in time) to do that at the moment. Even so, the way games are played in 2013, Mitchell HB isn't always HB.

Zones roll continually, or even when there is a forward press - all players are in one half of the ground, the starting positions can mean little. Players move with running mauls and zones constantly. I believe Mitchell still leads clearances for Hawthorn this year.

Obviously Mitchell at HB has been forced due to the injury of Suckling, and you would've seen him less at HB if he was still playing. Suckling won't be back this year but every game is still weighted with his absence.

I understand your ranking points is all based on predicting the most likely premiership.

Does your ranking look at who plays where on the field (and for how long), or only the team lists as named?

There are five categories and Mitchell is regarded as Category 5 player, the highest category of players. That carries the highest weighting. In a second criteria his regarded a key player but not position/key like Lake for example, which adds more weighting. His also regarded as a high statistical player for his position. At the moment his worth 7 points to the Hawks.

If multiple players from the same position, eg. two or more defenders are out, then an additional weighting for each position is compounded for each additional player. The rate increases the more players from each department are out, eg. defence, forward, ruck, midfield.

Is Hawthorn underperforming by your rankings as key players are playing out of position? Sub-optimal as an individual game, but potentially better for the season as a whole.

Hawthorn is underperforming due to their inability to win by the expected larger margins for a premiership potentialle (n.b. neologism) in such a good vein of form.

The Hawks in their last eight games have only beaten the betting lines on two occasions, the single worst in the AFL. Two weeks ago in accordance to the umpiring weighting, they should've lost to Carlton. They are just not playing that well, regardless of the win streak.

Given a key part of winning the premiership is a healthy, deep list - shouldn't the "over-exposure" of younger players increase the ratings, rather than (through lesser scoreboard results) reduce it?

Having a deep healthy list is important, and the more reason why Hawthorn should be winning by bigger margins. You could argue that they are taking their foot off the accelerator somewhat. But Fremantle has had one of the worst run of injuries this year and their form is stll just as good as Hawthorn's. They still have Sandilands and Pavlich to comeback and are weighted higher than Rioli and Whitecross. Will be interesting to see how Freo perform against North today as they are expected to thrash them.

 

[whiteoak]

Roby with the perfect front foot defensive tecniquiqe.

No gap between bat and pad at all. Head over the ball. Elbow nice and high.

Wonderful stuff that!

 

[The_Ru]

Roby with the perfect front foot defensive tecniquiqe.

No gap between bat and pad at all. Head over the ball. Elbow nice and high.

Wonderful stuff that!

Unfortunately he consistently plays down the wrong line completely.

 

[Roby]

Don't why the Fremantle line keeps coming in, now that Cunnington is out now. Another $2 on Fremantle -16.5 @ 1.92 Luxbet.

 

[Richo83]

Don't why the Fremantle line keeps coming in, now that Cunnington is out now. Another $2 on Fremantle -16.5 @ 1.92 Luxbet.

Mundy is out too, so it's not an absurd bet. It's also wet.

How many players are deemed category 5? Any from Richmond?

 

[Roby]

Mundy is out too, so it's not an absurd bet. It's also wet.

How many players are deemed category 5? Any from Richmond?

The wet won't make a difference. If anything Freo play better in it than the Roos.

Richmond has four this year, Martin upgraded to cat. five this year. Maric is still cat. four but his weighting is the same because his key/position.

p.s. did you end up taking the Tigers line?

 

[Richo83]

The wet won't make a difference. If anything Freo play better in it than the Roos.

Fair point. I do wonder though whether Fremantle will be able to score heavily in the wet though. Their last win in the wet against Adelaide I think was fairly small. At the least, there's too many questions about it to make it a safe bet for mine. I rarely bet in matches where it's wet.

Richmond has four this year, Martin upgraded to cat. five this year. Maric is still cat. four but his weighting is the same because his key/position.

So I'm guessing Riewoldt, Cotchin, Deledio and Martin become the category five players, right?. Which team has the most category five players?

p.s. did you end up taking the Tigers line?

I was, but your lack of confidence swayed me! The Port win spooked me as well, and I thought there may have been a chance of Richmond coasting to a five goal victory a la Collingwood last week.

It's alright I'm not a brave better, and I'll always take a 10 goal win, I did put a few dollars on Riewoldt being the first goalkicker @ $6 which is a smart bet given he has form in doing this, but it's not really the bet you can be confident in putting a whole lot on.

 

[Roby]

0/2

Bankrupt

LOL

Provided Roby actually puts money on the lines he he lists... he won't be back. The bookies will take his legs, his computer/modem and his doormat.

Why would they do that? Kind of like killing the goose that lays the golden egg!

I get it now, you're supposed to tip the non bolded team. DOH!

Profit this round.

 

[Roby]

Fair point. I do wonder though whether Fremantle will be able to score heavily in the wet though. Their last win in the wet against Adelaide I think was fairly small. At the least, there's too many questions about it to make it a safe bet for mine. I rarely bet in matches where it's wet.

The problem is North is just not good enough.

So I'm guessing Riewoldt, Cotchin, Deledio and Martin become the category five players, right?. Which team has the most category five players?

Hawthorn and Eagles have seven.

I was, but your lack of confidence swayed me! The Port win spooked me as well, and I thought there may have been a chance of Richmond coasting to a five goal victory a la Collingwood last week.

It has nothing to do with confidence or lack of, the formula predicted a bigger margin but umpiring and injuries can change the results, just like things in games like odd bounces and hitting the umpire like it happened against the Lions today and they got goal and ended up winning the game. Which reminds me:

All favourites expected to come up for the second consecutive week, although Geelong's match against the Lions is now seen as a danger game. Hawks are only now expected to win by 100 points on Friday night.

Almost put money on Brisbane but too close to the predicted line. In the Friday match if in reality the umpiring had been even remotely competent, Hawks should've smashed Eagles and that bet would've paid.

 

[DrEvil]

I don't think the umpiring was quite worth 110 points.

You never know, power ranking is powerful

 

[Richo83]

The problem is North is just not good enough.

Yeah, fair enough, I honestly thought North would be better than that. You've been talking about how North and Adelaide are overrated since last year, so it's a fair comment.

Hawthorn and Eagles have seven.

Seven eagles players? That seems a tad high, who are they?

It has nothing to do with confidence or lack of, the formula predicted a bigger margin but umpiring and injuries can change the results, just like things in games like odd bounces and hitting the umpire like it happened against the Lions today and they got goal and ended up winning the game. Which reminds me:1

No but you didn't put it as one of your tips for the round, you admitted that the predicted margin was too close to the line for you to put it up. My feeling is that unless it's listed, it's probably not that safe a bet. As a result, I balked, but it doesn't matter.

Personally, I read this thread more for the rankings than the betting. Betting is fun, but following your team and seeing it improve is more fun. The rankings make a lot of sense for mine.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Category 5's is almost worth it's own thread.

I'll have a go at Hawthorn:
Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli, Franklin, Roughead, Lake......Bruest/Birchall/Gibson/Stratton?

Struggling to find the 7th, as all are at that borderline AA-discussion level. Perhaps Hodge/Lake marked down for missed games, Mitchell for playing HBF.

 

[Richo83]

It would have to be out of these guys surely:

Cox
Naitanui
LeCras
Kennedy
Darling
McKenzie
Glass
Hurn
Waters
Selwood
Kerr
Gaff
Priddis
Shuey

This year, I'd say Naitanui, Kennedy and McKenzie have been category 5, the rest have been either 4 or below. I think one must also take into account the fact that it's possibly more important to have category 5 midfielders than any other area. So clubs have been able to win flags without star forwardlines mainly because their midfield is so good. So it does seem that a category 5 midfielder could possibly be worth more than say a category 5 small forward.

 

[doppleganger]

Profit this round.

Are you really gloating regarding a round where you only made profit after going back to the well by throwing more more money, which you again had to pull in from your own pocket as your bank is completely wiped?

50% of your 'discrepancies' getting up results in a Roby gloat.

Dont worry, rd 14 is ALWAYS a big money spinner ay Roby!

 

[Lensen]

you profited by putting $4 on something (after your first two bets lost) which you never do

loss chasing can be handy in the short term, not so much long term. more suited to flogs like Duritz

 

[Duritz]

you profited by putting $4 on something (after your first two bets lost) which you never do

loss chasing can be handy in the short term, not so much long term. more suited to flogs like Duritz

Hey!

 

[Richo83]

you profited by putting $4 on something (after your first two bets lost) which you never do

loss chasing can be handy in the short term, not so much long term. more suited to flogs like Duritz

Hey!

Play on.

 

[chargers 09]

Just out of interest how accurate were Roby's rankings by he end of last season?

 

[swansfan51]

Just out of interest how accurate were Roby's rankings by he end of last season?

Even after the Grand Final Hawthorn were still ranked first and Carlton were inside the top 8. In other words, not very.