Some Random Bets

[somethingrandom]

Sydney vs Collingwood
Collingwood 1.0u@2.3 (Betstar)

T20 World Cup Winner
Pakistan 0.5u@7.50 (Centrebet)

 

[somethingrandom]

Week 3 multi
Collingwood/Manly/Hawthorn/Canterbury 0.5u@9.28 (Centrebet)

Brownlow/Premiership Double
Watson/Hawthorn 1.0u@9.42 (Betstar)
Watson/Collingwood 0.2u@36 (Betstar)

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Week 3 multi
Collingwood/Manly/Hawthorn/Canterbury 0.5u@9.28 (Centrebet)

tailing this

 

[somethingrandom]

tailing this

I'm not overly confident on Manly. I took a Manly/Canterbury Quinella a couple of months ago, so its more hope than anything.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I'm not overly confident on Manly. I took a Manly/Canterbury Quinella a couple of months ago, so its more hope than anything.

Manly are the softest leg there, but I reckon they will get up. I got onto it at $9.12, should probably have had Hawks 25+ rather than head to head.

 

[somethingrandom]

Centrebet Promotions

Jon Jones vs Vitor Belfort - Method of Victory
Jon Jones by KO 0.5u@2.00

Liverpool vs Manchester United - HT/FT Double
Liverpool/Draw 0.5u@14.00

2012 Brownlow Medal - Winner
Jobe Watson 2.0u@5.75

Sydney vs Collingwood
Collingwood 1.0u@2.47

Canterbury vs South Sydney
Canterbury ( -8) 1.0u@2.10

Friday Night Lights
Collingwood/Manly 0.5u@5.60 <----- lol multi is worth 5.68

 

[somethingrandom]

Port Adelaide most votes
Brad Ebert 1.0u@3.75 (bet365)

 

[somethingrandom]

Bulldogs win/Hawthorn 25+ 1.0u@2.19

 

[somethingrandom]

Betstar Double Fixed Odds
Manighar 1.0u@4.20
Danleigh 1.0u@13.00

 

[somethingrandom]

Week 3
Finals Top Try Scorer: Brett Stewart 0.4u@13 (Centrebet) -0.4u
Finals leading goal kicker: Travis Cloke 0.4u@13 (Sportsbet) -0.4u
Collingwood 1.0u@2.3 (Betstar) -1.0u
Watson/Collingwood 0.2u@36 (Betstar) -0.2u
Collingwood/Manly/Hawthorn/Canterbury 0.5u@9.28 (Centrebet) -0.5u
Jon Jones by KO 0.5u@2.00 -0.5u
Liverpool/Draw 0.5u@14.00 -0.5u
Collingwood 1.0u@2.47 -1.0u
Canterbury ( -8) 1.0u@2.10 +1.1u
Collingwood/Manly 0.5u@5.60 -0.5u
Bulldogs win/Hawthorn 25+ 1.0u@2.19 -1.0u
Manighar 1.0u@4.20 -1.0u
Danleigh 1.0u@13.00 -1.0u

TOTAL: -6.90u YIKES!!!

Pending
Brownlow Outright Winner: Jobe Watson 2.0u@6.00 (Sportsbet)
Jobe Watson 2.0u@5.75 (Centrebet)
Brownlow Quinella: Watson/Thompson 0.5u@23 (Sportsbet/Betstar)
Watson/Ablett 0.5u@10 (Sportsbet/Betstar)
Brownlow Trifecta: Watson/Thompson/Ablett 0.2@91 (Sportsbet)
Watson/Ablett/Thompson 0.2u@91 (Sportsbet)
Brownlow top 3: Jobe Watson 4.0u@2.15 (Luxbet)
Port Adelaide most votes: Brad Ebert 1.0u@3.75 (bet365)
AFL/NRL/Brownlow winners multi: Hawthorn/Bulldogs/Watson 1.0u@27.72 (Sportsbet)
Brownlow/Premiership Double: Watson/Hawthorn 1.0u@9.42 (Betstar)
T20 World Cup Winner: Pakistan 0.5u@7.50 (Centrebet)

TOTAL: +12.03u
PENDING: 12.90u

 

[somethingrandom]

Norm Smith Medalist
Cyril Rioli 1.0u@11.00 (Centrebet)
Brownlow/Norm Smith Double
Jobe Watson/Cyril Rioli 0.3u@57.00 (Sportsbet)

 

[KardiniaPark]

Why would you take the unders at Sportsbet? Just back Watson and then put it all on Rioli at best odds. Their doubles markets are complete balls.

 

[somethingrandom]

Why would you take the unders at Sportsbet? Just back Watson and then put it all on Rioli at best odds. Their doubles markets are complete balls.

U WOT?

 

[somethingrandom]

 

[somethingrandom]

Brownlow Outright Winner: Jobe Watson 2.0u@6.00 (Sportsbet) +10.0u
Jobe Watson 2.0u@5.75 (Centrebet) +9.5u
Brownlow Quinella: Watson/Thompson 0.5u@23 (Sportsbet/Betstar) -0.5u
Watson/Ablett 0.5u@10 (Sportsbet/Betstar) -0.5u
Brownlow Trifecta: Watson/Thompson/Ablett 0.2@91 (Sportsbet) -0.2u
Watson/Ablett/Thompson 0.2u@91 (Sportsbet) -0.2u
Brownlow top 3: Jobe Watson 4.0u@2.15 (Luxbet) +4.6u
Port Adelaide most votes: Brad Ebert 1.0u@3.75 (bet365) +2.75

Pending
AFL/NRL/Brownlow winners multi: Hawthorn/Bulldogs/Watson 1.0u@27.72 (Sportsbet)
Brownlow/Premiership Double: Watson/Hawthorn 1.0u@9.42 (Betstar)
T20 World Cup Winner: Pakistan 0.5u@7.50 (Centrebet)
Norm Smith Medalist: Cyril Rioli 1.0u@11.00 (Centrebet)
Brownlow/Norm Smith Double: Jobe Watson/Cyril Rioli 0.3u@57.00 (Sportsbet)

TOTAL: +37.48u
PENDING: 3.80u

 

[somethingrandom]

Clive Churchill Medal Position of Winner
Interchange 0.5u@34.00 (its a secret)

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Clive Churchill Medal Position of Winner
Interchange 0.5u@34.00 (its a secret)

that is a very sporting bet

 

[somethingrandom]

that is a very sporting bet

Close

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

it is going to get smashed this morning.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

it is going to get smashed this morning.

it's down to 12's now...

 

[somethingrandom]

lol, it was still 34 early today. I think somebody has worked out why we're betting on it. Sportsbet has also come in from 26 to 11.

 

[somethingrandom]

Betstar Double Fixed Odds
That's The One 0.5u@19.00

Bulldogs vs Storm
Bulldogs 2.0u@2.05 (Centrebet)

Bulldogs vs Storm
Bulldogs 13+ 0.5u@5.80 (Centrebet)

First Try Scorer - Bulldogs v Storm
Greg Eastwood 0.2u@41.00 (Betstar)

 

[somethingrandom]

Week 4
AFL/NRL/Brownlow winners multi: Hawthorn/Bulldogs/Watson 1.0u@27.72 (Sportsbet) -1.0u
Brownlow/Premiership Double: Watson/Hawthorn 1.0u@9.42 (Betstar) -1.0u
Norm Smith Medalist: Cyril Rioli 1.0u@11.00 (Centrebet) -1.0u
Brownlow/Norm Smith Double: Jobe Watson/Cyril Rioli 0.3u@57.00 (Sportsbet) -0.3u
Clive Churchill Medal Position of Winner: Interchange 0.5u@34.00 -0.5u
Betstar Double Fixed Odds: That's The One 0.5u@19.00 -0.5u
Bulldogs 2.0u@2.05 (Centrebet) Refund
Bulldogs 13+ 0.5u@5.80 (Centrebet) -0.5u
First Try Scorer: Greg Eastwood 0.2u@41.00 (Betstar) -0.2u
T20 World Cup Winner: Pakistan 0.5u@7.50 (Centrebet) -0.5u

TOTAL: -5.50u

 

[somethingrandom]

I just about got everything wrong in the last 2 weeks (except Brownlow) and should have followed through on the Grand Final hedge.
Overall I'm pretty happy with 30+ units up for the month, and I don't think that's too bad for a zero edge punter

Week 1 +14.07u
Week 2 +4.86u
Week 3 -6.90u
Brownlow +25.45u
Week 4 -5.50u

TOTAL +31.98u

 

[Jan Juc]

What is your z-score, your p-value and how many standard deviations from your simulated Monte Carlo's does your sample size get down for?