Hot Topic Harley Reid v Draft - Win-win?

[faible]

Pretty confident none of you are WCE list manager, so declaring it'll definitely be x or y picks is pretty meaningless.

 

[andleanback]

what are we trading to get a future first from another club?

Early seconds that have value can always be flipped for f1 for teams chasing academy points.
I’m also saying generally speaking, it’s not necessarily essendon that will be trading for him. Say if Reid selects the hawks, hawks f1 is going to be mid teens at best. And they’ll struggle to get their hands on 2 top 10 picks this year.

 

[ghostdog]

He is not worth 3 x forst round picks.

its that simple.

Thats before you even get to the fact he's going to demand $2M plus a year, on a massive length contract.

There is WAY too much risk with Reid. I would rather trust Rosa.

The club has also said they are going to the draft to get talent. Will be a pretty big backflip from them to then go after Reid.

Honestly, I get the impression we wouldn't take Reid for the extreme price you've described anyway.

It may be that Reid plays at WC in '26.

 

[ghostdog]

The eagles will want 3 top 10 picks.

To start negotiations, sure. That's good practice when you expect to be haggled down, which is what any good list manager would do.

 

[ghostdog]

If they do (which they will ask for) then it could get parked for a year and then resume when Reid is out of contract.

Oh snap.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

We aren't throwing the draft away, we'd be getting Reid who is a rare, elite talent.

Even for rare talents you must be careful to not trade away too much.

If our 3 first rounders (assuming we let Draper go) fell where they are currently for last years draft crop; the players we give up for him could have been Finn O'Sullivan, Harvey Langford and Tobie Travaglia. In 2022 the players you could have got Sheezel, Humphrey and Phillipou. 2021 could have netted Callaghan, Andrew, NWM. In Reids own draft you could have netted McKercher, Curtin and Caddy.

There is no ****ing way in hell am I doing that deal.

 

[ghostdog]

Even for rare talents you must be careful to not trade away too much.

If our 3 first rounders (assuming we let Draper go) fell where they are currently for last years draft crop; the players we give up for him could have been Finn O'Sullivan, Harvey Langford and Tobie Travaglia. In 2022 the players you could have got Sheezel, Humphrey and Phillipou. 2021 could have netted Callaghan, Andrew, NWM. In Reids own draft you could have netted McKercher, Curtin and Caddy.

There is no ****ing way in hell am I doing that deal.

That looks alright.
Are you compensating us with a top ten pick for Draper though? Pretty generous.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

That looks alright.
Are you compensating us with a top ten pick for Draper though? Pretty generous.

If we finish where we are now the AFL will as part of their mystery compensation formula which is pretty much priority picks for crap teams.

 

[ghostdog]

If we finish where we are now the AFL will as part of their mystery compensation formula which is pretty much priority picks for crap teams.

Even though we are Essendon.
I still wouldn't bet on it.
If you're thinking conservatively instead, who are the likely third players for those drafts you'd identify? What draft pick is the conservative guess?

 

[faible]

The closest trade in recent times was for JHF:

North gave up JHF and Pick 1 to bring in two top-5 picks.

NORTH MELBOURNE
Trade out: Jason Horne-Francis, pick No.1, 2023 third-round pick (tied to Fremantle)
Trade in: Picks No.2, 3, 40, 43, 2023 future first-round pick (tied to Port Adelaide)

PORT ADELAIDE
Trade out: Picks No.8, 43, 53, 57, 2023 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, 2023 third-round pick
Trade in: Jason Horne-Francis, Junior Rioli, 2023 second-round pick (tied to Collingwood), 2023 future third-round pick (tied to Fremantle)

WEST COAST
Trade out: Junior Rioli, picks No.2, 40
Trade in: Picks No.8, 12, 2023 second-round pick (tied to Port Adelaide), 2023 third-round pick (tied to Port Adelaide)

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Trade out: Picks No.3, 12, 2023 second-round pick (tied to Collingwood)
Trade in: Pick No.1, 53, 57

 

[crackers65]

Draper is not worth a band 1 compensation pick. Even if he was this is still EFC. The last multiple top tens we chose were Parish and Francis in one and Cox, Perkins and Z. Reid. Harley is worth all of them and more.

 

[Donflicted]

Draper is not worth a band 1 compensation pick. Even if he was this is still EFC. The last multiple top tens we chose were Parish and Francis in one and Cox, Perkins and Z. Reid. Harley is worth all of them and more.

Dodo isnt at the club anymore.......

Reid is not the way forward if we can never identify and bring in talent via the draft we will never ever improve.
Even the Hawks had a foundation built from the draft prior to adding in talent via trade

 

[faible]

Dodo isnt at the club anymore.......

Reid is not the way forward if we can never identify and bring in talent via the draft we will never ever improve.
Even the Hawks had a foundation built from the draft prior to adding in talent via trade

Conversely; Brisbane added two of their best midfielders (Neale & Dunkley) via trade, along with their top two goal kickers (Cameron & Daniher) whilst bringing in talent through the draft.

I don't think it's an either / or scenario, it just needs some level of forward thinking and planning around it.

That's why I liked our 2024 draft, it 'looked' different not just in the kinds of players we drafted, but in the accumulation of future currency for the 2025 draft. It looks like someone (Rosa I assume) has a plan instead of just collecting players each year.

 

[ant555]

Draper is not worth a band 1 compensation pick. Even if he was this is still EFC. The last multiple top tens we chose were Parish and Francis in one and Cox, Perkins and Z. Reid. Harley is worth all of them and more.

Reid is worth them all. Risk is still there but we have a different recruiting team now so the past is a bit irrelevant.
Draper will get band 1 if the crows offer $800k plus over 5 plus years.

 

[FootyGuru]

Just spitballing, but maybe the duursma trio and potentially and keeping the extra pick could be better long run than spending the lot on Reid.

Trade for Zane, draft Willem, already have Xavier who I’m a huge fan of.

Then next season Harley might still be available and still dating the sister and might still be in play.

What do we think Zane would be worth?

Where is Willem getting drafted? Talk of 1.

Thoughts

 

[JayJ20]

In my view, best case scenario is that Reid chooses to stay at West Coast this year and we get our shit together in 12 months so we look like an attractive prospect. It means we can go to the draft and we don't need to worry about spending picks because we are loaded with academy/Father-son in the coming years.

If Reid however wants to come to us, then we get it done. There's no way I would support us overlooking a talent like Reid. I suspect the club won't either.

 

[Donflicted]

Hawks or Cats - Cal Twomey

 

[andleanback]

If Reid selects your club to come you get the deal done end of story. But I’d say it’s highly likely we aren’t his number 1 option to choose if he decides to come home.
I’d also say west coast will want an answer with what he’s doing this year, if he’s not going to extend by a year or 2 this season it would be better to trade him now. Get more value and more picks before Tasmania come in.

 

[thebigboy]

Hawks or Cats - Cal Twomey

Considering the Cats have always publicised how they have a “fixed wage structure” to manage the cap, if he goes there, they should be forced to disclose all their 3rd party deals to the public. No chance they’d get it done within the league’s rules.

 

[Donflicted]

Considering the Cats have always publicised how they have a “fixed wage structure” to manage the cap, if he goes there, they should be forced to disclose all their 3rd party deals to the public. No chance they’d get it done within the league’s rules.

least we keep our picks just dont know how its gonna happen cats have nothing to trade

 

[thebigboy]

least we keep our picks just dont know how its gonna happen cats have nothing to trade

It would have to be a multi-club deal or a big game player being forced out of there. I agree though, would be very difficult to execute

 

[Donflicted]

It would have to be a multi-club deal or a big game player being forced out of there. I agree though, would be very difficult to execute

if he was out of contract it would be a different story

 

[MiguelM]

Considering the Cats have always publicised how they have a “fixed wage structure” to manage the cap, if he goes there, they should be forced to disclose all their 3rd party deals to the public. No chance they’d get it done within the league’s rules.

A nice house on the coast awaits!!

 

[jmoo wan]

i never wanted him anyway, over rated hack

 

[Beerfish]

A nice house on the coast awaits!!

Surely the afl would cotton on to that.