2011 Ladder Predictions

[Frothies Mcveigh]

1. Collingwood
2. St.Kilda
3. Fremantle
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Geelong
6. Hawthorn
7. Sydney
8. North Melbourne
9. Carlton
10. Essendon
11. Melbourne
12. Adelaide
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Port Adelaide
16. Brisbane
17. West Coast

 

[Geddy Lee]

Everyone is underrating Port and Adelaide and overrating Melbourne and Richmond IMO. Gold Coast will be bottom three.

One years ladder is never like the previous years. With that in mind; *puts bullet proof jacket on*

1. Sydney
2. Fremantle
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. Port Adelaide
6. Hawthorn (very strange and uneven list)
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Adelaide

9. Melbourne (losing J Mac will hurt, if we lose Jamar we're dead)
10. North
11. Carlton
12. St Kilda (the big slider, purely a guess)
13. Brisbane
14. Bombers
15. Gold Coast
16. West Coast
17. Richmond (again, a very uneven list)

I really can't split Carlton, North and Melbourne. Those three could be anywhere next year. And Sydney are only going to get better, their young players are great and have cut some deadwood (including their tired coach).

 

[SouthSwans]

I don't rate Sydney at all for next year, losing Kirk & Roos, McVeigh & Bolton slowing, and their best player hitting 30. I think they'll be closer to their '09 finish than '10.

I can't see where they're adding another 3-4 wins to take them to top 4, let alone 1st.

Bookmarked

 

[Asgardian]

Everyone is underrating Port and Adelaide and overrating Melbourne and Richmond IMO.

It's understandable, South Australia has a very poor reputation.

 

[Mcveigh]

I'd have you around the mark, maybe inside the 8 maybe just miss.

My issue was with people tipping you to go top 4 or 1st.

uhhh weren't we 1 win away from being in the top 4 this year???

 

[MARK In TIME]

I don't rate Sydney at all for next year, losing Kirk & Roos, McVeigh & Bolton slowing, and their best player hitting 30. I think they'll be closer to their '09 finish than '10.

I can't see where they're adding another 3-4 wins to take them to top 4, let alone 1st.

I'm not suggesting we'll be first by any means (I'd say 4-9) but don't start passing judgment on other teams lists that you clearly know nothing about. BF is full of people like you, but at least try to be measured in your appraisal.

Kirk was in all honestly pretty awful this year. His output was way down and as much as I love him, his loss won't be significant in terms of the potential performance level of our team. He brings the intangible quality of leadership and his stoppage setup and organisation of the midfield will be missed I admit.

Losing Roosy has the potential to be a big loss, after all he was one of the best coaches in the league. However, his replacement was his understudy and Horse has been here for ages. They also implemented a succession plan so that hand over was as close to seamless as you could get. If you watched Sydney enough, you would have also seen Roosy on the bench on gameday and Longmire in the coaching box most of the time.

Basically our gameplan wont change in the fundamentals and Longmire, over the last couple of seasons has been given lots of responsibility to prepare him. Thus i can't see a massive drop of from us where we will be closer to 12th (our 2009 position) than 5th (our 2010 position).

McVeigh slowing? HA. Despite his baldness and his sickness affected middle of the season performance, he's 25 and when unleashed is still damaging. He gets the number one tag every game so evidently none of the opposition think he's 'slowing'.

The Bolton's are admittedly getting on, but this year Craig Bolton missed almost all of the season (indicating he's hardly necessary for our success, because we did fine getting to 5th without him) and Jude still had some gem games (including a world record high 26 contested disposals against your team I believe which single-handedly won us that game).

What you also don't seem to realise is that our best players this year were our younger ones. Here's some interesting reading for you from one of the Swans posters on our board about Sydney's B&F results:

Best thing about the results, have a look at the ages and experience of the top 10:

1. Jack - 23 - 71 games
2. Mumford - 24 - 42 games
3. Kennedy - 22 - 37 games
4. McVeigh - 25 - 147 games
5. Grundy - 24 - 70 games
6. Goodes - 30 - 276 games
7. Malceski - 26 - 92 games
8. Brett Kirk - 33 - 241 games
9. Ryan O'Keefe - 29 - 209 games
10. Daniel Hannebery - 19 - 28 games

That makes for very good reading, especially the top 5, and reflects the changing of the guard that the club is experiencing.

Because it's late, I'm bored and I'm not tired, I've done weighted averages (first based on the number of votes received squared, and then on B&F position squared (so from top 10, 1st gets weighting of 100, 2nd 81, 3rd 64, etc)) of age and games of the top 5 and top 10.

Top 5:

Votes-weighted average age: 23.53
Votes-weighted average experience: 70.95 games

Position-weighted average age: 23.29
Position-weighed average experience: 62.51 games

Top 10:

Votes-weighted average age: 25.27
Votes-weighted average experience: 114.18 games

Position-weighted average age: 24.26
Position-weighed average experience: 88.31 games

Whether either weighting system makes the data more or less reflective I have no idea, I really just kinda made it up as I went along, but one thing's clear; we're being led by the young brigade, our player development is simply booming, and we're in little danger of bottoming out any time soon. That premiership window is creaking open!

Now if you've made it this far, also keep in mind the amount of injuries we had this year to KKP's and senior players. We still made 5th and missed out on 4th by ONE win so no, we won't need another 3-4 wins to take us to the top 4 by this years reckoning.

I hope all those other ignorant posters who have a misinformed opinion of Sydney have a look at this post really hard before they yet again relegate us to 'finally bottoming out becasue we are too old/slow/don't have enough talent ect.'.

 

[Slattery_20]

I hope all those other ignorant posters who have a misinformed opinion of Sydney have a look at this post really hard before they yet again relegate us to 'finally bottoming out becasue we are too old/slow/don't have enough talent ect.'.

Good stuff. Argued very well against stuff I didn't say.
What I said was I couldn't see you improving.
I did not say you'd drop like a stone or bottom out.

I see more improvement in the Freos & Carltons of this world than the Sydneys - so sue me!
I was pretty unimpressed with the way you finished the season against a faltering, unfit Doggies side; and how comprehensively outrun by the Dees.

Record of 1 & 6 against the top 4 IMHO tells it like it is, a clear step below.

 

[Riders of Rohan]

A common misconception is the belief that only "young" players can improve

 

[.Shotties.]

Good stuff. Argued very well against stuff I didn't say.

Just quietly, she actually addressed what you said using your exact words.

 

[Slattery_20]

Just quietly, she actually addressed what you said using your exact words.

(s)he included me in with "others" who said you'd drop or bottom out.
Which I never did. Go back through my posts, I don't regularly hate on Sydney.
I can't see Sydney improving, I think they'll tread water or maybe go back a spot, get in a hissy fit, argue it & bookmark it all you want, it's my opinion.
Aside from that one good patch of 5 weeks or so where you beat Carlton, Hawks & Freo, a fairly uninspiring season IMHO.

 

[The Jaguar]

1. Collingwood - Will dominate again.
2. St. Kilda - Nearly there..
3. Hawthorn - Will hit back
4. Geelong - Have lost best player in the league, but wont stop them from reaching top 4.
5. Western Bulldogs - Will drop..
6. Fremantle - Playing interstate will hurt them again..
7.Carlton - Not good enough.
8. North Melbourne - Will be a force in a few years.
9. Sydney - lost a few important players and one of the best coaches, will hurt.
10. Richmond - Wil be a force, young team.
11. Melbourne - Will be a force, young team
12. Adelaide - Rebuilding..
13. Port Adelaide - Shit house!
14. Essendon - New Coach, Will be a force in a few years.
15. Brisbane - Shit house!
16. Gold Coast - New team, New players and unfortunatley will be a force in a few years. (f#%ck you AFL)
17. West Coast - Young list, cant play outside WA.

IIRC "Shit house" beat the "3rd placed will hit back Hawks" at AAMI last year and would've beaten you at the MCG as well if we didn't give you a 6 goal headstart. I'm not saying that we're going to be premiers next year but you're dreaming if you think Tassie are top 4 material.

You lost to Freo in a final FFS!

 

[.Shotties.]

get in a hissy fit, argue it & bookmark it all you want, it's my opinion.

Haha, I don't care enough about what little you know about Sydney to get into an argument or hissy fit over it, I was just observing that she addressed each of your arguments individually and you ignored it.

 

[MARK In TIME]

(s)he included me in with "others" who said you'd drop or bottom out.
Which I never did. Go back through my posts, I don't regularly hate on Sydney.
I can't see Sydney improving, I think they'll tread water or maybe go back a spot, get in a hissy fit, argue it & bookmark it all you want, it's my opinion.
Aside from that one good patch of 5 weeks or so where you beat Carlton, Hawks & Freo, a fairly uninspiring season IMHO.

She (and yes, it is a she) DIDN'T include you with others. I included others with you. I took your original post and systematically discredited every wrong thing you said, and then, in light of your own ignorance about our team, made a general remark to others who proffer similar factually incorrect statements to justify why we aren't capable of maintaining or improving our result this year.

And yes, you did say we'd drop in no simple terms. Did you not say: 'I don't rate Sydney at all for next year' and 'I think they'll be closer to their '09 finish than '10' (which incase you didn't get when I first pointed out, meant you thought we'd finish closer to 12th than 5th). If moving from 5th to 12th isn't 'dropping like a stone' I don't know what is.

You can't say I argued against something you didn't say, when every point I mentioned was a direct rebuttal to your exact statements. Just because you feel you don't relate to my VERY LAST paragraph when everything proceeding was in response YOUR post.

You may have your opinions that we will fall below 1-4 (and if you read the start of my original response I concur with these sentiments), but your justification of why was ill-informed and categorically wrong. Hence why I lumped others with you who, although may place Sydney lower than you did on their ladder predictions, use the same incorrect reasoning.

 

[Capitano_Cotch]

Collingwood
Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn
St Kilda
Carlton
Geelong
Fremantle
Melbourne

Sydney
North Melbourne
Adelaide
Richmond
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Gold Coast
Brisbane
West Coast

 

[Eth]

IIRC "Shit house" beat the "3rd placed will hit back Hawks" at AAMI last year and would've beaten you at the MCG as well if we didn't give you a 6 goal headstart. I'm not saying that we're going to be premiers next year but you're dreaming if you think Tassie are top 4 material.

You lost to Freo in a final FFS!

Melbourne played Collingwood twice for a draw and a one point loss. Does that mean we'll finish second?

 

[LITTLE STINGA]

you are clearly a muppet, melbourne have proved nothing.

When you make the 8 then start talking about winning flags, the pies lost 2 prelims before getting a crack.

i can smell fear

 

[LITTLE STINGA]

Melbourne played Collingwood twice for a draw and a one point loss. Does that mean we'll finish second?

Yes put your money on it.

 

[The Jaguar]

Melbourne played Collingwood twice for a draw and a one point loss. Does that mean we'll finish second?

You will be up there soon. I wouldn't be surprised if you make the 8 next year and top 4 in 2012. You are on the rise. Hawthorn on the other hand have a couple more years of making up the numbers in the finals before they slide down the ladder. Massively overrated team in my opinion.

 

[damuzzdu]

Melbourne played Collingwood twice for a draw and a one point loss. Does that mean we'll finish second?

Nope, will prob finish in the 8 due to the cushiest draw ever made.

 

[LITTLE STINGA]

Nope, will prob finish in the 8 due to the cushiest draw ever made.

The irony.

 

[Geddy Lee]

Nope, will prob finish in the 8 due to the cushiest draw ever made.

The iron knee!

 

[SouthSwans]

I don't rate Sydney at all for next year, losing Kirk & Roos, McVeigh & Bolton slowing, and their best player hitting 30. I think they'll be closer to their '09 finish than '10.

B: Craig Bolton - Lewis R-Thomson - Tadhg Kennelly
HB: Nick Malceski - Heath Grundy - Andrejs Everitt
C: Dan Hannebery - Jude Bolton - Ryan O'Keefe
HF: Jarrad McVeigh - Adam Goodes - Rhyce Shaw
F: Ben McGlynn - Daniel Bradshaw - Trent D-Lane
Foll: Shane Mumford - Josh Kennedy - Kieren Jack
I/C: Mark Seaby - Nick Smith - Lewis Jetta
Sub: Gary Rohan
Emg: Marty Mattner - Jesse White - Craig Bird
Depth: Mike Pyke, Paul Bevan, Jarred Moore, Ted Richards, Brett Meredith, Sam Reid, Campbell Heath.

That ain't not not bad.

 

[Breakthelines]

i can smell fear

No what you can smell is your 1964 flag decaying in your club rooms.......

 

[kid_a]

1.Sydney-Dramatic climb up the ladder
2.Western Bulldogs-NOTHING is stopping them from being a premiership side!
3.Fremantle-Serious contenders
4.Collingwood-New interchange rules mess up their gameplan
5.Melbourne-Jurrah has an amazing season
6.Geelong-Dynasty, over
7.St Kilda-Same as Collingwood
8.North Melbourne-On the rise

9.Gold Coast-They have a better list then half the teams in the AFL, will take a year to settle into their gameplan
10.Port Adelaide
11.Adelaide
12.Essendon
13.Richmond
14.Brisbane
15.Hawthorn
16.West Coast
17.Carlton-Nothing going for them

except maybe collingwood, the saints, the swans etc.

 

[KissStephanie]

Collingwood will finish 1st but will wobble in the Grand Final. People think that the wobble is over for the Pie but it is not, they just played a team that chokes more than they do. St.Kilda should have been banned for the year after that gutless performance lead by the new Leon Davis Nick Riewoldt.

Ha ha ha! Some people are really struggling with the reality that not only were Collingwood premiers this year, but the most dominant team of the season as 20 wins, and only 4 losses, and a percentage of 142% (which should have been more due to poor conversion during the season) suggests.

Instead of giving credit where it is due for the thrashing of the other three top-4 teams during the finals, one delusional person prefers to blame the Grand Final opponent for Collingwood's premiership. Sometimes all it takes is a Grand Final win against any opposition to become even better, and I think Collingwood will be even better in 2011.

We also have a good draw.

So does Collingwood, but the difference is that Collingwood has proved themselves, whilst Melbourne has a lot to prove as recent finishes of 14th, 16th, 16th and 12th indicates. They will miss their captain a lot, and they would not be the first team to take a step backwards before they go forward.

i can smell fear

That would be coming from yourself. What are you scared of? When I think of Melbourne, I just think of a team that Collingwood has beaten 141 times and only lost 79 times, and all I can smell is wood from their vast collection of a particular type of kitchen utensil.