Roast St Kilda in no mans land

[PJays]

Marvel is your home ground, so it's not neutral territory.

You're correct but only in a trivial, inconsequential sense

I don't consider Marvel to be anyone's home ground in a true, relevant sense. Not in the same way that, say, KP is Geelong's home ground or the Gabba is Brisbane's home ground.

1. Because 5 or 6 teams host games at Marvel, every single AFL team plays there multiple times a year. Historically Geelong played there 4 or 5 times a year. (In recent years it's decreased because Carlton and Essendon have shifted to hosting Geelong at the MCG. St Kilda is now hosting an MCG game every year too, although probably won't ever host Geelong there).

When St Kilda plays in Geelong, it's a once- every-two- years event. When Geelong comes to Marvel, they're playing a venue most of their players have played at 10 or 15 times. And historically that would've been 20 or 25 times.

But more importantly...

2. "Home" advantage is more about crowd than anything else. The covid era demonstrated this empirically. With half of Geelong's fan base living in Melbourne, if St Kilda hosts Geelong at Marvel, there's 20-25K St Kilda fans and 10-15k Geelong fans in attendance. Minimal advantage when both teams have strong support.

This is the same reason say, North, St Kilda or the Dogs don't have a meaningful advantage when hosting Collingwood etc at Marvel.

In my view St Kilda has their first genuine, meaningful "home" game next week- in round 10. We'll have overwhelming crowd support for the first time. Covid era demonstrated that is the key factor in home advantage.

 

[VinnieB]

You're correct but only in a trivial, inconsequential sense

I don't consider Marvel to be anyone's home ground in a true, relevant sense. For two reasons.

1. Because 5 or 6 teams host games at Marvel, every single AFL team plays there multiple times a year. Historically Geelong played there 4 or 5 times a year. (In recent years it's decreased because Carlton and Essendon have shifted to hosting Geelong at the MCG. St Kilda is now hosting an MCG game every year too, although probably won't ever host Geelong there).

When St Kilda plays in Geelong, it's a once- every-two- years event. When Geelong comes to Marvel, they're playing a venue most of their players have played at 10 or 15 times. And historically that would've been 20 or 25 times.

But more importantly...

2. "Home" advantage is more about crowd than anything else. The covid era demonstrated this empirically. With half of Geelong's fan base living in Melbourne, if St Kilda hosts Geelong at Marvel, there's 20-25K St Kilda fans and 10-15k Geelong fans in attendance. Minimal advantage when both teams have strong support.

This is the same reason say, North, St Kilda or the Dogs don't have a meaningful advantage when hosting Collingwood etc at Marvel.

In my view St Kilda has their first genuine, meaningful "home" game next week- in round 10. We'll have overwhelming crowd support for the first time. Covid era demonstrated that is the key factor in home advantage.

That’s no different to the MCG.
You’re making a lot of excuses.

A ‘home’ ground is now based on crowd support?

 

[PJays]

A ‘home’ ground is now based on crowd support?

Home advantage is mostly based on crowd support, yes.

 

[VinnieB]

Home advantage is mostly based on crowd support, yes.

So you wouldn’t have many home games each year. Nor would many other smaller membership bases when playing against traditionally the big clubs.
I think not taking into consideration the actual ground is complete rubbish.

The Pies for instance play Marvel very poorly. Yet, we probably have more supporters at the ground. I think Richmond were similar during their run which is why Hardwick hated playing there.

 

[Great8]

Our coach is fine

Really?
I’d say he is your number 1 problem.
Staggering how many Saints fans blame everyone down to the boot studder and tea lady but absolve Lyon of any blame. The bloke is a charlatan

 

[carnthedons]

You're correct but only in a trivial, inconsequential sense

I don't consider Marvel to be anyone's home ground in a true, relevant sense. Not in the same way that, say, KP is Geelong's home ground or the Gabba is Brisbane's home ground.

1. Because 5 or 6 teams host games at Marvel, every single AFL team plays there multiple times a year. Historically Geelong played there 4 or 5 times a year. (In recent years it's decreased because Carlton and Essendon have shifted to hosting Geelong at the MCG. St Kilda is now hosting an MCG game every year too, although probably won't ever host Geelong there).

When St Kilda plays in Geelong, it's a once- every-two- years event. When Geelong comes to Marvel, they're playing a venue most of their players have played at 10 or 15 times. And historically that would've been 20 or 25 times.

But more importantly...

2. "Home" advantage is more about crowd than anything else. The covid era demonstrated this empirically. With half of Geelong's fan base living in Melbourne, if St Kilda hosts Geelong at Marvel, there's 20-25K St Kilda fans and 10-15k Geelong fans in attendance. Minimal advantage when both teams have strong support.

This is the same reason say, North, St Kilda or the Dogs don't have a meaningful advantage when hosting Collingwood etc at Marvel.

In my view St Kilda has their first genuine, meaningful "home" game next week- in round 10. We'll have overwhelming crowd support for the first time. Covid era demonstrated that is the key factor in home advantage.

By that logic we’ve had 1 home game which was yesterday and are 7-1-2. 4 interstate games against home interstate teams (not Brisbane in Adelaide), Hawks and Pies at the G, Dogs and Saints at Docklands.

 

[mattwa]

The youngsters are overrated. Phillipou is and will be a huge bust. Is like a giraffe on an ice rink. Darcy Wilson and Owen's are good. King is no good don't think he will ever be that superstar forward unfortunately

 

[PJays]

So you wouldn’t have many home games each year. Nor would many other smaller membership bases when playing against traditionally the big clubs.

Yes, this is true,

It's interesting how, collectively, Marvel teams have underachieved- Since 2000 only 2 flags in 120 seasons, and less finals appearances than average.

But the link with home advantage is clearer when reviewing wooden spoons. Having only ~5 true home games a year diminishes the possibilities of winning when you're a bottom team. Compared to say West Coast this year who'll have 10 or 11 true home games. Much easier to snatch 5 or 6 wins. I think this is a huge reason why Carlton and North Melbourne have won so many spoons in recent years.

Since 1999, the last 25 seasons, interstate teams won 9 spoons and Melbourne teams won 16.

But of those 9, 1 was during covid and 3 were entry clubs GWS and GC.

So only 5 or 6 real wooden spoons in over 20 years to teams who have double the amount of genuine home games.

That isn't a coincidence.

I think not taking into consideration the actual ground is complete rubbish.

I take it into consideration but I believe crowd support is more important than ground familiarity or travel beforehand.

Plenty of international studies were done during covid, analysing hundreds/ thousands of sporting games and demonstrating the impact of crowd support.

In Geelongs case, only a small sample size but they played 3 games at Kardinia Park during covid without crowds... and lost 2 of them.

 

[phantom13]

I’d just like to point out that PJays does not represent all of us saints supporters… a decent chunk of eternal optimists and apologists but not all of us.

 

[PJays]

As bad as the first 9 weeks have been, it's got nothing on the first 10 weeks of 2021. So if people are criticising Lyon for a crappy 2nd year so far, I'd suggest his 2nd year's going better than his predecessor's at the same point.

 

[PJays]

I’d just like to point out that PJays does not represent all of us saints supporters… a decent chunk of eternal optimists and apologists but not all of us.

Feel free to point out anything I've said that isn't factual or reasonable.

My comment that, if we were a big club we'd be 5-4 instead of 3-6 with all other things being equal, is a comment based on data around Geelong and Hawthorn's performances at Kardinia Park and Launceston.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

you have toothless forward line, max king

12

Max King

Age

23

Ht

202cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

1star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.6

3star

G

1.4

5star

does not look comfortable, higgins is rubbed out for another fortnight & 4 others who rarely impact. contending sides (essendon included now lol) don’t win games by kicking less than 10 goals

 

[phantom13]

Feel free to point out anything I've said that isn't factual or reasonable.

My comment that, if we were a big club we'd be 5-4 instead of 3-6 with all other things being equal, is a comment based on data around Geelong and Hawthorn's performances at Kardinia Park and Launceston.

It’s also about as useful as saying if we’d been founded in Collingwood and wore black and white stripes we’d have more flags.

 

[PJays]

It’s also about as useful as saying if we’d been founded in Collingwood and wore black and white stripes we’d have more flags.

No it's not. It adds perspective that people miss. Data driven perspective.

People are carrying on like St Kilda's had an abysmal start to the year. Not true, we've lost 5 games by 10 points or less and we've had a tough fixture. By the end of this weekend, we'll have played 5 of the top 8. How many other clubs can say the same?

The KP and Launceston part is important to understanding the fixture as well.

Abysmal would be 2-7. Or 3-6 and getting belted every week. Or 3-6 with an easier fixture.

 

[Mesc]

People are wowing and laughing at this.

It's pretty straightforward. Playing at KP is worth more than 8 points to Geelong and playing in Launceston worth more than 5 points to Hawthorn.

The numbers don't lie.

Therefore, all other things being equal, Saints win those games if they're in Melbourne.

Being a small club has disadvantages. You make finals but still get sent to the tough grounds. We'd probably be 5-4 instead of 3-6 if we had a "big club" fixture.

What about the interstate clubs? Your point makes no sense.

 

[PJays]

I’d just like to point out that PJays does not represent all of us saints supporters… a decent chunk of eternal optimists and apologists but not all of us.

For the record I'm not an "apologist"

I agree with this thread's proposition. St Kilda's been a middle rung team for most of the past decade, and will be again this year. That's textbook no man's land.

I just get sick of the hot takes when there's a bad loss

"Lyon's a spud"

"They should start tanking"

"They're headed for bottom 4"

Etc

I try to inject rationality into the discussion. That doesn't make me an "apologist" or an "eternal optimist"

 

[PJays]

What about the interstate clubs? Your point makes no sense.

I was comparing St Kilda to big Melbourne clubs.

Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn, Essendon. If they make finals they aren't sent to KP or York the following year.

Interstate clubs are a different discussion with a range of different factors influencing their fixturing compared to Melbourne clubs. Some advantageous, some not.

 

[Red Bull]

No man’s land with Tassie on the horizon is a frightening prospect.
Saints supporters have endured more than any others throughout their history, they’re a resilient lot … and they’ll need to be … again …

 

[StCicatriz]

Ratts has been shafted twice now. Just to be replaced by a few dinosaurs who should've been left in 2010.

He absolutely can coach. Even got this terrible North group humming last year.

You're in denial

 

[WillHayward]

Better off just opting for rebuild and having a bottom 3 finish this season. Play some kids. Get a high pick.

The Lyon low scoring game plane is putrid. Putrid to watch and not effective.