Europe German Federal Election, 23/02/25 - The Elontervention

[Episode IV]

I replied to the poster who's argument is that, to paraphrase, 'look the media says europe and uk are protest voting against islamic immigration'

The discussion began in the 'why I blame islam' thread and it got moved here because the poster used the excuse that Germany and Europe are protest voting.

I've tried to explain that the poster is reading too much into media (and how they sell the dystopia for click bait) either through naivety or because it suits the poster narrative.

Nothing to do with the German election.

31% is the amount of Americans that voted for tRump, zero to do with the German election. I used this to explain that despite the portrayal as tRump as 'popular', it is a misnomer.

69% of Americans obviously are not so much in love with tRump.

All of this is a discussion for another thread though.

Ok, so there's something missing. My apologies if that's the case.

The German election was very much about immigration, though. Voters have been effectively ignored, and the ones who voted CDU because of a hard stance on immigration which is set to be reversed, are the ones feeling the most betrayed.

The results (CDU in power after forming a coalition with the left) are also a cause for grave concern. Europe is becoming increasingly autocratic, and the incongruity of media articles highlighting the far-right nature of the AfD (for example) and the desire not to allow them any say in government despite voter preferences is also concerning.

I'd agree the results don't really count as a protest vote, but the fact that Germans are voting further right due to one primary issue in spite of their fear of the right, is also alarming. So is that vote being shunted aside.

Immigration was the core issue during this vote. A secondary issue, as a result of it, is the increasingly autocratic left and centre, not only in Germany but elsewhere, who are manipulating elections and government in order to serve their own interests.
Politicians and media hushed up, homes raided, and blocking an elected party (almost) from government entirely... then they (the centre and left) turn around and warn us all about Nazis and how it's similar to the 1930's. Fear tactics.

Check out the recent Austrian results, if you have time and interest. The party which won the election will not be represented in government at all, using very similar tactics - in the Austrian case, a 3-way coalition formed after the result to ensure the party with the most votes (the anti-immigration Freedom Party) would not be forming a government, nor have any real representation.

Europe is becoming increasingly authoritarian and democracy is becoming a joke.
I feel something is going to give soon.

 

[Episode IV]

Germany just went conservative (as already posted). The French elections were a big swing to the right. Ultimately that didn't deliver a change in Government as their strange 2-staged election process allowed the Centrist party to align with the far left to push out the right, but it was a big swing in the popular vote. Finally, Reform UK (politicking largely on an anti-immigration basis) is tipped as a chance to form Government, or at least replace the Tories as the primary conservative party in opposition, currently polling at 27% (2% above Labour and 6% above Tories). The Netherlands freedom party was successful in 2023 and has current highest approval ratings. Then of course there is Trump.

Bit of a bizarre take really. It's pretty clear that people around the world are standing up against far left ideals.

Correct. Look into Austria recently, as well. Western democracy is fast becoming an illusion.

The difficulty comes about when the manipulation of election results (resulting in centre-left governments, or ineffective centre-right) is accepted by those on the ground.

What action is to be taken? What more can they do?
In the meantime, four more years... four more years... four more years... until one day, they wake up and realise that the indigenous are now in a minority, and the world they knew is gone.

You'd think Australians, historical circumstances being a different kettle of fish to Europeans, would know and understand that viewpoint more than most. For better or worse (an argument for a different time), we just came in and took over.

We don't, though.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Why is immigration such a big issue? According to reports I have read, immigration crime hasn't gone up. Yet the media always like to highlight any crime committed by a migrant. Is it scare tactics working to rile up the general population, to make things seem worse than they really are? Or to blame a minority for the countries failings, which happens to be the same issues every developed country is facing right now?

Xenophobia is a hell of a drug. And easy to use as an explanation for every problem, no matter how big or small.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The difficulty comes about when the manipulation of election results (resulting in centre-left governments, or ineffective centre-right) is accepted by those on the ground.

LOL. What manipulation? If you're referring to coalition-building, welcome to democracy, parties can make their own decisions.

What action is to be taken? What more can they do?
In the meantime, four more years... four more years... four more years... until one day, they wake up and realise that the indigenous are now in a minority, and the world they knew is gone.

Bigger LOL this time. Good work trying to peddle the Great Replacement Theory garbage.

You'd think Australians, historical circumstances being a different kettle of fish to Europeans, would know and understand that viewpoint more than most. For better or worse (an argument for a different time), we just came in and took over.

We don't, though.

No no no, see, it's fine when white people do it. It's only a problem if brown people do it. Although in this case it's a barefaced lie to suggest brown people are taking over any western country demographically.

 

[Episode IV]

Well I am not sure if the east, and surrounds of Berlin remained poor since the fall of the wall.

But poorer areas tend to lean more towards far right or nationalist ideologies. But I am still surprised by their popularity. But even more so at how specifically their support base is located, Berlin of all sorts.

Why are you surprised?
Data analysis requires that you look at as much data as possible, in order to gain as much information as possible before forming a conclusion.

Here's another map, to complement the one given by another poster above regarding voting habits.
Try superimposing them.

LOL. What manipulation? If you're referring to coalition-building, welcome to democracy, parties can make their own decisions.

It took 5 months and two attempts after the Austrian election results were in for the coalition to be formed and take office - with the barest possible number of seats. The government which was voted out was left in place in a caretaker capacity during that time.

I don't think you really understand what is happening in Europe. Bit of a giggle for you.

Bigger LOL this time. Good work trying to peddle the Great Replacement Theory garbage.

Was I?

No no no, see, it's fine when white people do it. It's only a problem if brown people do it. Although in this case it's a barefaced lie to suggest brown people are taking over any western country demographically.

And here, you've gone right off the deep end.
What are you talking about?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I don't think you really understand what is happening in Europe. Bit of a giggle for you.

I think you're either a troll, a fool, or both.

 

[Episode IV]

View attachment 2233658

German election 2025: results in full

With all seats assigned, Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU conservatives will be the biggest party in the Bundestag, but the far-right AfD have come second. Find full results from every constituency

www.theguardian.com

Nice picture.
Here's another one.

Map showing German demographics - population without a migrant background. Look, there's Berlin.
Now superimpose them. See the difference?

There's a lot more to it than these two pictures would suggest, but I'll keep it simple to begin with.

 

[Episode IV]

I think you're either a troll, a fool, or both.

You can think whatever you like, I've already reached the conclusion that thinking isn't really your forte at all and decided not to bother with you any further.
Go away. Come back if you manage to dispense with the slogans and white/brown rhetoric and can actually engage on a reasonable level. I have my doubts, personally, but let's see what you come up with.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You can think whatever you like, I've already reached the conclusion that thinking isn't really your forte at all and decided not to bother with you any further.
Go away. Come back if you manage to dispense with the slogans and white/brown rhetoric and can actually engage on a reasonable level. I have my doubts, personally, but let's see what you come up with.

Watch out dude, the scary brown people are outside your door!

 

[Saint Shags]

Nice picture.
Here's another one.

Map showing German demographics - population without a migrant background. Look, there's Berlin.
Now superimpose them. See the difference?

There's a lot more to it than these two pictures would suggest, but I'll keep it simple to begin with.


View attachment 2237883

Watch out for the immigrants!

 

[kickazz]

Nice picture.
Here's another one.

Map showing German demographics - population without a migrant background. Look, there's Berlin.
Now superimpose them. See the difference?

There's a lot more to it than these two pictures would suggest, but I'll keep it simple to begin with.


View attachment 2237883

So am I missing something, but does this basically tell us that the areas with bugger all immigrants are the ones that voted that there were too many immigrants and that immigration is a problem; but those areas with more of a lived experience with immigrants don't seem to have a problem with it?

 

[Carringbush2010]

The German election was very much about immigration, though.

True, but media defiinitely have played part in it, probably wouldn't have been the number one issue if it wasn't for the media.

Voters have been effectively ignored,

This happens all the time all over the world, nothing new here.

Immigration was the core issue during this vote.

And shouldn't have been, partly because the media again is driving the negative for click bait, and dumb nuffies in social media like here gobble it up and think 'well everyone thinks this way'.

 

[Episode IV]

So am I missing something, but does this basically tell us that the areas with bugger all immigrants are the ones that voted that there were too many immigrants and that immigration is a problem; but those areas with more of a lived experience with immigrants don't seem to have a problem with it?

No, it doesn't.

Look closer. The areas which had the least turnout for the AdF in voting are the areas where migrants are most concentrated. That's true, but scratching the surface will not give you a clear picture.
Remember, though, that compared with up to 30% support or thereabouts in the East, an average of around 10% was still achieved for the AdF in the West. Couple that with the statements I've already made regarding the reluctance of Germans to vote far right in general.

For some answer to the Eastern regions voting AdF and anti-immigration, you'll need to look into the history of Germany going all the way back to 1945. Soviet occupation led to Eastern Germany being far less developed than the West. With the tearing down of the Wall in 1989 and the subsequent re-unification of Germany, efforts were made to bridge the gap in development between the two regions but the one thing required in that regard - money - was poured initially into Berlin (mostly) and has reduced significantly in recent decades.
In the West, Germany is currently spending upwards of 20 billon Euros per annum (2023 figures, and still rising) in migrant support services. That includes infrastructure expansion as well as social support. Eastern Germany, in dire need of further development to prevent the youth and brain drain currently being experienced, is looking at those figures and thinking "hmm".
That's one reason for Eastern voting preferences, and an important one.

In the West, as I said, it's more complicated than that. There are several questions which need to be asked.
Bit pressed for time (working night shift) but here are some things that you should look into:

1. Who has the right to vote in Germany? (Look closely into recent developments)
2. Which is the largest migrant group (by a large margin) in Germany?
3. Which areas are migrants concentrated in, and which groups are concentrated in those areas?
4. What are the demographics of varying migrant groups in terms of age and sexual breakdowns?
5. Which migrant groups are attracting negative attention? And why?
6. Crime rates. Someone up there said crime in Germany wasn't increasing. That needs further investigation as well. Which is a polite way of saying bullshit.
7. and finally (for now) the term "anti-immigration" itself is misleading. Immigration takes several different forms. The simplest breakdown is probably legal and illegal immigration (although even that isn't too well-defined). You've got skilled worker migration, refugees, asylum seekers, all sorts. Which ones are really being discussed?

 

[Episode IV]

True, but media defiinitely have played part in it, probably wouldn't have been the number one issue if it wasn't for the media.

This happens all the time all over the world, nothing new here.

And shouldn't have been, partly because the media again is driving the negative for click bait, and dumb nuffies in social media like here gobble it up and think 'well everyone thinks this way'.

... That's a dismissive position to take.

I agree with your comments on the media in general, but to assume they're almost solely responsible for creating opinion out of whole cloth is rather misleading. In addition to which, the media in Germany appears to me to be more left-leaning than right.

If a similar result was to happen in Australia (e.g. Labor voted into government, Libs cancel the election results until they had time to gather enough support to prevent Labour from taking office, and being forced into several compromises in order to do so) Australians would be in the streets. Not that a similar situation is likely in Australia, due to a tighter political setup, but still.

 

[Carringbush2010]

but to assume they're almost solely responsible for creating opinion out of whole cloth is rather misleading

No that's not what I assumed, apologies if misleading.

I didn't say media create the opinion, the media report on whatever and sensationalize it, then social media gullibles eat it up, and the picture is painted 'well Jan and Joe must think this way'

Pick any societal topic and you'd be forgiven for thinking that minority groups get all the attention, and by extension the whatever opinion is portrayed as popular belief, this is probably not agenda driven by media as such, as their agenda is attention- their revenue.

So no media don't create the opinion (apart from opinion articles by journos - even worse), but they exacerbate to create attention and don't give a shit how the public perceives, only concerned of the revenue from said public.

Clear as mud I know.

 

[Episode IV]

No that's not what I assumed, apologies if misleading.

I didn't say media create the opinion, the media report on whatever and sensationalize it, then social media gullibles eat it up, and the picture is painted 'well Jan and Joe must think this way'

Pick any societal topic and you'd be forgiven for thinking that minority groups get all the attention, and by extension the whatever opinion is portrayed as popular belief, this is probably not agenda driven by media as such, as their agenda is attention- their revenue.

So no media don't create the opinion (apart from opinion articles by journos - even worse), but they exacerbate to create attention and don't give a shit how the public perceives, only concerned of the revenue from said public.

Clear as mud I know.

Nah it's fine, I get you. I have a fair idea of how it all works.
I have very similar concerns, and I take things like this into account when commenting. Well, usually.

I have more of an idea that society in the West is currently driven by those who actually don't.

But. There's always a "but".
To begin at the very beginning, what is minority group, and how is that affected by the concept or ideal of multiculturalism?

 

[Carringbush2010]

Nah it's fine, I get you. I have a fair idea of how it all works.
I have very similar concerns, and I take things like this into account when commenting. Well, usually.

I have more of an idea that society in the West is currently driven by those who actually don't.

But. There's always a "but".
To begin at the very beginning, what is minority group, and how is that affected by the concept or ideal of multiculturalism?

Great post.

The 'but', 'what is a minority group?'

With the will of not being binary..... even though more nuanced than......... much more nuanced.

Any group considered a minority.

Examples, off the top of my head.

LBGTQI
Indigenous (not just in Australia)
Disabled (phyiscally or mentally impaired / challenged)
Military veterans (might be a stretch)
Low socioeconomic

Point being, the media sensationalizes the issues facing these groups, I'm not saying these issues don't exist, they absolutely do, BUT the media exploits the issues, not for agenda, but for revenue < which of course I don't need to tell you.

The problem being, which you concede in your concern, is that unpopular belief is portrayed as popular belief as a result.

 

[Baldur]

The east remains older, poorer, less educated, with higher unemployment and a recent history of a sudden collapse of their society. That the people who remain in the east have a different mindset than those in the west is hardly unexpected.

When the west took over, not all the changes were for the good of the people in the east, women and older people in particular lost out. Basically the economic results of unification can be seen as the western rich stealing from the easterners, while allowing western tax payers to prop them up in compensation.

Further changes to their society, particularly if backed by the west are seen with suspicion. Most leaders, political, businesses etc in Germany remain westerners. Given the parties that the easters favor will not be allowed near power. It is hardly surprising if easterners view it as not their government.

 

[EagleMan87]

Nice picture.
Here's another one.

Map showing German demographics - population without a migrant background. Look, there's Berlin.
Now superimpose them. See the difference?

There's a lot more to it than these two pictures would suggest, but I'll keep it simple to begin with.


View attachment 2237883

So, in other words, the people least affected by immigration are the ones most fearful of it?



I wonder why that is

 

[Baldur]

So, in other words, the people least affected by immigration are the ones most fearful of it?

View attachment 2254086

I wonder why that is

People tend to fear the unknown. It is far easier for some ahole pollie seeking to use your fear to gain power, to demonize people you have never met, than Joe next door.

 

[Episode IV]

Great post.

The 'but', 'what is a minority group?'

With the will of not being binary..... even though more nuanced than......... much more nuanced.

Any group considered a minority.

Examples, off the top of my head.

LBGTQI
Indigenous (not just in Australia)
Disabled (physically or mentally impaired / challenged)
Military veterans (might be a stretch)
Low socioeconomic

Point being, the media sensationalizes the issues facing these groups, I'm not saying these issues don't exist, they absolutely do, BUT the media exploits the issues, not for agenda, but for revenue < which of course I don't need to tell you.

The problem being, which you concede in your concern, is that unpopular belief is portrayed as popular belief as a result.

With respect to the part in bold, not always. There are more than a few occasions when the reverse is also true. I feel that the days when the media had at least a modicum of integrity are long gone - but it still does serve as information in the sense that when all the opinion and self-indulgent "analysis" has been stripped away, it gives a starting point for further investigation, if one has the interest.
For example, the recent German elections (among others I've mentioned) are not lying about the shift to right-wing groups. That is information, not opinion. The only thing in contention is the why... and I'm not content with a (paid) Youtube video to provide me with that. Unfortunately, most are.

You might have noticed that the questions I posed above to Kickazz have remained unanswered. Shocked to be sitting here. Particularly given that the contents of Baldur's video were some of the things I touched upon earlier, in the vain hope that some might actually look into it rather than just find the first vid that gives them some comfort.

I suppose that it's fairly appropriate that the last thing I'll say on this matter is that when all is said and done, and particularly when one takes into account the primary focus of videos like Baldur's above, there is only one topic under discussion. Idealism is a tool in service to that, unwitting or otherwise... everyone is being used.

Who and what are we all in service to?

 

[Carringbush2010]

With respect to the part in bold, not always. There are more than a few occasions when the reverse is also true. I feel that the days when the media had at least a modicum of integrity are long gone - but it still does serve as information in the sense that when all the opinion and self-indulgent "analysis" has been stripped away, it gives a starting point for further investigation, if one has the interest.
For example, the recent German elections (among others I've mentioned) are not lying about the shift to right-wing groups. That is information, not opinion. The only thing in contention is the why... and I'm not content with a (paid) Youtube video to provide me with that. Unfortunately, most are.

You might have noticed that the questions I posed above to Kickazz have remained unanswered. Shocked to be sitting here. Particularly given that the contents of Baldur's video were some of the things I touched upon earlier, in the vain hope that some might actually look into it rather than just find the first vid that gives them some comfort.

I suppose that it's fairly appropriate that the last thing I'll say on this matter is that when all is said and done, and particularly when one takes into account the primary focus of videos like Baldur's above, there is only one topic under discussion. Idealism is a tool in service to that, unwitting or otherwise... everyone is being used.

Who and what are we all in service to?

I feel like we're going around in circles.

Again, I'm not disputing that msm does inform truths, it's the way the information is reported that leads to hyperbole.

Probably a topic for another thread

 

[Scotland]

Fascinating result with a centre right/centre left coalition to keep out the far right.

With nearly 30% of the population voting AfD or Die Linke it is pretty clear that people are fed up with the usual options.

What will be interesting to follow is whether the coalition can function effectively and how its performance impacts the next time people get a chance to vote.

Germans voted #1 centre right and #2 far right and ended up with the centre left party they were sick of as part of a new coalition. Would not surprise me to see AfD at #1 next time around. PVV in the Netherlands were a fringe party that got 5% of the vote, then 10%, then suddenly more votes than anyone and now they are part of a governing coalition. Similar trajectory for RN in France.

Political parties working together to "keep out the far right" against the will of the voting public will end in tears, IMO.

 

[Gough]

Feels like this might have been Musk's one shot at really interfering in foreign elections. His work since Trump has come to power has devalued the power of his endorsement just as much as it has his companies.