Jake Waterman Amnesty

[eaglevision]

In January this year I stated;

“Waterman and Maric would get ragdolled by 2nd KPD of decent size and oppo will figure out to drop a player into the space and crowd to stop the leads. Oscar is the only contested marking target and we become predictable.”

I just want to apologise to everyone on the board and most importantly Jake and his family for my ignorant and ill informed remarks. They felt right at the time but now I look and feel like a monkey banging cymbals together at a circus. I regret my poor choice of words and will cheer loudly for the Loosh every time the ball is delivered to him in a contested situation and Jake…

I was wrong.

 

[Natho]

Isn't it funny what consistency does to your form and fitness. He has been in cracking touch so far this season. His hands are ridiculously good.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Accurate then, accurate now.



Waterman > the captain


Correct


Also correct


Called it


And the campaigner's still campaigning

Waterman

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Very promising indeed

 

[donpyke92]

Love this. Love the song which is something I never thought I’d say

Fantastic.
Love the toon, always been a fan of the band, The Fratellis. Those old enough to remember the movie, The Goonies, will know where the name came from.
Jake is certainly the Dagger atm, cuts oppo up in so many ways
#an interview with Jake W preseason/early season? that someone posted was very good, where he said his illness gave him a better insight into his career and was a driver for getting the best out of himself.
For his benefit, and ours as fans, I'm very happy for him

 

[LittleFires]

I remember during the preseason there was a real discussion about who would take the final tall forward spot in the team out of Maric and Waterman.

Seemed to be a consensus that Allen, Darling and Bailey Williams would form our tall forwards, with room for only one of Maric and Waterman.

Flynn and Allen going down has certainly changed things, but what a difference a few months can make. Even the thought of him being on the fringe now is just laughable.

 

[carlyp]

They used to call him Junk time Jake... he's now Prime time Snake

 

[Priddis Is Done]

Love the title of the thread. Amnesty. Absolutely brilliant.

And thank the gods he's one player I've never potted. Semi makes up for the other 20 + i have over the last 10 / 20 years

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Love the title of the thread. Amnesty. Absolutely brilliant.

And thank the gods he's one player I've never potted. Semi makes up for the other 20 + i have over the last 10 / 20 years

Going through my posts where I've mentioned Waterman, 90% of them for about a year or so was ranting and raving why the player taken last in his draft year is comprehensively outperforming the spud we took in the first round.

 

[wce4premiership]

Looking back and a lot of my early comments about Waterman. Never done this for any players before it's an interesting exercise.

2018

• Too good for WAFL but we're upsetting team balance bringing him in.
• Heart and effort but not good in transition kicking behind the mark.
• Clean below his knees, don't like kicking action, only one trajectory on the kick
• Rotham and Waterman thinking they can turn out of tackles but constantly get pinged.
• More comments about tackling and good leads but poor kicking action (field kicking).
• "I don't think Waterman was ever a lock in the best 22. Waterman's desire will take him far I'm sure, Allen looks the more natural player (admittedly I've seen SFA) but eventually there will be room for both."
• Waterman not a replacement for Lecras.

Most of the comments came from "Changes" threads, to be expected for those on the fringe, others came from gameday threads.


2019

• "Waterman I'd also probably have towards the lower end of the skills department in kicking, but all his other skills seem to be working fine."
• "Sometimes it's hard having the Allens, Watson, Waterman and Brander in the wings when you know they could potentially all be very handy, unfortunately a few of them are fighting for the same positions"
• "I actually like Masten and Waterman more and more after reading a new hungrytiger post and want them to succeed."
• Complaints about Allen, Waterman and Brander not having agility to change direction and apply defensive pressure.
• "Who does Waterman think he is?" (turns out it's Fevola).
• "Waterman just seems a bit lacking in talent compared to Venables, Brander and Allen"
• Comments about Brander being better suited to the wing if we need to play a tall there - much higher ceiling.
• Comments on Waterman being the most similar in style to replace Lecras by creating space for JK/Darling
• "Waterman should be given another chance, I say that as someone who isn't his biggest advocate in general but I feel like he can and will help the forwards get more space."
• "I think it's good to reward WAFL form, but Waterman plays two different roles across AFL and WAFL so it's hard for him. I'm not an advocate for him being in the team as I don't like his field kicking but I assume the coaches know he works hard, does the team things..."
• "I'm still not sure we need Waterman instead of another small, even though I think he has what it takes, on days like today you just have to wonder"

2020

• "Waterman - Heart and soul type, was awesome to see him steady the ship down back for us."
• Quoting someone re Waterman "He isn't undroppable simply because of the amount of talent we have as key position players. I love him, he isn't amazingly talented but he knows where to be and that is hard to teach. He has the brain for it."
• "Not that teams play as listed, but I like seeing Waterman on the wing and Brander as the forward flanker. Waterman's toughness will be better down back, Brander's skills below the knees better in the forward half"

2021

• "Also loved Waterman's game, the sort of game that is meant for him, played with heart and desire"
• "Waterman I consider as more of a mid height player. So when I think of dropping a tall my first thought was Williams, because Waterman doesn't really play that tall. I feel like Snake can play that roaming HFF role "
• "Redden, much like Waterman, has done some great stuff, but some putrid stuff as well"
• "Waterman too, good tackling and he may not be the best footballer, but he at least has half a brain and can read the play well"
• A number of comments about Waterman not fighting with Williams for a spot as he isn't a 2nd ruck, should be fighting Cripps, Petch, Langdon West for HFF spots, not the answer in the ruck over Williams.

2022

• "This will benefit Waterman who is too undersized to be Darling's main partner full time."
• More comments about Rotham and Waterman not being good lateral movers but still trying to side-step tacklers.

I didn't post much in 22/23.

General theme of posting in changes threads trying to see where Waterman can best be fit into a team that appeared to lack small forwards and wingers. A lot of the time it's in roles he wasn't suited to but he tried hard. Had a purple patch as the 3rd tall where he'd kick 2 a game with a bad defender.

Liked - heart and soul, chases, tackles, set shots, footy brain, team player.
Disliked - Poor field kicks, poor lateral movement, no spot for him with JK, Darling, Allen.

 

[sharps24]

Not sure if this has been posted before but as of now Waterman has played more games than Oscar and has kicked 10 less goals. Be interesting to see how they compare in a few weeks and who actually has the better claim on the FF position.

We've only really seen Oscar down there for one season, and while he was very good I don't think he's proven he can play at the level Waterman has played at these last 2 months. Oscar averaged 2.3 goals a game in his stint at FF and Jake is currently averaging 3 goals a game. Personally I hope we leave Jake at FF and play Oscar at CHF and then structure the half dozen other tall forwards in the team around that.

J-trains stats,

Games Kicks Hand Balls Disposals Marks Goals Behinds Tackles Hit Outs

94*​

796​

290​

1086​

532​

109​

59​

144​

29​

Oscars,

83*​

564​

261​

825​

344​

119​

62​

181​

160​

Edit: Drafted a year apart but both debuted in 2018. Jakes a year older.

 

[stallon]

Not sure if this has been posted before but as of now Waterman has played more games than Oscar and has kicked 10 less goals. Be interesting to see how they compare in a few weeks and who actually has the better claim on the FF position.

We've only really seen Oscar down there for one season, and while he was very good I don't think he's proven he can play at the level Waterman has played at these last 2 months. Oscar averaged 2.3 goals a game in his stint at FF and Jake is currently averaging 3 goals a game. Personally I hope we leave Jake at FF and play Oscar at CHF and then structure the half dozen other tall forwards in the team around that.

To be fair to Oscar, his stint as the main forward coincided with us being the worst team ever to play AFL, while Waterman has at least some sort of occasionally competitive team kicking to him

 

[sharps24]

To be fair to Oscar, his stint as the main forward coincided with us being the worst team ever to play AFL, while Waterman has at least some sort of occasionally competitive team kicking to him

This is true, but also Oscar had the benefit of basically being our only focus up forward last year and this year we've spread the load around a lot better.

 

[stallon]

This is true, but also Oscar had the benefit of basically being our only focus up forward last year and this year we've spread the load around a lot better.

We are a LOT better, spreading the load helps Jake as hes 1v1 most of the time. Last year teams knew Oscar was the only guy so he got double teamed constantly.

 

[THE A5]

This is true, but also Oscar had the benefit of basically being our only focus up forward last year and this year we've spread the load around a lot better.

He was getting doubled and tripled teamed most of the time. Our current forward line actually looks potent and even JD is playing better.

oscar spent a great chunk of last season in top bit of the coleman tally.

I genuinely don’t get why fans are getting hyper fixated on the FF/CHF roles tbh. Jk/JD spent over a decade together and they constantly floated between the two.

 

[sharps24]

He was getting doubled and tripled teamed most of the time. Our current forward line actually looks potent and even JD is playing better.

oscar spent a great chunk of last season in top bit of the coleman tally.

I genuinely don’t get why fans are getting hyper fixated on the FF/CHF roles tbh. Jk/JD spent over a decade together and they constantly floated between the two.

Kennedy was a better forward than JD always but the reason he kicked more goals had a lot to do with playing FF. They are definitely different roles and I think it makes a difference who plays which.

JD is playing better because he is working harder, in his own words after the first few games this season he was afraid Simmo was going to drop him and has since pulled his finger out. I don't think we've seen him try this hard since 2012.

Anyway I just thought it was an interesting comparison of stats given up until a couple of weeks ago most people here thought of Waterman as a fringe player and by contrast Allen is perceived by most as some kind of god level player. Given how they both started in 2018 it's interesting to look at their career stats and see that Waterman has put runs on the board too. I like em both, but prefer Allen further up the ground. And Jake being based closer to goal is what seems to have allowed him to start kicking bags. Think we should try that first and see how it goes. If that's being hyper fixated then ok.

JD is going to be an interesting one as this will be the first time since 2011 he's not going to be 2nd banana. I think he's been our best pressure forward over the past month [easily] so am looking forward to him engaging in mortal combat with Cripps to hold his spot from here.

 

[sharps24]

We are a LOT better, spreading the load helps Jake as hes 1v1 most of the time. Last year teams knew Oscar was the only guy so he got double teamed constantly.

I agree that better delivery results in kicking more goals but don't really buy into this myth that teams play 2-3 blokes on the most dangerous forward, even for the shittest sides. I think if you look at how full forwards kick most of their goals, it comes from taking marks on the lead and this is done 1v1, including for Oscar last year. They take their grabs by having separation on the defender and leading into space. When they take the ball [ideally inside 50] it's virtually uncontested, as properly executed even with a fullback on your tail this routine play is undefendable. Whoever is playing FF is starting more of their leads from closer to goal, so ends up taking more of their marks closer to goal, so ends up with more goals than the other forwards.

No-one is leading out of the square with 3 players trailing behind hoping to make a spoil. So Oscar wasn't beating 2 or 3 defenders for most of his shots on goal, though he would have at times been dealing with more than one defender. He may have been getting less supply that Jake is this year and that's a fair point, but I don't think you can say his the shots he took were harder to get. And Jake has taken some pretty decent clunks from inside packs as well this year.

Obviously when the ball is bombed forward, then yeah it's different to being on the lead and whichever forward is closest to the ball is going to be dealing with all of the defenders in the area converging to that spot. FF is probably going to cop the higher % of these situations too. This doesn't mean that Oscar has 3 players playing on him it just means there are 3 defenders zoning off in the area who have the time to get to the contest. And those scenarios [outside of occasional pack marks] rarely result in goals for key forwards so they are not really relevant. The key forwards job in that scenario is to bring the ball to ground and allow a cumbers to get to work. This is arguably Oscars greatest weakness compared to Waterman because he's always flying for crazy pack marks and hurting himself, whereas Jake has been thinking these situations through a bit better it seems.

 

[stallon]

I agree that better delivery results in kicking more goals but don't really buy into this myth that teams play 2-3 blokes on the most dangerous forward, even for the shittest sides. I think if you look at how full forwards kick most of their goals, it comes from taking marks on the lead and this is done 1v1, including for Oscar last year.

Is this true though? A decent portion are but a good chunk are contested marks against an opponent.

The opposition didnt literally put 2 guys marking Allen, thats not what we are saying, but their spare/interceptor knew exactly where it was going most of the time, makes it very easy to cut it off or impact the marking contest. Opponent defenders didnt care about what Darling/West/Petch/whoever did last year, they were never a threat.
You see it now with Larkey if you ever watched a North game, Larkey cant get a kick because teams just sit multiple guys on him, they know he is the only target down there.

They take their grabs by having separation on the defender and leading into space. When they take the ball [ideally inside 50] it's virtually uncontested, as properly executed even with a fullback on your tail this routine play is undefendable. Whoever is playing FF is starting more of their leads from closer to goal, so ends up taking more of their marks closer to goal, so ends up with more goals than the other forwards.

Leads are still able to be impacted by any half decent 3rd man/interceptor

Obviously when the ball is bombed forward, then yeah it's different to being on the lead and whichever forward is closest to the ball is going to be dealing with all of the defenders in the area converging to that spot. FF is probably going to cop the higher % of these situations too. This doesn't mean that Oscar has 3 players playing on him it just means there are 3 defenders zoning off in the area who have the time to get to the contest.

This is what having multiple opponents means, every time the ball comes in they bring multiple guys to affect the contest.
Our midfield was garbage so could never get decent entries, they were all high bombs, making it the easiest thing ever to just cruise over and spoil.

You underestimate the impact of a halfway capable midfield and other marking targets in a forward line can do to make the forwards life easier

 

[MrWoollie]

To be fair to Oscar, his stint as the main forward coincided with us being the worst team ever to play AFL, while Waterman has at least some sort of occasionally competitive team kicking to him

This is true, but also Oscar had the benefit of basically being our only focus up forward last year and this year we've spread the load around a lot better.

Let's be honest here.

Oscar came onto the scene as a bit of a surprise (most thought mid 20s) and has been the best KPF of his cohort. Injuries and playing for a carp team aside, he'd be snapped up by every team in the comp.

Jake was always that in betweener. I hate to say it, but his sickness has been the making of him. An absolute revelation on return.

Let's not compare them and just be thankful that in a rubbish team we have both of them. Hopefully that is one position out of about 10 that we are not embarrassingly bad.

Personally, exceptionally happy we have both of them on our list. How much worse would it have been without them?

 

[sharps24]

Is this true though? A decent portion are but a good chunk are contested marks against an opponent.

The opposition didnt literally put 2 guys marking Allen, thats not what we are saying, but their spare/interceptor knew exactly where it was going most of the time, makes it very easy to cut it off or impact the marking contest. Opponent defenders didnt care about what Darling/West/Petch/whoever did last year, they were never a threat.
You see it now with Larkey if you ever watched a North game, Larkey cant get a kick because teams just sit multiple guys on him, they know he is the only target down there.

Leads are still able to be impacted by any half decent 3rd man/interceptor

This is what having multiple opponents means, every time the ball comes in they bring multiple guys to affect the contest.
Our midfield was garbage so could never get decent entries, they were all high bombs, making it the easiest thing ever to just cruise over and spoil.

You underestimate the impact of a halfway capable midfield and other marking targets in a forward line can do to make the forwards life easier

People used to complain that Kennedy had two blokes hanging off him all the time when we were in our last premiership phase and that was in a forward line including Darling, Le Cras, Rioli, Ryan. I think you are just describing forward lines as they are. Tall forwards kick most of their goals when finding space on the lead 1v1 with their defender. When that doesn't work out due to not offering a lead or because of poor delivery, the zone defence will get them and people think they have multiple guys playing on them. A spare defender plugging a hole isn't an extra guy playing on them either, and the smartest forwards will lead somewhere that player can't impact them.

Some interesting stats regarding last year:

In our only 100 point game, Waterman kicked 4 and Allen 2.

JD has already had as many games this year where he's kicked 0 goals [4] as he did in all last year. And his goals per game average is lower this year.

Even though we lost multiple games by more than 100 in 2023, we only scored less than 40 points in 4 games. We've already had 3 games in 2024 where we scored less than 40.

We kicked more than 10 goals in 14 games last year and given Oscars biggest bag was 4 he wasn't exactly our only avenue to goal. JD's best return was 3 but kicked 2 or more in 8 games, Cripps had a bag of 5, which was our peak solo effort.

In our wins, Waterman was our highest scorer vs GWS with 4 to Allens 2, Cripps had 5 to Allens 3 against the Bulldogs, and against the Kangaroos Cripps and Allen both had 2 each.

Allen's season was a great season because played every game, and kicked goals every game. He just ticked along at 2-4 goals a game and was wonderfully consistent. We still had a pretty even spread of goal kickers, but Cripps and Waterman missed big chunks of the season and Darling missed 3 but played with a broken arm for half the season so Allen was the only one who put a whole season together. Whether those guys were there or not there didn't really change Allens output, he had 0 games where being a true sole target like Larkey resulted in big bags. Larkey kicked 5's 6's and a 9 on multiple occasions.

You say our delivery was rubbish last year compared to this year but last year we had Shuey and Hurn in the side and career best years out of Witherden, Hunt and Kelly. We've replaced that with Yeo, who's basically a long bomb to the square guy, and Harley who makes a difference for sure but has he alone hit more i50 targets than Shuey and Hurn did last year?

To be honest I think our best this year has been better than last year but we've still have plenty of big losses, and even though last year we were terrible the problem outside of a handful of games was not so much that we couldn't score but that we couldn't defend. We were kicking 60-90 points but the opposition were hitting 100 and in in many cases blowing way past that.

Allen wasn't a one man forward line in 2023. Waterman isn't sitting on easy street in 2024. Whats best for the team is both playing together and I'm sure that'll mean Jake loses his spot to Oscar. Maybe 2023 Allen vs 2024 Waterman will be the only true comparison we'll ever have and I think if you break it down Waterman still gets the chocolates even though people think this year we're a completely different side.

 

[PepperTom32]

Fantastic.
Love the toon, always been a fan of the band, The Fratellis. Those old enough to remember the movie, The Goonies, will know where the name came from.
Jake is certainly the Dagger atm, cuts oppo up in so many ways
#an interview with Jake W preseason/early season? that someone posted was very good, where he said his illness gave him a better insight into his career and was a driver for getting the best out of himself.
For his benefit, and ours as fans, I'm very happy for him

I think Whatta Man by salt-n-pepa would be an excellent, toungue-in-cheek song choice for Jake’s goals.

But yeah, love the Fratellis, Henrietta also a great tune.

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

I remember at the end of last year Sumich strongly criticising the club for more or less giving Waterman the middle finger in contract negotiations and seeming to be quite happy to get rid of him and push him out the door if he decided he wanted to go to another club as a result.

And the usual crew of morons on here that raucously laughed at Sumich and slagged off Waterman (and the handful of posters who were agreeing with him that Waterman still had potential and was too good to give away).

I haven't seen any of those people admit that they were wrong on here yet, or that Waterman is not a spud to be pushed out the door and or that Sumich's judgement of the potential of players far surpasses theirs..