Toast The Renaissance of Ollie Wines

[RussellEbertHandball]

Ollie is more likely to win the ball at a centre bounce and his best work is done when feeding it out to the big 3 and others. He has a history of hack kicks to get a clearance.

Rozee is less likely to win the ball at a centre clearance, but his real plus is when he has the chance to turn on the jets after getting a handball received.

Its a case of Carr and co being able to read the momenteum of the game and change things up based on what the game situation is, and if a player is in the zone.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Ollie is more likely to win the ball at a centre bounce and his best work is done when feeding it out to the big 3 and others. He has a history of hack kicks to get a clearance.

Rozee is less likely to win the ball at a centre clearance, but his real plus is when he has the chance to turn on the jets after getting a handball received.

We really want Ollie setting everyone up from the inside and not doing too muck kicking and creative play.

Rozee is not a great outright centre clearance guy but is great at everything else. You don't want Rozee down in the pack but you do want him kicking into the F50.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

We really want Ollie setting everyone up from the inside and not doing too muck kicking and creative play.

Rozee is not a great outright centre clearance guy but is great at everything else. You don't want Rozee down in the pack but you do want him kicking into the F50.

Connor Rozee season average DE - 65.5%
Ollie Wines - 69.7%

I'm not suggesting wines is a better kick than Rozee, but I certainly think people overrated Rozees field kicking. He is just as much a bomb in hoper as Wines.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Connor Rozee season average DE - 65.5%
Ollie Wines - 69.7%

I'm not suggesting wines is a better kick than Rozee, but I certainly think people overrated Rozees field kicking. He is just as much a bomb in hoper as Wines.

Yeah, I've noticed you see Rozee that way but it is usually him and Butters who are up there for scoring involvements.

Butters is more the 30 metre type eyes down but Rozee is more the attacking 50 to 60 metre kick to advantage. You need both types of kicking into the F50.

 

[Powerage]

Connor Rozee season average DE - 65.5%
Ollie Wines - 69.7%

I'm not suggesting wines is a better kick than Rozee, but I certainly think people overrated Rozees field kicking. He is just as much a bomb in hoper as Wines.

As I have found out DE% can be deceiving.

• It doesn't distinguish between kicks and handballs.
• A 10m pass to your team mates advantage in space is indistinguishable from a 50m kick to your team mates advantage in the goalsquare. The same principle applies to handballs. This is why so many defenders such as Esava have a very high efficiency while midfielders and forwards often have a lower efficiency.

For what it is worth the team chart for 2024 shows that only 38% of Ollie's disposals are kicks, 58% of Connor's are kicks. Additionally Ollie's kicking efficiency is only 47% while Connor's is 54%.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

I don't know if you watch the games, Powerage, but Rozee is one of our best kicks into the F50 from long range and Wines is the last of the midfielders you want kicking into the F50.

Rozee would be an even better kick into F50 if we had a decent forward gameplan with leading forwards. His types of kicks would be great for that.

 

[Lefti93]

He finally resembled something of a Brownlow medalist. Good on him.

 

[yepits2020]

We have a habit of not using our player’s strengths. It is something I find perverse from our coaches

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Yeah, I've noticed you see Rozee that way but it is usually him and Butters who are up there for scoring involvements.

Butters is more the 30 metre type eyes down but Rozee is more the attacking 50 to 60 metre kick to advantage. You need both types of kicking into the F50.

Butters is an A grade kick into forward 50. Horne Francis is also an A grade kick i50. And Houston, Burton etc. Even Toddles.

Connor Rozee is a bomb and hoper. He is absolutely not the guy you want spotting up a leading target inside 50. He never does that. If you can show me some clips of him doing it I would be surprised.

He is the guy you want running inside 50 and kicking at goals, but that is a different skill set all together.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Butters is an A grade kick into forward 50. Horne Francis is also an A grade kick i50. And Houston, Burton etc. Even Toddles.

Connor Rozee is a bomb and hoper. He is absolutely not the guy you want spotting up a leading target inside 50. He never does that. If you can show me some clips of him doing it I would be surprised.

He is the guy you want running inside 50 and kicking at goals, but that is a different skill set all together.

He bombs it in because of the forward structure. He is 2 for scoring involvements just behind Butters and without the injuries, probably number 1.

He's not a bomb and hoper, he's a long kick to advantage. It's a weapon that should be used. Its insane to think otherwise.

 

[Powerage]

I don't know if you watch the games, Powerage, but Rozee is one of our best kicks into the F50 from long range and Wines is the last of the midfielders you want kicking into the F50.

Rozee would be an even better kick into F50 if we had a decent forward gameplan with leading forwards. His types of kicks would be great for that.

Did I say he wasn't? You misunderstood the post if that was your impression.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Connor Rozee season average DE - 65.5%
Ollie Wines - 69.7%

I'm not suggesting wines is a better kick than Rozee, but I certainly think people overrated Rozees field kicking. He is just as much a bomb in hoper as Wines.

Manipulating the data at WheeloRatings' site and setting the players position as midfield.

I have plucked the players and put them in as per their order in the rankings by average player ratings points.

The players I have chosen are not the top few in that list, just the players I'm interested to compare, but for example The Bont has 2nd highest rating 21.71pts behind Heeney 1st 22.09 and ahead of Nick Daicos 3rd 19.29pts who spend a lot of time in the forward line and back line respectively compared to The Bont, so that's why they both have a kicking efficiency of 67.4%, 10% more than the Bont.

I've selected blokes who are play mainly as inside mids. The first 10 I have listed are The Bont and players rated 4th to 12th.

Zak Butters is 9th with 16.79pts. Drew 23rd 14.12pts, Rozee 40th 12.85pts, JHF 45th 12.33pts and Wines 54th 11.64pts.

147 players have been defined as a Midfield under Wheelo's system. This includes players who played in Rd 9 except for Collingwood v WCE and Adelaide v Brisbane games.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Kicking Efficiency
Bontempelli... 57.4%
Matt Rowell... 58.8%
P Cripps........ 58.9%
Serong.......... 55.8%
Petracca........ 61.9%
Elliot Yeo....... 54.8%
Butters.......... 65.2%
Josh Kelly ...... 60.5%
Sam Walsh... 48.1%
Zach Merritt... 60.3%
Tom Green.... 56.6%
Chad Warner.. 54.3%
Errol Gulden... 56.5% - I'm a lot shocked by this.
Drew............. 58.9%
Dangerfield... 54.9%
Neale............ 64.4%
McCluggage.... 55.6%
Rozee............ 53.5%
Horne-Francis. 64.8%
Clayton Oliver.. 55.2%
Taranto.......... 49.3%
Wines............ 47.4%
Jordan Dawson 56.9%
Tom Mitchell... 62.2%
De Goey....,.... 42.3%

De Goey is 86th with 8.73pts.

Most players Handball efficiency is between 80% and 85% with a few between 75% and 79.9%.

You look at Wines and say 6% or 7%, or 10% isn't that much difference, but it all adds up. This is why Champion Data in February 2019 only rated him as an average player. Apart from 2021 his kicking efficiency hasn't really improved. I wrote about it in the Ollie Wines thread and quoted from the interview the Champion Data analyst did with Dwayne Russell. Here is the important part of what I quoted.

Player Watch - Pick #7 (2012) - Ollie Wines

I think this is a really fair assessment of Ollie. He wasn't great against Geelong though and was part of a midfield that got badly beaten. He had a number of desperate acts in the second half yesterday that were very important. His tackling was a real feature. He also seems to be using the...

www.bigfooty.com

Jacob Wilson - "Ollie Wines... might surprise people but he is in the average category,
- but what it is, he is an elite ball winner, we know he's an elite ball winner
he's a great contested player, but his kicking just kills him."

"So if you look at the players since he has come into the league, there's been
223 players that have had 1,000 kicks, he is the 2nd worst kick of that group.
The second worst."

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Manipulating the data at WheeloRatings' site and setting the players position as midfield.

I have plucked the players and put them in as per their order in the rankings by average player ratings points.

The players I have chosen are not the top few in that list, just the players I'm interested to compare, but for example The Bont has 2nd highest rating 21.71pts behind Heeney 1st 22.09 and ahead of Nick Daicos 3rd 19.29pts who spend a lot of time in the forward line and back line respectively compared to The Bont, so that's why they both have a kicking efficiency of 67.4%, 10% more than the Bont.

I've selected blokes who are play mainly as inside mids. The first 10 I have listed are The Bont and players rated 4th to 12th.

Zak Butters is 9th with 16.79pts. Drew 23rd 14.12pts, Rozee 40th 12.85pts, JHF 45th 12.33pts and Wines 54th 11.64pts.

147 players have been defined as a Midfield under Wheelo's system. This includes players who played in Rd 9 except for Collingwood v WCE and Adelaide v Brisbane games.

AFL Player Statistics

AFL player statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

Kicking Efficiency
Bontempelli... 57.4%
Matt Rowell... 58.8%
P Cripps........ 58.9%
Serong.......... 55.8%
Petracca........ 61.9%
Elliot Yeo....... 54.8%
Butters.......... 65.2%
Josh Kelly ...... 60.5%
Sam Walsh... 48.1%
Zach Merritt... 60.3%
Tom Green.... 56.6%
Chad Warner.. 54.3%
Errol Gulden... 56.5% - I'm a lot shocked by this.
Drew............. 58.9%
Dangerfield... 54.9%
Neale............ 64.4%
McCluggage.... 55.6%
Rozee............ 53.5%
Horne-Francis. 64.8%
Clayton Oliver.. 55.2%
Taranto.......... 49.3%
Wines............ 47.4%
Jordan Dawson 56.9%
Tom Mitchell... 62.2%
De Goey....,.... 42.3%

De Goey is 86th with 8.73pts.

Most players Handball efficiency is between 80% and 85% with a few between 75% and 79.9%.

You look at Wines and say 6% or 7%, or 10% isn't that much difference, but it all adds up. This is why Champion Data in February 2019 only rated him as an average player. Apart from 2021 his kicking efficiency hasn't really improved. I wrote about it in the Ollie Wines thread and quoted from the interview the Champion Data analyst did with Dwayne Russell. Here is the important part of what I quoted.

Player Watch - Pick #7 (2012) - Ollie Wines

I think this is a really fair assessment of Ollie. He wasn't great against Geelong though and was part of a midfield that got badly beaten. He had a number of desperate acts in the second half yesterday that were very important. His tackling was a real feature. He also seems to be using the...

www.bigfooty.com

Jacob Wilson - "Ollie Wines... might surprise people but he is in the average category,
- but what it is, he is an elite ball winner, we know he's an elite ball winner
he's a great contested player, but his kicking just kills him."

"So if you look at the players since he has come into the league, there's been
223 players that have had 1,000 kicks, he is the 2nd worst kick of that group.
The second worst."

He is, and should be a handball first player. But you are right, kicking de is a better comparison and Rozee is ahead in that metric clearly.

Butters and JHF are elite in that aspect comp wide. There is a gap between those two and Rozee. Rozee's sort of average or maybe slightly below average.

I feel like in general the players you would consider as top 5 in the comp are 55% + but it is all small margins.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

He is, and should be a handball first player. But you are right, kicking de is a better comparison and Rozee is ahead in that metric clearly.

Butters and JHF are elite in that aspect comp wide. There is a gap between those two and Rozee. Rozee's sort of average or maybe slightly below average.

I feel like in general the players you would consider as top 5 in the comp are 55% + but it is all small margins.

Ollie's handball efficiency is 83.6% which ranks him 49th of the 147 midfielders and his Kicking percentage of his total disposals is 38.4% which is the 9th lowest of the 147 midfielders.

Lower than Ollie is Tom Mitchell 2nd 30.8%, Matt Crouch 3rd 33.3%, Nat Fyfe 4th, Patrick Cripps 6th 36.1% and Lachie Neale 8th.

 

[Powerage]

He is, and should be a handball first player. But you are right, kicking de is a better comparison and Rozee is ahead in that metric clearly.

Butters and JHF are elite in that aspect comp wide. There is a gap between those two and Rozee. Rozee's sort of average or maybe slightly below average.

I feel like in general the players you would consider as top 5 in the comp are 55% + but it is all small margins.

KE% is a better metric for kicking, and REH's list looks around the mark. Still I feel it wouldn't necessarily tell the full story for those inside mids. Of the top of my head you would also have to factor in:

• pressure on the kicker
• degree of difficulty of the kick
• distancy of the kick
• pressure on the recipient.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

KE% is a better metric for kicking, and REH's list looks around the mark. Still I feel it wouldn't necessarily tell the full story for those inside mids. Of the top of my head you would also have to factor in:

• pressure on the kicker
• degree of difficulty of the kick
• distancy of the kick
• pressure on the recipient.

Distance of the kick is factored into kicking efficiency.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Wheelo stats generally favour super efficient players.

That's why Rozee is low and Butters is high.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Did I say he wasn't? You misunderstood the post if that was your impression.

Sorry mate, it was meant for JakeNeadeFan.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Wheelo stats generally favour super efficient players.

That's why Rozee is low and Butters is high.

Its not his stats, its Champion Data's ratings algorithm, they have had it since 2012, adjusted a bit every now and then, and Wheelo just has access to that and all their stats and puts them up on his stats site. He does Tennis and NBL stats as well.

What the Champion Data algorithm does, is punish you hard, for errors, especially free kicks, misses on shots on goal, and worse for no score with that shot and unforced errors and turnovers.

If you do what is expected, ie you are out in the open and kick it 30m to someone who is out in the open and takes an uncontested mark, then you score 0.0 ratings points because you were expected to achieve that. The kick is counted as a correct disposal/kick so if its your first kick for the game, you would have 100% kicking efficiency.

If you butchered the kick in the above example and put it out on the full, or caused a turnover, you get a rating of either a bit more, or a bit less than NEGATIVE 1.0. I have read the 2013 booklet and have it somewhere, but can't be arsed looking it up now.

 

[Malibu#27]

Quietly putting together a very good season ….

Amazing what happens when good players are injury free.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Its not his stats, its Champion Data's ratings algorithm, they have had it since 2012, adjusted a bit every now and then, and Wheelo just has access to that and all their stats and puts them up on his stats site. He does Tennis and NBL stats as well.

What the Champion Data algorithm does, is punish you hard, for errors, especially free kicks, misses on shots on goal, and worse for no score with that shot and unforced errors and turnovers.

If you do what is expected, ie you are out in the open and kick it 30m to someone who is out in the open and takes an uncontested mark, then you score 0.0 ratings points because you were expected to achieve that. The kick is counted as a correct disposal/kick so if its your first kick for the game, you would have 100% kicking efficiency.

If you butchered the kick in the above example and put it out on the full, or caused a turnover, you get a rating of either a bit more, or a bit less than NEGATIVE 1.0. I have read the 2013 booklet and have it somewhere, but can't be arsed looking it up now.

Yeah, I know.

It really favours guys who play within themselves like Jackson Mead was second best on ground according to Champion Data.

And guys who take the game on is usually put them down the pecking order.

Player rating is a good stat but like any algorithm, it is some problems that go with it.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Yeah, I know.

It really favours guys who play within themselves like Jackson Mead was second best on ground according to Champion Data.

And guys who take the game on is usually put them down the pecking order.

Player rating is a good stat but like any algorithm, it is some problems that go with it.

This isn't how it works.

The player ratings are derived based on how each act contributes to (expected) score. So if you have many 'safe' disposals which don't result in score then you will not get a good rating.

That is why Matt Crouch is not highly rated. Lots of safe sideways disposals.

Alternatively if you can execute risky plays which result in lots of score you will get a good rating.

That is why Zak Butters is rated off the charts.

Mead didn't 'play within himself', he was just good.

Yeah there are problems with player ratings. It undervalued defenders because what they do cannot be statistically captured.

But it is significantly better than most alternatives.

 

[Powerage]

Distance of the kick is factored into kicking efficiency.

How? I would have thought a kick is either efficient or it isn't. They don't get a score out of 10.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

How? I would have thought a kick is either efficient or it isn't. They don't get a score out of 10.

A kick of less than 40m has to be retained by a teammate to be considered efficient.

A kick of greater than 40m is considered efficient if possession is retained by a teammate OR if its to a 50/50 contest.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

This isn't how it works.

The player ratings are derived based on how each act contributes to (expected) score. So if you have many 'safe' disposals which don't result in score then you will not get a good rating.

That is why Matt Crouch is not highly rated. Lots of safe sideways disposals.

Alternatively if you can execute risky plays which result in lots of score you will get a good rating.

That is why Zak Butters is rated off the charts.

Mead didn't 'play within himself', he was just good.

Yeah there are problems with player ratings. It undervalued defenders because what they do cannot be statistically captured.

But it is significantly better than most alternatives.Some of wht you have explained is supposedly what they changed last year

Some of what you have written is what Champion Data added / adjusted to their algorithm last year, but it didn't star off that way. They have added to the points you get for play that causes a score, but if you do stuff you are expected to achieve, you don't get any ratings points.