Reading the 2014 IPCC report and the 1.5 degree report https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
It is apparent that a massive issue is that of timescale.
The reports don’t really consider what is going to happen after 2100. They consider likely effects (and give degrees of confidence) for 1.5, 2 and 4 degree increases in average temperatures. If the increases are above 2 degrees by the end of this century, it is likely that they will continue to rise and have much more extreme effects. 2100 isn’t that far away. My children could reasonably expect to see the end of the century.
The average temperature has increased by 1 degree since industrialisation and has led to measurable changes in climate due to anthropogenic drivers.
This has already led to an increase in extreme weather events:
The likelihood is that extreme events will become more commonplace and more damaging.
The other problem with timescale is that of lag. The increased bushfires and droughts of Australia over the last few years is a result of a lack of action 20 years ago. No matter what policies are enacted, the temperature rise and associated effects will continue over the next 20 years, before being either mitigated or exacerbated depending on the effectiveness of policies being enacted now.
It is apparent that a massive issue is that of timescale.
The reports don’t really consider what is going to happen after 2100. They consider likely effects (and give degrees of confidence) for 1.5, 2 and 4 degree increases in average temperatures. If the increases are above 2 degrees by the end of this century, it is likely that they will continue to rise and have much more extreme effects. 2100 isn’t that far away. My children could reasonably expect to see the end of the century.
The average temperature has increased by 1 degree since industrialisation and has led to measurable changes in climate due to anthropogenic drivers.
This has already led to an increase in extreme weather events:
Effects of climate change
Climate change is already having visible effects on the world. The Earth is warming, rainfall patterns are changing, and sea levels are rising. These changes can increase the risk of heatwaves, floods, droughts, and fires.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
The likelihood is that extreme events will become more commonplace and more damaging.
The other problem with timescale is that of lag. The increased bushfires and droughts of Australia over the last few years is a result of a lack of action 20 years ago. No matter what policies are enacted, the temperature rise and associated effects will continue over the next 20 years, before being either mitigated or exacerbated depending on the effectiveness of policies being enacted now.