List Mgmt. Squad post rebuild > finals push 2024

[Viva la Mattner]

** if similar thread exists mods please merge

It’s a long post so bear with me wink

With this coming draft period and 1 more to hopefully seal our rebuild plan how do we see our squad looking come 2023/24 as your hopeful/predicted best 22?
Add in any potential recruits you think we may obtain etc..

come 2024 I think below can contend, a few * in there

* I think we throw kitchen sink at Luko end of 2022

* Likely to draft Roberts

* Grundy... his salary will be a noose around Collingwood, come next couple of years the Daicos boys etc will be after more $$ salary dump time again and we swoop (yes wishful thinking )

- potentially go hard at Rankine too, but I see us having Lukosious as preference- if the unlikely happened and we got both then Rankine replaces Newchurch


Hopeful team 2024



FF: Newchurch - Thilthorpe- Fogarty



HF: McHenry - Lukosious**- Milera



C: Cook - Laird- Sholl



HB: Doedee- McAsey- Smith



FB: Jones - Butts - Hamill



R: Grundy*- Roberts*- Pedlar



INT: Hately- Berry- Schoenberg - Worrell



**subject to recruitment



Others in squad envisage on list still:



O’Connor

McAdam

Draper *

Keays

Murphy

Kelly

Seedsman

Brown

Hinge

Murray

Rowe

O’Brien

Dudley

O’Loughlin



Gone from current list

M.Crouch - FA

Sloane - retire

Walker - retire

Talia - retire

Mackay - retire

Frampton- delist

Lynch- trade/FA

Himmelberg- delist/trade

Borlase- delist

McPherson- delist

Davis - delist

Gollant - delist

Strachan - delist

Parnell - delist

 

[Golumless]

Grundy is not only wishful thinking, but it's bad thinking. Let it be the noose that hurts Collingwood, unless they're willing to give us a bounty to get rid of him.

That said, we're certainly an intriguing side at the moment. No real expectations and good amount of kids with a splattering of prospects to build around is a nice place to be in a rebuild.

So where are we at, trying to just go off AFL performances? Italics denotes anyone I don't have high confidence in being there (either I rate them but they haven't performed at an AFL level yet, or I think they're in strife, but they're best 22 now).

B: McPherson - Butts - Doedee
HB: Hamill - McAsey - Parnell
C: Sholl - Schoenberg - Jones
HF: McHenry - Thilthorpe - Rowe
FF: Gollant - Fogarty - Newchurch
R: O'Brien - Pedlar - Berry
Int: Keays - Laird - Cook - Worrell

Would be where I have it at the moment.

It's really a case of we have 5 kids to build around at the moment and a lot of unknowns. Plus McHenry who I feel genuinely confident that he'll become a valuable piece on that half forward flank, maybe even mid/forward once all is said and done.

 

[Interloperer]

If the club isn't in a strong finals position (contending for home final week 1) in 2023, it's a failed rebuild.

 

[Scorpus]

If the club isn't in a strong finals position (contending for home final week 1) in 2023, it's a failed rebuild.

Nope. Making finals for the first time in 2025 is more realistic

 

[1990crow]

The key to our rebuild for mine will be what we do when we aren't anchored to the bottom. Any decent recruiter will utilise top 3 picks.. well I hope so anyway.

It's when we move into that 12th to 14th range that will be the make or break.
Do we trade a pick 5 to Gold Coast to Lukosius, or find a way to get Rankine, or continue the rebuild with another couple of top line mids and be patient.

I don't have the answer to that question. Both could be right.

 

[Interloperer]

Nope. Making finals for the first time in 2025 is more realistic

where are the players going to come from?

Not planning to be good until 2025 requires replacing the majority of the current top 10 of the squad, succesfully developing every current recruit, nailing every single future draft pick, convincing currently new players who become good players to stick around after 7 consecutive terrible seasons, and trying to convince good players from other teams to join a Crows team that has been garbage since 2018.

 

[Scorpus]

where are the players going to come from?

Not planning to be good until 2025 requires replacing the majority of the current top 10 of the squad, succesfully developing every current recruit, nailing every single future draft pick, convincing currently new players who become good players to stick around after 7 consecutive terrible seasons, and trying to convince good players from other teams to join a Crows team that has been garbage since 2018.

Yep that's basically right. All of our senior players from today (Smith, Seedsman, Sloane, Walker, etc.) will be long gone and guys like Laird might still be there.

It's not about not planning to be good until 2025, it's about the reality that when you finish last you are miles off it. Miles. It will take a decade to be in flag contention

 

[Golumless]

where are the players going to come from?

Not planning to be good until 2025 requires replacing the majority of the current top 10 of the squad, succesfully developing every current recruit, nailing every single future draft pick, convincing currently new players who become good players to stick around after 7 consecutive terrible seasons, and trying to convince good players from other teams to join a Crows team that has been garbage since 2018.

Most of our list + the next two drafts?

2025 has Schoenberg and Sholl at 23-25, Thilthorpe, Berry and Pedlar at 22-24 + whoever we draft below them. All are more importantly entering that magical 100 game bracket as well.

We probably don't want to be bottom 4 for much longer, but rebuilds do take a while. Especially in our situation where we really hit the reset button.

 

[Interloperer]

Yep that's basically right. All of our senior players from today (Smith, Seedsman, Sloane, Walker, etc.) will be long gone and guys like Laird might still be there.

It's not about not planning to be good until 2025, it's about the reality that when you finish last you are miles off it.

Right, and the reality is that is a failure, you may as well scrap whatever, if any, "rebuilding" plans they're currently executing and start again. To be fair, if the club were to make some Sanderson-esque call on Nicks et al, right now then I'd approve (although the required fixes for the club are above his station.)

Most of our list + the next two drafts?

2025 has Schoenberg and Sholl at 23-25, Thilthorpe, Berry and Pedlar at 22-24 + whoever we draft below them. All are more importantly entering that magical 100 game bracket as well.

We probably don't want to be bottom 4 for much longer, but rebuilds do take a while. Especially in our situation where we really hit the reset button.

What's the guarantee that they will all be AFL standard, let alone the near-All Australian standard of the players they are replacing. *AND* that they will want to stay at the club at that point? Pedlar hasn't even played a game yet.

 

[ABAB]

Right, and the reality is that is a failure, you may as well scrap whatever, if any, "rebuilding" plans they're currently executing and start again. To be fair, if the club were to make some Sanderson-esque call on Nicks et al, right now then I'd approve (although the required fixes for the club are above his station.)

What's the guarantee that they will all be AFL standard, let alone the near-All Australian standard of the players they are replacing. *AND* that they will want to stay at the club at that point? Pedlar hasn't even played a game yet.

There is no guarantee which is the whole point of list development and our development has always been very good. We've built a list to contend for the premiership every 6 years without bottoming out but this rebuild will take longer given we did the major list cut after CM to bottom out so this wasn't a smooth transition of the list like we did previously and worst time to bottom out given COVID-19 so missed out on an entire year of development, hence this will likely take another a few years longer.

We entered this season unsure of our list, hence why Kane Cornes said this was the worst Crows list ever but even he has change his tone in recent time as he can see the young players coming through so I'm more confident after this season we are definitely heading in the right direction.

 

[Golumless]

What's the guarantee that they will all be AFL standard, let alone the near-All Australian standard of the players they are replacing. *AND* that they will want to stay at the club at that point? Pedlar hasn't even played a game yet.

I'd argue Sholl has already exceeded Atkins as a player, who was probably the best winger we've had in the last decade. Yes, that says more about how much we've struggled to find good wingers in the past decade.

Beyond that though, there isn't any guarantee, but there is never a guarantee for anything will work. Right now, there is a core of players who look like they'll become that (Thilthorpe, Berry, Schoenberg, Butts and Sholl) and we're building around that + whoever we draft in the next year or two, or whoever forces their way into that group. That said, they're likely not making any noise with us getting into finals until 2024-5, which is roughly the point that group gets to 70-90 games.

The game is really finding others to include in that young core for the next two years. I have Pedlar earmarked as a likely candidate to join them once he's deemed ready to go. I don't feel too particularly confident about the rest of the list yet.

 

[pjcrows]

If the club isn't in a strong finals position (contending for home final week 1) in 2023, it's a failed rebuild.

Ridiculous.

 

[Golumless]

There is no guarantee which is the whole point of list development and our development has always been very good. We've built a list to contend for the premiership every 6 years without bottoming out but this rebuild will take longer given we did the major list cut after CM to bottom out so this wasn't a smooth transition of the list like we did previously and worst time to bottom out given COVID-19 so missed out on an entire year of development, hence this will likely take another few years longer.

We entered this season unsure of our list, hence why Kane Cornes said this was the worst Crows list ever but even he has change his tone in recent time as he can see the young players coming through so I'm more confident after this season we are heading in the right direction.

No. It was fantastic whilst Noble was GM, but we lost that during Burtons reign as he truly wrecked up the place. A cursory glance at our first-round pick record tells you how bad our development systems ended up. First-round picks are all about the development system you have seeing no matter who you get, you're very likely to have someone who could be an AFL player in terms of traits (and we did, Gallucci, Fogarty, Jones, McAsey, McHenry, Milera, Doedee, Lever all had an AFL level game in them). Unless a recruiter is going off the deep end and picking genuine unknowns year in year out (which we weren't, contrary to popular belief).

I'm confident we're on the mend with how this season has gone, so far at least. That said, it's a long road back to where we were at.

 

[Cap]

Nope. Making finals for the first time in 2025 is more realistic

Garbage. That's just Bigfooty ultra negativity.

2023 will see a large whack of players hitting 50+ games

If we aren't pushing finals 2023 Nick's will need to be moved on.

 

[Golumless]

Garbage. That's just Bigfooty ultra negativity.

2023 will see a large whack of players hitting 50+ games

If we aren't pushing finals 2023 Nick's will need to be moved on.

You want 70-80, not 50 for your core players.

We should be comfortably mid-table by 2023 and looking like we're trending upwards. Development is not linear, and it's quite likely we're going to hit a pothole somewhere. Probably will be mid-table in 2024, just due to it being a difficult hurdle to clear for a young group (Fremantle is a good example of that currently).

 

[Mego Red]

You want 70-80, not 50 for your core players.

We should be comfortably mid-table by 2023 and looking like we're trending upwards. Development is not linear, and it's quite likely we're going to hit a pothole somewhere. Probably will be mid-table in 2024, just due to it being a difficult hurdle to clear for a young group (Fremantle is a good example of that currently).

Brisbane is the reverse example. Sometimes it clicks.

Personally, I think we'll be very competitive and improve again next year, and we'll be pushing for finals in 2023. Not sure if we make them, but we absolutely should be in the conversation.

 

[ABAB]

No. It was fantastic whilst Noble was GM, but we lost that during Burtons reign as he truly wrecked up the place. A cursory glance at our first-round pick record tells you how bad our development got. First-round picks are all about the development system you have seeing no matter who you get, you're very likely to have someone who could be an AFL player in terms of traits. Unless a recruiter is going off the deep end and picking genuine unknowns year in year out (which we weren't, contrary to popular belief).

I'm confident we're on the mend with how this season has gone. That said, it certainly hangs by a knifedge and we could quickly regress back into the wasteland we became.

We are still finding elite good players with late 1st rounders in Doedee and gun youngsters with late picks in Sholl and Schoenberg, Hamill (who hasn't kicked on this season) and Berry are looking as very good late picks, O'Brien and Butts were both rookie picks, McHenry and Fogarty are developing to the 1st rounders players we expected, McAsey is also developing nicely in the SANFL, Thilthrope was always going to be a gun player so the development is still there.

Gallucci was a bust but that was a Pyke decision and the reason was more around his lack of effort to be able to run both way which was why he wasn't selected even as a rookie by other clubs after we delisted him and the jury isn't out on Jones.

 

[Scorpus]

Garbage. That's just Bigfooty ultra negativity.

2023 will see a large whack of players hitting 50+ games

If we aren't pushing finals 2023 Nick's will need to be moved on.

No it's not, these are the actual facts about a rebuild.

The average amount of years it takes between when a club first reaches the bottom 4 on the way to a spoon, to making finals again, is 5 years.

We first made the bottom 4 in 2020. We should be aiming for finals in 2025. If you are expecting a spoon side to make finals 3 years later you will be extremely disappointed because that rarely happens

 

[Cap]

You want 70-80, not 50 for your core players.

We should be comfortably mid-table by 2023 and looking like we're trending upwards. Development is not linear, and it's quite likely we're going to hit a pothole somewhere. Probably will be mid-table in 2024, just due to it being a difficult hurdle to clear for a young group (Fremantle is a good example of that currently).

Out likely core is going to be Keays, Laird, Crouch, Seedsman and sadly Sloane.

Our developing mids of Shoenberg et Al will be the ones hitting 50+, meaning they all things being equal should be pushing the team towards finals in 2023

All good things being equal of course

 

[Scorpus]

Brisbane is the reverse example. Sometimes it clicks.

Brisbane first hit the bottom 4 in 2014 and stayed there for five consecutive years including a spoon year. It took them five years to make finals

Yes, from finishing 18th to 2nd they took 2 years, but it was built on the back of accumulating lower picks for a longer period

 

[Cap]

No it's not, these are the actual facts about a rebuild.

The average amount of years it takes between when a club first reaches the bottom 4 on the way to a spoon, to making finals again, is 5 years.

We first made the bottom 4 in 2020. We should be aiming for finals in 2025. If you are expecting a spoon side to make finals 3 years later you will be extremely disappointed because that rarely happens

I said pushing for finals. We may not make them, but we should be missing out my a game or two.

Not out of it come midseason like we are now

 

[Scorpus]

I said pushing for finals. We may not make them, but we should be missing out my a game or two.

Not out of it come midseason like we are now

I think in 2023 if we are out of the bottom 4 and in the 9-13 range we will be doing well.

The original post I responded to was calling a home final in 2023 the pass mark, which won't happen

 

[Mego Red]

Brisbane first hit the bottom 4 in 2014 and stayed there for five consecutive years including a spoon year. It took them five years to make finals

Yes, from finishing 18th to 2nd they took 2 years, but it was built on the back of accumulating lower picks for a longer period

Brisbane Lions were last in 2017, and their 2018 is very similar to our 2021. Close games often lost, very competitive throughout the season. They made finals in 2019, which most thought was a surprise. We won't next year, but I think we'll advance again.

I'm not sure we were ever as bad last year as we looked. It was a lost year for a new coach, who couldn't affect the change he wanted. But he has been able to this year, and we've looked a lot better.

 

[Jarman3]

Bit harsh delisting Parnell less than a week after he was drafted. Has he even had a training session yet, never mind playing a game?

 

[Cap]

I think in 2023 if we are out of the bottom 4 and in the 9-13 range we will be doing well.

The original post I responded to was calling a home final in 2023 the pass mark, which won't happen

Fair call, That would be incredible, but you'd hope the team was in a position that it could happen if things went our way, rather than no chance at all