premiership predictions till 2030

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Certainly not downplaying Selwood's impact at the club, but I do agree it feels different, but I think in a positive way, the past decade has seen Geelong lose its entire list from the dominant era of 2007 -2011. The Cats have been falling off a cliff ever since according to many, but not only have they hung onto a ledge, they have climbed back up again without falling too far at all. It's annoyed opposition fans for the past 12 years! Selwood is a great loss, but no one is irreplaceable in football.
There's a great feeling around the club because there is a great sense of vindication. No point being a destination club, luring all these big names if its going to hold us back from a flag. Turns out building a club culture where everyone lives and breathes Geelong can bring the ultimate success...why stop now?
 

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Against my better judgment, I’m trying to take this thread seriously:

Melbourne - 23
Carlton - 24
Carlton - 25
Sydney - 26
Carlton - 27
Hawthorn - 28
Sydney - 29
Hawthorn - 30
 
There's a great feeling around the club because there is a great sense of vindication. No point being a destination club, luring all these big names if its going to hold us back from a flag. Turns out building a club culture where everyone lives and breathes Geelong can bring the ultimate success...why stop now?
Things have changed as far s Geelong is concerned. Players in the 80s and 90s wanted to live closer to the action in Melbourne and frequent the King street clubs, hang around the Saloon bar in South Yarra, accept the celebrity free invites to entertainment functions etc, but this was all pre-internet and cameras on phones snapping a pic of you having a beer or chatting up a bird etc. Players today want their privacy and Geelong is a good place to hide away from the prying eyes of the public and have every movement noted on some social media platform within minutes of arriving somewhere. Geelong used to be a place that could only attract players at the end of their career, but now top players want to go there and they actively pursue a way of getting there....The club has just made itself more accessible and attractive for that to happen.
 
2023 Melbourne
2024 Carlton
2025 Carlton
2026 Carlton
2027 Fremantle
2028 North Melbourne
2029 Hawthorn

That Carlton three peat might be wishful thinking, but i'm confident that we'll land at least two flags.

A Hawks flag is a given i think because it's Hawthorn. Everyone knows deep down that the Hawks will flag this decade!
 
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2023 Melbourne
2024 Carlton
2025 Carlton
2026 Carlton
2027 Fremantle
2028 North Melbourne
2029 Hawthorn

That Carlton three peat might be wishful thinking, but i'm confident that we'll land at least two flags.

A Hawks flag is a given i think because it's Hawthorn. Everyone knows deep down that the Hawks will flag this decade!
LOL.

No chance on both counts.

Carlton have to play finals this decade first.

And as for Hawthorn, when the funds from Tassie subside and their measure of membership numbers is scrutinised, they'll be lucky to be around at the end of the decade.
 
Certainly not downplaying Selwood's impact at the club, but I do agree it feels different, but I think in a positive way, the past decade has seen Geelong lose its entire list from the dominant era of 2007 -2011. The Cats have been falling off a cliff ever since according to many, but not only have they hung onto a ledge, they have climbed back up again without falling too far at all. It's annoyed opposition fans for the past 12 years! Selwood is a great loss, but no one is irreplaceable in football.
The obvious counter argument is that your team is really old. This isn't like 2012 or 2018 when you were 26 and a bit, you were almost 29 on average in the GF.

That's Clayton Oliver levels of unprecedented for age.
 
The obvious counter argument is that your team is really old. This isn't like 2012 or 2018 when you were 26 and a bit, you were almost 29 on average in the GF.

That's Clayton Oliver levels of unprecedented for age.
AFL teams by average age in 2023

Geelong – 25.5 years
Western Bulldogs – 25.4 years
Brisbane – 25.1 years
Richmond – 25.1 years
Melbourne – 25.1 years
Collingwood – 25.0 years
Gold Coast – 24.8 years
Carlton – 24.7 years
West Coast – 24.5 years
St Kilda – 24.4 years
Port Adelaide – 24.4 years
GWS – 24.2 years
North Melbourne 24.1 years
Sydney – 24.1 years
Fremantle – 24.0 years
Essendon – 23.9 years
Adelaide – 23.8 years
Hawthorn – 23.1 years

All the top teams and premiership favourites are the top 6. Not much difference between Geelong and Collingwood.
 
This time feels different. Were talking about a generational leader here not so much a generational player. I think your downplaying his impact on and off the field. You have good leaders down there but Selwood was next level and I don't dish out alot of compliments to Geelong or it's players.

It's a fair call and obviously an unknown at the moment, but the same could be said for most clubs who have had success. There's always one or two players who feel like the driving force, either through intangibles or pure on-field talent.

Not a shot at you personally, but more just an observation: I do find it interesting that the argument has switched from "Selwood is cooked" or "He'll never captain a flag" to us being stuffed without him. Guess folks have got to find a way to cope somehow.
 
'23 - Collingwood
'24 - Carlton
'25 - Fremantle
'26 - Sydney
'27 - Hawthorn
'28 - West Coast
'29 - Geelong
'30 - GWS
 

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It's a fair call and obviously an unknown at the moment, but the same could be said for most clubs who have had success. There's always one or two players who feel like the driving force, either through intangibles or pure on-field talent.

Not a shot at you personally, but more just an observation: I do find it interesting that the argument has switched from "Selwood is cooked" or "He'll never captain a flag" to us being stuffed without him. Guess folks have got to find a way to cope somehow.
Think you will find around these forums everybody marvelled at his ability to marshal the troops into battle and find ways to win and to always be influential in big moments to drag the team across the line. It's the Ducking and shrugging which rubbed people up the wrong way. The tangible he brought to the table is irreplaceable. Up there with guys like Voss and Hodge. We haven't found a great leader since he left. Your in the same boat now. You have Danger, Hawkins, Stewart, Smith etc just like we had Roughead, Gunston, Breust and Shiels who are good leaders in their own right but Selwood had a ruthless mindset where you die for the cause so to speak. On and Off the field I think there will be a difference in how you guys go about it.
 
It's a fair call and obviously an unknown at the moment, but the same could be said for most clubs who have had success. There's always one or two players who feel like the driving force, either through intangibles or pure on-field talent.

Not a shot at you personally, but more just an observation: I do find it interesting that the argument has switched from "Selwood is cooked" or "He'll never captain a flag" to us being stuffed without him. Guess folks have got to find a way to cope somehow.
You could name half a dozen players the media and fans have said that about for the past 12 years... They knew this time was coming, the club has been prepared.
 
LOL.

No chance on both counts.

Carlton have to play finals this decade first.

And as for Hawthorn, when the funds from Tassie subside and their measure of membership numbers is scrutinised, they'll be lucky to be around at the end of the decade.
In the years from 1983 to 2012 Richmond only made the finals twice in 1995 and 2001. You then finally made the finals in 2013, but it took you another four attempts to actually win a finals game and you then won three flags in four years.

So if Richmond can break that cycle of failure then so can Carlton. Hawthorn have won a flag in every decade since the 60's.

I think only a very naive foolish and silly person would write off the Hawks in the manner that you have! The Hawks are the greatest AFL club of the modern era along with Geelong. Besides i need Hawthorn to be up and about and depriving Collingwood Essendon and Richmond of flags!
 
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2023: cats yes they do have another one in them before the big slide down
2024: pies the whole city will be like 1990 on steroids watch out
2025: pies nice back to back
2026: pies or blues ( after a 2 year rebuild) or saints (long awaited flag since 1966 and its time for another fairytale) or Freo and swans interstate teams
2027: pies back to normal programing or if theres a team from tassie
2028: tasmania team
2029: north or hawks or eagles or bombers ( yes i do think they will win a flag this decade but like after a 5 year re build)
2030: time for suns or gws to win one if they are still in the afl

pies i feel its 2024-2026 are their times.
Even jesus said jesus


Tell him his dreaming
 
In the years from 1983 to 2012 Richmond only made the finals twice in 1995 and 2001. You then finally made the finals in 2013, but it took you another four attempts to actually win a finals game and you then won three flags in four years.

So if Richmond can break that cycle of failure then so can Carlton. Hawthorn have won a flag in every decade since the 60's.

I think only a very naive foolish and silly person would write off the Hawks in the manner that you have! The Hawks are the greatest AFL club of the modern era along with Geelong. Besides i need Hawthorn to be up and about and depriving Collingwood Essendon and Richmond of flags!
You make a number of interesting points:

1. Richmond was a rabble run by imbeciles up until around 2007 when Gary March took over as President. Uniting the Board was first priority then building the muscle power (dollars) of the business next. To this end Benny Gale was appointed CEO and the club utilised its massive supporter base to eliminate the debt which burdened the club and then invest heavily in the football department.

You have to run before you can walk these days. Future premiers have had to endure a number of finals series failures before the ultimate success. As you pointed out Richmond made finals in 2013, 2014, and 2015 (2 of those years netted a 15/7 H&A record). So 2016 was the aberration. Even the Dogs played finals in 2015 prior to their 2016 success. However, in their case 2016 was the aberration too! I don't see neither the current Carlton or Hawthorn teams anywhere near this point.

Without going into specifics, if you really want to enlighten yourself (irrespective of it being about Richmond), get your hands on Konrad Marshall's book "Yellow & Black". Therein lies the transformation of this club. And if anyone thinks this club is going to sink into the mire of mediocrity it found itself in for 3 decades is in for a rude shock!

2. One thing Carlton and Hawthorn do have (as has Richmond) is they know how to win it when they make it. (Unlike the the club the poor, delusional, misguided soul who started this irrelevant thread supports:)). However, getting there is your biggest problem.

Take Carlton. Lets not dwell on the premierships Carlton bought (I'm being kind) in 1987 & 1995. Lets go back to the '60s, '70s & '80s. A bygone era when each club had its country and metropolitan zones which were complimented by recruiting from interstate and other VFL clubs. Who were Carlton's chief competitors in this market? Only 3 or 4 other clubs. Richmond, Collingwood, Hawthorn, and when the board and committee of North Melbourne put their balls on the line, them too. Other clubs like Fitzroy, South Melbourne, Footscray, etc. were never in the hunt.

These days Carlton is competing with 17 other clubs in an equal market. No quick fixes. Free Agency helps, but its not the sole answer.

As for Hawthorn. No-one can doubt they have been the most successful club of the modern era. 13 premierships in 60 years is some doing. Their success through the '70s and '80s was built similarly to Richmond and Carlton's. Their recent three-peat came off the back of some shrewd list management decisions (eg, Jonathon Hay - they raped NM!!), and some excellent luck at the draft table (particularly the 2004 draft).

Hawthorn also managed to boost their coffers by selling 4 home games to Tasmania, which is not going to last. And someone obviously bought a very large number of memberships himself.

We all saw where Hawthorn was in 1996 - only 5 years after they won 8 flags in 20 years!! FFS, where do you think Richmond, Carlton, Collingwood or Essendon would be if they won 8 flags in 20 years!!?? Certainly not looking for a suitor!!

I'm happy to bet against the Hawks getting anywhere near a flag this decade.

I love your passion Irish, and I hope for your sake we can renew our hostilities deep in September once again, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.
 
You make a number of interesting points:

1. Richmond was a rabble run by imbeciles up until around 2007 when Gary March took over as President. Uniting the Board was first priority then building the muscle power (dollars) of the business next. To this end Benny Gale was appointed CEO and the club utilised its massive supporter base to eliminate the debt which burdened the club and then invest heavily in the football department.

You have to run before you can walk these days. Future premiers have had to endure a number of finals series failures before the ultimate success. As you pointed out Richmond made finals in 2013, 2014, and 2015 (2 of those years netted a 15/7 H&A record). So 2016 was the aberration. Even the Dogs played finals in 2015 prior to their 2016 success. However, in their case 2016 was the aberration too! I don't see neither the current Carlton or Hawthorn teams anywhere near this point.

Without going into specifics, if you really want to enlighten yourself (irrespective of it being about Richmond), get your hands on Konrad Marshall's book "Yellow & Black". Therein lies the transformation of this club. And if anyone thinks this club is going to sink into the mire of mediocrity it found itself in for 3 decades is in for a rude shock!

2. One thing Carlton and Hawthorn do have (as has Richmond) is they know how to win it when they make it. (Unlike the the club the poor, delusional, misguided soul who started this irrelevant thread supports:)). However, getting there is your biggest problem.

Take Carlton. Lets not dwell on the premierships Carlton bought (I'm being kind) in 1987 & 1995. Lets go back to the '60s, '70s & '80s. A bygone era when each club had its country and metropolitan zones which were complimented by recruiting from interstate and other VFL clubs. Who were Carlton's chief competitors in this market? Only 3 or 4 other clubs. Richmond, Collingwood, Hawthorn, and when the board and committee of North Melbourne put their balls on the line, them too. Other clubs like Fitzroy, South Melbourne, Footscray, etc. were never in the hunt.

These days Carlton is competing with 17 other clubs in an equal market. No quick fixes. Free Agency helps, but its not the sole answer.

As for Hawthorn. No-one can doubt they have been the most successful club of the modern era. 13 premierships in 60 years is some doing. Their success through the '70s and '80s was built similarly to Richmond and Carlton's. Their recent three-peat came off the back of some shrewd list management decisions (eg, Jonathon Hay - they raped NM!!), and some excellent luck at the draft table (particularly the 2004 draft).

Hawthorn also managed to boost their coffers by selling 4 home games to Tasmania, which is not going to last. And someone obviously bought a very large number of memberships himself.

We all saw where Hawthorn was in 1996 - only 5 years after they won 8 flags in 20 years!! FFS, where do you think Richmond, Carlton, Collingwood or Essendon would be if they won 8 flags in 20 years!!?? Certainly not looking for a suitor!!

I'm happy to bet against the Hawks getting anywhere near a flag this decade.

I love your passion Irish, and I hope for your sake we can renew our hostilities deep in September once again, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.
Country zoning i think was introduced to hinder both Collingwoods and Melbournes ability to win flags, and it sure did work a treat there!

Carltons problems started because they allowed John Elliott, to completely dominate the club for nearly twenty years. He was kicked out eventually but the damage was done by then! When John Elliott took over as president Carlton at that point in time was the greatest footy club in Australia.

It was a very wealthy club and it was a successful one too. The foundations were there to build on this position of strength, yet we've only won two flags since 1982. Carlton for sure have struggled to adapt to the salary cap/draft era of player recruitment.

We were a club that always demanded a quick fix and instant success, but we decided to bottom out in 2015 and just blow up the playing list and start again. We decided to stop looking for the quick fixes and launch a full on rebuild. Obviously i hope that this rebuild will finally bear some fruit within the next three years.
 
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AFL teams by average age in 2023

Geelong – 25.5 years
Western Bulldogs – 25.4 years
Brisbane – 25.1 years
Richmond – 25.1 years
Melbourne – 25.1 years
Collingwood – 25.0 years
Gold Coast – 24.8 years
Carlton – 24.7 years
West Coast – 24.5 years
St Kilda – 24.4 years
Port Adelaide – 24.4 years
GWS – 24.2 years
North Melbourne 24.1 years
Sydney – 24.1 years
Fremantle – 24.0 years
Essendon – 23.9 years
Adelaide – 23.8 years
Hawthorn – 23.1 years

All the top teams and premiership favourites are the top 6. Not much difference between Geelong and Collingwood.
Not the squad, the team. Every team has a bottom 12 or so made up of players under 23 with little or no experience.

GF teams tend to be in the 25 - 27 range. Swans were 25y10m last year. Richmond in 2020 (the last one of theirs) was 27y1m. Hawks 2015 were 27y10m.

Your 22 in the GF aged 28y7m - that is ancient by AFL standards. It doesn't mean you can't replace those older players but if you do and remain competitive it will be a mighty achievement.
 
Not the squad, the team. Every team has a bottom 12 or so made up of players under 23 with little or no experience.

GF teams tend to be in the 25 - 27 range. Swans were 25y10m last year. Richmond in 2020 (the last one of theirs) was 27y1m. Hawks 2015 were 27y10m.

Your 22 in the GF aged 28y7m - that is ancient by AFL standards. It doesn't mean you can't replace those older players but if you do and remain competitive it will be a mighty achievement.
Geelong has dealt with the age question for over a decade and they will have a stack of players under 25 making their debut for the club or getting to 10 games in 2023...IMO the age of 28-30 in the modern era is the old 25-27. Players are fitter, better handled and can last longer these days. The game is not as brutal as it once was.
 
Geelong has dealt with the age question for over a decade and they will have a stack of players under 25 making their debut for the club or getting to 10 games in 2023...IMO the age of 28-30 in the modern era is the old 25-27. Players are fitter, better handled and can last longer these days. The game is not as brutal as it once was.
You're welcome to as much optimism as you like I just don't share it for your medium term.
 
2023 - Richmond def Brisbane
2024 - Collingwood def Carlton
2025 - Fremantle def Port
2026 - St Kilda def Carlton
2027 - Carlton def Gold Coast
2028 - Hawthorn def Fremantle
2029 - Adelaide def North Melbourne
2030 - West Coast def Sydney Swans

History suggest the Hawks will win a flag later this decade and of course, the Eagles will win one in the Year of the Dog. If my prediction is true, 88, 08, 28 in a 20 year interval for Hawthorn premierships. Carlton's year is in '27 with third time lucky after two losses in '24 and '26. One last flag for the Tigers over Brisbane
 
In the years from 1983 to 2012 Richmond only made the finals twice in 1995 and 2001. You then finally made the finals in 2013, but it took you another four attempts to actually win a finals game and you then won three flags in four years.

So if Richmond can break that cycle of failure then so can Carlton. Hawthorn have won a flag in every decade since the 60's.

I think only a very naive foolish and silly person would write off the Hawks in the manner that you have! The Hawks are the greatest AFL club of the modern era along with Geelong. Besides i need Hawthorn to be up and about and depriving Collingwood Essendon and Richmond of flags!

Keep in mind, Richmond finished 9th in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006 and 2008. So turn those 9th placed finishes to 8th placed finals spot, thats another 6 finals minimum they could of played. Would of Made Matty Richardsons career look much better.

Also had solid players in Wayne Campbell, Brendon Gale, Paul Broderick, Matt Knights and Nick Daffy. So those blokes could of had a finals run in 1994-6 and 2000-01.
 

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