Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Mobbs]

Chasing down old posts I couldn't get to yesterday because beer.

Easier than double quoting:
Me : RF weight of numbers is looking more and more like all they've got.
barreness : It appears this is the main thing in this style of warfare

Yes, I agree. 'Meatwave' attacks are inhumane, poor blood accountancy & bad press, but they could still win someone a war if they are willing to double and triple down on it. The RF have won most of their recent territory gains through sacrificing shocking numbers of troops, and Ukraine would rather concede some bits of territory than send everybody to certain death. A duality of running the numbers and human rights policies generally drive these differences.

This further magnifies the need for lethal resources. If you're loaded up with ammunition, you can make a meatwave enemy hurt in all facets - the meatwave format fails to advance, it looks horrific to the world and even to the RF populace, and eventually resources still run out regardless the massive population.

And if you're not loaded up with ammunition, the meatwaves will slowly grind out territorial gain, and the losses on the RF side can be not only less extensive (though still big), they can also be paraded as justified.

 

[Mobbs]

barreness : Ukraine front lines are collapsing ...
Visions : Really? Pray tell where? Have heard this many times in the last two years, its like a broken record. But hey, maybe this time its different. Give it your best shot.
barreness : Well I mean Mobbs went through more details in an earlier post ...

Just to clarify, here's what I said:
Probably you are referencing the conceded territory in Avdiivka > Ocherytne & Bakhmut > Chasov Yar. RF gained approx the same amount of territory than they lost during Ukraine's "failed" counter-offensive. They've now ground to a halt again after some territorial advance via Avdiivka. We watch closely to see what happens next.

Kharkiv/Sumy is a larger threat, tho it hasn't yet been commenced. Many troops are gathered there.

So let's expand on this topic:
Near Ocherytne, the RF have stopped advancing. They moved forward a fair bit over a couple of weeks, on the back of the Avdiivka gain They've taken about 3 empty fields in the last 3 days. Either they've stretched their wagon trail a bit thin and have to move the knots forward to catch up, or they've reached new defensive fortifications, or (my guess) is Ukraine have finally switched out the 115th who were a grossly inexperienced batallion that were making errors, for more adept divisions.

The 115th was actually there (failing to) defending Ocherytne region due to a rotation - previous more pro divs had been there a while and it was time to rest them via rotation. I haven't checked the maps out recently as my work has been insane this week & haven't had much time. I'll try to get more up to speed again.

This all comes down to resourcing. In this day and age, a "meatwave" approach should fail, due to the tech behind defensive lethal resources. But Ukraine had run low. They budgeted for resources that were suddenly yoiked away. Noting the issues in relying on allied support, they have been busy trying to produce their own but it takes time. When a place like Kramatorsk/Slovyansk becomes in danger, it will matter. Right now it doesn't matter so much, except in the news reports.

I said it before, and I'll repeat it. Ocherytne itself means nothing. What RF holding a vector out to Ocherytne might potentially enable, that's why it's of concern.

Over at Chasov Yar, RF basically failed in the same way the taking of Bakhmut & Avdiivka failed. Eventually taking these regions in 40 to 400 times the amount of time it should have taken, with 40 to 400 times the cost, is a failure. Chasov Yar was purely a badge to match a special day, just like Bakhmut was, and just like Avdiivka was. In each case, they missed the appointment. (Chasov Yar still hasn't been taken as of yesterday). {checks maps quickly} - still no movement (RF advanced around 5th May by about one treeline).

 

[Visions]

Well I mean Mobbs went through more details in an earlier post but here's some links

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...three-villages-in-east-as-russia-claims-gains


Odessa could be on the cards and would be a grave loss for Ukraine

Taking a few villages west of Donetsk does not constitute a collapse of the frontlines.

What about the remaining 1000km of frontlines running north and further west which hasnt moved?

And Odesa? Now you’re trolling. They aren’t even fighting in that direction (apart from a few pesky Ukrainian soldiers causing the Russians issues over the river) and at this rate it will take the meatwave 150 years to get there.

If you could devise a military strategy to conquer it, you would be hired as a general by the Russian army.

And what would your strategy be? Please say naval landing, please say naval landing…

 

[jatz14]

Another attempt at genocide with the ethnic cleansing by the Russians in Mariupol.





Chenchya sends its greeting on what happens with negotiated ceasefires with Russia. They will take any lull to rebuild and come again.



But Russia tells us the justification was the Nazis.......



Really? Pray tell where? Have heard this many times in the last two years, its like a broken record. But hey, maybe this time its different. Give it your best shot.



I think I mentioned it before, Russia is the unluckiest country on earth being able to have a 100% strike rate against foreign drones and unmanned aircraft, yet it still causes untold damage......

Interesting that it seems in the Kaluga incident, they had ample warning yet couldn't take the drones down. Great defence!

Withdrawing in good order to previously organised defensive lines, if your Ukrainian, is "collapsing".

Withdrawing to previously organised defensive lines, if your Russian is "failed Ukrainian offensive"

You need to learn to speak Vatnik.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

I mean Chechnya was Islamic militants, also a false flag with the apartment bombings no doubt. Presume you're talking about the second war under Putin and not the first under Yeltsin which is a pretty different situation

But yeh they have long been a part of Russia and remain so. The actual war lasted like a year or two and not really a shot fired since 2009. Grozny was horrific

Well I mean Mobbs went through more details in an earlier post but here's some links

https://www.politico.eu/article/why-ukraine-losing-russia-war/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...three-villages-in-east-as-russia-claims-gains


Odessa could be on the cards and would be a grave loss for Ukraine

They haven't long been a part of Russia.

They would be Russian if that was the case. And we, and they, would refer to them as Russian, and where they lived would be a region (who's name we wouldn't know), of Russia.

They have long been a region conquered by the naturally imperialist Russian state. But they have never been Russian.

Like the Manchurians will never be Russian.

The reason why Russia is a forever war state. The sheer number of "Russians" that are, and only remain, "Russian" by force or threat of force.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

Withdrawing in good order to previously organised defensive lines, if your Ukrainian, is "collapsing".

Withdrawing to previously organised defensive lines, if your Russian is "failed Ukrainian offensive"

You need to learn to speak Vatnik.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Quoted the wrong post I think.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[barreness]

barreness : Ukraine front lines are collapsing ...
Visions : Really? Pray tell where? Have heard this many times in the last two years, its like a broken record. But hey, maybe this time its different. Give it your best shot.
barreness : Well I mean Mobbs went through more details in an earlier post ...

Just to clarify, here's what I said:
Probably you are referencing the conceded territory in Avdiivka > Ocherytne & Bakhmut > Chasov Yar. RF gained approx the same amount of territory than they lost during Ukraine's "failed" counter-offensive. They've now ground to a halt again after some territorial advance via Avdiivka. We watch closely to see what happens next.

Kharkiv/Sumy is a larger threat, tho it hasn't yet been commenced. Many troops are gathered there.

So let's expand on this topic:
Near Ocherytne, the RF have stopped advancing. They moved forward a fair bit over a couple of weeks, on the back of the Avdiivka gain They've taken about 3 empty fields in the last 3 days. Either they've stretched their wagon trail a bit thin and have to move the knots forward to catch up, or they've reached new defensive fortifications, or (my guess) is Ukraine have finally switched out the 115th who were a grossly inexperienced batallion that were making errors, for more adept divisions.

The 115th was actually there (failing to) defending Ocherytne region due to a rotation - previous more pro divs had been there a while and it was time to rest them via rotation. I haven't checked the maps out recently as my work has been insane this week & haven't had much time. I'll try to get more up to speed again.

This all comes down to resourcing. In this day and age, a "meatwave" approach should fail, due to the tech behind defensive lethal resources. But Ukraine had run low. They budgeted for resources that were suddenly yoiked away. Noting the issues in relying on allied support, they have been busy trying to produce their own but it takes time. When a place like Kramatorsk/Slovyansk becomes in danger, it will matter. Right now it doesn't matter so much, except in the news reports.

I said it before, and I'll repeat it. Ocherytne itself means nothing. What RF holding a vector out to Ocherytne might potentially enable, that's why it's of concern.

Over at Chasov Yar, RF basically failed in the same way the taking of Bakhmut & Avdiivka failed. Eventually taking these regions in 40 to 400 times the amount of time it should have taken, with 40 to 400 times the cost, is a failure. Chasov Yar was purely a badge to match a special day, just like Bakhmut was, and just like Avdiivka was. In each case, they missed the appointment. (Chasov Yar still hasn't been taken as of yesterday). {checks maps quickly} - still no movement (RF advanced around 5th May by about one treeline).

Thanks for the detailed work, where do you source your up to date maps btw?

Yes collapsing was hyperbolic, Kharkiv will be interesting as you say, massive city. Seems like they're probing, could stretch defences

 

[barreness]

Nah it really was. Prior the USSR, Ukraine was a republic is its own right.
Your map shows many true and weird waxes/wanes of the Ukraine over the years. Replace "given" with "conferred to" and it'd make more sense. These were generally all classically Ukrainian territories, based on the kingdoms which existed and the peoples which existed there. Kursk & Voronezh had also at one stage been "invited" to join the Ukrainian republic at one point. They obviously chose to not do so.
(Interesting note: Ukraine actually for some reason dropped out of the USSR for a couple of years later too, then 'went back in'. No idea why. Also there was a period where even the reds conferred some kind of odd independence upon the Ukraine SSR and again I don't know why they'd do that or if it meant anything - like a temporary bubble of demarcation oddness)

You are probably talking about the forcible control over Ukraine by Russia under Catherine the Great, including Crimea. This is true. Prior the independent Ukrainian body known as the People's Republic of Ukraine, between the late 1700s and the early 1900s, Russia generally controlled Ukraine as part of its empire. About 40- to 70- years after Muscovy rebranded as Russia. (or 40- to 70- years after Russia came into existence, depending on how you want to view it). So Ukraine was indeed a part of Russia dependent on semantics, for a bit over 100 years.

But Ukraine did become an independent republic in the period between the revolutions, give or take. This is fully documented.

I'll give you that, 1917-21 there was a declared Ukrainian republic. Could be viewed as part of the Russian civil war or the dragging out of WW1 with all the players in there, but semantics as you said

 

[wannabejack]

...

They would be Russian if that was the case. And we, and they, would refer to them as Russian, and where they lived would be a region (who's name we wouldn't know), of Russia.

They have long been a region conquered by the naturally imperialist Russian state. But they have never been Russian.

Like the Manchurians will never be Russian.

...

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

This could also be in reference to Ukraine.

 

[barreness]

Taking a few villages west of Donetsk does not constitute a collapse of the frontlines.

Yeh fair, I was hyperbolic. Looking forward though

What about the remaining 1000km of frontlines running north and further west which hasnt moved?

Think there's been many minor gains across various points on the fronts. At least that's been the reports for the last while

And Odesa? Now you’re trolling. They aren’t even fighting in that direction (apart from a few pesky Ukrainian soldiers causing the Russians issues over the river) and at this rate it will take the meatwave 150 years to get there.

If you could devise a military strategy to conquer it, you would be hired as a general by the Russian army.

And what would your strategy be? Please say naval landing, please say naval landing…

Yes only when the defensive effort has collapsed. With what navy lol, Ukraine hasn't quite gone blow all the bridges on retreat yet

 

[barreness]

They haven't long been a part of Russia.

They would be Russian if that was the case. And we, and they, would refer to them as Russian, and where they lived would be a region (who's name we wouldn't know), of Russia.

They have long been a region conquered by the naturally imperialist Russian state. But they have never been Russian.

Like the Manchurians will never be Russian.

The reason why Russia is a forever war state. The sheer number of "Russians" that are, and only remain, "Russian" by force or threat of force.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Well yeh I agree, you can be an ethnic group under the banner of a larger state

 

[Visions]

Withdrawing to previously organised defensive lines, if your Russian is "failed Ukrainian offensive"

You need to learn to speak Vatnik.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

No, Vatnik speak for this is either “a goodwill gesture” or “it was a feint.”