Opinion Stephen Wells

[Pure_Ownage]

The point is that there are only a handful of players in the 2018 draft that were likely to help Geelong in 2019, same as every draft every year. You could've got one of the King twins with the fabled top 10 pick and they'd be playing VFL. It's not really an argument for not trading Kelly. Sometimes you get lucky with a player that's ready to go at 18 and sometimes you draft mature agers but player for pick trades are rarely viewed on a one year window alone. 100% Geelong's prerogative to not trade their player but output of any draftees in 2019 would have been a very minor consideration.

I dont disagree with any of that but Geelong took a calculated gamble that they were in flag contention and Kelly would give them more towards that in 2019 than any player they drafted with the picks you offered (again purely on what that draftee would have done in 2019 only) and they were prepared to risk potentially getting less in a trade for Kelly 12 months later to do this. So far Geelong's ladder position and how open the comp is this year would suggest Geelong made the right decision regardless of what happens at the end of this year with Kelly.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

He's been good, yes. Unbelievable is pushing it but semantics.

The point is that if replacing Kelly for 2019 was a driver then Stephen Wells wouldn't have asked for a top 10 pick. He would've asked for a ready made player or just said 'Nope'.

Not really, top 10 picks give you the most likely chance of a draftee being ready for year one impact and they also give you the most capital to on trade for immediate impact players (for example Geelong may have said get us a pick that we know we can on trade for Shiel or a similar player or we're not dealing etc). You're assuming a lot about what Geelong was or was not doing behind the scenes.

 

[Scotland]

I dont disagree with any of that but Geelong took a calculated gamble that they were in flag contention and Kelly would give them more towards that in 2019 than any player they drafted with the picks you offered (again purely on what that draftee would have done in 2019 only) and they were prepared to risk potentially getting less in a trade for Kelly 12 months later to do this. So far Geelong's ladder position and how open the comp is this year would suggest Geelong made the right decision regardless of what happens at the end of this year with Kelly.

I accept the gamble, but I don't accept that maximising trade value was about this year. It's possibly the last year of Ablett-Dangerfield-Selwood and definitely the last year of that trio plus Kelly for no cap space, so a one year tilt is worth it - just don't squeal like stuck pigs if Kelly asks to leave and you get a lot less than you could have last year.

Not really, top 10 picks give you the most likely chance of a draftee being ready for year one impact and they also give you the most capital to on trade for immediate impact players (for example Geelong may have said get us a pick that we know we can on trade for Shiel or a similar player or we're not dealing etc). You're assuming a lot about what Geelong was or was not doing behind the scenes.

I don't agree with that at all. A lot of AFL ready players in the U/18s slide outside the top 10 because recruiters focus on project players over physical beasts. Not every pick 1 is Sam Walsh who is just a gun from day 1. Someone like Quinten Lynch smashed the U/18s as a man child then went undrafted. Jaidyn Stephenson won the Rising Star last year but the best performed player was Tim Kelly, drafted at pick 24 at age 23. The best 3 so far from the 2018 draft are probably Walsh (1), Rozee (5) and Duursma (18). Jack Ross is doing pretty well and was pick 43, Parker a late pick mature ager.

I'm happy in my 'assumptions'. The subject of this very thread does drafting the same way pretty much everyone else does. Best available early then by needs from 20 or so onward. And Shiel only ever wanted Hawthorn. Hence he is at Essendon.

 

[dazbroncos]

Luv how this is just another TK thread now...

No mention of getting Miers at 57, Chook at 36, Tommy Stewart at 40...

Picking Gold yet when he it comes to TK he allegedly "got it wrong" and overvalued TK lol

Go Catters

 

[Warhorse]

The big ones are Kelly and Stewart. Amazing pickups. He did have a few lean years though (thurlow over Grundy still makes me angry)

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The big ones are Kelly and Stewart. Amazing pickups. He did have a few lean years though (thurlow over Grundy still makes me angry)

And Menegola and Atkins etc. Henry Blicavs etc etc.

He kills it with late picks bc he goes for guys who have deficiencies that are fixable and who have the drive and work ethic to overcome them.

15-20 picks are harder bc those picks are too early to go truly left field and you are often picking guys who have fallen out of the top 10 due to injury. Most of those ones we had failed due to injury (even Thurlow is a good example) he really hasnt picked any R1 player who didnt have the talent to frank it except Darcy Lang.

 

[Chaisa]

Watching them play it's crazy it took 5 years for Stewart and Kelly to be drafted. Surely talent of that quality should've risen to the top easily.

 

[Obeanie1]

Luv how this is just another TK thread now...

No mention of getting Miers at 57, Chook at 36, Tommy Stewart at 40...

Picking Gold yet when he it comes to TK he allegedly "got it wrong" and overvalued TK lol

Go Catters

So much for later picks being rubbish picks then! Never mind 2nd round picks being rubbish.

 

[dazbroncos]

So much for later picks being rubbish picks then! Never mind 2nd round picks being rubbish.

You cant be stupid enough to suggest what Wells does with later picks being equivalent to the value of a players worth in a free market trade.

Wells ability to find quality in later picks does not mean Tim Kelly is worth less. You cannot be the stupid. You just cant.

GO Catters

 

[Obeanie1]

You cant be stupid enough to suggest what Wells does with later picks being equivalent to the value of a players worth in a free market trade.

Wells ability to find quality in later picks does not mean Tim Kelly is worth less. You cannot be the stupid. You just cant.

GO Catters

You can't be that stupid to totally miss the point can you?

Well actually it looks like you are that stupid.

The crack I was having was to all the Geelong nuff nuff posters (and there are quite a few) who get on their soap boxes and are adamant that 2nd round and later picks are rubbish picks and worthless.

Nothing to do with what Kelly is worth. Just making the point as I have previously that picks outside the 1st round are valuable and not "rubbish".

How is that last top 10 pick at the Cats going BTW?

 

[dazbroncos]

You can't be that stupid to totally miss the point can you?

Well actually it looks like you are that stupid.

The crack I was having was to all the Geelong nuff nuff posters (and there are quite a few) who get on their soap boxes and are adamant that 2nd round and later picks are rubbish picks and worthless.

Nothing to do with what Kelly is worth. Just making the point as I have previously that picks outside the 1st round are valuable and not "rubbish".

How is that last top 10 pick at the Cats going BTW?

Second round picks for TK are rubbish. Can't help stupid clearly.

As for Cocky - he's recovering well from his spider bite, contact PCL injury and tonsillectomy as the last 3 injuries he's had - thanks for asking. Looks to back in about 4 weeks playing VFL.

GO Catters

 

[Obeanie1]

Second round picks for TK are rubbish. Can't help stupid clearly.

As for Cocky - he's recovering well from his spider bite, contact PCL injury and tonsillectomy as the last 3 injuries he's had - thanks for asking. Looks to back in about 4 weeks playing VFL.

GO Catters

Stupid is totally misinterpreting a post and calling others stupid due to your lack of intelligence.

Still not getting it after having this explained to you and twisting things to suit your own agenda......well that the next level of stupid. And thats exactly what you are doing.

Again my post has nothing to do with Kelly's value. Its all about the value of picks outside the 1st round.

But you trott off on your little tangent that has nothing to do with the point I was n
Making.

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

Stupid is totally misinterpreting a post and calling others stupid due to your lack of intelligence.

Still not getting it after having this explained to you and twisting things to suit your own agenda......well that the next level of stupid. And thats exactly what you are doing.

Again my post has nothing to do with Kelly's value. Its all about the value of picks outside the 1st round.

But you trott off on your little tangent that has nothing to do with the point I was n
Making.

He is from Geelong after all. So it is to be expected lol