Polls Thread Mk III

[Fire]

It'll be no more than a fraction of a %. The ABC etc. will have been forecasting the national 2PP based on an estimate of how the elected crossbenchers' votes would theoretically flow on preferences.

Their working estimate would have to be impossibly out across several seats to have any meaningful impact on the national figure.

Some already look to have been counted and are in line with expectation. Kooyoong came out as 54-46 LIB-ALP

Kooyong, VIC - AEC Tally Room

Kooyong, VIC

tallyroom.aec.gov.au

Ah so they've already factored the estimates in? Fair enough! I thought the AEC figure would have been 'official'.

 

[Forward Press]

It also obviously confirms that these blue ribbon Liberal seats lost to teals still turn out in large part to preference Libs over Labor. The question is whether they can be drawn back into the fold in three years' time...

 

[Pessimistic]

It also obviously confirms that these blue ribbon Liberal seats lost to teals still turn out in large part to preference Libs over Labor. The question is whether they can be drawn back into the fold in three years' time...

Non lib Voters who switched primaries to Teals also preferenced libs above labor/green? Why would they do that?

Monique Ryan Kooyong was always second on primaries so we don’t know where her voters preferences would have gone (is that correct?)
However, her 40% primary seems to balance lib-6% alp-10% green-14% others-8%(mostly another independent)

Also seems a couple of the 6% who switched primaries from lib didn even preference libs before the other majors

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Morgan Vic Poll July 3

2PP

ALP 59.5
Lib 40.5

Better Premier

Andrews 64.5
Guy 35.5

 

[Gough]

Morgan Vic Poll July 3

2PP

ALP 59.5
Lib 40.5

Better Premier

Andrews 64.5
Guy 35.5

That's hysterical.

 

[Fire]

Dunno if that's close to accurate but damn. Hysterical and awesome. People love trains.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Dunno if that's close to accurate but damn. Hysterical and awesome. People love trains.

Trains *in rule.

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[Baltimore Jack]

They are big numbers for Labor

 

[FredLeDeux]

They are big numbers for Labor

The ALP collecting LNP votes at a rate of knots.
Says something about the pretend-ALP's labour credentials.

 

[Millky95]

Big numbers but surely this is just new government honeymoon period stuff?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Big numbers but surely this is just new government honeymoon period stuff?

Definitely, but probably bodes well for Vic/NSW state elections, if it holds.

Abbott was already starting to be on the nose within a couple of months.

 

[QuietB]

Big numbers but surely this is just new government honeymoon period stuff?

Of course there is a honeymoon period but the question is how is Dutton going to make inroads? Bashing unions is not going to do it.

The LNP are about to lose their s**t over the voice in parliament debate and frankly their position might just cut them off from the teal seats and young people in Australia forever.

 

[SSwans2011]

Big numbers but surely this is just new government honeymoon period stuff?

Not reading too much into it either, though the preferred PM numbers seem close to unprecedented in the 21st century.

Same amout of time after the 2013 election, Newspoll had Abbott down about 4% on approval and 2PP compared to pre-election polling.

 

[QuietB]

The Australian has miraculously learnt how to do graphs properly

 

[Theseventhhamster]

The Australian has miraculously learnt how to do graphs properly

Put all the graphic design work into making Albo look menacing and finding/creating the closest thing to Dutton looking like a human.

 

[Gough]

Imagine replacing the most inept leader in living memory and still losing ground in the polls, you'd think that not beiing Scott Morrison would be worth a nice little bump for his replacement.

 

[Mick F]

Imagine replacing the most inept leader in living memory and still losing ground in the polls, you'd think that not beiing Scott Morrison would be worth a nice little bump for his replacement.

I think some of our politicians are a bit slow on the uptake. First with ‘same sex marriage’ and now with promoting renewable energy.

Dutton: “I just want a conversation about nuclear.”

Advisor. “OK. It’s way more expensive than the alternatives, slower to build and no one wants it in their backyard.”

Dutton: “No, I want a different conversation.”

 

[QuietB]

I think some of our politicians are a bit slow on the uptake. First with ‘same sex marriage’ and now with promoting renewable energy.

Dutton: “I just want a conversation about nuclear.”

Advisor. “OK. It’s way more expensive than the alternatives, slower to build and no one wants it in their backyard.”

Dutton: “No, I want a different conversation.”

If the Liberals exceed at anything, it is doubling down.

 

[Gough]

I think some of our politicians are a bit slow on the uptake. First with ‘same sex marriage’ and now with promoting renewable energy.

Dutton: “I just want a conversation about nuclear.”

Advisor. “OK. It’s way more expensive than the alternatives, slower to build and no one wants it in their backyard.”

Dutton: “No, I want a different conversation.”

You'd have thought that seeing how the Coalition had more energy policies than Spinal Tap had drummers during their time in government they might have mentioned nuclear just once.

 

[Pessimistic]

The libs were an energy policy blackhole

 

[FredLeDeux]

You'd have thought that seeing how the Coalition had more energy policies than Spinal Tap had drummers during their time in government they might have mentioned nuclear just once.

Couldn't go for the nuclear zombie until they got a zombie as leader.

 

[Father Jack]

You'd think they'd realise that coming up with any you beaut policy ideas at this point only makes people wonder what the hell they were doing for the nine years they were in government

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Rob R]

Surprised it is that close given Albo has done well with only a few mistakes and Dutton has stuffed it all up and then we have Scummo making it worse

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