Analysis Some Statistics: Positives / Negatives

[JP2]

Well I'm as perplexed as anyone with how we manage to keep losing these games, so I've been going through some statistics to see where the answers might be. Here are some interesting things I've found that might shed a bit of light.

In Losses to Top-8 teams:

One thing the stats will show is that we've been mostly competitive in all these games, which I guess we already know, but still it's a mystery to me how we've managed to get a record of 0-7 against these top 8 teams. In these 7 games, we have:

• Won 13 out of 28 quarters.
• Won the inside 50 count 399-350. This means that in our losses we've averaged 57 i50s a game, which is historically elite. In the last 15 years, only about 10 teams have averaged more than 57 i50s per game across all games in a season, and about half of those teams won premierships in those years.
• Won the contested possession count in every game except one (which we tied with Geelong 163-163).
• Kicked a total of 74.86 (accuracy of only 46.25%). That would be enough to put us at third worst in the league.
• Conceded a total of 107.67 (accuracy of 61.49%). The most accurate team in the league is currently going at about 57%.

I think it's actually pretty difficult to overstate the importance of goal kicking accuracy. If I ask you what Hawthorn, Collingwood, North, Brisbane and WC have in common, you'd probably tell me that they are teams that have over-achieved this season. They are also amongst the most accurate goal kicking sides. Conversely, many of the sides that have disappointed - Adelaide, GWS (before the last few weeks), Carlton, GC, St. Kilda, WB - have all had goal kicking percentages of below 50%. It sounds stupidly obvious, but in such an even competition, converting chances is so important to winning games, and we're consistently blowing it when it counts.

Across all games:

Just some random observations. In the league we are currently ranked:

• #1 for contested possessions, #1 for hit outs, #1 for centre clearances, #3 for total clearances, #2 for tackles. This contested / stoppage work is where we're elite.
• #1 for inside 50s. We're on track to record the second highest ever inside 50 count since records began in 1999. Only Essendon in 2000 (remember that year?) have ever averaged higher.
• #1 for marks inside 50, #2 for contested marks, but #15 for total marks. Additionally, we're #14 for disposal efficiency and #16 for clangers (meaning we have the third highest count). This tells me we're not moving the ball well by foot across the ground.
• #17 for defensive 50 rebounds, which suggests that when the opposition get it inside their 50, we're not good at getting it out.
• #17 for one-percenters, which tells me we're not working hard enough when we don't have the ball.
• #18 for bounces, which suggests that we're struggling with running and carrying.

I'm not sure what to make of all that, other than to say we're a very strange team. Statistically, in basically every stat, we're either in the top 3 teams in the league or the bottom 3 - there are very few things we do averagely. Not sure what else to take from it, to be honest.

But if you're a nerd and numbers get you all hot and sweaty, hope that makes for some interesting reading!

 

[schmuttt]

Defensively we're still s**t, Goody going on about how we fixed our defence up in the 2nd half of the year was bullshit. Have had the worst defence statistically in the top 8 all year.

I'm a tad worried he thinks our defence is fine and that todays ball use inside 50 was an aberration. Please don't be one of these pig headed coaches who can't realize their system is the problem Goody, Hardwick had the same epiphany 2016/2017 when they tried to play like Hawthorn and look at the Tigers now.

 

[Toump Ass]

We are a very generous team. Regularly give up at least a couple of over the top goals and we're wonderful at handing over six points in the last minute of a quarter too.

Brayshaw, Oliver, Hogan all missed absolute sitters today, hopefully we can iron out this lack of composure in big games. I'm assuming it's a matter of experience.

 

[rhaz]

We had the 7th least games played this week. 11 players (half of our team) were in the 50-99 bracket and many of those only passed their 50th games this year.

I wish we would stop shitting the bed but we're still young. Richmond did it all the time in the past then eventually clicked.

 

[thetank]

JP2, post of the year. If only the goalkicking was as accurate as yours stats.

 

[Topkent]

Well I'm as perplexed as anyone with how we manage to keep losing these games, so I've been going through some statistics to see where the answers might be. Here are some interesting things I've found that might shed a bit of light.

In Losses to Top-8 teams:

One thing the stats will show is that we've been mostly competitive in all these games, which I guess we already know, but still it's a mystery to me how we've managed to get a record of 0-7 against these top 8 teams. In these 7 games, we have:

• Won 13 out of 28 quarters.
• Won the inside 50 count 399-350. This means that in our losses we've averaged 57 i50s a game, which is historically elite. In the last 15 years, only about 10 teams have averaged more than 57 i50s per game across all games in a season, and about half of those teams won premierships in those years.
• Won the contested possession count in every game except one (which we tied with Geelong 163-163).
• Kicked a total of 74.86 (accuracy of only 46.25%). That would be enough to put us at third worst in the league.
• Conceded a total of 107.67 (accuracy of 61.49%). The most accurate team in the league is currently going at about 57%.

I think it's actually pretty difficult to overstate the importance of goal kicking accuracy. If I ask you what Hawthorn, Collingwood, North, Brisbane and WC have in common, you'd probably tell me that they are teams that have over-achieved this season. They are also amongst the most accurate goal kicking sides. Conversely, many of the sides that have disappointed - Adelaide, GWS (before the last few weeks), Carlton, GC, St. Kilda, WB - have all had goal kicking percentages of below 50%. It sounds stupidly obvious, but in such an even competition, converting chances is so important to winning games, and we're consistently blowing it when it counts.

Across all games:

Just some random observations. In the league we are currently ranked:

• #1 for contested possessions, #1 for hit outs, #1 for centre clearances, #3 for total clearances, #2 for tackles. This contested / stoppage work is where we're elite.
• #1 for inside 50s. We're on track to record the second highest ever inside 50 count since records began in 1999. Only Essendon in 2000 (remember that year?) have ever averaged higher.
• #1 for marks inside 50, #2 for contested marks, but #15 for total marks. Additionally, we're #14 for disposal efficiency and #16 for clangers (meaning we have the third highest count). This tells me we're not moving the ball well by foot across the ground.
• #17 for defensive 50 rebounds, which suggests that when the opposition get it inside their 50, we're not good at getting it out.
• #17 for one-percenters, which tells me we're not working hard enough when we don't have the ball.
• #18 for bounces, which suggests that we're struggling with running and carrying.

I'm not sure what to make of all that, other than to say we're a very strange team. Statistically, in basically every stat, we're either in the top 3 teams in the league or the bottom 3 - there are very few things we do averagely. Not sure what else to take from it, to be honest.

But if you're a nerd and numbers get you all hot and sweaty, hope that makes for some interesting reading!

That tells me we are maximising the game plan and it's a failure. Our strengths are making us number 1 in the AFL in areas we want them but it's not translating into results against good sides and its also exposing our weaknesses.

We also can't win when the game isn't completely on our terms and often when it is. We need to strip down the game plan and change about 6-8 players in the side.

 

[schmuttt]

That tells me we are maximising the game plan and it's a failure. Our strengths are making us number 1 in the AFL in areas we want them but it's not translating into results against good sides and its also exposing our weaknesses.

We also can't win when the game isn't completely on our terms and often when it is. We need to strip down the game plan and change about 6-8 players in the side.

Something is fundamentally broken in our system when we have the lions share of the ball basically every week, fail to convert our chances but ALSO allow easy chances the other way. You look at Richmond who are a poor clearance side and average in contested ball yet they're comfortably the best team in it. The game nowadays is all about being efficient going forward, we're playing like it is mid 2000s and we can just beat teams with superior talent.

 

[00Stinger]

Defensively we're still s**t, Goody going on about how we fixed our defence up in the 2nd half of the year was bullshit. Have had the worst defence statistically in the top 8 all year.

I'm a tad worried he thinks our defence is fine and that todays ball use inside 50 was an aberration. Please don't be one of these pig headed coaches who can't realize their system is the problem Goody, Hardwick had the same epiphany 2016/2017 when they tried to play like Hawthorn and look at the Tigers now.

Two main reasons for this imo.

We play probably the most forward half and attacking gamestyle in the league which opens us up on the rebound.

Having Lever as the sweeper was going to counter this, obviously his absence has really hurt

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[wowlace]

All these games we lost in close margins could easily had been won if our forwards weren't completely s**t. Hogan missed how many gimmes yesterday? Go back and look at the other games. I bet you can find the same.

 

[demondavey]

Two main reasons for this imo.

We play probably the most forward half and attacking gamestyle in the league which opens us up on the rebound.

Having Lever as the sweeper was going to counter this, obviously his absence has really hurt

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I’ve got no issues playing an aggressive forward press, but I do have issues when Sydney kicks 6 goals in 15 minutes which exposes our defensive game. You can’t have it both ways. You’ve got to expect an attack at some point whether it’s Gold Coast or Richmond, if we can’t create a defensive game then we aren’t going anywhere.

1. Our midfield needs to be working hard two ways to help out our defence. I’d love to see a hot spot of the area our midfield covers.

2. We have a bad habit of getting sucked into a stoppage to win a contested ball or try and flood a stoppage. There’s no forethought for the spread (if it’s attack) or appropriate zoning (if it’s defending). Little things like getting men back behind the ball, getting dangerous and into zones.

3. Goal kicking. Bordering on non AFL standard.